The Georgia Syndrome

Nevertheless, Georgia has not yet had the chance to work its voodoo on Obama, and Georgians fret that this dispassionate and unfamiliar figure is not the type to succumb to the Syndrome. Insiders worry that while Michael McFaul, the National Security Council (NSC) official responsible for Russia and Eurasia, is philo-Georgian -- McFaul once worked in Georgia for the National Democratic Institute -- Denis McDonough, Obama's longtime advisor and McFaul's superior at the NSC, is a cold-hearted realist. Outsiders ask whether Obama has discarded the principle of "Eurocentrism," which is code for "Western values," or whether he is prepared to sacrifice Georgia to the reset with Russia.

Like Israelis, Georgians are plagued by the uneasy sense that their claims on the United States are moral rather than strategic. Yakobashvili makes the wild assertion that the Russian presence in the South Caucasus threatens NATO's commitment to stopping terrorism, organized crime, and nuclear proliferation -- he says that Russian passports issued to Ossetians have been found on Chechen separatists -- but the truth is that the current stalemate is hardly destabilizing. When I asked Irakli Porchkhidze, deputy secretary of Georgia's national security council, why the West should pressure Russia to withdraw from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, he said, "Russia has violated the principle of the inviolability of borders; Russia has engaged in ethnic cleansing. Are these not human rights issues?"

The answer is yes, mostly. The ethnic cleansing in question occurred chiefly during the savage civil war of the early 1990s, when forces on all sides committed atrocities. But though disputes remain over who fired the first shot in 2008, in the course of the war Russia violated Georgia's territorial integrity as brutally and unequivocally as Iraq did Kuwait's in 1990. And despite signing a cease-fire agreement requiring both sides to withdraw from the disputed region, Russia has maintained thousands of troops in the region, held the territories as dependencies, and flaunted its contempt for the agreement by moves like the announcement of the S-300, which serves no conceivable defensive purpose. "Our air force has like three and a half planes," Yakobashvili said to me. "What are they going to shoot down -- UFOs?"

Georgia really does pose a problem for its friends. Most of its neighbors in the post-Soviet space have knuckled under to Russia's demand for regional hegemony. Georgia, defiantly, has not. Many of those not wholly under the spell of Georgia Syndrome have urged Saakashvili to stop taunting Russia and its volcanic prime minister, Vladimir Putin; to put aside his aspirations to join NATO; and to mute his strident nationalism. In a recent Financial Times op-ed, Thomas de Waal, a regional expert, suggested that Russia is seeking its own "reset" with the West, which could well include reconciliation with Georgia, but added that such change would be impossible so long as Saakashvili, "the sworn enemy of Moscow," as de Waal put it, remained in office. (His tenure runs to 2013.)

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GEORGEKZ

12:20 AM ET

August 14, 2010

Never succumb to any

Never succumb to any syndromes, be they Georgian or Pakistani. You will find below why.
1) “But what will it do if Russia simply refuses to withdraw from territories seized in an illegal and unjust war?”
There has been extensive evidence that the 2008 war in South Ossetia was launched by the Georgian military, with President Saakashvili heavily relying on the irresponsible Bush administration already embroiled in two highly risky military ventures in the Middle East. Or do you mean to say that the genocide of peaceful Ossetians is a legal and just cause?
2) “…Saakashvili's central role in the 2003 "Rose Revolution" that brought democracy to Georgia, and Saakashvili to power”.
It has been the conventional wisdom that democracy cannot be brought to a given country as a result of an import operation. The mere fact that Saakashvili has been supportive to date of the US presence in the Caucasus does not testify Georgia’s commitment to democracy, as to be a democracy is not tantamount to being the US ally. Look deeper, and you will find all the traits of an autocratic regime.
3) “… McDonough, Obama's longtime advisor and McFaul's superior at the NSC, is a cold-hearted realist”.
Thank God, there seems to be a realist in the Obama team. In these times of uncertainty about whether America will retain its standing of a really global power or not, its leadership should look at the world with realist eyes. The so-called Georgia Syndrome invented by Mr Traub may be characterized, in line with what he calls it, an incapacity to remain cold-blooded and self-possessed. But that’s not good.
4) “….as the second coming of David the Builder, the great 12th-century Georgian leader he has vowed to emulate”.
Who did Saakashvili try to emulate when his army was invading South Ossetia?
5) “A McCain administration might sacrifice arms control or Iran policy to the great cause of Georgia's sovereign integrity…”
Don’t even try to divine what McCain would do if elected President. He would sacrifice not only the thrust of American foreign policy but also the security of US citizens and America’s positions all around the world, just to promote Georgian democracy, or if you read between the lines, the amour propre of some of America’s favourite allies.
6) “…some kind of solution involving substantial autonomy might well be found”.
There have been attempts to agree on a certain level of autonomous rule for both regions of Georgia, but Tbilisi rejected all of them. Moreover, Russian peacekeepers were there to ensure that the truce would not be broken.

