Why Kosovar Independence Is Good for Serbia

Hashim Thaci had a very good day. The former rebel commander and current prime minister of Kosovo heard today that his country's 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia was legal. The International Court of Justice in The Hague, the most established world judicial institution, released its long-awaited ruling this morning, and the prime minister and his entourage watched the announcement live from Washington. At several points, according to a minister who was present, they broke into applause. More than a decade after NATO bombs released the mainly Albanian province from Serbia's grip, Kosovo is finally emerging from the legal limbo of being a United Nations protectorate guarded by NATO.

This afternoon, Thaci and his ministers celebrated the decision in the crowded lobby of the Mayflower Hotel. With security guards hovering nearby, they exchanged handshakes, took congratulatory calls, and checked in with officials monitoring the reaction at home. NATO peacekeepers had geared up for violence in the Serb-dominated areas of the province, but reports indicated that the decision was received calmly in Serb areas.

Thaci's presence in Washington at this key moment was no accident.

While his ministers had some business to conduct at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, the prime minister clearly relished being in the capital of his strongest backer when the ruling came down and the world's eyes moved, however briefly, to his corner of the Balkans. He met yesterday with Vice President Joe Biden and attended a prayer breakfast this morning with Kosovo supporters on Capitol Hill.

The court's 10-4 ruling that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence did not violate international law was a rare moment of intense scrutiny for the sleepy international court in The Hague, which some observers believe is fading into irrelevance. Few countries still accept the court's jurisdiction in all cases. Its caseload is relatively light, and its primacy is being challenged by sleek new institutions like the International Criminal Court and the World Trade Organization, which has its own system for adjudicating trade disputes. Those cases the ICJ does get its hands on often sit for years before a final decision. The Bosnian suit alleging that Serbia had committed genocide stayed on the court's docket for 13 years before being resolved. Sprightly the ICJ is not, and it was fitting that the court's website crashed under the pressure of the hits it received today.

There was less at stake in the ICJ decision than it seemed. Kosovo is effectively independent, and no court decision was going to change that (the ruling was an advisory opinion without binding legal force, in any case). For all its anger, Serbia has no appetite to physically challenge Kosovo's status. NATO troops still walk the beat in the disputed province, and Serbia has ambitions of joining the European Union, which would frown severely at any aggressive moves. In fact, most Serbian politicians probably breathed a quiet sigh of relief today. A decision questioning Kosovo's independence would have forced them into a nationalist posture; now they will be able to move past an issue that's been a continuing obstacle to joining the EU.

The decision mattered most in the recognition game. While more than 60 countries have recognized Kosovo, many were sitting on the fence, awaiting the ICJ's decision. Today's ruling will likely push many of them to forge relations with Kosovo, a development that will simplify its diplomatic, trade, and economic relations. "No country now has any reason not to recognize Kosovo," Thaci told me today. Nearby, his finance minister theatrically checked his email to see whether any recognition announcements had arrived.

The major question now is what effect the decision will have on those inclined to secessionism around the world. In their public statements before the court ruling, Serbia and its ally Russia often conjured up a parade of horribles that began with recognition of Kosovo's independence and ended in a global frenzy of state fragmentation. That fear was always exaggerated, but the Kosovo decision might embolden a few separatists.

They would be wise not to push their luck. As Thaci's presence in Washington attests, it was superpower brawn and not the force of international law that turned a rebel commander into a prime minister. Rebels without similarly strong friends will have less luck, whatever the judges in The Hague say.

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ANDOR_1

1:29 AM ET

July 23, 2010

Sleigh of hand

To call receiving the new international loan package "some business to conduct at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank," is a sleigh of hand.
The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday approved a loan package of $140 million, on top of about twice that on tap from the World Bank and the European Commission.
Considering that the entire population of Kosovo is 1.8 million, it is a very attractive deal for the Albanian thugs, drug dealers and bandits.

REEW

2:21 AM ET

It`s truth

"They would be wise not to push their luck. As Thaci's presence in Washington attests, it was superpower brawn and not the force of international law that turned a rebel commander into a prime minister. Rebels without similarly strong friends will have less luck, whatever the judges in The Hague say"

.....no comments

PUBLICUS

4:12 AM ET

Good for many.......

The ruling of the ICJ is good news in Tibet and in the far western PRC province of XinJiang which is Muslim and Turkic speaking. They too can now aspire to freedom and independence from the invader, occupier and destroyer of their cultures the People's Republic of China.

5:12 AM ET

lol

The ruling of the ICJ is good news in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They too can now aspire to freedom and independence from the invader, occupier and destroyer of their cultures the People's Georgia.

GRATT

2:43 PM ET

really REEW?

If you think Georgia is that evil then what exactly is Russia?

Do you think Russia will remove its troops from Abkhazia if the population asked it to?

what about South Ossetia? will they be allowed to unite with their northern brothers and declare at least a symbolic independence? I don't think so.

If these people think they are better off under the Russians they should ask Chechnya what it is like.

BOUNCE

8:52 AM ET

AN UNSURPRISING VERDICT FOR CHAOS

Given the number of countries whose unilateral declarations of independence would have been nullified - the United States falling conspicuously if a bit belatedly under this category - the court ruling is perhaps unsurprising. (Especially when you consider that international law has been heavily shaped since the end of World War I by the United States.)

