Lula's Tehran Misadventure

In the last days of his tenure, the Brazilian president is reaching for his crowning foreign-policy glory. Will it go horribly, horribly wrong?

BY PAULO SOTERO | MAY 11, 2010

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva heads to Tehran this week, a sort of victory lap for what he hopes will be a monumental piece of foreign policy: bringing Iran's leadership to the nuclear negotiating table. Last week, Tehran agreed "in principle" to Brazil and Turkey's offer to facilitate talks on an agreement proposed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last October. Should that initiative succeed, it will surely be remembered as Lula's crowning achievement.

But many are beginning to wonder if Lula can truly be the darling of the West while also wooing the East. Lula's administration has pitched the talks to Iran not as a way to come clean but as a way to prove that it is hiding nothing with its peaceful nuclear program -- and the United States and Europe are understandably skeptical. Back home, questions have arisen about the Brazilian leader's motivation for injecting himself and his country in such a daring initiative in the first place. It's certainly not about domestic politics; if anything, cozying up to Iran is losing Lula points at home. As his presidential term comes to an end, Lula's move might be more about building a legacy on the world stage than much of anything else. And it may well backfire.

Given Brazil's recent rise as a regional and a global player, it might come as a surprise that foreign policy and Iran policy in particular have been a source of criticism rather than praise for Lula's government back at home. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Brasilia last November was greeted with street protests and strong condemnation by the media and Lula's political opponents. José Serra, then São Paulo's governor and now a leading presidential candidate, criticized the president for embracing a dictator reminiscent of the military regime Lula and Serra -- themselves victims of political persecution -- fought to dislodge from power a quarter-century ago.

Subsequent Brazilian visits to Tehran had a similar effect. The image of a smiling Brazilian minister of commerce offering the national soccer team's revered yellow jersey to Ahmadinejad in Tehran last month caused discomfort even among Lula's allies. Clovis Rossi, a columnist and early supporter of Lula's foreign policy, wrote that the Brazilian soccer jersey is now "covered with blood" from Iranian dissidents killed by the Islamic government. A member of Lula's own Workers' Party spoke to me privately of his apprehension about Brazil's rapprochement with the Iranian regime, which he sees as a foreign-policy "exaggeration."

Leading names of Brazil's foreign-policy community have offered equally harsh assessments. In an interview with Brazil's UOL news, veteran diplomat Rubens Ricupero, a historian and former ambassador to Washington, described Brazil's self-initiated overture to Iran as symptomatic of a foreign policy driven by "the constant search for the spotlight."

EVARISTO SA/AFP/Getty Images

 

Paulo Sotero is director of the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.

TOMAS ROSA BUENO

7:52 PM ET

May 11, 2010

A safe bet

An article that relies on Ricupero and Lampreia as the only "experts" on Brazilian foreign policy cannot be taken seriously. Both were ministers in the previous administration. Both are members of the main opposition party, the PSDB. Both are known for being permanently available for criticism and willing to take advantage of *any* opportunity to badmouth the current administration's policies.

The author of this article, being apparently knowledgeable in things Brazilian, could not ignore this fact. If he chooses to give voice only to notorious opponents of Brazil's foreign policy, he can only be doing that for a reason. His readers, on the other hand, based on their own U.S. experience, may think that members of a country's foreign service will keep a certain objectivity when speaking of current policies, or keep their mouth shut if they disagree. And the article's author, as an experienced scholar, cannot ignore this fact either. Put one pretended ignorance next to the other, and what you get is bad faith.

This said, *any* foreign policy initiative has a fair share of risk. Nothing can be taken for granted when dealing with foreign parties in situations over which one does not have full control. However, given all the facts, and given Iran's detractors track record of falsely accusing other countries of WMD possession for unavowable ends, Lula's bet seems a safe one: Iran's nuclear program does *not* have military ramifications; and; though the Iranians may have a certain Persian stubbornness and (highly justifiable) mistrust in their dealings with the "West", it's highly likely they *do* want to find a peaceful solution out of this situation.

Brazil's and Turkey's mediation, carried out against the will of those who seem *not* to be interested in a solution that does not involve punishing Iran, may be just the way to end a crisis that is potentially the most dangerous of our time.

 

BRENNO SARQUES

9:16 PM ET

May 11, 2010

Another side of the fact

The brazilian media and also the international one seem to love criticizing the brazilian president`s effort to show a different way to solve and historical problem: east x west relations. Many were angry about the iranian president`s visit in our land last november, but three weeks before Lula also received Benjamin Netanyahu in his gabinet, and nobody said a word. Maybe most reporters don`t know (or just look like) the way Israel built his nuclear program, (as we say here in Brazil, "under the table"). It's also true the dictatorial regime witch rules Iran, but we also must recognize Isrel is not at all a peacefull country. So why not an approach to the iranian's government?

There is much more interest in this approach than we read on the papers. Iran is a big market. That's just one. The biggest brazilian foreign policy goal is to set the country as a permanent member of the Security Council, and this approach can also "open doors" in the middle east to gain support in a future dispute, who knows?

