Beyond City Limits

The age of nations is over. The new urban age has begun.

BY PARAG KHANNA | SEPT. / OCT. 2010

  

The scope of urban ambition today ranges from new business districts to special economic zones to entirely new cities never before on the map. Sitting down recently at a construction site on the banks of the Elbe River, I spoke with Jürgen Bruns-Berentelg, CEO of Hamburg's bold new HafenCity project. A veteran of Berlin's futuristically redesigned Potsdamer Platz, he has resuscitated Hamburg's neglected industrial waterfront and turned it into an efficient, job- and family-friendly island, seamlessly integrated into this revitalized German city. "We've moved from arbitrary to curated urban design," he told me confidently. Just as Hamburg was once a powerful trading linchpin of the medieval Hanseatic League because of its proximity to the Baltic Sea, HafenCity's ample new port terminals look to capitalize on changing trade patterns to capture a larger slice of the massive global shipping market. But HafenCity is also designed to house 21st-century industries. Global companies such as Procter & Gamble have moved their regional headquarters into buildings that are so ecoefficient that their toilets don't use water. "For both businesses and residents," Bruns-Berentelg pointed out, "moving to HafenCity is more than a rental decision -- it's a lifestyle choice." Officials from Rotterdam, Toronto, and other forward-thinking cities are coming to learn from HafenCity, whose residents are in a way the pioneers of urban renewal for the Western world, which doesn't have the luxury of building cities from scratch.

Africa, however, does -- and that's precisely what Stanford University economist Paul Romer is pushing. His "Charter Cities" initiative aims to help poor countries leapfrog into the urban age by embracing an idea much like charter schools: Set aside a plot of land, give it special administrative status and flexibility (as China did in leasing Hong Kong to Britain), and then step out of the way and let experts run it. Romer is in discussions with countries in Africa to find a candidate willing to provide the land for a pilot project; his plan has the potential to transform an entire country's fortunes. Whether or not his utopian and, to some, neocolonial dream goes anywhere, some places have already successfully experimented on their own: China's Guangdong province has had special economic zones for decades, meant to cut out hidebound bureaucracies in favor of business-friendly parastatal governance. Enclaves from King Abdullah Economic City in Saudi Arabia to Binh Duong in Vietnam are now copying the model.

Charter cities are a poor man's version of South Korea's $40 billion Songdo project, which promises to stand in a class of its own upon completion in 2015. Touted as the most expensive private development in history, Songdo is more than a new business district or economic zone; it will be the world's first sentient city, using advanced communications technologies to make life seamlessly interactive, from homes to schools to hospitals. Each wave of new residential and commercial blocks that comes on the market sells out almost instantly in connectivity-crazed South Korea. It also represents Asia's chance to turn its demographic concentration and burgeoning consumption from a threat to the planet into a model that can be re-exported to the developing world. The estimated 300 new cities that China alone has planned are a huge market opportunity for green developers like Gale International, which leads the Songdo project, to deploy ecofriendly city plans.

Indeed, Songdo might well be the most prominent signal that we can -- and perhaps must -- alter the design of life. Cities are where we are most actively experimenting with efforts to save the planet from ourselves. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton has brought together mayors from 40 large cities to build a network of best practices for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Vertical farming, long in vogue in Tokyo, is spreading to New York; the electric mass-transit system of Curitiba in Brazil is being copied in North America; Cisco is embedding sensors in Madrid's traffic signals to make the city traffic-free. The consulting firm McKinsey recently estimated that if India pursues urbanization in an ecoefficient manner, it will not only make the country a healthier place, but add an estimated 1 to 1.5 percentage points to its GDP growth rate.

In this way, a world of cities can spark a cycle of virtuous competition. As geographer Jared Diamond has explained, Europe's centuries of fragmentation meant that its many cities competed to gain an edge in innovation -- and today they share those advances, making Europe the most technologically developed transnational zone on the planet.

What happens in our cities, simply put, matters more than what happens anywhere else. Cities are the world's experimental laboratories and thus a metaphor for an uncertain age. They are both the cancer and the foundation of our networked world, both virus and antibody. From climate change to poverty and inequality, cities are the problem -- and the solution. Getting cities right might mean the difference between a bright future filled with HafenCitys and Songdos -- and a world that looks more like the darkest corners of Karachi and Mumbai.

Dermot Tatlow/Panos Pictures

 

Parag Khanna is senior research fellow at the New America Foundation and author of the forthcoming How to Run the World.

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

4:34 AM ET

August 17, 2010

That's a lot of people.

These vast conurbations are arguably driven by population growth, the most useful equation for which is the ratio of food producing areas to global population. Environmental damage also ‘boosts’ population density. Such concentrations call for the technological ecosystems the article refers to and it is less the planners calling these into existence as the need calling for the planners.

