What the Heck Is Going on in Thailand?

How a decade of discontent finally blew up in Bangkok.

BY JOSHUA KURLANTZICK | MAY 19, 2010

View a slide show of Bangkok burning.

The idea of Bangkok spiraling into total chaos -- as it has over the past week, with 40 people killed so far in street battles between anti-government protesters and the military -- is shocking to foreigners. Thailand is not Iraq, or Yemen, or Pakistan; as portrayed in endless books, tourism advertisements, and films, it's a lush and peaceful place, the type of country where'd you take a honeymoon rather than a hostage. And until recently, that image was mostly accurate -- for nearly 20 years, Thailand had avoided serious political violence.

But the unrest that has consumed the popular vacation destination since the first spark of violence on April 10 is less surprising to the Thais themselves. Thailand's idyllic image has overshadowed serious tensions that have been building for nearly a decade and finally exploded this month. Thailand's rapid, globalization-driven economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s left out a large portion of the population, primarily those living in the rural north and northeast. By some measures the country actually suffers from worse income inequality than the neighboring Philippines, even though the former is generally thought of as a modernized country and the latter is often viewed as a semi-feudal, Latin American-style economy. But the emerging anger was as much about regional cliquishness as it was about class. Resentment built among Thais who might have been poor, but more importantly felt increasingly alienated from the country's traditionally powerful institutions: the palace, the army, and the civil service, which tended to favor established networks of people from Bangkok schools, Bangkok companies, and Bangkok army training.

Yet even as Thais from the north and northeast, who make up the majority of the population, have suffered economically, over the past decade they have become increasingly politically empowered, diminishing the advantages previously enjoyed only by the elites. The Internet, community radio stations, a reformist constitution passed in 1997, and greater access to secondary education have created a rural population more knowledgeable about their rights, and more able to compare their own situation with that of other countries' citizens. The advent of real democracy after more than six decades of successive military regimes meant that the rural poor, if they united, could vote in a leader more responsive to their concerns.

In 2001, they found their man, and Thaksin Shinawatra, a populist politician and son of the north, was elected prime minister. Thaksin was a billionaire telecommunications tycoon, and clearly interested in using government power, Silvio Berlusconi-style, to help his own family network of companies. But he also launched social programs, like inexpensive national health care and start-up loans to villages, that had an impact. By nearly every calculation, poverty shrank on Thaksin's watch. Those efforts, along with a sophisticated advertising campaign, propelled him to an even larger majority in the 2005 elections.

But like Hugo Chávez and Evo Morales in Latin America, Thaksin leavened his anti-poverty crusades with attempts to roll back the rule of law. He authorized a "war on drugs" that became a pretext for targeted killings of his political opponents, intimidated the Thai media, and undermined governmental institutions such as the courts. His immense popularity also threatened the power of the military and the palace -- particularly King Bhumibhol Adulyadej, Thailand's constitutional monarch, who was supported by the same elites and middle class in Bangkok who disdained Thaksin. In his more than 60 years on the throne, Bhumibhol had built himself into something more than a royal figurehead, accumulating political influence through behind-the-scenes maneuvering and alliance-building in Thailand's elite political and military spheres.

But rather than trying to defeat Thaksin at the ballot box, the anti-Thaksin middle class and elites opted for extraconstitutional means. Protests calling for Thaksin's ouster gave way to calls for the army to intercede; in September 2006 the military obliged, deposing the prime minister in a coup. Thaksin fled into exile, and today lives mostly in Dubai.

BAY ISMOYO/AFP/Getty Images

 

Joshua Kurlantzick is fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

GRANT

7:33 PM ET

May 19, 2010

'Shocking' you say? This has

'Shocking' you say? This has been going on for several years now, I don't see why people should be so surprised at this.

 

TKOENIG

3:26 AM ET

May 20, 2010

Well put

One of the best descriptions of the events leading up to the shocking end (at least of the major street protests) of the Thailand protest.

 

ANDREWDOVER

6:46 PM ET

May 21, 2010

Please address the horrible Red Shirt Acts

Joshua, you are rewritting the same article without considering the plain fact of the destruction of major buildings in Bangkok by the Red shirts. That is not the act of a movement operating for the benefit of any group of Thai people. (Unless you consider terrorism a legitimate tactic.)