And if Iran has a real intention to product nuclear weapons? Is it Brazil`s guilt? Of course not. Brazil has less interest in war than any other big country who already plays a big role in the FP.

 

LUIZ

6:24 AM ET

May 12, 2010

Well, we heard the "half-empty glass" approach

Surely the author does not lie: there are risks involved in Brazil's movement in defense of negotiations with Iran rather than the usual "sanction-and-then-bomb-them" U.S. diplomacy (if you could call that diplomacy...)

But there is also the 'half-full-glass' view...

Not only Brazil and Turkey favor negotiations over sanctions in Iran`s case.

China, Russia and the vast majority of medium and smaller nations defend talking over intimidating.

Maybe the author should talk to some other fellows down at the UN assembly rather than giving voice (and spotlights!) to 'former' brazillian government members, who are in open campaign for the october upcoming election in Brazil.

How impartial can they be?

Lula takes a risk? yes, but this should not be seen as a reckless adventure, but as a strategic move and the author should be looking for the motivations - the REAL agenda - behind that.

And I have a feeling it is not about international spotlight...

 

NORBOOSE

2:34 PM ET

May 12, 2010

God, youre useless

You clearly compare America to some imaginary country. America has all the bad characteristics. Russia and China love talking! To Tibetans, to Uighurs, to Chechneyans, to Georgians. Yes, only America does bad things. Please confine future ramblings to things that exist.

 

LUIZ

7:36 AM ET

May 13, 2010

I`m sorry if I sounded

I`m sorry if I sounded agressive towards the USA. That was not the point here.
I was only trying to express ANOTHER possible vision on the subjects addressed by the author. Of course China and Russia have their agenda and it clearly involves the things you describe.
But you can`t ignore what happened in Iraq, Afeganistan and then defend the same course of action towards Iran.
Also, when someone tries to sell the 'sanctions' discourse as a consensus, (s)he is clearly misleading his/her readers, since not only Brazil, but several other nations in the U.N., disagree with that.
I think the author gives voice and 'spotlight' to the political opposition party in Brazil in the year of election and that does not help depicting the real situation - or the motives - behind Brazil/Iran`s relationship.
It probably has more to do with commercial agreements and the revision of the NPT than with Lula's hunger for international attention.

 

RANDAL

11:27 AM ET

May 14, 2010

No need to apologise, Luiz

I don't know why you felt the need to say you were sorry, Luiz. What you said in your original post was totally reasonable, perfectly polite and probably correct.

The "Norboose" character simply waded in with crude abuse ("God you're useless") because he, it seems, can't cope with the truth, or even with civil dialogue. And they wonder where the "ugly American" stereotype comes from.....

Please, Luiz, don't treat the likes of "Norboose" with kid gloves.

Regarding the original piece, Mr Tomas Rosa Bueno's opinion sounds pretty convincing to me, as well as yours regarding the situation in general.

 

PEDRO ROSA

10:10 AM ET

May 12, 2010

Brazil's search for the spotlight

Brazil's foreign policy has been a source of discussion in the last few months (see here, for example: http://www.ipris.org/?menu=6&page=57), since it is unclear how do you fit in this approach towards Iran with Brasilia's ambitions towards a permanent seat in the Security Council. Is is far from clear if Brazil is following the right path and strategy. I doubt...

 

IAN

4:04 PM ET

May 12, 2010

Even if its only temporary...

but it works to get Iran to the table, imagine the international clout Lula will have after his Brazilian Presidency. Would anyone say no the person who not only single-handidly brought Brazil to the fron of the world stage, but also has the "I brought Iran itself to the nuclear table talks" coup in his back pocket if, say, he wanted some prominent job in the UN...? Even if it only works short term and the US and Iranian intransigence break it up again, he's set to start his next job wherever the hell he wants.

Can we say Brazilian UN SecGen in 5 years or so? Or at the very minimum, somewhere near the top of UN Foreign Policy.

 

SIDROCK23

2:52 PM ET

May 13, 2010

Brazil leading by example.

who cares what the west thinks? who cares what a bunch of impealistic, colonizing, white, anglo saxons think? they must think that the era of slavery must still exists, because they still want people to what they want. countries like China, India, Brazil,Japan,Iran, etc, all have a much more proud and longer history then the likes of the U.S.A or israel, or even the europeans. They should be free to do as they please as long as it is not hurting anyone. and for all the talk of iran being such a huge threat, how many countries have the iranians invaded or bombed? how many governments have they over thrown and how many countries have they colonized? the end of racist western imperilsim is over.

 

POLITICAL SCIENTIST

11:46 AM ET

May 14, 2010

Iran's Nuclear Program

Notwithstanding obvious shill pieces like Paulo Sotero's article above, the world recognizes that the "Western" governments leading the propaganda attack against Iran (USA, UK, Israel) lost their credibility and moral leadership through their wild lies and misrepresentations used by them to "justify" the immoral, illegal and totally unjustified invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the rampant massacre of millions of defenceless innocents there.

