This Week at War - by Robert Haddick

China picks a foolish fight over the Yellow Sea

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates arrived in South Korea on July 21 to display their commitment to that country's defense. In March, a North Korean torpedo sank the South Korean corvette Cheonan, killing 46 sailors. Last month, South Korea took its case to the U.N. Security Council but was unable to get much satisfaction -- China, with North Korea's stability its paramount concern, blocked the Security Council from explicitly naming North Korea as the perpetrator.

China had hoped that the Cheonan incident would simply disappear, keeping the strategic situation in northeast Asia in the frozen state it prefers. After the Security Council's non-action, Chinese leaders should have anticipated that the United States and South Korea would take their own actions to reinforce deterrence against the North. China's handling of this affair will end up costing it and brings Beijing's judgment into question.

With South Korea's attempt at justice having come up short, the U.S. and South Korean governments have arranged for a showy two-part display of solidarity. Part one was the arrival of Clinton and Gates, with a photo-op at the demilitarized zone and a meeting with their South Korean counterparts. Part two will be a large U.S.-South Korea military training exercise, involving 8,000 troops, 100 aircraft (including the first deployment of F-22s to South Korea), and the USS George Washington carrier strike group.

Having dug itself into a hole by energizing the U.S.-South Korea military alliance, the Chinese government continued digging: On July 21 its Foreign Ministry spokesman warned, "We resolutely oppose any foreign military vessel and planes conducting activities in the Yellow Sea and China's coastal waters that undermine China's security interests."

The U.S. government has made no commitment to send the USS George Washington carrier strike group, the most ostentatious display of U.S. military power, to the Yellow Sea. But with the Chinese government now having thrown down the gauntlet over the U.S. Navy's right to sail in international waters, the United States will have to respond with a significant display. Anything less than a transit of the Yellow Sea within the next few weeks by the George Washington and its escorts will come off as a loss of face by the United States.

This tussle between China and the United States over prestige is alarming. Why has China suddenly decided to pick a fight over the Yellow Sea? The George Washington carrier strike group last made a routine transit of the Yellow Sea in October, which few noticed or cared about. If the Chinese government is interested in stability in northeast Asia, it should have stayed quiet and allowed the Korean training exercises to proceed uneventfully as they have for many decades.

What is disturbing is the newfound lack of judgment by China's decision-makers. China's gauntlet-throwing has given a boost to the U.S. military alliances in the region. And China's troubling misjudgment in this case does not bode well the next time a real crisis in the region occurs.

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MARTY MARTEL

11:25 PM ET

July 23, 2010

China's opportunity to challenge US

This could very well be the replay of 1961 US-Soviet Union confrontation over Soviet stationing of ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads in Cuba.

Just as US claimed its writ over Western hemisphere without Soviet influence, now China is claiming its writ over Yellow Sea without US influence.

Is today’s China as strong as US of 1961?

Let us see if US backs down over the right of passage for USS George Washington carrier strike group through South China Sea or whether China allows US naval power display in its own backyard.

If China wants to claim a mantle of super power to challenge US, this is as good an opportunity as any for China to establish it.

ALEXBC

3:46 PM ET

July 24, 2010

China is not as strong as the

China is not as strong as the U.S. was in 1961. The U.S. of that era accounted for almost half of worldwide GDP and had proven its might through two World Wars. It had soldiers literally stationed all over the world and could credibly threaten the U.S.S.R.'s incursions by acting through NATO, or through missile batteries in Turkey. By way of military alliances, it had sway over most of Western Europe and South America. It was a leader in scientific and technological innovation and possessed multifaceted tools for power projection in the cultural, political, and military spheres.

What does China have? It has not so much as a single overseas base, no aircraft carriers, and no proven record in conducting actual wars against formidable adversaries. It has no sphere of influence like the U.S.S.R. had; the Soviets had real chips with their investments in Eastern Europe and the Warsaw Pact, whereas China's allies are basically fragile dictators in Africa, and of course the DPRK itself. China is not a leader in innovation and its power projection is limited to the feeble intimidation it attempts in cases such as the ChonAn.

China has a long way to go even to catch the U.S.S.R. of 1961, let alone the U.S. of 1961.

ASHOK2718

12:19 AM ET

China was strong back then, China is stronger now

I still remember the first time I read about how Chinese PVA whopped US Ass in Korean war. Though their was Soviet backing from Air but US led UN forces were defeated major time on the ground by PVA's guerrilla tactics.

Now that China is strongest in this region obviously they have a right to claim stupid things.

It is upto other nations whether they can call Chinese bluff or not.

Like Vietnam defeated China (which for no reason attacked Comrade Vietnam's northern borders) after US left from Indo-China.

BOKWAY

12:26 AM ET

China's Foolish Fight?

Thank you Marty for these sane and well-balanced comments. I cannot say the same for the unbalanced and ideologically tainted headline of reporter Haddick. There is nothing 'foolish' about China's desire to protect itself and other Asian nations in the region from the grandstanding display of failing global hegemony in the South China Sea. This is surely no more foolish that the Kennedy administration's move to protect the U.S. from the establishment of Soviet missiles on Cuba, well within striking distance of American soil.
Perhaps there is a double standard here?