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/178453/rioters-burn-27-buildings

** Pattani - A female major, who was a nurse at the Army base here, was shot dead while riding her motorcycle to work.

 

TINGJUST

11:57 AM ET

June 10, 2010

Nice blog. I will keep

Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often. convert mod files | MOD to iPad

 

IAN

12:53 PM ET

May 20, 2010

Excellent article

Portraying both saides and their arguments. No one is a straight up good guy or bad guy. Everyone has stuff under the rug on this and your conclusion is also well thought out and just what is needed.

Too bad no one like to give up power in politics and therefore unless some real cool heads prevail, I don't see this cleaning itself up too fast.

Anon10 suggested power-sharing of some sort. In all honesty, in the last decade, I can't remember a deal like that actually working for more than a year or two. It always seems to break apart rather quickly. Yet it also seems to be the first thing people look towards. I could be wrong, of course, the bad news always gets around faster than the good, so maybe it does work more than not, I don't know. Does anyone have examples of this working to the betterment of the country under its power?

 

ESDEETEE

3:46 PM ET

May 20, 2010

Thanks you

Thank you for writing a crystal clear, concise analysis of the situation in Thailand. So far it's the only one.
I'll keep reading your articles.

 

CALIMRB

9:47 PM ET

May 20, 2010

Pretty Good, and pretty close....

I have heard first hand accounts from my wife's father in the North who went to a voting location at the village-over, and in the field across from the voting booths the Thai Rak Thai party was putting on a music, alcohol and dance party, to booze and dance all night to popular live Thai music, cost of admission, just proof that you voted for the TRT party, as well as similar account from Udon. I have heard of second hand accounts from her friends about even getting cash for votes. So saying that it they were democratically elected with that hanging over them is a stretch. One of the big things the red shirts want is a dissolved parliament and new elections, when the so-called rural and newly educated North and North-East have a history of vote-selling, it makes it little hard to believe that 'they' are not being manipulated, or at the very least having their fires stoked and pointed in certain direction.

You have the Thai Rak Thai that appears to have morphed into the later disbanded People's Power Party, which now may be the Pheu Thai Party and the UDD all of which call for the pardon of Thaksin (who himself is not even recognized as an actual billionaire, because of things like this).

If Bill Gates decided he needed to be President more than he needed to be mega-wealthy who could really challenge him at the ballot box either, only difference is that Bill Gates might be a good guy.

 

MAIGARI

4:13 AM ET

May 21, 2010

Democracy in Thailand and Iran

A very interesting article indeed. after the Iranian election, one person was killed and to date we are reminded of the brytality of the Basij! In Thailand, the people rose aginst an aristocratic elita and the ARMy was used to crush the maovement. In all this supression, the Police seem to have either deliberately bye passed or were simply overlooked . No Western leader has come out ot even express concern! had this been in Iran or any muslim country for that matter, the Westled by the US and the UN Security Council and other Rights grouops would have been up in arma. What a hypocracy.
.

 

TRAVISBR

8:24 AM ET

June 18, 2010

Thailand Democracy

The "red shirt" protesters are mostly supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006 and now lives in self-imposed exile. They are confident of winning the next election. They see Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva as a front for the establishment elite and military who came to power not through the ballot box but through a parliamentary stitch-up in December 2008 when the courts dissolved a pro-Thaksin ruling party. california life insurance quotes Many red shirts believe the graft cases were designed to keep him out of politics after the coup. Not all red shirts back Thaksin unreservedly, but all are angered by the manner of his removal and believe democracy is being systematically undermined by powerful, unelected figures. san diego life ins The red shirts themselves say their campaign is above all a fight for democracy and a battle against Thailand's elite - royal advisers, influential businessmen, military generals and the judiciary, who they say have conspired to overthrow elected governments to maintain their wealth and power.

 

MUSTNOTSLEEP14

11:26 AM ET

May 23, 2010

Has anything good ever come

Has anything good ever come out of an armed peasant uprising? I have no real sympathy for them wanting to take wealth out of Bangkok and distribute it to the rural areas simply because they feel they are due. Because of the free healthcare that Thaksin passed, health resources are increasingly being taken out of Bangkok and going towards the rural areas. This is absurd, communist justice and I for one really hope these uneducated, armed peasants do not win in their quest to replace Thaksin or whoever else will pander to their idiotic desires.