Red Team

CENTCOM thinks outside the box on Hamas and Hezbollah.

BY MARK PERRY | JUNE 30, 2010

According to a senior CENTCOM officer, while the CENTCOM Red Team report has been read by outgoing CENTCOM chief Gen. David Petraeus, it's unknown whether its recommendations have been passed on to the White House. Even so, there's little question the report reflects the thinking among a significant number of senior officers at CENTCOM headquarters -- and among senior CENTCOM intelligence officers and analysts serving in the Middle East. And while any "Red Team" report by definition reflects a view that is contrary to accepted policy, a CENTCOM senior officer told me that -- so far as he knows -- there is, in fact, no parallel "Blue Team" report contradicting the Red Team's conclusion. "Well, that's not exactly right," this senior officer added. "The Blue Team is the Obama administration."

*Note: To avoid confusion, this story uses the spelling “Hizballah” throughout, although Hezbollah is FP’s preferred spelling.

JOSEPH EID/AFP/Getty Images

 

Mark Perry is a military and political analyst and author of eight books, including Partners In Command, George Marshall and Dwight Eisenhower in War and Peace, and the recently released Talking To Terrorists.

GUYVER

8:47 PM ET

June 29, 2010

Respect!

CENTCOM first impressed me when GEN Petraeus warned that the Israel-Palestinian conflict was fueling extremism. Now this Red Team report confirms that CENTCOM has some bright thinkers.

 

STEVE99

8:47 PM ET

July 1, 2010

Hamas Quiz

Can you pass the Hamas Quiz at: http://www.countercurrents.org/rudolph250610.htm

The essential facts and context is provided through this excellent quiz.

 

JKOLAK

10:37 PM ET

June 29, 2010

Theory

The report sounds like good theory, but I don't think you could ever get Hamas to renounce violence. Given the cultural milieu, I also don't know what chance you might have to separate the Palestinian populace from Hamas' ideology on the destruction of Israel.

 

SAWADEE

12:17 AM ET

July 6, 2010

JKOLAK, I believe, is correct.

I also cannot imagine that Hamas will ever renounce violence. This is the group which famously was misunderstood to be talking about peace when they asked for a '10 year truce'. Most peacenicks took this to mean that Hamas was talking peace. Really, when one looked deeper into the situation, one found out that they meant this truce as a "tactic" towards their end-goal, which was the destruction of Israel after that 10 years.

BUT - one has to try. And by "One" I mean that America and Israel need to do all that is possible in order to at least give them a chance to fail - as expected.

One issue that I'm not a fan of that is often missed is all of this talk of reunification between Hamas and Fatah. I can't imagine that ever really happening. They hate each other and only will use each other against Israel, but to share a government? To sit next to each other as part of a government? To agree to peace with Israel as part of this government? I'd like to see a red paper about that...

 

SAWADEE

12:40 AM ET

July 6, 2010

"The system is based on fear of annihilation."

That's like saying that there's this "collective shark Psychosis" where if you get six people swimming in the ocean during the shark's dinner time you'll end up with shark dinner...

There's a reason why Jews believe that they are in danger - because throughout all of recorded history while there have been Jews they HAVE been in danger. In the '40's it was Hitler. Before that it was the Cossacs. Before that it was Z and before that Y and before that X...one and on. This is not a "Psychosis", this is a reality-based learned history.

This person, Danielet, is a perfect example of propaganda leading rationale. He writes, "Expansion by extermination, so blatantly visible from examination of tactics in the Lebanon and Gaza attacks..." Right. "extermination", which is why the population at these areas in question is EXPANDING. Which is why in Gaza Israel did more to try to not harm innocents than has any modern military or probably any military in the history of warfare. Millions of leaflets and robocalls telling people to get out of the way of specific buildings that were to be bombed...dummy bombs when Hamas sent civilians up to the roofs to 'protect' the buildings... Yet, partisans and the bias-driven will say such things as "expansion by extermination" as if this is reality - a programmed reality, perhaps.

In short, reading the rest of this person's drunk polemics makes me wonder how someone can learn to spell and combine that many words without knowing what so many actually mean.

