The Wrath of Kan

Can this man clean up Japan's mess?

BY ABRAHAM M. DENMARK, DANIEL M. KLIMAN | JUNE 3, 2010

Should Finance Minister Naoto Kan become Japan's next prime minister on Friday, as most observers predict, it won't be the first time he will have shouldered the responsibility for cleaning up after Yukio Hatoyama. Kan succeeded him as party chairman back in 2002, when Hatoyama resigned over talks he had held with the rival party. Now, Kan seems to be swooping in again in the wake of Hatoyama's sudden resignation, hoping to limit the damage from the outgoing prime minister's disastrous nine months in power. Then as now, Kan boasts more experience in government than his predecessor and a style that could hardly be more different. His hot temper and self-made expertise might be just what Japan needs if it hopes to keep a prime minister for a period of longer than a few months.

Japan urgently needs a strong leader. Less than a year after Hatoyama and his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) swept away half a century of nearly unbroken rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September, their coalition today looks frayed and tired. Hatoyama got bogged down in a disagreement with the United States over where to relocate Futenma, a strategically important U.S. Marine air base on Okinawa. In late May, after months of painful public dithering, he finally signed on to a 2006 agreement hammered out by the previous LDP government -- which provoked a revolt in his governing coalition and deep shock among an unprepared public. With his party in disarray and an approval rating headed for the single digits, Hatoyama resigned Wednesday, along with the DPJ's powerful party secretary, Ichiro Ozawa.

Enter Kan. He is a figure already well known to investors and analysts as the fiscal conservative who has spent the last six months trying to relieve Japan's stifling debt burden (roughly 200 percent of GDP) and reinvigorate a stagnant economy. While he has actively called for Japan to follow the path of fiscal responsibility, and pointed ominously to Greece as a direction Japan might follow if his reforms are not implemented, his short time as finance minister has not seen considerable progress in this direction.

Kan is also known as a pacifist in line with Japan's old left tradition. While serving in the Japanese legislature, he advocated a greater role for the Japanese military under the banner of the United Nations and opposed sending the country's troops to Iraq, as the United States has hoped Japan would. After meeting with Japan's then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2003, he commented, "The decision to send troops to Iraq is based on a fundamental miscalculation." Still, unlike Hatoyama, Kan is unlikely to fumble matters of foreign policy and relations with the country's most important ally, having watched and learned from the Futenma debacle.

Kan's upbringing could be a key asset. Hatoyama's entry into politics was lubricated by family connections (his father was also prime minister). Kan, on the other hand, is a rarity for Japanese politicians -- a self-made man. His path to power was neither direct nor easy. An aspiring scientist in his youth, Kan majored in physics at the Tokyo Institute of Technology and opened his own patent office in 1974. He made his political debut shortly thereafter as a civic activist and entered the Japanese parliament in 1980 as a member of the lower house. It was after exposing a massive scandal, however, that Kan truly burst onto the national scene in the 1990s, as health minister in the LDP government. HIV-tainted blood was entering the country's blood supply, and the government had been covering it up. Kan exposed the details to public acclaim.

But Kan soon faced his own series of scandals. In 1998, he resigned his post after his affair with a television newscaster went public and he simultaneously admitted that he had failed to pay into the national pension fund. Just five years later, Kan was forced to resign from his leadership of the DPJ over another failure to pay. This time, Kan made formal penance: He shaved his head, put on a Buddhist monk's robes, and traveled to the traditional pilgrimage destination of Shikoku island and its 88 temples. It worked. Japan's comeback kid, he remained a senior figure inside the DPJ and served as deputy prime minister and finance minister in the Hatoyama cabinet.

Kiyoshi Ota/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: JAPAN, EAST ASIA
 

Abraham M. Denmark is a fellow and Daniel M. Kliman is a visiting fellow at the Center for a New American Security, which is hosting a major conference on the U.S.-Japan alliance on June 17 and 18 in Washington, D.C.

