The Canadian Century

What the United States could learn from its northern neighbor.

BY BRIAN LEE CROWLEY, JASON CLEMENS, NIELS VELDHUIS | JUNE 25, 2010

At the beginning of the 20th century, Canada was one of the richest countries in the world, enjoying boundless natural resources, a privileged place in the commercial empire established by still-dominant Britain, and access to the energetic American market. Against this backdrop, it didn't seem unreasonably boastful in 1904 when Prime Minister Wilfrid Laurier proclaimed that "the 20th century shall be filled by Canada."

Ninety years later, his words seemed more ironic than prophetic. The Canada of 1994 in many ways resembled the United States or Europe of today. Deteriorating public finances at every level were causing grave anxiety among both the public and experts. The federal government was plagued by persistent deficits. The national debt was growing at an alarming rate. The media and the international community were all predicting a day of fiscal reckoning with far-reaching implications. The Wall Street Journal went as far as to call Canada "an honorary member of the Third World."

Fast-forward again to today, and Canada seems to be back on track. The country's economy grew at an average rate of 3.3 percent between 1997 and 2007, the highest average growth among the G-7 countries, including the United States. Canada's job-creation record was nothing short of stellar. From 1997 to 2007, Canada's average employment growth was 2.1 percent, doubling that of the United States and exceeding employment growth in all other G-7 countries. Perhaps most importantly for future economic prosperity, during the same period Canada outperformed the G-7 average almost every year on business investment. Canada outperformed the United States on this measure in every year but three over the same period.

So perhaps Laurier was not wrong, just 100 years early. If the country continues on the path it is following today, it's not unreasonable to think that this will be the Canadian century, the era in which the country comes into its own as a world economic power and finally steps out of America's shadow.

The story of how a classic economic basket case transformed into a top global performer has implications beyond Canada. Every one of the tools Canada used to extricate itself from its parlous position is available to the United States. As the world's top economic powers gather in Canada for this year's G-20 summit, U.S. President Barack Obama and his team would be wise to study the Canadian model, or risk being left behind.

 SUBJECTS:
 

Brian Lee Crowley is managing director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute; Jason Clemens is director of research at the Pacific Research Institute; and Niels Veldhuis is director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute. This article is adapted from their recently released book, The Canadian Century: Moving Out of America's Shadow.

Facebook|Twitter|Reddit

AWESOME

8:00 PM ET

June 25, 2010

Oh, Canada

Why shouldn't Canada be a great country? They live under the umbrella of freedom that America provides and pays for them.

 

ROSS09

3:46 PM ET

June 26, 2010

You must be confused. It's understandable though.

What do we gain from you besides a place to sell our product? Not security, that's for sure.

 

AWESOME

8:56 PM ET

June 26, 2010

Pride

Being proud of your country is one thing... but being delusional is just pathetic.

 

FREETRADER

5:20 AM ET

June 28, 2010

Oh, Ross...

I love Canada and many Canadians. But the ignorance you express regarding Canada's international position is unfortunately not rare in the Great White North. Whether it loves the US or or hates 'em, Canada only exists because the US is there to protect and support it. Most Canadians realize this and probably don't like it much, but understand that that nice country is the result of haven established by having a big, noisy friend. I say that most Canadians realize this, but there are a few, like you, who apparently don't know anything about the world outside of Canada.

 

BLACKSHYLD

10:06 PM ET

June 28, 2010

Trade

Canada benefits from being friendly neighbors to the most powerful economy in the world. They don't just sell products, but buy ours as well.

Canada also benefits security wise due to NORAD, on top of that they benefit from the security that the US Navy guarantees in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. With out these things Canada would have to devote a much greater sum to its military expenses, money that could be better spent elsewhere

Does Canada need these things? Perhaps not, they do have a ton of their own resources, land and access to both the Atlantic and the Pacific. They have everything America has to be a successful, even dominating world power given the proper political climate. How ever due to America's power and their positive relationship with the US, Canada doesn't need to.