ACIDIC

8:24 AM ET

August 15, 2010

Genocide peacefull Osetians?

your propoganda goes too far, i dont think it serves your nations interests, you sound redicolouse, man!

Georgia had any right to fight separatism as Russia not only failed on its part as peaskipper, but procoked separatism by arming and supporting militants, how can peacekipper deliver to one side of the conflict pasports and security garanties?

if it was Osetian genocide, so how you call Russian actions in Chechnya?
I guess legitiment enti terrorist operation..

NICHOLASM

10:47 AM ET

Saakashvili didn't invade, he was defending villages

Mr. Georgekz, you are leading readers of the magazine to the wrong direction. Who invaded South Osetia, Saakashvili or Russia? You are talking about Saakashvili and Georgia as a neighbor of the Tskhinvali region (called by Russia S.Osetia). The region is integral part of Georgia and will never been taken by Russians. You are talking about Saakashvili as if he had begun war with so called S.Osetia. On August of 7 when shoot out began, there were Russian troops stationed in all the region. Moreover, so called peace keepers actually where playing into the hands of separatists and this was known to everyone.
You don't know what is term "invasion". Invasion is movement of troops of one country to the territory of the other sovereign state. That was done by Russians, even more they occupied more territories of Georgian soil outside of war theatre and still remain there and build bases.
Russians military forces are the only cause of hundreds of thousands of refugees expelled from S.Osetia and other seperatist region Abkhazia.
Don't forget that these fact are very serous facts of violations of human rights by Russian and its puppet governments in the regions of Georgia. After all that you dare to criticize Saakashvili.

GEORGIAN

10:41 AM ET

August 16, 2010

genocide of peaceful Ossetians is

Here has been extensive evidence that there was no GENOCIDE, Do you have some evidence?? not Rumoured, but facts?
What about 2000 civilians "killed in Cxinvali "on first day of war??
Where is Mr. Churkin with his propaganda??? "2000 killed it is enough for you?""
There is a lot evidence which proves that there was Ethnic Cleaning in Georgian villages by Osetian and Russian army.

The territory called now "South Osetia" always been and will be territory of our country. If you have some doubts about it you can read history books, Not Georgian, not Russian and of course not "South Osetian"!

Now what about who invaded and where?? Do you know what is meaning of aggression?

" Definition of Aggression, United Nations General Assembly Resolution 3314 (XXIX).

Article I

Aggression is the use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State."

Before war Borders of Georgia (included "south osetia") was recognized by Russia as well. So it means that Russia used armed force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State.

D.ONISHCHENKO

6:04 PM ET

August 20, 2010

Georgians' first action on

Georgians' first action on 08.08.08 was eliminating of Russian peacemakers. 11 of them were killed during the first hours. This caused Russia's military response, and i'm afraid we can say that defending peaceful Ossetians was only the second cause (though it's disputable whether it is more immoral to attack peacekeepers or farmers).