GRANT

7:09 AM ET

June 4, 2010

It's entirely possible that

It's entirely possible that in under five years we'll see the LDP return to power. At the moment neither party seems to be able to fulfill one key demand, to remove the American bases. However I do find it interesting that the Japanese public are still unhappy about the bases considering the security situation in the region.

 

NORBOOSE

1:29 PM ET

June 6, 2010

Indeed

It is strange that a country as influential about Japan should still be so hyper-sensitive about soveirengty. It might be a result of the Japanese being aware that, despite their massive economic power, they have extremely limited miliatary and long-term strategic capabilites, and therefore are highly sensitive to things of that nature. More likely, however, its just that the bases are visible and their symbolism obvious. Its easy and safe to whine at us, its dangerous to go after North Korea, or do the strategic dance with China.

 

NORBOOSE

1:30 PM ET

June 6, 2010

Oops

as influential AS Japan, not "about" Japan

 

YOSHIMICHI MORIYAMA

7:04 AM ET

June 5, 2010

Kan as a left

The new Japanese Prime Minister has been ' known as a pacifist in line with Japan's old left tradition.' This is right. Mr. Kan's position has been farther to the left than Mr. Hatoyama as the latter was once a politician of the Liberal-Democratic Pary while the former positioned himself closer to the Socialist Party. Mr. Kan was one of those Japanese who was more favorably inclined toward North Korea than South Korea.
Adovacating a greater role for the Japanese Army 'under the banner of the United Nations' has been a usual tactic of the lefts to have very much distance from the alliance responsibilities with the United States. However, as the authors say, as he has watched under his nose what went on between Japan and the United States, so he will be very cautious not to fumble.
He was Finance Minister just for a short while, during which period it became known that he did not know basic concepts of economics such as multiplying effects and consumption propensity. It seems that he knew then he had to change his mind, took the advice from bureaucrats and adopted fiscal conservatism.
He will have already learned some lessons from Prime Minister Hatoyama.

 

NORBOOSE

1:46 PM ET

June 6, 2010

It might be good for the US if Japan had a real military

I dont think the US has any real objections to a strong Japanese army. Japan is possibly our best ally. The only reason the US might oppose it is that it would piss off China, ratcheting up regional and global tensions. Looking back, it seems foolish that we actually thought there was a real chance of Japan becoming a militarist empire again, and the pacifist constituition was not a good idea. I dont know why you seem to oppose a Japanese military buildup, since, as I said, the only people that would really oppose it would be the Chinese, and the only reason they would oppose it is that they really like having a militarily weak Japan. A Japan with hard power would be a second strategic counterweight against the Chinese (India being the one that already exists). I cant imagine why any American or Japanese would oppose it on ideological grounds, although the Chinese thing might give good cause to oppose it on strictly practical grounds.

 

ARJUNA

6:40 PM ET

June 6, 2010

re:Wrath of Kan

The new Japanese Prime Minister has been ' known as a pacifist in line with Japan's old left tradition.' This is right. Mr. Kan's position has been farther to the left than Mr. Hatoyama as the latter was once a politician of the Liberal-Democratic Pary while the former positioned himself closer to the Socialist Party.world political news However I do find it interesting that the Japanese public are still unhappy about the bases considering the security situation in the region.

 

THEADVISOR

7:13 AM ET

June 7, 2010

Good Luck

We recently had a representive of a Japanese mobile producting company in our headquarters. We talked a a bit about Naoto Kan and they said "Naoto Kan wird uns voran bringen. Im Gegensatz zu der großen Konkurrenz muss Japan lernen zu wachsen und Samsung Handys ist dabei eine guten Schritt in die richtige Richtung zu gehen. Mr. Naoto Kan ist gut für unser Land".
So they said, that Mr. Kan is good for their country and their economy cause he is moving the country up. Well we will see about the realities in some months.

 

THEADVISOR

7:15 AM ET

June 7, 2010

Naoto Kan

I remember also that some of the influential German politicans were meeting him so weeks ago. I know some people from the senate that met him 2 months ago and they were impressed by him.