Self-sufficient cities with political and economic power are only one aspect of a process that also calls for increased social conformity, requiring regulations and their enforcement by Authority and peer pressure. New regulations of the kind necessary for the coherent operation of large population concentrations can appear draconian to those of a more individualistic bent and initially give rise to opposition; parking regulations and the abolition of public smoking are examples. Although even the most dedicated smoker no longer considers the bans to be unacceptable intrusions on freedom and no one wants vehicles left higgledy piggledy all over the place, these are in fact erosions of personal freedom and as they grow more numerous so do the powers of those needed to enforce them. Aside from regulations enshrined in laws, there are also incalculable peer pressures towards conformity of behaviour, speech and even thought; consider the fate of Tiger Woods who broke, after all, no laws aside from causing unintended damage to a fire hydrant.

Beneath such burning issues as abortion, gay marriage, the economy, etc. which fill people’s heads, there is a deeper divide between those whose inclinations favour the self-sufficient individual and those who recognise the primacy of the community; the recent passionate divisions on Healthcare can perhaps be viewed as an example. There is rarely any logic to the preferences of either side since they arise from feelings rather than thought. The division may even have a Darwinian undertone and represent a splitting point in the evolution of our species, one lot moving towards a world of urban concentrations and the other staying outside it. Since they won’t envy each other and won’t interbreed, their different lifestyles may even lead to physiognomic differences over time.

Within these cities, necessary law enforcement authorities can easily become the support and tool of an elite, as they once were in Venice and are today in Singapore. Keeping unrest at bay and controlling anti-social influences requires cameras and ever more sophisticated surveillance systems, and censorship. Since they are capitalist entities, they also need an underclass for manual work. Impermanence and disorder are Nature’s natural states and, unless forcefully resisted, everything tends in that direction. I hate to put a dampener on optimism but dystopia simmering beneath totalitarian control would seem the more likely future for these cities.

Many years ago I encountered something by C S Lewis in which he wrote of the human species mutating towards a cooperative; away, as it were, from the bumblebee to the honeybee. In the 1950s the Duke of Edinburgh, among others, was warning about those social implications of continued population growth which are so visible most everywhere today.

 

ISHEFA

11:30 AM ET

August 21, 2010

Re: That's a lot of people

"Since they are capitalist entities, they also need an underclass for manual work. Impermanence and disorder are Nature’s natural states and, unless forcefully resisted, everything tends in that direction. I hate to put a dampener on optimism but dystopia simmering beneath totalitarian control would seem the more likely future for these cities. "

This “underclass” to perform the manual work of the elites is precisely why I am concerned about the voracious land grab by the global elites taking place in Africa as we speak. I envision a neo-colonial dystopian hell for the Africans as they are forced into an oppressive system of agrislavery; while living on the impoverished margins within their own ancestral homelands.

I am glad that I have more years behind me, than ahead of me. Millions in the next generations with have no understanding of how to live with nature, farming or general self-sufficiency from land. There is no way that I find this imagined "utopia" of megacities and the like anything less than a nightmarish hell on earth. God help us.

 

ABHISHEK SURYAWANSHI

2:48 AM ET

August 21, 2010

Inspiring Better cities and citizenship.

Article worth sharing with everyone.
Inspiring Cities and citizenship..
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DANDAPANI

6:49 AM ET

August 21, 2010

But...

But what about those of us who despise cities? I don't even like to "visit" them, let alone be trapped living in one. To me, only rats and Democrats seem to love cities. Curious correlation. Look at the current voting patterns of those living in Chicago, DC, NY, etc...

 

KROYALL

10:38 AM ET

August 21, 2010

Totally agree

In the US, most people prefer to live outside of cities. The sad fact is most urban areas in this country are failing to one degree or another. Public safety is not good, infrastructure and services are inferior, schools worse, more taxes and regulations making doing business harder, and even the urban environment itself. I have no desire to live in a concrete and asphalt jungle.

If not for immigration, our population growth would be flat. There is simply no need to herd everyone into large cities. And that is the only way it would happen, is by totalitarian measures to deny people their freedoms and property rights. I would die before I would submit to that.

 

MERICAN

3:48 PM ET

August 21, 2010

Wrong...

The population lives in the cities. Those in the hinterland are the minority. It is simply the way it is.

 

ABHISHEK SURYAWANSHI

10:48 PM ET

August 21, 2010

I know, but its OUR

I know, but its OUR responsibility...

We need to inspire better cities and citizenship...

 

BROMIOS

7:46 AM ET

August 22, 2010

But

The author writes "Cisco is embedding sensors in Madrid's traffic signals to make the city traffic-free". Presumably this is talking about a automatic traffic management such as UCL's SCOOT or the Australian SCATS. No automatic traffic management system can make a major city traffic free, but only make moderate improvement to travel times. If the author is exaggerating so grossly on this point, it makes me wonder if much of the rest is hyperbole.

 

MERICAN

11:16 AM ET

August 22, 2010

Only...

Snakes and Republicans live in the sticks.