 

BUDAHH

9:34 AM ET

June 30, 2010

Budahh The Western media is either stupid or clueless

Are the Terrorists paying you to write this stuff? You are right where they are.
"the area on the verge of a perpetual humanitarian collapse" , how could a responsible journalist or reasearcher write such things although are a quote by someone else we all get the point, it is an absolute lie there is no humanaterian crisis, the only crisis is the one in the media's imagination and lies.
What if I said that Israeli Intelligence officials think it is a good Idea to talk to AL Qaeda, how does that sound, do you think they will take the deal.
Let me explain something to you mr journalist writer, these are muslim fanatics which are driven by religous ideology, Israel has left Lebanon and the Hizbullah has no reason to exist , Israel has left the gaza strip before the siege and we saw what that did when you have Al qaeda on the Mexican and Canadian boarder with ballistic misslies you can try to be friends with them and make them a "political party". I am not saying not to talk to them, if they show pragmatizm than why not, but fanatics don't just become political parties and stop their terrorists ways even if the nice U.S administration and some generals will be nice to them and talk to them.
HOw can you give them such legitimecy? Unified Palestinian force, you know about tribal honor? The hamas and fatach are not friends for 3 years already, they had plenty of chances yet their sponsors in Syria and Iran will not approve of the deal.
You want to get rid of the problem in the middle east stop the Iranian regime from sponsoring and supplying terror groups. stop the syrian terror training and support and Ibet you the world will be a better place.

 

MRPSIKO

12:53 PM ET

June 30, 2010

Some Questions

What evidence do you have that the humanitarian crisis on the Gaza Strip is not, in fact, happening? What kind of perverse reality do you live in where inconvenient facts that sane people acknowledge are discarded if they become inconvenient?

You have to ask yourself: who in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict does not have the blood of innocents on their hands? Are the Palestinians simply helpless victims of Israeli aggression? No. Is Israel a small, defenseless state (supposedly the "only democracy in the Middle East") that always does right and should be applauded for its so-called 'restraint? No. The world is an extremely complex place, one where a binary black-and-white worldview is more dangerous than simple ignorance.

You do bring up some good points. Even if I don't agree with them, I can see you're at least somewhat aware of what is going on. What troubles me is that a smart person like you rushes to immediate black/white judgment that is more in line with a political party's rhetoric than a well-researched opinion. Disagree with me and others all you want, just please do so after you've at least made a token effort to listen to more than one side of a story.

Constructive criticism is necessary for the functioning of a democratic republic such as ours and, yes, our military. To pull the terrorist card on either the author of this article or the respected officers at CENTCOM (who likely know far more than you or I about the subject) is at best childish and at worst an example of blinded patriotism. It's refreshing to be reminded that military thinkers and strategists are pushed to think 'outside the box' and question traditional orthodoxy.

 

BUDAHH

2:45 PM ET

June 30, 2010

Some answers

First, there are about a hundred trucks with food and medicine that go into the gaza strip almost every day, palestinians get medical treatment in Israel,I haven't seen all of them with my own eyes yet I belive our government. could palesinians lives be better? definitely but reality please. You guys should go see what Darfur is like, there are some real humanatarian crisis there.
Israel is not perfect we make mistakes yet show me a country which faces the same threats and does better????
I am not against talking to these groups if they show pragmatism likeI said. I will trell you why I am so mad at this journalist, he presents the facts in a way that is just not true to make his point stronger, and he makes false points about things that happened. He gives the terrorists legitimacy.
He quotes Nasrallah to make it seem like hizbullah cares about Lebanon "Nasrallah, stating that if Lebanon and Iran's interests ever conflicted, his organization would favor Lebanese interests" What do you want him to say they listen to the Iranians. ha

"But all Palestinians are watching the clashes in East Jerusalem, which continue to feed into the Palestinians perception the Israelis are incapable of negotiating in good faith," yet no word about the palestinians. Which target civilians by means of terror.
He just tries to legitimize terrorists and you don't do that, they win once you do that, it make me very angry that the western media buys into the arabic propoganda and talks about these groups. I think this article is probably not even true.
You don't need to be a centcom intelligence officer to read the map around here, anybody who speaks a little arabic can understand what these terror groups are about and their intesntions.

