Black Hole on the Black Sea

Inside Georgia's nuclear bazaar.

BY SHARON WEINBERGER | MAY 5, 2010

Last fall, I boarded a ramshackle bus winding through the villages and vineyards on the Georgian side of the demarcation line with the breakaway region of South Ossetia. I was there to see what I could learn about the dangers of nuclear smuggling.

Even before Georgia's disastrous war with Russia in August 2008, South Ossetia was something of a no-man's land. Controlled by a self-declared government and militia of irregulars, it had become a smuggling haven for the illegal trade in alcohol, cigarettes, and drugs that supported the local economy. "It's hugely problematic," a senior Western diplomat in Tbilisi told me of the breakaway regions. "They provide havens for human trafficking and nuclear smuggling."

South Ossetia is precisely the kind of jurisdictional "black hole" that experts say poses such a great risk to nuclear proliferation. In fact, in an announcement that was largely ignored during the recent Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. President Mikheil Saakashvili revealed that in March, Georgia had once again intercepted smugglers with weapons-grade uranium, the country's eighth such bust in the last decade.

Although the Georgian government has not elaborated on the case, the country's smuggling problems have long been linked to the two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (a third breakaway region, Ajaria, has since been brought back under Georgian control). The territories, which are recognized as independent states only by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and the tiny Pacific island of Nauru, have presented a strategic conundrum when it comes to border security.

Georgia does not recognize them as separate regions, so there are no formal border checkpoints. Yet without access to the regions' external borders, Georgia also cannot police what comes in and out. Seizures of weapons-grade material are still rare enough -- and dangerous enough -- that such news would normally capture headlines. But overshadowed by the events of the summit, the Georgian president's announcement was initially picked up by only a handful of outlets. Saakashvili wasn't even able to get a personal meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama on the summit's sidelines.

KAZBEK BASSAYAEV/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: NUKES, CAUCASUS
 

Sharon Weinberger is co-author with Nathan Hodge of A Nuclear Family Vacation: Travels in the World of Atomic Weaponry. She traveled to Georgia in the fall of 2009 as an International Reporting Project fellow.

MALICEIT

12:17 AM ET

May 6, 2010

another one...

another pile of PR known as "save me, I'm drowning!!!". Georgia tries so hard to push US into helping them with their republics even to the point of linking trade of nuclear materials with "that damn russian bear". But on a bright side: with all color revolution making a massive anti-American leap with their new presidents, his tern i will guess will be next.

 

IAN

10:50 AM ET

May 6, 2010

How much smuggling is happening?

While linking the smuggling to the Russians is 99.9% false, the fact is they still catch nuclear smugglers. Considering they've caught 8 in the last 4 years or so, how many have made it through, I wonder? And where has this successful smuggling gone?

 

MEKHONGKURT

11:13 PM ET

May 6, 2010

Nuclear materiel and Blind Man's Bluff

If this article is correct, the "nuclear bazaars " in Georgia and Turkey are relatively of small concern, at least in comparison to nuclear materials missing from official stockpiles.

I read awhile back how much such official nuclear materials, though I don't recall the amount, other than it was surprisingly (to me, anyway) large. If the nuclear bazaars are relatively unimportant -- and I may well be wrong in that assessment; perhaps another reader with more knowledge can shed further light on that -- then perhaps missing official stores are of graver concern.

I wonder if there are channels through which countries with nuclear capabilities, in the areas of both military and civilian use, exchange information. If there aren't such channels. at least unofficial, off-the-record ones, one has to wonder, "Why not?"

Assuming there's no formal structure in place, would it be beneficial to establish an international working group that included forensic *accountants* among other kinds of experts. Maybe forensic accountants with employment backgrounds using their skills in law enforcement, military, or intelligence backgrounds.

I also wonder how well, if at all, the sales and movement of rocket systems are monitored. It's surprisingly easy and inexpensive to build a fairly small surface-to-surface missile with an appreciable payload capability. I used to fly small (very small) model rockets when I was much younger, but I bet I could do a bit of reading to refresh myself and build such a missile, and that anyone could. And that's reason to pause and reflect. Imagine the bad guys getting their hands on such a missile with even just a 10- or 20-mile range *and* having access to the material necessary to construct a dirty bomb one using conventional explosives to spread radioactive material). I'm quite certain relevant authorities think about this all the time; my only real question regards what they're doing about it.

Finally, I also wonder about current command-and-control systems in various nuclear-armed countries' military forces. During the Cold War, for example, Soviet field commanders down, as I recall, to the division level could make the decision on their own -- without higher confirming higher authority -- to use tactical nuclear weapons such as nuclear artillery shells. Obviously, the record shows that no such Soviet commander ever went rogue and fired such artillery but such low-level authority was worrisome. (I was in ROTC during the early and mid-1970's, and this was something that came up in our military science studies fairly routinely.) Just one -- one! -- such shell, if actually fired, would cause widespread shock and even panic.

Perhaps the U.S.'s disclosure a few days ago of how many active, deployed nuclear weapons we have will help. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

ADRIAN888

1:19 AM ET

June 4, 2010

Well written

Well written post. Thanks for sharing.world best news headlines.