
The world economy reached a major milestone Monday when China officially became the world's second-largest economy, displacing Japan, which has held the title for more than four decades. The recognition of China's new status came after the Japanese government reported that, after a quarter of slow economic growth, the country's annual gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to be around $1.28 trillion, slightly below China's $1.33 trillion. Do all countries use the same method for estimating GDP?
They're supposed to. The System of National Accounts (SNA), a set of guidelines developed jointly by the United Nations, the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the World Bank, specifies the methods by which countries measure the size of their economies.
There are two main methods for estimating GDP. One involves looking at production. This includes the value of the goods produced by all the firms in the country, the added value of government work projects, and -- particularly in developing countries -- the value of goods produced for personal consumption, like the crops grown by subsistence farmers. Not all wealth counts toward GDP. For instance, if you build a new house, that's considered value added to the economy. If a pre-existing house increases in value, the owner may be better off, but the country's GDP is unaffected. Of course, companies often have a vested interest in exaggerating their profits, so reliable figures can sometimes be tough to calculate.
The other method of calculating GDP involves measuring total consumption of products by a country's population. Since it relies mostly on household surveys, this method also has flaws. People tend to underreport the amount they spend on alcohol and cigarettes, for instance. But hopefully, the two measures should come up with close to the same number and when the results from the two approaches are compiled, they should give you a pretty good idea of the size of a country's economy.
(Some dispute whether GDP is a useful indicator at all, given that currency fluctuations can make comparisons between countries unreliable. According to purchasing power parity numbers, which compare economies based on the absolute price of a basket of goods, China actually overtook Japan a decade ago.
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