He just writes wrong things yet we can argue about those, Hizbullah is already a political power what else can you offer them, they already have the strongest military force in lebanon and they have a veto right in the parliment, you want to give them better american weapons?
The hamas was elected into power and they obviously didn't change, you saw what they did in gaza?

Belive me we don't want to fight all of our lives but you have to be realistic and you can't give in to the terror, that is when they win and that is what this article suggests

 

EW66

4:52 PM ET

June 30, 2010

The Real Problem

The real problem is when intellectually dishonest, or excuse me but stupid, people like IPPON continue to float these downright lies. BUDDAH and MRPSIKO were having an interesting exchange. They disagreed on many things but at least tried to address real issues. Then comes wannabe blogger IPPON who compares the Israelis to Nazis and slave owners while saying that they're trying to carry out a genocide! Just stop. You are the real obstacle to constructive debate. Grow up and educate yourself or do the world a favor and get a day job. May I suggest parking enforcement?

 

CBYANASAK

1:33 PM ET

July 1, 2010

could be worse argument

One form of argument that never impresses me is the "could be worse" one. Sure, Palestine is in bad shape but it could be Darfur. This does nothing to better either situation and only aims to create excuses where solutions are needed.

 

BUDAHH

7:18 PM ET

July 1, 2010

Even worse argument is to claim you care about people

and actually give unproportional attention to one matter and hold diiferent people to a different standard and than complain about it. No one said two wrongs make a right we are just saying be realistic and don't throw around phrases like crisis geonocide etcc.. No one said there is no problem. We can argue about the solution, I blame hamas you probably blame us, let me hear your solution to the problem than mr, how do you stop the rockets and make their lives better at the same time I think it is up to the other side but I would like to hear your solution since you seem to have taken it to heart.

 

SAWADEE

1:02 AM ET

July 6, 2010

IPPON, try to be honest...

...or get educated. Whichever you find more effortless.

There are a few facts here which are unquestionable and one is that while there IS a humanitarian crisis, the cause is not ONLY Israel. Yes, there are tonnes and tonnes of goods going into Gaza, but these goods are not always going where they need to go.

We have all seen (or should go see) the pictures of the bizarre pictures of the bazaars in Gaza. The restaurants. The trade in illicit Coke AND Pepsi options... Yes, this is reality. We have all heard (or should hear) stories about how Hamas steals NGO food and then sells it...we hear how Hamas will not allow goods in once they cross the Israeli border search...

Yes, there's a humanitarian crisis, but it ain't all Israelis fault, but it makes better press to only suggest that it's Israel's fault. That sells more papers and flaps more fool's lips.

 

SAWADEE

1:06 AM ET

July 6, 2010

No, CBYANASAK...

that's not the case.

The reason to bring up Darfur is because if one reads the world's press, one would think that there's nothing worse going on in the world than in Gaza... Look at all of these bits and bytes being printed on this page talking about Gaza when in the same site we can read the "Failed State Index" and read about REAL horror. Want to read horror? Read about Somalia. Read about Sudan...etc. But, no ... it's not that EVERYONE is trying "to create excuses where solutions are needed." It's that one is trying sometimes to impart reality in a communication that is often borne on the wings of propaganda.

 

POCOCURANTE

1:25 PM ET

June 30, 2010

Credulism is not out of the box thinking

> the two groups are "pragmatic and opportunistic."

Which is another way of saying they'll do whatever it takes while outsiders delude themselves.
.
I strongly recommend Paul Berman's book "Flight of the Intellectuals". It's important to see documented evidence of the duplicity these groups employ. They're not looking to retire to Caribbean islands - they're playing for keeps and their serious about seizing power and undermining not just Israel but the other regional powers.
.
We're not required to be their suckers.