It seems one must just keep a common sense to find out what could be the reasons of the sides. It's politics and not a dramatical piece, unfortunately. Western propaganda tries to represent the conflict as a drama with Russia as 'insane criminal' while Russian propaganda represents it as a drama with USA as a 'cunning criminal'. But the fact is that Russia had enough problems to have no need for war while G.W.Bush and friends tried to do their best to divert attention from Iraq and other evident failures.

STEPKAY8

7:14 AM ET

How can Mr. Traub not

How can Mr. Traub not hesitate in calling the 2008 crisis an 'illegal act of war' by the Russians. Yes, it is true that there is still debate as to who 'fired the first shot', however just as georgekz said, there is an overwhelming amount of evidence suggesting that Georgia was the first to fire (which really should settle the debate).
An estimated 80-90 percent of the people who live in Abkhaziya and S. Ossetia are not only Russian passport holders, but their pensions come from the Russian government (since the Georgian government refuses to give them any money). Allegations can be made as to why the Russians are so eager to support these separatists, but the bottom line is that Russians on Georgian territory were fired upon, and Russia has every right to respond to an attack on its country's citizens. If the Mexican government were to fire upon and kill hundreds of American citizens living in Mexico, The United States government would surely respond with force (and rightly so). Any government initiated attack on citizens from a certain country is a clear act of war, so mr. Traub is implying that the US government should criticize Russia's 'violation of Georgian national sovereignty' and stand by Georgia after having murdered innocent Russian citizens. Unfortunately thats exactly what president Bush did, and it was a devastating for US foreign policy.
Even if Russia's response to an attack on its own citizens can somehow be regarded as "an illegal and unjust war" the United States, (and Bush of all people) should be last one to demand that Russia stops its acts of 'illegal and unjust warfare'. After turning a blind eye on the UN's demands and justifying the killing of hundred's of thousands of innocent people based on an assumption (which was absolutely wrong) the US has no place in blaming other nations for illegal acts of war (especially when they aren't).
President Obama should do exactly what he's doing, focus on the US's relationship with Russia, and 'support' Georgia but not against Russia. President Obama should avoid condemnation of Russia's protection of its citizens like the plague if he wants the respect of the international community. Otherwise, after the Iraq war, if the United States continues to endlessly accuse other nations of violating international law, then it will certainly come out as the most hypocritical nation in the history if international politics.

11:05 AM ET

Who are Russian citizens?

Who are Russian citizens? S.Osetians or Abkhazians? All of them are Georgian citizens. How they were given Russian passports? Do you know these facts, you don't know and now write about how "bloody" Georgians were killing peaceful Russian citizens. All the Russian passports were given to them in violation of international norms. Can you imagine US giving Mexicans US passports (as it was done by Russia in S.Osetia and Abkhazia) and than claiming part of Mexican territory saying that it is defending US citizens in Mexico.

LITTLEMANTATE

11:02 AM ET

What international norms, Nicholas?

Passports have been given out to ethnic groups on a historical basis by imperial powers (look at the French). The Ossetes and Abkhazians are historically subjects to the predecessor states of the RF (Soviet Union and Tsarist empire).

August 18, 2010

To answer your question, yes

To answer your question, yes about 80% of South Ossetians and Abkhazians are Russian passport holders thus making them Russian citizens. And yes, it is a violation of international law to hand out passports however the Georgian government refused to give these people aid (pay for their pensions, provide them with welfare, fund public projects in their region) and because of that any other nations willing to provide these people with simple necessities their own government refuses to provide them with has every right to let these people become citizens of that country. Long story short, the Georgian government was ignoring the basic needs/rights of these people, and the Russians decided to do the job instead, that gives them every right to become Russian. More inportantly, this was done in the early 90's, you make it sound as though the passports were handed out a week before the strike. If people wanted something to be done about this 'violation of international law' why didn't they act when the passports were first handed out? Why do they suddenly bring it up now, more than 15 years later when the Georgians need an excuse for attacking Russian passport holders. Those passports were not handed out so the Russians could defend their case of an attack on the Georgians. The bottom line remains that Russian citizens were fired upon, and the Russian government has every right to a response.