So, tell me again Canada does not benefit from the security America provides.

 

DARKAUTUMN

11:15 AM ET

July 9, 2010

Oh really?

Funny how it was, in the moment of truth on 9/11, a Canadian General at NORAD that ordered flights diverted & defences raised when both the US military & political chains of command failed.
Proving the worth of America's so-called protection.

And as someone who's served at SHAPE (NATO HQ) and NDHQ (Canada's Pentagon) I can attest that the myth of US protection is precisely that: A myth.

One thing the Soviets learned from Napoleon & Hitler is the impossibility of conquering a geographically huge landmass.
And Canada is, geographically, the second largest country on Earth after Russia.

In other words: "Wake Up, Neo."

 

DARKAUTUMN

11:15 AM ET

July 9, 2010

Oh please...

America's the only country to ever physically attack Canada.
And failed at it twice: During the American Revolution, and again in the War of 1812.
You guys failed at it from right next door, setting an example nobody else wanted the humiliation of emulating from afar.

 

PRENDIVILLE

7:59 AM ET

June 26, 2010

jeez..

this article has a stupifying amount of ignorance towards Canadian economic policy of the last 3.5 years. While the points raised up until 2007 are largely true, there is no mention of Canada's current economic and fiscal policy, we made a paradigm shift when we went Conservative in 2006. Today Canada is a ship of fools blissfully heading towards disaster. Mr Harper knows this, and can't wait. The global corporate state may seem to be stemming from America, but it is Canada that will be the model. Look at the $1.2 billion being spent on security for the 36hr G8/G20 in Toronto this weekend for evidence.

 

ASB

9:17 PM ET

June 26, 2010

Clarifications

The authors, while generally correct in their review of Canadian policy, are less than convincing that this experience can be replicated in the U.S. One reason is noted in one of the other comments here - commodity prices finally bottomed during the Canadian recovery after a multi-year slide which created both well-paying employment and significant tax revenues from oil, gas, base metals and other commodities.

More importantly, the Canadian dollar declined dramatically during this period until it was worth around 65 cents U.S. - at a time during which the American and other foreign economies were robust. This made Canadian exports extremely competitive (and imports into Canada uncompetitive), so the country was essentially able to export its way out of its problems. Unfortunately, it is difficult now to devalue the American dollar against the Euro, the pound or the yen (owing to the very serious financial problems in Euroland, the U.K. and Japan) or the yuan (owing to lingering political control over the exchange rate, notwithstanding the recent announcements out of China). Quite apart from this, Euroland, the U.K. and Japan have - and are likely to continue to have - weak economies for years to come (just like the U.S.), so their ability to absorb increasing levels of American products is very questionable. (The U.S. dollar has now dropped against the Canadian dollar, so they can probably hope to benefit from their resulting increased competitiveness against their largest trading partner.)

In short, we Canadians were not really all that clever - we were just lucky enough to get into trouble early at a time when the rest of the world was doing well. No such luck for Uncle Sam, unfortunately.

 

DA_GUH_DA

9:18 AM ET

June 26, 2010

commodities and financial services

The authors' point about reducing the Canadian deficit is somewhat valid. However, the authors did not mention that Canada's economy is far more dependent on commodities than the rest of the G7, and this decade's increase in commodity prices helped the Canadian economy. The US economy is not as dependent on natural resources, so this is something the US will not be able to imitate.

Compare with 10-12 years ago:
7-14x increase: oil at ~$10/barrel then, vs. ~$140 in 2008 and $70-80 now
4x increase: gold at ~$300/oz then, vs. ~$1200 now

High commodity prices resulted in higher profits for businesses in that sector, and gave them an incentive to increase investment. This created jobs in that sector and expanded the government's tax base.