 

JACOB BLUES

5:25 PM ET

June 30, 2010

Here's the rub, and I wish that Perry had gone into greater

detail.
.
HAMAS and Hizballah are both considered extremist and rejectionist parties to any peace plan in the region between Israel and the neighboring Arab states.
.
Such a position was highlighted several months ago when the journal Foreign Affairs published an article on how to manage HAMAS, noting that wishful thinking in the West and actual changes on the ground, had in fact, not moderated HAMAS ideology.
.
So why this change in belief in CENTCOM. What is it about the ideology and leadership of both HAMAS and Hizballah, that has changed.
.
Reality is, while each group may have their own drives and goals, both answer to superiors in Tehran, notably Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Iran has been quite blunt in its regional plans, including what place Israel has in them.
.
This quote "The Red Team also claims that reconciliation with Fatah, when coupled with Hamas's explicit renunciation of violence, would gain "widespread international support and deprive the Israelis of any legitimate justification to continue settlement building and delay statehood negotiations." " needs to be justified given that HAMAS and Fatah continue to remain at war with each other, and that HAMAS continues to reject any renunciation of violence. Indeed, a rejection of violence is one of the demands put forth by the Quartet and Israel for ending the blockade, so the idea that a HAMAS that legitimately rejects violence and accepts Israel as a Jewish state, and reconciles with the PA, all conditions of removing the blockade (the safe return of Gilad Shalit being the fourth condition), the idea that Israel would lose support has little meaning. What it means is that HAMAS would finally adhere to the conditions set forth by peace negotiatiors, well, for peace.

 

YERUBAL

9:52 PM ET

June 30, 2010

Why the spelling 'Hizballah' here?

Granted, the spelling 'Hizballah' is closer to the Arabic for this concept, but
the note at the end of the article is "To avoid confusion, this story uses the spelling “Hizballah” throughout, although Hezbollah is FP’s preferred spelling."
What is the nature of the confusion that is in question here? Is it to distinguish
the Lebanese/Palestinian scene from the Iranian one (where Hezbollah is
the Persian style of pronunciation but might also relate to the Lebanese)??
If anyone knows what the FP folks (or Lee Smith) have in mind, please
comment.

 

RAMALLAH

10:25 PM ET

June 30, 2010

Spelling

Hizballah is the spelling used in the CENTCOM document and is kept throughout the piece, though FP's preferred spelling is Hezbollah.

 

LOBEWIPER

9:44 AM ET

July 1, 2010

Peace-making

In order to make peace, one must first see one's enemy as a human being instead of demonizing him. Doing so makes dialogue possible, the identification of mutual interests, and permits compromise that benefits both sides. It is very encouraging (and surprising) to learn that our military stategists are now considering initiatives which could prove to be far more productive than what we have thus far seen. (Maybe our civilian leadership will listen to them instead of to the Israel Lobby and the Israeli government.) Great article!

 

JACOB BLUES

10:19 AM ET

July 1, 2010

Well Lobe, just let us know when HAMAS and Hizballah will view

Jews as people other than the descendents of pigs and monkeys.
.
Unfortunately, that's what passes for 'civilian' leadership in Lebanon and Gaza.

 

LOBEWIPER

10:59 AM ET

July 1, 2010

Viewing Jews as people

Jacob,

If you are an Israeli, you might consider initiating the Humanization of Jews process by withdrawing from lands which you have illegally colonized, treating Palestinians as human beings with civil rights, ceasing the use of disproportionate force, seriously negotiating peace with your enemies, and stopping the drums of war against Iran...

 

LOBEWIPER

1:32 PM ET

July 1, 2010

True Tell's post

True Tell, did we both read the same article??? What Perry is describing re: CENTCOM thinking represents in my opinion a sea change in our approach to the middle east. Bringing Hezbollah and Hamas into the process and including them in a negotiated settlement is totally different from the current position of the US and Israeli governments. It is ironic that it apparently takes military folks to sensibly wage peace in this country, as vs. our elected "leaders," who are-as you say-in the pocket of the Lobby. Of course we must be liberated from the "Israeli stranglehold." CENTCOM's leaking of this very constructive possible new approach is one further step in that liberation.