MAIGARI

4:03 AM ET

The Yellow Sea "Fight"

The Chinese are sitting right at their front yard and the US wants to conduct a provocative military exercise and you call that "foolish" and expect the Chinese to meekly sit bye? The US has blown the Cheonan incident out of all proportions; instead of pushing for talks at least between the Koreans. Muscle fexing and thearts definitely have their limits, The US cannot simply dictate to other nations what ther national Interest is anyway. Your meddling in an already confused situation created by US unnecessary export and projection of military might. We do not want another blood letting just to keep your military industrial coplxes operaating at full capacity! The Chinese reaction is perfectly reasonable and even restrained!

4:19 AM ET

43 dead sailors is something blown out of proportions ?

then perhaps their is a need for more dead people before something can be done. right ?

3:38 PM ET

China Is Foolish

You're dreaming if you think there is anything "reasonable" or "restrained" about ANY of China's actions in East Asia, especially in response to the ChonAn.

First and foremost, China is the only reason that North Korea still exists. Beijing's support for the DPRK's autocrats has doomed millions to poverty and prolonged Korea's century of pain (this year marks the 100th anniversary of the Japanese annexation of the Korean Empire).

You say that "The US cannot simply dictate to other nations what ther national Interest is anyway", but you seem to support fully China telling the Republic of Korea (the ChonAn incident), Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines (the South China Sea) what's in their national interests. China is the bully of East Asia. It maintains a shameful empire-state encompassing Tibet, Xianjiang, and Taiwan, and touts its "model" of autocratic, repressive government, media censorship, and environmental degradation.

How did the U.S. blow the ChonAn incident out of proportion? When one nation sinks another nation's vessel, by hostile fire and without provocation, that is an act of war that cannot go unpunished. Yet China and the the multinationalist lobby, not to mention the UN, are more than happy to brush over this incident as if it a minor accident.

The problems with citing the "provocative military exercise" as a just means for China to proclaim are myriad: 1) the exercise is in international waters; China does not "own" the Yellow Sea, 2) these execises have been conducted for literally decades. China is in no position to challenge the U.S. + Japan, Korea, et al, anymore now that it was years ago. Observers forget that the growth of the Chinese military is merely relative: it's easy to grow when you start from basically nothing. At the current pace, it will take over 70 years for ALL of Asia, let alone China by itself, to equal U.S. defense investments and spending.

By that criteria, picking a fight with the U.S. and its allies over an issue in which China and DPRK are clearly in the wrong (hostile sinking of a ship) is definitely foolish.

WESTERN

5:01 AM ET

July 25, 2010

you seem to defend the brutal ruler of the States

we see clearly from the WW1 and WW2 that the Europeans or the westerners brutally fought with each other are mainly for the hegemony in the world.And now the USA goes to Middle East and Asia like the Germany,Japan and the Rome Empire to the Egpt. Histroy will teach these ill school educated war fans at the price the public.

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6:08 AM ET

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CAMAELJAX

10:16 AM ET

Foolish China

I think that China should station a battle group regularly in the Carribean Sea off of ally Cuba to conduct military defensive exercises and see how "foolishly" the USA responds to this entirely peaceful activity...

12:25 AM ET

They are welcome to do it any time they like

I am an Indian and I say you can camp your ships in Indian Oceans with your Pakistani allies for all you like. Boy!! some nations are hospitable others are hostile. Try to see the difference.

CHETANSINGH

8:01 AM ET

July 30, 2010

Ashok2718

Man...its foreign policy, not a political statements in some remote village in India on election day eve...... Think diplomatically in wat ur saying....US putting it warships in Indian ocean ...n India wont care.....come on grow up.......its Foreign Policy !!!!!!

STEVE HUTCHESON

12:35 AM ET

Flexing muscles

It is one thing the think you have the military might to defeat any known enemy and another altogether to actually do that. In 1952, there was no winner in Korea merely a truce.

In Afghanistan a significantly larger force is being bested by a force that has no permanent structure or national backing.

At some point there has to be a recognition of ones own limits in deciding how to move forward if the objective is peace. The scary thing is that is not the objective or that there is any recognition of the limits of capacity.

AURANGZEB KHAN III

9:21 PM ET

China is demanding respect from America and America should...

China is demanding respect from America and America should comply as it has no other choice.

The money makes the mare go.

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DANNY S.

4:40 PM ET

July 27, 2010

Great article

Really Toller article.
Very helpful, great pictures.
Danny S.
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DOBERMANMACLEOD

2:01 AM ET

August 6, 2010

The article underestimates the wisdom of China's foreign policy

The article cops the attitude that China's foreign policy is stupid because it makes a big deal about US/S.Korea navel exercises in the Yellow Sea. That is probably because the article is written with smug acceptance of the implicit notion that China's seemingly blind support of N.Korea is stupid. What is stupid is the US military's two war strategy, which everyone knows is an Emperor with no clothes. OK, not a TWO war strategy, but sort of a one war plus an "opposed stabilization" operation...

Let me give the US government and it's military officers some advice: a cultural-centric military doctrine leads America to go far-away lands to slay imaginary dragons. Wake up - America's military budget is going to decrease and if our military doctrine doesn't shrink also we are the stupid ones.

BIG FOOT

3:29 PM ET

August 16, 2010

"China's Foolish Fight Over the Yellow Sea"

Before you write this article, I would advise you to research the signaficant of the Yellow Sea. If it's that simple, the Chinese wouldn't have made a big deal. Think before you waste your ink!

Foreign Policy Magazine

This Week at War: China's Foolish Fight Over the Yellow Sea

What the four-stars are reading -- a weekly column from Small Wars Journal.

BY ROBERT HADDICK | JULY 23, 2010

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