However, this is a recipe for short term peace and long term chaos. The Palestinians, the Tibetans, the Taiwanese, Corsicans, Catholic northern Irish, Native American tribes. The list of unhappy people who might think the world would be a better place if they could have their own country is dauntingly long. (Funny, too, how many problems the United States had when it was the confederacy that was unilaterally declaring independence.) They have now been granted at least a yellow, if not a green, light by a moribund court which chose to interpret law with an eye, to borrow from Burke, to much enraptured by human reason and too little with wariness about human nature.

Kattie bar the door! As the author correctly points out, in international affairs, brute force still trumps international law. The court may have stopped the Serbs, but every Kosovo wannabe just got sanction for their ambitions. This is going to be messy.

MISHMAEL

10:38 AM ET

Bad news for the ICJ

This decision would only hasten the sidelining of the ICJ. COuntries which oppose this verdict would simply argue that the institution was biased, had no jurisdiction etc and refuse at all to recognize any international court decisions. Those people who see this as a justification for separatism would be disappointed to learn that even if they got their day in court, the courts decision would be ignored. The ICJ should have built up some credibility by rejecting Kosovar independence (since it wouldnt affect the country anyway) in order to make what are probably more important rulings in the future.
An irrational and instinctive desire to "side the the little guys" is what countries like China, Russia, India, Brazil etc believe is at work. For those countries in the West who have already solved their separatist movements through violence (WW2, US repression of native americans, economic bribery) this might seem irrelevant, but it raises the question of ethnic parties and perhaps ethnic "sovereignty."

ASGOLD25

11:03 AM ET

Absurd

I generally agree with the underlying argument of the article, but can't help but think of how absurd and condescending it is for a court in the Hague to decide whether or not a country deserves to be independent. If people don't want to be a part of a country and have a legitimate right to the land they live on, let them be independent. There's such hypocrisy in the recognition of countries ruled by oppressive regimes like those in North Korea and Eritrea while dismissing well governed ones like Somaliland as illegitimate.

CAMELLIA

10:48 PM ET

It really is absurd

Kosovo was never Albanian which means that the Albanians don't have a legitimate right to declare independence. Kosovo was settled by the Serbs in the 7th century A.D., and historical documents, archeological findings, Serbian churches and monasteries, and Roman writings confirm this fact. Tito allowed Albanian refugees (running away from Enver Hoxha's communist regime) to settle in Kosovo en mass after WWII. Serbia was too large and populous for his (supposedly) Croatian taste, so it had to be "diluted". He learned this lesson from Stalin.

Fast forward to the 1990s, the Kosovo Albanians refuse to integrate into Yugoslav society, let alone Serbian society, and the Albanians chose to use violence and steal what is not theirs.

The author is correct about Serbian sentiment with respect to the fake ICJ's ruling. I think what they'll do next is to stop delivering electricity to Kosovo (except for the Serbian North Kosovo region), stop repaying Kosovo's debt, stop issuing Serbian passports to citizens in the new state of Kosovo, demand reparations to Serbian IDP from Kosovo, etc. This will do wonders for Serbian state coffers, and its population of all ethnic groups, of which there are too many to count.

I hope every disgruntled ethnic group in the world has learned a great lesson from Kosovo's example and declare their own independence in the nearest future. But before that, get Washington on the same page!!!

ERION2

4:08 PM ET

July 26, 2010

Where did you get this info...

To Camellia

Albania's population was roughly 800,000 in 1944. Where the hell did so many Albanians come to Kosovo...from Mars?!
By the statistics of the Yugoslav Kingdom of 1939, Albanians consisted of at least 75% of the population in the province, and this after 26 years of absolute Serbian rule from 1913 to 1939. Just read some real books and not the crap from the pathetic Serbian Academy of Sciences....please make an effort and read...!
And even if what you were stating was absurdely true, does it really matter, how people came or went from or to any territory in this planet? Should that be the basis for statehood? If that is the case, the serbs should claim some property in the Urals where they came from in the 6th century AD and all the non indian population of the Americas (North and South) should go back to Europe, Africa and Asia.
Serbia had Kosovo all for itself and would have managed to keep it within her domain, if only had tried a little harder at treating its inhabitants with respect and the bare minimum of digninty. Instead, it transformed the province into equivalent of South African apartheid and when the Albanians decided to fight back, the Serbian government decided to do what it knew best; attempt to ethnically cleanse an entire population in the great traditions of Balkan savagery. The Serbs behaved no better than the Croats in Krajina and they paid the price. Kosovo is lost to Serbia forever and the rest is history...
All that is left is for Serbia to start thinking for the future and not some crazy lost battles from the 14th century. Maybe than there can be forgiveness and final peace in this bloody piece of Balkan land.

SQUEEDLE

11:18 AM ET

Time to pressure Kosovo to take care of its own people

The ethnic Albanians aren't the only group living in Kosovo. Ten years after the fact, Roma of Kosovo still live in almost unimaginable poverty, far worse than they did under the Serb. My friend told me, "the Serbs oppressed us too, but at least we had enough to eat."

It's long past time for the Kosovo government to start acting like a real state and care about ALL of its citizens, particularly those who were forced to be part of the country and then treated like traitors for things like washing the floors of Serbian homes.

I ask that FP magazine do an article on the Kosovo Roma plight and highlight this ongoing, largely ignored human rights crisis.

Foreign Policy Magazine

Thursday’s court ruling could be a blessing in disguise for the Serbs.

BY DAVID BOSCO | JULY 23, 2010

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