 

THEANTICLAUS

1:20 PM ET

July 2, 2010

TRUE TELL BIASED

Your commentary is hopelessly biased toward an anti-israeli slant, full of disinformation and outright falsehoods. I could spend all day addressing each and every tendentious comment, but I will take the time to address only one. Th USS Liberty Incident is trotted out by those who despise Israel or perceived Jewish influence on the US at every opportunity. There was no cabal conspiring to shut down an investigation of the incident. In fact there were at least 6 USG investigations: CIA, US Navy Court of Inquiry, a report by Clark Clifford, the Senate Select Committe on intelligence, NSA, and the House Armed Services Committee. I know...the Jews controlled all those folks to make them conclude it was an unfortunate, no tragic, accident. Try reading something not written by Roger Gaurady or Noam Chomsky.

 

SAWADEE

1:30 AM ET

July 6, 2010

Do you all see?

TRUE TELL and his ridiculous assertions and logic? That Hizbollah beat Israel? HA!!! That Israel would try to again invade Lebanon if not for Hizbollah?

Pure lunacy. Seriously. Incredible.

This is the kind of guy that thinks that the US government caused and enacted 9/11, too. And aliens...don't forget aliens.

 

STEVE99

8:44 PM ET

July 1, 2010

Hamas Quiz

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REBELS8

6:23 AM ET

July 2, 2010

The CENTCOM Red Team report was probably politically motivated.

The CENTCOM intelligence officers that wrote this report are probably partisan political hacks masquerading as objective analysts of intelligence. The Obama administration probably pressured CENTCOM to write this report, because Obama wants to "engage" with the Islamic world. But the United States, Israel, and their allies shouldn't work with Hamas and Hezbollah until the two terrorist organizations totally renounce their use of violence and recognize Israel's right to exist as an independent Jewish state. And it would have been nice if Mark Perry had interviewed somebody who didn't agree with the Red Team report.

 

REBELS8

6:26 AM ET

July 2, 2010

The senior CENTCOM officer was stupid, not the Israeli minister.

In this article: "In the wake of the Gaza flotilla incident, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon said that those on board the Mavi Marmara, the scene of the May 31 showdown between Israeli commandos and largely Turkish activists, had ties to "agents of international terror, international Islam, Hamas, al Qaeda and others." The same senior officer wasn't impressed. "Putting Hizballah, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda in the same sentence, as if they are all the same, is just stupid," he said. "I don't know any intelligence officer at CENTCOM who buys that." "

It was the senior officer that was stupid, not the Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister. The minister never said that all of those Islamic terrorist groups are exactly the same. The minister simply listed the groups, and the officer jumped to the conclusion that the minister believed that the terrorist groups are one and the same. But even though all those Islamic terrorist groups do have different objectives, they do have a lot in common, such as hatred for Israel, America, the West, Jews, and Christians.

 

REBELS8

6:28 AM ET

July 2, 2010

The Red Team contradicts on Hezbollah's relationship to Iran.

In this article: "The most interesting aspects of the report deal with Hizbollah.The Red Team downplays the argument that the Lebanese Shiite group acts as a proxy for Iran. The report includes a quote from Hizballah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, stating that if Lebanon and Iran's interests ever conflicted, his organization would favor Lebanese interests. "Hizballah's activities increasingly reflect the movement's needs and aspirations in Lebanon, as opposed to the interests of its Iranian backers," the report concludes. It also criticizes Israel's August 2006 war against Hizballah as counterproductive. "Instead of exploiting Hizballah's independent streak ... Israeli actions in Lebanon may have had the reverse effect of tightening its bonds with Iran," the authors note. "

The authors of the report contradict themselves here when they say that Hezbollah's recent activities support Lebanon rather than Iran and then the authors say that Israel's 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon drove Hezbollah closer to Iran. And nobody ever said that Hezbollah's first priority wasn't what Hezbollah itself wanted, but what Iran or other Lebanese wanted.

 

REBELS8

6:29 AM ET

July 2, 2010

Hamas is responsible for the violence not Israel's blockade.

