Who Killed the Climate Bill?

We asked the experts who is to blame.

JULY 23, 2010

This is how a climate bill dies. On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced the bad news: “We don’t have the votes.” Without a single Republican backing the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act, the Senate's version of a comprehensive energy bill, there was no point taking it to the floor, he explained. For now, there was no way to move forward.

Reid’s announcement dealt a devastating blow to those hoping the United States would lead the way in aggressively curbing the greenhouse gases that scientists say are dangerously warming the planet. With time running out before 2012, when the current global climate treaty expires, negotiating a new agreement just got much harder.

So who’s to blame? Was it just a poorly crafted bill? Was there ever a chance Republicans would sign on to cap and trade? Did Barack Obama’s administration drop the ball? Or was it environmental groups themselves, who failed to persuade the public that now was the time to act?

FP asked five experts who have closely followed the debate for their verdict. Here’s what they told us:

Click here for: Bill McKibbenChristine Todd Whitman, Bruce Babbitt, Stuart Eizenstat, Paul J. Saunders,  and Michael A. Levi.

Bill McKibben:

This was never going to be an easy task. Dealing seriously with climate change means damaging the business model of the most profitable business the world has ever seen -- fossil fuel -- as well as disrupting the lives of every citizen to one degree or another.

Given that, we in the environmental community have made a mistake over the years in assuming that it would take an essentially "inside game" to win. That is, most of the big groups focused most of their efforts inside the Beltway, with expert lobbying of all kinds. The theory, I think, was that the simple fact that scientists explained we faced the worst problem ever, and that economists explained that we could deal with it, would be enough to win that action. But it wasn't.

We also needed -- and still need, more than ever -- an outside game, a big mass movement to get lots of people involved across the United States (and the world, since the dynamic is the same everywhere) in pushing for change. We took a first stab at it last year with our Global Day of Action and showed it wasn't impossible -- 5,200 demonstrations in 181 countries on the same day, "the most widespread day of environmental action in the planet's history." But that was just a start -- we're glad that people from around the broader movement are joining in on 10-10-10 (Oct. 10) for a big Global Work Party. It's an attempt to send a message to our leaders: "We're getting to work; what about you?" And in the United States this year that message will be delivered in an indignant tone. The Senate acted shamefully, but not surprisingly. We need to change the power equation, and since we'll never match ExxonMobil for cash, we'd better do it with bodies and spirit.

Bill McKibben is an environmentalist and scholar in residence at Middlebury College. He is author most recently of The Bill McKibben Reader.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

 
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DEATHWARE

6:04 AM ET

July 24, 2010

Havae

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ZORRO

1:57 PM ET

July 24, 2010

Changing Taxes

Here in Sweden the social democrats compromised with the greens and raised taxes on gas while lowering them on labor. The total taxes was the same, but they made in easier to hire and more expensive to drive inefficient cars.
Something like that might be the way for the US.

 

VANGELV

6:22 PM ET

July 31, 2010

No need...

There is absolutely no reason why Americans should destroy their economy by passing something as useless and ineffectual as the cap and trade bill. Its passage would not have done much for emissions but would have transferred wealth from consumers and taxpayers to industry, academia, and the green movement. The fact that the proposed legislation got a great deal of support from industry should tell us all we need to know about who will benefit. And the fact that the biggest proponents from the 'green' side have done nothing to change the way that they live or to cut their own emissions should tell us all we need to know about just how seriously they take the problem.

What we need is more science and much more data transparency so that we can all look at the evidence. How much support do you think that the typical voter would give the legislation if s/he knew that most of the warming claimed over the past decade took places in which there was no station data used and that GISS uses measurements from a thousand km away to interpolate what the temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic are? The simple fact is that the public has turned on the AGW proponents because they have yet to demonstrate that there is unusual warming caused by man or that warming would create a problem.

 

HSCHMIDT

8:38 AM ET

July 25, 2010

Maybe there is still hope for America

... because the climate hysteria is not advancing unrestrained. Over here in Europe, we are already paying billions each year for absolutely nothing - this 'nothing' is called 'sustainability' and 'green energy'.
Dear Americans: you cannot compete with the Chinese on cheap 'green' jobs - they will all go to China, just as they are leaving Europe and going to China right now. America should really stop trying to save the world and return to its core values - or else there is nothing that will save this beautiful country.
Greetings from Germany.