Higher commodity prices also means more commodity tax revenue for the federal and provincial provincial governments, especially the resource-rich provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

As well, secondary effects on the financial services and housing sectors:

In contrast to US banks, Canadian banks are more regulated and concentrated, and behave more like oligopolies, and have more conservative lending practices. They benefited from record low interest rates and the surplus money from the commodities sector. Admittedly, the Americans can learn something from Canada's banking industry.

However, there is reward and risk: note the over-concentration of Canadian equity markets in commodities and financial services:

commodities:
Currently, 47% of the market cap of Canada's main stock exchange the TSX –energy at 26.5% and materials 20.5%.
Contrast to just 14% of the US's S&P 500—energy at 10.7% and materials at 3.5%

financial services sector
represents 30% of the TSX,
contrast to 16% in the S&P 500

So the aggregate of financial services and commodities represents 77% of the TSX vs. 30% in the S&P500

The performance (excluding dividends) from exactly 10 years ago:
S&P 500: -22%,
TSX: +16% (and would have been higher if excluded the demise of Nortel)

Housing prices are currently holding up in Canada. Combined with the higher performance of the Canadian stock market over this past decade, this means the typical Canadian did not suffer as much financial loss as Americans. Which of course helps the tax base and economic confidence.

Now should the prices of commodities drop and/or interest rates rise, the 77% over-concentration of Canadian financial markets in financial services and commodities would have negative effects on the economy.

 

DA_GUH_DA

9:38 AM ET

June 26, 2010

War in Iraq

Also the authors, do not mention the enormous gap in military spending in the US vs. Canada

Canada did not have the financial drain of up to $1 trillion dollars to occupy Iraq

Canada's military spending as a percentage of GDP is only 1%, vs US at 4%

 

DA_GUH_DA

9:29 PM ET

June 26, 2010

Not a terribly informed

Not a terribly informed response by "AURANGZEB KHAN"

The US has been so sensitive about the war in Iraq being about oil, that it is the non US companies are the current beneficiaries of the oil coming out of Iraq.

BY the way, I'm not an American--that was another yet-uniformed assumption by our friend Khan.

 

RUSTYPELICAN

11:24 AM ET

June 27, 2010

In need of an education

Under the Anglo-American legal system, anyone can sue anyone at any time for almost any reason. This basic precept has been adopted by various multinational institutions. Of course, filing a lawsuit has no bearing on whether such suit has merit. Frequently such politicized lawsuits are frivolous and in need of summary dismissal. I realize that these and other fundamental principles of western civilization (free inquiry, scientific method, philosophy, ethics, etc.) are strange and foreign to those accustomed to the backward and corrupt state of existence throughout much of the rest of the world. I suppose that being subjected to the propaganda of most societies in the Middle East and Central Asia would produce a certain retardation and inability to understand the difference between fact and fiction.

 

MORTIMERSANDERSON

10:20 PM ET

June 27, 2010

whether just a hater or a killer, keep it up...

Do not fret; your time will come. That nuke for which you've striven for so long will one day bring an end to this lovely hate-filled world of yours. I guess then your tiresome days of Jew-baiting will finally come to an end as well...

 

FREETRADER

5:24 AM ET

June 28, 2010

Funny Ahmed...

That nutjob gives the same post to EVERY SINGLE ARTICLE. His full-time obsession is to express hatred for America (whatever beefs Canada may have with the US, the issues he describes aren't among them). The editor should just kick this hateful idiot off the blog so the adults can talk.

 

MALLOC

3:07 PM ET

June 26, 2010

Deficit Spending

People who espouse the view that we need to cut back government sector spending in a time of record unemployment are ignorant. This article tries to make that case that deficit reduction is good for America now because it was good for Canada back in the 90's is just dumb. This isn't 1990 and the people who wrote this article act is if there isn't 10% unemployment in America. These are the same people who urged Roosevelt to cut back on his government works programs during the great depression because of huge deficits. And we all know that we got out of the great depression because of the biggest government works program in history, World War II.