In this article:"CENTCOM officers note that Israel's strategy of keeping Gaza under siege also keeps "the area on the verge of a perpetual humanitarian collapse" -- a policy that the intelligence report says "may be radicalizing more people, especially the young, increasing the number of potential recruits" for the organization. The report argues that an Israeli decision to lift the siege might pave the way for reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, which would be "the best hope for mainstreaming Hamas." The Red Team also claims that reconciliation with Fatah, when coupled with Hamas's explicit renunciation of violence, would gain "widespread international support and deprive the Israelis of any legitimate justification to continue settlement building and delay statehood negotiations." "

Any humanitarian crisis in Gaza is due to the Hamas terrorist rulers there stealing humanitarian aid that was meant for the common people that really needed it. That's why Israel wanted the "peace" flotilla to dock in Israel instead of Gaza. The Israelis didn't want the aid to go to the terrorists, and the Israelis would have made sure that the aid got to the people that needed it through the secure Israeli supply route into Gaza. The CENTCOM Red Team report claims that violence perpetrated by Hamas toward Israel is because of Israel's blockade of Gaza and that if Israel ended its blockade then Hamas would magically renounce its use of violence. But Israel blockades Gaza because Hamas attacked Israel, not the other way around. And Hamas has been perpetrating violence against Israel since the organization's founding. Hamas is never going to renounce its use of violence unless it has a drastic change in leadership, similar to Gorbachev in the Soviet Union. And any radicalizing of more people in Gaza is because of the Hamas terrorists. This radicalizing would happen even if Israel ended its blockade of Gaza.

 

REBELS8

6:33 AM ET

July 2, 2010

The Palestinian Authority is responsible for its own occupation.

In this article: "In supporting the creation of a unified Palestinian security service, CENTCOM's Red Team distances itself from the U.S. effort to provide training to the Fatah-controlled security forces in the West Bank, which began during George W. Bush's administration. While that effort, currently headed by Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton, is not mentioned specifically in the report, the Red Team makes it clear that it believes that such initiatives will fail unless the Israelis and Palestinians negotiate an end to the conflict. While Dayton and the administration are focused on building a "National Security Force" in the West Bank that excludes Hamas, and jails its members, the focus of Palestinians is elsewhere. "But all Palestinians are watching the clashes in East Jerusalem, which continue to feed into the Palestinians perception the Israelis are incapable of negotiating in good faith," according to the report. CENTCOM's implicit criticism of Dayton is not a surprise: the general's program is controversial among some senior military officers, who question an effort that, in Palestinian perceptions, makes the U.S. a partner in the Israeli occupation.

This ,may be one of the most idiotic things I have ever read before. If the U.S.'s training of Palestinian Authority security forces in the West Bank makes the U.S. a partner in the Israeli occupation, according to some senior military officers, then that would also make the Palestinian Authority a partner in the occupation of its own territory! I'm sure this is what the Hamas terrorists believe, as they are against the Palestinian Authority. And many people criticize the U.S. government for being too one sided in favor of Israel and for allowing the Israelis to hijack our foreign policy. But if we just listened to the focus of Palestinians and Palestinian perceptions, as the CENTCOM Red Team report implies, then we would become too one sided in favor of the Palestinians and allow the Palestinians to hijack our foreign policy.

In this article: "According to a senior CENTCOM officer, while the CENTCOM Red Team report has been read by outgoing CENTCOM chief Gen. David Petraeus, it's unknown whether its recommendations have been passed on to the White House. Even so, there's little question the report reflects the thinking among a significant number of senior officers at CENTCOM headquarters -- and among senior CENTCOM intelligence officers and analysts serving in the Middle East. And while any "Red Team" report by definition reflects a view that is contrary to accepted policy, a CENTCOM senior officer told me that -- so far as he knows -- there is, in fact, no parallel "Blue Team" report contradicting the Red Team's conclusion. "Well, that's not exactly right," this senior officer added. "The Blue Team is the Obama administration."

I'm sure the Obama White House had the recommendations even before CENTCOM had them. And even though the report may reflect the thinking of a significant number of CENTCOM intelligence officers, I'm sure it doesn't reflect the thinking of all them or even most of them. While that CENTCOM senior officer said that there was no "Blue Team" report contradicting the Red Team's conclusion, for all we know, the Obama administration didn't allow the resources needed to be able to write a Blue Team report. If I was somebody in the military brass, I'd probably want a report on both sides of a controversial issue. And when that senior officer said that the Blue Team is the Obama administration, I'm sure that's what Obama wants people to think.

 

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