 

VANGELV

6:26 PM ET

July 31, 2010

Couldn't agree more...

I laughed when I heard the CEO of GE whine about the Chinese. China is the biggest producer of the rare earth minerals that are necessary to make those wind turbines that we see all over Europe and North America. Recently, the government announced that exports of those needed material will be severely restricted. What that means is that the high value added green jobs will wind up in China and Europeans and Americans will have to settle for the lower value installation and service activities. Voters are not stupid so when they figure out that they have been had the support for subsidies that make GE's profits possible will fade faster than Obama's approval ratings.

 

NOM DE GUERRE 1967

9:45 AM ET

July 26, 2010

They're Asking Too Much

Stuart Eizenstat argued that climate change legislation would not in fact harm the economy or destroy jobs despite claims to the contrary. This statement is not followed by any argument. If the goal is to reduce the consumption of carbon based fuel, I see the only options as reducing demand via taxation etc. (which is not likely to help the economy) or to reduce the supply effectively available to the market via credits or some other regulatory mechanism (I doubt this one will do the economy any favors either). If Mr. Eizenstat has found another option he should run for office (and the Noble Prize).

The real problem is that this type of legislation requires politicians to ask the population to accept significant costs to fix a problem that "no really, trust us" exists. No significant fraction of the population will ever look at global warming and really know from a scientific standpoint that its true. How many people for example (environmentalists quoted in this article included) know how many vibrational modes the CO2 molecule has, or why that is important? So people must accept global warming on faith (or the word of others - which isn't much better)

Of course many people tolerate attempts at Keynesian solutions (and their associated costs) to macro scale economic problems while taking their justification on faith. But politicians have the cover of being able to claim victory when unemployment goes down or markets improve (regardless of why). The goal of climate change legislation is to prevent an envisioned future disaster, and so if successful, what do the politicians point to? The fact that no disaster occurred? Not to mention the problem that the supposed benefit comes decades after the costs.

Good luck every making this happen in the US.

 

JTRISH

2:28 AM ET

August 20, 2010

Good point

I believe you have a great point there: in order to for people to change their habits and make sacrifices, they need to see the harm of keeping things the way they are. The only way to brake inertia at so many levels in everyday life and put our paradigm upside down is to be certain that change is necessary. Unfortunately, for most of the population, that's a matter of belief, mostly. Unfortunately also, by the time we see the disastrous effects of climate changes, it will be too late.

Perhaps, it would be necessary to educate younger generations on this matter while designing greener, affordable ways to change our economies. Wish I had the answer to this problem. John Trish - repossessed cars for sale

 

UGGSTYLE

11:53 AM ET

July 26, 2010

that is faire

Stuart Eizenstat argued that climate change legislation would not in fact harm the economy or destroy jobs despite claims to the contrary. This statement is not followed by any argument. If the goal is to reduce the consumption of carbon based fuel, I see the only options as reducing demand via taxation etc. (which is not likely to help the economy) or to reduce the supply effectively available to the market via credits or some other regulatory mechanism (I doubt this one will do the economy any favors either). If Mr. Eizenstat has found another option he should run for office (and the Noble Prize).

The real problem is that this type of legislation requires politicians to ask the population to accept significant costs to fix a problem that "no really, trust us" exists. No significant fraction of the population will ever look at global warming and really know from a scientific standpoint that its true.

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How many people for example (environmentalists quoted in this article included) know how many vibrational modes the CO2 molecule has, or why that is important? So people must accept global warming on faith (or the word of others - which isn't much better)

Of course many people tolerate attempts at Keynesian solutions (and their associated costs) to macro scale economic problems while taking their justification on faith. But politicians have the cover of being able to claim victory when unemployment goes down or markets improve (regardless of why). The goal of climate change legislation is to prevent an envisioned future disaster, and so if successful, what do the politicians point to? The fact that no disaster occurred? Not to mention the problem that the supposed benefit comes decades after the costs.

Good luck every making this happen in the US.

 

DCHONG

1:53 PM ET

July 26, 2010

It's Obama's fault!