Long term fiscal discipline is a good thing, and that is what we should be aiming for long term. Long term we need to be running surpluses, not deficits.

What this article is really about is the Have and the Have-nots. The people that have money are supporting the view that we need to cut back deficit spending now while the unemployment rate is at or above 10% (in actuality its higher then 10%) because they're afraid that inflation will eat up the money they have in the bank. One would just need to look at the consumer price index to see that there is no significant signs of inflation. It's kind of stupid to think there would be any significant inflation now since consumer demand is down due to lots of people not having any JOBS. This article should be deleted of the internet.

 

RODERICK FRAME

9:15 PM ET

June 26, 2010

Canada's Independance

I'm sorry Aurangzeb but Canada has been independant since 1867, unlike Pakistan which is basically a peasant filled nation used as a "virtual state" by the ISI and Pakistani Army.

 

DACCHO

10:54 AM ET

June 27, 2010

Let's be serious here

Now, even though there is a good deal of anti-Americanism (read, inferiority complex) in Canada, I wish it nothing but the best always. But we have to be serious here, there will never be anything close to a "Canadian century." A "Canadian few days", or "Canadian week" here and there maybe, but thats about it. Whilst Canada is no doubt amongst the top tier countries, the fact that it is still nonetheless a small country will never allow it to gain such influence. Of course I know that Canada is the second largest country in the world by total area and fourth largest by land area, but as far a population goes it is not large, and this fact will always keep it securely in America's shadow. By 2100 America's population is projected to be anywhere from 600,000,000~1,000,000,000 (census.gov) Canada's might reach 60 million. Now, I'm not saying either or is good, but looking at that math alone, makes it unlikely.

 

RUSTYPELICAN

11:11 AM ET

June 27, 2010

Clarification

The author overlooks the single most important factor in Canada's economic improvement. Canada has efficiently exploited its vast energy and materials resources. The article references business investment, a most all of which has been related to hydrocarbon and mineral extraction. I applaud Canada's fiscal discipline, which is something the US could and should emulate. And while the US lacks the resource base of Canada, it does possess vast reserves of hydrocarbons that it steadfastly resfuses to exploit. Until the US is governed by grown-ups, its policies will continue to be based upon adolescent idealism.

 

BUEHFORD

2:39 PM ET

June 27, 2010

Canada will never be a world power

Canada has vast quantities of commodities that are currently in great demand and that has resulted in a huge tax windfall for the state.I commend the country for its current , new-found fiscal responsibility. Canada, however, is no world power and never will be. Canada is a European state.It has a cradle to grave welfare state. It has high taxes. It has a small, weak military. It views the world through a pacifist prosepective that comes from the United States military being the de facto national defense of Canada.

Canada, unlike America, does not provide it's citizens freedom of speech. As such, speech that the state does not agree with can be banned. As in America, the left does the speech banning, so leftist topics are fine, dissent, however, is hate speech. Combine a lack of a unifying language or history, official state policy of Balkanization (see. e.g. nunuvat), massive, uncontrolled immigration (much of it Muslim) and provide the state with the power to prosecute inidividuals for state deemed offensive speech, and you have the makings of Canada. Let's hope it isn't the Canadian century.

 

TOMKJ

4:05 PM ET

June 27, 2010

Realy?

"official state policy of Balkanization (see. e.g. nunuvat), massive, uncontrolled immigration (much of it Muslim)".

Now lets change a couple of things;

"sort of an official state policy of Balkanization (see. e.g. The Sun Belt west of the Misissipi), massive, uncontrolled immigration (much of it Mexican)"

I'm not going to even argue with you about the free speech BS. When a school in Canada canceles prom in order to prevent a lesbian student from bring a date, maybe i'll hear you out.

 

FREETRADER

5:38 AM ET

June 28, 2010

@TomJ...

I fully support gay rights including gay marriange. But the example you provide of a school in the backwoods canceling a prom so a lesbian wouldn't bring her female date is a free speech issue exactly how? I don't see it...I think you've swung and missed.

