Thank you for the article. I have some constructive criticism regarding the specific steps you listed.

Regarding step 1, the decision - It's clear that Iran currently has a strategic advantage in maintaining public ambiguity about whether they have decided to build a bomb or not. That ambiguity is a stabilizing stance for them until the point that IAEA / UNSC / or unilateral US policy develops a conclusion that they have decided affirmatively to do so and that we must act to deal firmly with it. One hopes that, unlike Saddam Hussein, they correctly identify and respond if the world or US policy consensus invert the stability of that ambiguity into instability.

Your observation that they may have deliberately chosen to reach threshold status - the supporting technologies and industrial infrastructure - without any intent to cross it at any specific point is an often made one. It is perhaps the best of the likely possible scenarios in actual play from a US perspective. Poor cooperation with the IAEA makes that somewhat less likely, though.

Regarding step 2, gathering material, as many have pointed out it takes far less centrifuge effort and time to go from low-enriched civilian reactor fuel enrichment (2.5-4%) to weapons grade than it does to produce the original low enriched material. Iran is quietly building up a large inventory of LEU. A small, out of the way plant could complete enrichment to weapons grade material fairly easily from that point, if they secretly or overtly divert their LEU stocks. Using their entire existing centrifuge array is unnecessary.

Regarding steps 3 and 4, building and miniaturizing a weapon, the technology required to build a warhead compact enough to fit on their solid fuel Sajil IRBM is roughly equivalent to the 1954-era US Mark 12 bomb, affectionately known as the Brok device for reasons apparently unknown to historians. That apparently took only three now well known conceptual innovation steps from the first Fat Man type nuclear bombs - more explosive lenses, levitated fission pits, and beryllium neutron reflectors. Significantly more advances beyond those are well known in the open research today.

Regarding step 5, deliverance, the Sajil and other Iranian missiles have several models of warhead reentry vehicles which appear to be designed for nuclear warheads, and which have been test fired multiple times with apparent success.

Regarding step 6, range, it's true that Iran's missiles currently can't reach Europe or anywhere close to the continental US. But that range is not particularly relevant to them - Europe is not a major confrontation risk for them. Israel is, and has been within Iranian heavy (nuclear-capable payload weight) missile range of central Iran for many years now. Other US allies in the Persian Gulf are similarly already within range, as are US bases in the region. As are many other nations including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, India, and parts of Russia.

Even if one could assert that Iran won't ever develop ICBMs able to reach the United States, their highest risk of war would seem to be with Israel, and those two parties are already within mutual missile range of one another. That the US does not have to station additional ballistic missile defense units on high alert for an Iranian ICBM today does nothing to ameliorate the SRBM and IRBM risk they are posing now.

Iran might develop ICBM with nuclear weapon capability by 2015 but there is a war for resources going on simultaneously and who knows who will support whom in getting whatever for near future.

As another article pointed out that Russians nukes are not that secure and can be smuggled by mafia. Who knows. But personally I think that you should be really MAD to use nukes and whatever US media says I don't think Beardi is that insane.

According to the IAEA, there are about 40 countries right now that already have the theoretical capability to make nukes. That is simply inherent in possession of nuclear technology, which the Non-Proliferation Treaty recognizes as an inalienable right of all nations. And, it took Pakistan of the 1960s just 5 years to make nukes where as Iran today is far more technologically-advanced. So if the Iranians wanted nukes then they would have had them by now. However, instead they've repeatedly offered to place additional restrictions on their nuclear program -- well in excess of their legal obligations - which would address any REAL concerns about weapons prolifertion (such as their offer to open their nuclear program entirely to joint participation with the US and other nations) However, these and other compromise solutions (most recently the uranium swap deal) have simply been ignored or brushed aside by the US, or deliberately saddled with preconditions intended to kill the chances for a peaceful resolution. WHY? BECAUSE NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROLIFERATION IS A PRETEXT just as "WMDs in IRaq" was simply a pretext. This is a manufactured crisis intended to scaremonger and justify a war, This has nothing to do with actual concerns about nuclear weapons proliferation.

"Don't worry, folks! 2015 is a whole 5 years away and nukes in the hands of Islamic fanatics out to destroy Israel is not our problem. Nothing to see here!"

Gee, I feel safer already.