THEJADEDCYNIC

7:32 PM ET

Let's Hope Obama has Been Inoculated against 'The Syndrome"

While hardly guilty of nostalgia for the good old days of the Cold War, the world did have a certain logic then. The West and the Warsaw Pact had clearly defined spheres of interest, and despite serious skullduggery int he Third World, the powers mainly respected each other's near abroads. With the end of the Cold War, things got out of whack; the centrifugal forces that held countries together under the cold war stasis became centripetal forces; spinning first regions, then entire countries out of Moscow's orbit. The West incited "Color Revolutions" throughout Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Republics, and Moscow had to suck it up and take it.
Now, with the US and NATO bogged down in Afghanistan and their economies in the doldrums, Moscow is emboldened. The SA300 system is meant for US F-18's and F-35's pressed into service by Georgia's pals here in Congress. (Thank God McCain isn't President; he'd sell the F-35 to Tblisi if he could!) And from where the Russian's sit, I can understand it. They lose Georgia as a buffer, their southern frontier becomes indefensible; it's like a 3 day drive by tank straight to Moscow with no natural barriers in sight! The Russians want depth; they have always needed strategic depth to defend against invaders from the East or West. Ideally, they would like 1500 miles between them and NATO's eastern edge. Today, NATO is in the Baltics; 150 miles from St.Petersburg. Anyone with even a casual grasp of strategy understands why they are acting the way they are; they see a wolf in sheep's clothing 150 miles from their second most important city!

5:05 PM ET

Today, NATO is in the Baltics; 150 miles from St.Petersburg.

Very interesting Idea..NATO is enemy of Russia, NATO is in Baltic but Russia does not dear to invade in those coutures, protected by NATO's army,,What Russia can do? OK lets invalid in to small Georgia occupy territories and "prove to world how strong Russia is?" :))

DDF

7:46 AM ET

It's up to Mr. Traub to

It's up to Mr. Traub to succumb to anybody's soft power but many people who spent some time in Georgia have always seen many things to worry, like virulent nationalism, sheer lunacy of politicians, and brainwashed public. I understand that these qualities probably endear Tbilisi to Washington, D.C., but in real world, they are dangerous, as the events of two years ago abundantly demonstrated.

8:08 AM ET

can you please gave examlpes?

some links or analises about "virulent nationalism", please?
i'm from Israel, lot of people from my country are visiting Georgia, especialy last 3-4 years and i hear from them the same emotional experience as described above..

8:49 AM ET

Usually, I don't do research

Usually, I don't do research on other people's behalf. Nonetheless, you can try a discussion in the comments to this video: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:3AMsUNWVTEYJ:www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3Dh9AwoFZ7Ufc+no+such+thing+as+abkhazia&cd=2&hl=ru&ct=clnk&gl=ru

"abhazians are georgians olso osetians to there no such thing us abhazia? indepentent because they are on georgian land since 1200bc !!!!!", and blah, blah, blah.

I simply entered something like "no such thing as akkhazia" in Google. This all is highly representative of Georgia's public debate. That's how they lost Abkhazia and Ossetia back in the early 1990s, actually.

10:57 AM ET

Who is brainwashed?

Mr or Mrs DDF, or PDF, apologize to Georgians!!!!!!!!!!!!

11:07 AM ET

I disagree about the brainwashed public

but I'd add some annoying machismo/misogyny as part of local color, of course the Russians have this in spades as well.

If what he wrote is true, about being charmed, Traub et al are as addle-brained as any 19th-century Brit with an Oriental fetish.

11:28 AM ET

I think you work hard to

I think you work hard to prove I was right.

11:29 AM ET

It's to Nicolas.

Usually, I don't do research on other people's behalf.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1uR95pQhsM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrQ0RX2UTuo&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j59BiLwdNO8&feature=related

Want more??? :)))

P.S. My advice: Don't try to search stone somewhere, when you can't see Rock near you!