Iran is a member of the IAEA and has permitted UN inspectors on numerous occasions to confirm that its nuclear plants are indeed being used for their authorized missions of power generation and the production of medical isotopes. Iran does NOT have nuclear weapons, and is not building them.
Even US intelligence and military agencies have recognized these facts in several investigative reports.

In contrast, the USA has thousands of nuclear warheads, and is the only country in the world to have ever used them, on the civilian populations of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Israel has an estimated 200 nuclear weapons, as well as the largest US-funded military force in the Middle East, and a history of engaging in aggressive wars against its neighbors.

Sotero and his ilk are part of the raging war mongers who lied us into those unjustified wars. In a court of law, their statements would have zero credibility. Why should any rational being believe them?

Of course, it would be highly inconvenient for the war mongers to have the world know that Iran is in fact "innocent", while its accusers are demonstrated war criminals.

 

GENT

4:40 PM ET

May 15, 2010

2+2=?

I think people should be thankful to president Lula for attempt to find compromise in the situation. But I also think the compromise cannot be found. Control of Middle East on the table - this is too high stake. Its oil adds value. USA already have paid huge price - two expensive wars and financial crisis. They are never refused to reach the objective. Therefore actual decision of Iran is insignificant. Nuclear weapon is only casus belli because Iranian government are not insanes, they lead 74 million nation. Words used by USA and Israel are simply rough propaganda and article of PAULO SOTERO, paid by them, is obvious case. Semi-truth and deft manipulation of facts work wonders )) 2+2=5

 

MUSTNOTSLEEP14

8:28 PM ET

May 16, 2010

Empty Threats

Brazil will lose power and influence on the world stage? Please. Brazil was a non-entity on the world's foreign policy stage before this incident. Any initiative, however misguided, is obviously a step up from absolutely nothing. And the US is going to shun Brazil? Oh really? The economic downsides of such a move would be a major blow to the US and will just lead France, Russia, India, China etc to take advantage of the lucrative Brazilian market.

There is nothing to see here, just some time wasting by Iran, Brazil and Turkey. The US-Israeli side isnt particularly convincing either, and I would expect an insurrection within Obama's own party if he decided to invade and occupy Iran. Already many on the left feel deserted by his eerily Bush-like policies.

 

LAL QILA

10:51 PM ET

May 16, 2010

Poor choice of the title

Perhaps a better title would be Lula's Tehran Adventure

Lula has his heart in the right place. He is doing the right thing to avert another Israeli/American war against yet another Muslim country.

Long live Lula. More power to him.

 

LAL QILA

2:07 PM ET

May 17, 2010

Brazil, Turkey and Iran find a solution

Brazil, Turkey and Iran find a solution to the imaginary bomb of Iran, but the Christian Zionist mouthpieces of France, America and of course Israel dismiss it out of hand.

Was any other reaction from the chelas of Israel expected? Nay, they said what was rehearsed.

 

N8RILEY

2:58 PM ET

May 22, 2010

Brazil and Turkey are in

Brazil and Turkey are in danger of bowing to Iran, Russia and China they will be mooning the US and EU. Brazil is going for nukes as well so it makes goos sense to help iran. I hope thing will improve but they will not I say just give up let Israel bomb away. Iran is holding American hikers hostage but the US and Israel are the bad ones killing your opposition while shouting the US sucks and Israel is racist allows you to get away with anything and everything. Why is it that atheist and leftist are Irans biggest supporters in Europe and the US when people with those view are treated to Evin prison in Iran. Lula and Chavez leftist both support Iran as well. My theory is its just enough to say anti-US things to get away with the human rights violations. When will Lula be going to the DPRK to visit Kim Jung-il?

 

ARJUNA

11:28 PM ET

June 7, 2010

Ofcourse, Brazil leading by example

I was thinking of posting something as soon as I read that line. Culturally, the US and Latin America could be seen as more similar than the US and Europe. The Pacific Rim is as East as it gets,current political news but they are much more aligned with the US, than say, Russia (Which may or may not be western, depending on who you ask) I think it has less to do with Israel than you think.

 

ADRIANA WOOTEN

9:43 AM ET

June 10, 2010

Last Chance Before More Nuclear Sanctions

Brazil’s charismatic president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, met Iran’s most-senior leaders yesterday to try to broker an 11th-hour compromise in the increasingly tense stand-off over Tehran’s nuclear programme. Iran hailed this as a significant sign of progress in the negotiations. Mr Erdogan had signalled on Friday that he would not join his foreign minister, Ahmet Davotoglu, in Tehran unless there was the chance of a genuine breakthrough. hp q2612a cartridge/ Mr Ahmadinejad remains in a weak position following his disputed re-election last June. It is doubtful whether he can deliver a deal now – even if he wants to, experts said.

The Ahmadinejad administration in recent weeks has appeared keen to revive the stalled agreement. The US, however, suspects Iran is filibustering in the hope of staving off further sanctions.