Short of a pre-emptive nuclear strike Iran can't be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons (should they decide to do so).
Why go out of your way to piss of someone who might in, at least, the medium future be a nuclear power? Especially since Iran, so far, is sticking to their NPT obligations.
This is just the usual neocon fear of everything. I don't think it's a pretext for war, I think they are so xenophobically fearful that they believe what they say.
The question is - who are most dangerous - the neocons or the Iranians?

Tha statement by the C.I.A. chief leon panetta was realy made to justify American agression against Iran. since the revolution, Iran has beeen under constant American economic pressure and sanctions. However, to justify further aggression, the UN security Council was cajoled into passing the latest resolution.
All said and done, it is the American word against Iranian denials and I believe the Iranians are more honest on this issue. This is chiefly because Japan also has stocks of Uranium and IF it so wishes it has the capacity to build a BOMB; but will it? The Indians have the bomb but the American administration pushed aside all pretenses and is now co-operating with India on NUKES. Israel cannot be mentioned because the US is absolutely powerless to make an honest criticism of Israeli NUKES.
What is so dear that the US does not want any nation to develop the BOMB whereas it the largest stockpile of NUKES and their delivery systems? Iran has never attacked America not even Israel, why all this propaganda?

No one knows about the Iranian Nuclear program? What about their hidden facilities, Iran was fooling the west for 15 years already with it's nuke program, they invented the chess game, there is a lot of stuff you don't know about their nuclear program and intelligence services might?
Also it doesn't matter if they have a bomb once they have reached the level of technical knowledge and ability nothing can hold them back, and the point of no return is closer than the timetables yo have mentioned. So that is why iot is important to stop the program now before they cross the point of no return technologically.

The sheer opacity of Iran's nuclear program, the fact that at least two of its major facilities have been "underground" for several years, should give world powers every reason to use every sanction possible to coerce Iran's government into acquiescence. What seems like a long time to the author may in fact be a short time for the U.S. or Israel.

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The question is what, diplomatically, can America do to a) deter Iran from getting nukes or b) minimize the fall-out from Iran obtaining nuclear weapons?

When is comes to this question, is Obama right putting such emphasis on international cooperation and global nonproliferation efforts? Or should he be putting the screws to the Iranian regime as hard as possible?

Frankly it seems hard to believe that a in a world system that gives India an nuclear deal and Pakistan a nuclear deal, that Iran will fear any lasting fall-out form having nuclear weapons.

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In this article: "To produce a crude nuclear device would take an additional year, assuming Iran has a workable design and the components to build it. But the leap to a sophisticated nuclear warhead, one that could be used as a weapon, could take an additional two to five years. "

The writer of the article acts like a crude nuclear device made by Iran wouldn't be a threat, but only a nuclear war head. But that's not true. The Iranians could give dirty bombs or suitcase nuclear weapons to its terrorists proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. In fact, the Iranians might rather give their nuclear weapons to their terrorist proxies to be used on Israel, the United States, or European countries, so as to distance culpability for a nuclear strike from Iran.

We know Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons, and after that, nuclear warheads that will work on their missiles.

There is no enemy of Iran that is waiting to attack until after Iran gets nukes. The nukes are not for deterrence or defense. The only enemy Iran had in the military sense was Saddam, who is dead.

The Iranian regime has a different character than the governments of Japan, India, Pakistan or China. They have definite suicidal tendencies, and yet a belief in the need for Islamic domination of the region and the world.

China has consistently engaged in nuclear proliferation, as crazy as that sounds to us. Technology can be bought. Europe and North Korea are fertile grounds for Iranian shopping.

A military option that delays things for a few years means we can re-bomb every few years as needed, until they get the point. After a while the leaders will be replaced, hopefully with people who aren't nutty enough to be holocaust deniers. Any delaying method, military attack, sabotage, or diplomacy, may be enough.

Worst case, the US would have to separate the Iranian regime from it's supply of oil money, by inventing new energy technologies or by seizing the oil fields (they aren't densely populated). Once poor, they're out of the picture.

War is caused by prosperity and optimism more than by poverty.

I agree - Iran has allegedly been close to building a bomb for years, and how 'close' they actually are really depends on the level of need of the US Government to establish more control overseas for whatever agenda is driving the US economy at that time.
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Doing it so might create problem in the future. I really don't know if we need to stand on the side of this issue. Much better if the authorities will consider things before taking a serious action about this matter.Pete Frost