 

SCROSS28

2:54 PM ET

June 28, 2010

Worth reading if you found this article interesting

http://www.cigionline.org/publications/2009/9/prorgram-review-government-canadas-experience-eliminating-deficit-1994-99-canadi

 

MUSTNOTSLEEP14

1:12 AM ET

June 29, 2010

Canada should join the US. A

Canada should join the US. A very large % already want to (though it is decidedly less than 50%). We could remove the pointless border between our nations and their input in our presidential elections would be a nice moderating influence. I am sure we could give them some enticements that could persuade them to say yes.

 

RSAFSOZ

1:28 AM ET

June 29, 2010

much thing

A country with high levels of social welfare. sikis porno film sex izle

 

FSILBER

12:07 PM ET

June 29, 2010

Not mentioned

America should become like Canada in the sense of discovering vast resources of exportable energy. That wil help.

 

ALEXBC

4:10 PM ET

June 29, 2010

Canada

Canada has favorable demographics (no 600+ million in poverty like India or China), geographical security in North America, abundant resources, and a free society. That's a really good start, and more than most of the over-hyped "potential superpowers" have at present.

 

JASONBIRD

6:32 AM ET

July 3, 2010

Have you ever got these

Have you ever got these jerseys?They are all great gears....
The National Football League (NFL) is the highest level of professional American football. It was formed by eleven teams in 1920 as the American Professional Football Association, with the league changing its name to the National Football League in 1922. The league currently consists of thirty-two teams from the United States. The league is divided evenly into two conferences — the American Football Conference (AFC) and National Football Conference (NFC), and each conference has four divisions that have four teams each. The NFL is organized as an unincorporated association of its 32 teams. The NFL is by far the most attended domestic sports league in the world by average attendance per game, with 67,509 fans per game in the latest regular season (2009)

chris Johnson navy jersey|chris Johnson white jersey|Adrian Peterson purple jersey|Adrian Peterson white jersey|ray rice black jersey|Ray rice purple jersey|Ray rice white jersey|Frank Gore red jersey|Frank Gore white jersey|Aaron Rodgers green jersey|Aaron Rodgers white jersey|Michael Turner red jersey|Michael Turner white jersey|Drew Brees black jersey|Drew Brees white jersey|Peyton Manning blue jersey|Peyton Manning white jersey|Rashard Mendenhall team jersey|Rashard Mendenhall white jersey|Steven Jackson white jersey|Steven Jackson navy jersey|Larry Fitzgerald red jersey|Larry Fitzgerald white jersey|Randy Moss navy jersey|Randy Moss white jersey|DeAngelo Williams black jersey|Reggie Wayne blue jersey|Reggie Wayne white jersey

Alexander Ovechkin red jersey|Alexander Ovechkin white jersey| Sidney Crosby Home jersey|Sidney Crosby Road jersey|Sidney Crosby Third jersey|Zach Parise red jersey|Zach Parise red jersey|corey perry home jersey|ryan getzlaf home jersey|Jeff Carter home jersey|Jeff Carter road jersey|Jeff Carter third jersey| Mike Green home jersey|Jarome Iginla home jersey|Pavel Datsyuk home jersey|Pavel Datsyuk road jersey|Henrik Zetterberg red jersey|Henrik Zetterberg white jersey|Ilya Kovalchuk team classic jersey|Miikka Kiprusoff jersey|Alexander Semin home jersey|Alexander Semin road jersey|Marian Gaborik jersey|Alexander Semin road jersey|Dion Phaneuf blue jersey|Dion Phaneuf white jersey|Patrick Kane jersey|Vincent Lecavalier jersey|

Cheap blackhawks jerseys|cheap nhl jerseys|Wholesale ed hardy|Cheap ed hardy|cheap Penguins jerseys|cheap replica handbags|Cheap bears jerseys

Get the nfl gears on bargain price.