1:29 PM ET

Here you can see "Most hospitable" Country Russia, which sends massages to world with title "From Russia with hate" :)))

2:23 PM ET

To Georgian:

I'm not sure I see your point. I didn't mean that the Georgians are Nazis. The guys whom I quoted are probably totally normal and well-meaning, just don't understand some simple things. When such people prevail, as is the case in Georgia (pardon me), they do more harm than a handful of Nazi freaks.

4:23 PM ET

DDF: just don't understand some simple things.

I'm not sure that you understand very simple thing.. Historically this two territories are part of Georgia (you can check with history books) and they are annexed by Russia for now.

Georgia is multi national country: Georgians, Azeris, Armenians, Russian, Osetians, Afxaz/Afsua, Jaws, Greek...etc and never ever Georgia had problems with them as a nation..or tried to make them Georgians..most of them even do not know Georgian language...can you imagine that in your country I can live and do anything without your language?

4:25 PM ET

TO DDF brainwashed public

When have you been in Georgia and where you seen brainwashed public??

one more question where do you live? I mean country

CONST_VAN_G

1:04 AM ET

? ?????? ????? ?? ???

? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ????????? ? ???? ??????? ?????? ? ????? ??????, ??? ????? ????? ??? ? ?????? ???????????? ??????? ??????, ? ??? ??????? ?? ??? ????? ? ??????, ?? ???????,? ?????? - ????? ???? "???????????", "???????????????" ??????????? ?? ?????? ??????????!

11:14 AM ET

Those people may have

Those people may have 'historically been Georgian', but in this day in age, they are Russian citizens with Russian passports. And if your government is so keen on keeping them Georgian, then why on earth did they refuse to give the people of Abkhaziya and S. Ossetia welfare, pensions, and other basic needs? An even better question, if you feel that this territory should remain Georgian (since thats what it has been for however many thousand years) then why did your government recognize the independence of Kosovo? Kosovo has historically been Serbian land for the couple thousand years.

11:00 AM ET

I was in Georgia, I didn't fall in love

but unlike Gog and Magog Bush and all those idiots pining for the Great Game days, a few of us are sane.

Saakashvili is just a Kavkaz snakeoil salesman of the Chelebi variety. Use him, if you must, but don't trust him or give him anything.

4:42 PM ET

Please found out how many people was in your country and did not fall in love?
You don't give a dam about them? :))
So why someone else should wary about in what you fell in Georgia?:))

ANDOR_1

11:48 PM ET

Three and a half planes

http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/pages/Mikheil-Saakashvili/9987452505?ref=ts

Saakashvili's page on Facebook recently published a video dedicated to the Georgian defenses.
Looks to me that they've got more than 3.5 planes!

F1FAN

2:15 PM ET

If Kossovo becoming independent

was justified and legal then so are Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In both cases a minority population were attacked by their erstwhile governments. The only difference is that Serbia is Russia's friend and Georgia is the US's friend.

8:04 PM ET

are you sure?

what about scale of albanian death and ethnicly cleansed Georgian majority population?

but it seems that world for you is much more simple

ZORRO

8:54 AM ET

Well...

As opposed to Kosovo the breakaway parts of Georgia actually managed to break away by themselves (in '91) rather than as the result of a US bombing campaign.
Clearly this was illegal and unjust ;)
This is not the first time that Traub is writing a less than objective piece. Now I take anything he says with a grain of salt.

RKERG

9:45 PM ET

if annexing parts of the Soviet Empire is the National Sport

...and that pretty much describes you, then you are a Putinista. Who needs hockey or football when you have ALL of these adventures waiting to explore? Can you say arrested development? Dimitri, please throw Putin and his cronies into a cold dark prison where they belong.

DEATHWARE

8:49 PM ET

August 27, 2010

Obama

sikis
pornolar

Foreign Policy Magazine

Inside National Security

Two years after a disastrous war, Tbilisi is booming, but Georgians remain on edge, for one overriding reason: They're not sure Barack Obama loves them enough.

BY JAMES TRAUB | AUGUST 13, 2010

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