It's Not Too Late to Save Kyrgyzstan

Russia and the United States weren't able to stop the recent outbreak of violence and ethnic cleansing in Osh. But there's still time to prevent the worst.

BY JAMES TRAUB | JUNE 22, 2010

And why didn't the United States act? There have been reports that Otunbayeva also asked Washington for help. A senior administration official says that the rumors are untrue, though an unofficial appeal might have been made to U.S. diplomats. Such a request, he insists, "would have been taken very seriously," but it's hard to believe that President Barack Obama would have ordered troops transiting the NATO base at Manas for Afghanistan to form a convoy to Osh. Indeed, asking neighbors to send troops to suppress atrocities within days of their outbreak, especially if they might have to take on a local army, is a test the international community is very likely to fail.

But military force is only one, and not necessarily the most effective, response to "R2P situations." In 2008, swift diplomacy prevented post-electoral violence in Kenya from turning into mass slaughter; tough sanctions at the very outset might have halted the killings in Darfur. The current lull in violence in southern Kyrgyzstan, and the eagerness for help displayed by a very weak but democratic regime, gives international actors a second chance to get things right, and without an urgent military intervention.

But will they? The White House, along with other donors and the United Nations, is now focused on helping to organize humanitarian assistance. The deeply insecure environment around Osh has raised the question of whether troops might be needed to secure a "humanitarian corridor," but because this was precisely the limited mandate of the U.N. peacekeepers who were sucked into a vortex in Bosnia and Somalia, among other places, officials are exploring this approach with extreme caution. A senior U.N. official says that shops in Osh have begun to reopen, raising the hope that supplies can be distributed without military protection.

The threat of renewed violence won't subside just because refugees are being fed and housed; returning them to their homes might, in fact, exacerbate the situation. The U.N. official to whom I spoke was surprisingly sanguine about reconciliation, hoping that a June 27 referendum that would give permanent status to the interim government would strengthen the regime's capacity to act. The Security Council discussed Kyrgyzstan once last week, and neither Secretary General Ban Ki-moon nor council members have shown much urgency on the subject. But the White House has been engaged in virtually round-the-clock consultations on mechanisms to prevent another outbreak of violence, along with Russia, various allies, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, whose current head is Kazakhstan. Here, too, it might be necessary to ask the Security Council to authorize some kind of "stabilization mission," perhaps involving police or constabulary forces rather than peacekeepers. The administration official said policymakers are considering "a dozen alternatives" and haven't yet come up with the right one, much less marshaled whatever forces would be needed to implement it.

This official also said that the one positive thing to come out of an otherwise tragic situation is the close cooperation between Russian and U.S. diplomats and political leaders, and Kyrgyzstan will certainly be on the agenda when Obama and President Dmitri Medvedev meet June 24. That certainly is a bonus, and perhaps even a validation of the "reset" with Russia. But if the two former adversaries work together to make a really, really sincere effort that fails to stop a new round of violence, that will be to no one's credit.

Russia may be cynical on R2P, but this U.S. administration is not. In his National Security Strategy released last month, Obama vowed to remain "proactively engaged in a strategic effort to prevent mass atrocities and genocide." Last summer, when the Sri Lankan government killed thousands of civilians in its campaign to wipe out a vicious terrorist group, the administration worked quietly, and as it turned out ineffectively, to stanch the violence. Kyrgyzstan presents an easier test -- about as easy as R2P situations are likely to get. This time, no points for trying hard.

Postscript: Last week I reported that Haji Abdul Jabar, the governor of Arghandab, a district just north of Kandahar, had been assassinated by the Taliban. I questioned whether anyone would be brave and foolish enough to take his place. Kevin Melton, the U.S. Agency for International Development official working with the local government, informs me that Haji Muhammad, the "shura leader," immediately agreed to do just that. Those who would urge the Obama administration to abandon its counterinsurgency effort must be prepared to tell the likes of Haji Muhammad that the United States doesn't think the game is worth the candle.

VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images

 

James Traub is a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and author of, most recently, The Freedom Agenda. "Terms of Engagement," his column for ForeignPolicy.com, runs weekly.

BBOYZ

9:22 AM ET

June 23, 2010

ill informed report

“as many as half the country's 800,000 Uzbeks were forced to flee their homes”

The total population of the Uzbek population is 700,000. According to the UNHCR 400,000 (women and children) Uzbeks fled towards the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border. 300,000 ethnic Uzbeks remained in Kyrgyzstan to defend their houses. According to the UNHCR, there are more than 700,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) ethnic Kyrgyz who fled to other regions within Kyrgyzstan.

Lumping together Sudan, Sri Lanka, DRC, Rwanda etc with Kyrgyzstan clearly demonstrates that the author of this note does not know the complexity of the issue, main actors, catalysts, and politico-criminal dynamics in the south of Kyrgyzstan, where Uzbeks are not mere observers but participants. I would encourage the author to conduct deeper studies and not to get carried away by populist tags such as “genocide” etc.

“Russia had cited R2P -- with transparent cynicism -- to justify its 2008 invasion of South Ossetia and Georgia. Why not now, with a willing government and a genuine crisis?”

Because the government of Russia does not want to take sides, which it will have to once its troops are on the ground. Secondly, there is a very strong resistance from Uzbek President Islam Karimov, who is afraid that the Russians will stay on the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border, as they did in Tajikistan under the pretext of securing fragile borders.

What I agree is that Kyrgyzstan needs international help, in the form of peacekeepers, humanitarian aid, criminal investigators for international commission, and reconciliation specialists, and good shrinks to help the people to live with haunting memories of atrocities...

 

CAMAELJAX

1:04 PM ET

June 23, 2010

Not R2P but failed CIA Colored Revolution

There are a couple of neglected points in this article that make it clear why this is anything but a "textbook case of R2P", itself en illegitimate challenge to existing international law based on the UN Charter, promoted by the West under the normalizing euphemism as an "emerging body" of law...lmfao...

1. The article completely neglects the many substantial sources (inlcuding the UN, the Kyrgyz interim government, and the Karimov government in Uzbekistan) that while there are certainly latent ethnic tensions in the region which were ignited - that the spark and fuel of this conflict was a deliberate and organized covert political effort by the ousted corrupt Bakiyev regime hiring mercenaries, locally and from afar as Afpak and Tadjikistan, to instigate inter-ethnic violence and use it as a cover to de-legitimize and if possible disrupt planned elections in the fall which would cement his clan's fall from power, and potentially to re-seize control in the isolated South of Kyrgyzstan.. In Maxim Bakiyev's (now requesting political asylum in the UK) own words, "Out of spite alone, I will drown them in blood.". It is notable that as soon as the reported "suitcases of cash" handed out on the streets of Jal-Abad and Osh dissapeared (Stratfor), that the mobs dissapeared and the violance subsided to a cinder...
2. There is a good reason why this was neglected, The Bakiyev clan seized power in the wave of CIA sponsored Color Revolutions during the Bush II regime in the US, the so-called Tulip Revolution. In addition, Bakiyev's family has also been accused of corruption in regards to payments of rent and fuel for the US Airbase in Manas. This Bakiyev-US connection is a clear delineation of why this is not a typical case of "R2P", and is politically embarrassing for the US. Further, reports that Russia was involved in supporting the counter-Color Revolution that saw Otunbaeva and the interim government kick out the corrupt Bakiyev regime, indicates a shift towards Russia in the geopolitical balance of power in Kyrgyzstan and the broader Central Asian region. The violence in Kyrgyzstan is not a case for R2P at all, but the aftermaths and dying convulsions of geopolitical games between the US and Russia. (source Stratfor)

 

RSAFSOZ

3:03 PM ET

June 23, 2010

i think

i think Russia does not want to take sides, which it will have to once its troops are on the ground. sikis sex

 

ENGUZELSIN

7:31 AM ET

July 5, 2010

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