"It's Obama's fault because he failed to break a united front of Republican opposition. He should have compromised earlier to advance a bill that would have been toothless and ineffective."

"It's Obama's fault because he was too busy getting an economic stimulus bill passed in Congress, getting a major health care overhaul passed in Congress, getting a major financial reform bill passed in Congress, and fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq."

"It's the climate scientists' fault because they allowed their emails to get illegally hacked, and even though the emails didn't undermine the actual science of climate change, they led to the (mis)perception that climate science was in doubt."

Twisted logic at best; disingenuous at worst.

Why didn't the climate bill pass? A lot of people have ideas and interests that are aligned against passing a climate bill. Seeing what's in front of your nose is a constant struggle.

 

NOM DE GUERRE 1967

2:27 PM ET

July 26, 2010

In front of your nose?

DCHONG, Do you know how many vibrational modes the CO2 molecule has, or how pressure broadening of an absorption line works? I'm guessing no. So don't get to carried away telling people that climate change is in front of their collective nose. FYI, I'm not a denier, I just don't think that things are quite as simple as those on either side of this issue would like you to believe.

 

SCOTTM2009

5:00 PM ET

July 26, 2010

it failed because it was crap

The bill failed because it was garbage, just as every major bill of the Obama administration has been crap. In the healthcare overhaul Obama paid no attention to the ,core problem - cost - and instead fixated on making youngsters pay for old people, then threw in a govt takeover of the student loan industry. His financial bill did not address any of the main causes of the economic collapse, but instead focussed on a govt takeover of the financial system. This bill is similar - it does not limit itself to cap and trade - but instead is filled with all manner of other crap that the media never bothers to mention.
Even so, cap and trade would be a tough sell in America because the faith in "the international scientific community" has been severely damaged by the antics of East Anglia, Pachauri's misuse of his position and the IPCC's obvious politicization.
The Environmental Movement has been damaged by the ridiculous exaggerations and outright lies they tell over and over, such as the 'endangered polar bear' whose populations are actually increasing.

When the pro AGW crowd acts honestly and proves their case transparently, then maybe someone will listen to them again. For now, they all look like a bunch of hucksters and thieves - especially Al Gore, who has been using this whole thing to make himself rich while his own carbon footprint resembles that of a midsize town.

 

WILDTHING

7:46 PM ET

July 26, 2010

anti-climactic acts

So now the severe weather comes once again to Washington DC where no one listens and no one sees.... back in the days of the dust bowl however as they were debating dust bowl relief they did see the skies get dark with dust and voted in the measure... it used to be that seeing was believeing but no more...

 

SOMO

6:00 AM ET

July 27, 2010

Nomdeguerre the formula for

Nomdeguerre the formula for vibrational modes is 3N-5 (linear) so in the case of CO2 it should be 4 vibrational modes. They are important because molecules with V-modes are able to absorb and radiate IR which causes Global warming. So now what does this have to do with understanding whether the collective world knows if climate change is happening.

There seems to be a general consensus in the world and any reader with a little bit of research skill would know that there is a very broad consensus amongst people who know about V-modes that Climate change is dangerous and something needs to be done.

"Stuart Eizenstat argued that climate change legislation would not in fact harm the economy or destroy jobs despite claims to the contrary. This statement is not followed by any argument. If the goal is to reduce the consumption of carbon based fuel, I see the only options as reducing demand via taxation etc."

I see a statement "despite claims on the contrary "but no proof, this does seem like you are using the same kind of statement used by the author to criticise and disprove the author. There are two sides to this argument please do read them both then form an opinion and then debate.

having said that here is my opinion.
Moving towards a more Efficient energy consumption pattern should not be seen as a negative for anyone. The first step should be rapid implementation of energy efficiency measures. Force industry, households, Business to become more efficient.

Fossil fuel is a limited resource and it is running out. The country controlling the RE manufacturing and R&D scenario will become very powerful. dependency on dwindling resources puts huge pressure on the economy because of rising prices, and sometimes propels countries into wars that can be expensive and politically / geopolitically catastrophic.

From my point of view I am just surprised that a rich country would not rapidly move towards ensuring that Green technology is promoted in the country so that it does not lose out on the Tech race and i find it overwhelmingly stupid that any country which is dependant on foreign energy resources would not push hard for efficiency not only to reduce costs but also to increase energy security.