 

STEWART NUSBAUMER

9:35 AM ET

August 21, 2010

Insanity Reigns

I'm curious, does anyone else believe this is satire? The future this writer yearns for is one ghastly pit of ignorance slaving away under the heel of dictatorships. Notice how he just dismisses political rights? Is this piece for real? Did some globalist clowns recently buy FP? Nothing matters except humans crammed like cattle into squalor to deliver power and wealth to a subnational entity and this detestable horror we're supposed to believe is progress? As I said, is piece a joke? It has to be!

Take just one example. How can anyone look at Manila as anything other than a pathetic mess that the world with all its energy and wisdom must work to never repeat? That is only 1 of several hundred -- thousands! -- of urban cesspools on our planet. And this writer is all excited that this is the model for the future?

Yes, the world is evolving. Huge changes are taking place, some good and some bad. But the bad is not the good. And there are lots of mixed trends and forces that are crisscrossing and producing conflicting effects. One is the changing nature of the urban areas in the West, which the author seems clueless about. Being obsessed with quantification and economics and power he leaves everything else in his wacky dustbin of history.

I sit right now not in my Manhattan apartment, but in my second residence in the mountains. This is a peep into the future of cities, hopefully anyway. As the cultural and technological distance between the cities and the countryside shrink, both regions will become viable options offering very different advantages. This writer sees only the old Third World model on a larger and more powerful scale. Yes, this probably is the future for certain parts of this world, unfortunately. But that does not appear to be the wave of the future. Already, the Chinese are screaming about their urban cesspools. And soon alternatives will evolve.

There is a reason why Europe does not have these mega-cities of squalor. A good reason.

 

MERICAN

3:51 PM ET

August 21, 2010

A fantasy world...

Megacities already exist, Tokyo, New York, Mexico City, etc. They are centers of commerce and culture. But they are not the future of governance. Google just bought an online "currency" company. Welcome to dystopia.

 

KDAV

11:44 AM ET

August 22, 2010

A Comment

It is an interesting and optimistic view of the future. So much so one suspects the author is writing a promotional brochure for corporate entities involved in creating these new urban utopias. The history of the development of these big urban centers would not seem to offer reasonable support for this rosy view. The fact is that the most splendid urban environments have always existed in symbiosis with hideous working-class slums; think Park Avenue and Hell’s kitchen in New York or West End and White Chapel in London. This scenario is unavoidable. So you have a future of an Urban Aristocracy living in gilded prisons to protect themselves from the masses they feed on. Allow me to ask: Who then becomes the real rulers? The Security forces who protect those Aristos and suppress the masses and obviously become dictators by virtue of necessity. This will be a dystopia indeed. But, having said this I would question the whole premise since demonstrably as far back as ancient Greece and Rome the big urban centers always exist in symbiosis with the hinterland.

 

JMWELESKI

4:01 PM ET

August 23, 2010

A few comments...

A few points,

1) The author describes a neo-feudal future. Of course, neo-feudalism will not be an exact replica of Middle Age feudalism, but the parallels are certainly striking.

2) One notable omission is a discussion of food supply. Yes, the author mentions vertical farming, but I don't think anyone would argue that vertical farming will ever rival traditional farming with regard to output. Thus, we appear to be left with the prospect of extraordinarily populous and expansive cities that are almost wholly reliant upon food imports.

Yes, I realize that modern cities are almost wholly reliant upon food imports and this has yet to cause much of a catastrophe, but I can't help but ponder the prospective implications of peak oil on this city-based societal structure. Not only would oil (and resource) scarcity greatly increase transportation costs, but it would also increase general farming costs. In other words; how would a city of 25 million respond to a three-fold increase in food prices? A five-fold increase? A ten-fold increase? I imagine the results would be catastrophic.

That's why I find it so surprising that the global population is in a headlong rush to move into cities just as the very resources which enable our modern, globalized lifestyle are dwindling. Maybe I am completely misreading the trajectory of our economic, political, and natural systems, but I think it is much safer to bet upon local, relatively self-sufficient communities rather than overpopulated super-cities that have to import almost all food, water, and natural resources.

A skyrocketing human population only compounds this oil/resource scarcity problem.

3) The "future" has already arrived in China. A number of enormous cities (full of somewhat affluent citizens) dot the landscape while the countryside is chock full of (hundreds of millions of) subsistence farmers. From this peasant stock comes much of the industrial workforce; the folks who receive barely livable wages for their 70+ hours of tedious toil each week. There are three classes; the extravagantly wealthy, the middle-class, and the abjectly poor folks. Oh, and the society is totalitarian.

I'm not sure if this is a future to which we should aspire.

 

JRDUNASSIGNED

8:32 PM ET

August 26, 2010

Well...

An interesting article, if nothing else.

 

NAIUY

6:40 AM ET

September 15, 2010

An interesting and well

An interesting and well written post. Thanks for sharing. As commented above, The authorities certainly seem to have enough to keep him in jail for the next few decades, but if the past year is any indication, it will take more than prison to keep this tycoon away from the company he founded." Search for m2ts converter ? flv to wmv converter. Hulu Downloader