It is clear to me that today both China and India are rapidly overtaking the US on green tech, clearly the global power is poised to shift. The US bill might have been a step (small one) in the right direction.

 

NOM DE GUERRE 1967

9:48 AM ET

July 27, 2010

Thanks for Making My Point

Actually the CO2 molecule has three vibrational modes: bending, stretching, and asymmetric stretching, and now let me explain what this has to do with the problem. First, I 'm asking that people not take the position that if you disagree with the global warming theory or even question or wish to discuss some of the physics you're a bad person (go read a comment board on the Israel/Palestine question and see how far blind adherence to your position and name calling gets a debate). Because apparently very few of the people doing the name calling understand it themselves (hence the question about the vibrational modes). Second, my point was that not understanding the physics and believing in global warming is fine and doesn't make you a bad person. Many people fly in planes and don't understand what makes them work, and doing so doesn't make them fools. It is fine to accept a scientific consensus (if that's what global warming has). But, and this is the key point, if you want to be the person advocating remaking the world economy in order to combat global warming, then the burden on you is greater. You should damn well understand the physics yourself. Don't be lazy and say its true because others say it true.

As per the question of whether climate change legislation would negatively impact the economy, you're correct that I did not post an entire thesis proving why it would. I simply made a brief point that the proposed mechanisms for combating climate change are not likely to do so. So I'll argue that I did in fact provide more support for my position than the expert I was referring to. Once again however, I would argue that the burden of proof on this point is on those advocating legislation.

An please don't respond as if I'm a paid oil company employee out to destroy climate change legislation. If the article had primarily taken a position that global warming was absolutely not real and there should not be any legislation, I would have written a comment calling those people out. I just prefer to see debate.

 

NOM DE GUERRE 1967

9:54 AM ET

July 27, 2010

One More Key Point

What my rhetorical question about the vibrational modes shows (which you very kindly helped me illustrate with your 4 vibrational modes response), is that if global warming is real then the "collective world" as you put it does not know that climate change is real. A small group of scientists knows and everyone else believes. I consider this a very important distinction.

 

NOM DE GUERRE 1967

4:01 PM ET

July 27, 2010

FYI, Two modes are degenerate

FYI, Two modes are degenerate and are therefore treated as one. I'm assuming you just Googled CO2 vibrational modes and copied and pasted what you found in order to appear knowledgeable.

 

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July 27, 2010

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SCOTTM2009

8:14 PM ET

July 27, 2010

consensus nonsense

Somo, science is not done nor settled by "consensus", and the reality is that the supposed "consensus" is only a few dozen scientists. There are a vast number of climate scientists who think the question is FAR from settled. The latest research from Australia is that Ice Ages are caused by the earth's wobble, and this could be the same. Theory from New Scientist is that cosmic rays create clouds, and the solar wind cycle affects cosmic ray penetration of the earth's atmosphere. According to Nasa-GISS (Hansen, et al) the majority of ice melt is caused NOT by temperature but by soot causing the ice albedo to change and absorb more light. That soot is not related to CO2, but to the Asian Brown Clowd - burning coal, wood, cowpies, etc.
I agree we should become more efficient.
I agree we should proceed with research into other modes of energy generation.
BUT - many other "green" tech, such as electric vehicles, are not really "green" at all, nor do they reduce wars. The wars will be over rare metals rather than oil - but the result is the same.
One of the best steps we are taking to reduce true pollution output is the clean coal initiative - Bush funded it while in office but envirowackos acted like he was screwing a panda on tv.

 

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3:05 PM ET

August 3, 2010

It is not surprising. They

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BUFFALO09

2:46 AM ET

August 6, 2010

Who Killed the Climate Bill? Easy......Phil Jones.

Ignoring obvious realities may also be considered as engaging in "intellectually dishonest" behavior. Climate bill dead.....that's great news as the economy was about to be taken off of life support, permanently.

 

DR. SARDONICUS

10:06 PM ET

August 6, 2010

Who is killing the climate?

You and I are, with our o so fashionable, bell jar vacuum ideologies. We are soooo sophisticated, smothering ourselves in pataphysics!

 

OCEAN

7:25 AM ET

August 16, 2010

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