The Beginning of the End

The U.S. combat presence in Iraq is over, and it is likely all troops will be gone by the end of next year. But strong support will still be needed in the weeks and months to come, lest the country slip back into chaos and conflict.

BY JOHN D. NEGROPONTE | AUGUST 19, 2010

On Thursday, the last U.S. combat brigade to leave Iraq crossed into Kuwait, fulfilling President Barack Obama's pledge to withdraw all but 50,000 American troops from a country with which the United States has become intimately, and painfully, familiar over the last seven and a half years.

The remaining soldiers and marines will stay in Iraq until Dec. 31, 2011, for training and other support purposes. Although the possibility cannot be ruled out, it seems quite unlikely that their presence will be extended beyond the 2011 deadline. Political imperatives in both Iraq and the United States seem to work against this possibility, even though there are those in both countries who argue that a longer-term U.S. residual force is needed.

Having landed in Baghdad as U.S. ambassador to Iraq at the end of June 2004, I find it a truly remarkable and positive accomplishment that we are able to look to the day not too far off when Iraqi security forces will be able to assume full and complete responsibility for their country's security. At the time of my arrival, Iraqi security forces were, for all practical purposes, nonexistent. There was, for example, only one -- yes, one -- Iraqi army battalion and it was composed of various ethnic and sectarian elements. Today, there are some 600,000 Iraqi security forces and important strides have been made toward giving Iraq's security organizations a national rather than partisan character. This is no small achievement; it has taken seven years to accomplish and only after some false starts and perilous moments.

In the wake of the Samarra Mosque bombing in 2006 and the ensuing sectarian strife, those of us concerned with Iraq could not have imagined the dramatic reversal of fortunes that would occur in the ensuing two years -- the death of al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the liberation of Basra by the Iraqi army, and the extension of the government's authority to the country as a whole. By 2008, these improvements had given the government of Iraq the necessary self-assurance to negotiate the withdrawal arrangements that are now being implemented.

For More

The Last Act:
Images of a still-fragile Iraq

But can Iraq really remain stable once U.S. troops have completely withdrawn? While there are no guarantees, the prospects for Iraq's security and stability beyond 2011 look as good or better than they have at any time in the recent past. The Iraqi army now has close to 200 trained combat battalions, a formidable increase from the somber days when I arrived in 2004, and they are spread throughout the country. The specter of sectarianism poisoning the ranks of Iraqi military and police forces remains the single most serious threat to be guarded against. But progress since the 2007 surge in nurturing the army and police as truly national institutions has been encouraging. Vigilance and political maturity will be needed to ensure that this positive trend continues.

ALI YUSSEF/AFP/Getty Images

 

John D. Negroponte was ambassador to Iraq from June 2004 to April 2005, the first director of national intelligence under President George W. Bush, and later, deputy secretary of state. He is now vice- chairman of McLarty Associates, a leading international strategic advisory firm in Washington, D.C. 

XMASTER4000

9:09 PM ET

August 19, 2010

Don't all world politics in

Don't all world politics in the end resume to this? "Hoping for the best"

 

FREETRADER

11:22 PM ET

August 19, 2010

Wrong reference point

I suspect the editors went for the helicopters since it is such a famous image. In fact, the question is "did we just have a 1973 Paris Peace Accords moment?" Obviously, the US troop withdrawl from SVN happened two years before the final North Vietnamese offensive (which, of course, broke the agreement, and which, of course, was a direct result of the US pulling out of SVN).

 

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

4:18 AM ET

August 20, 2010

Huh?

"lest the country slip back into chaos and conflict.". Surely Iraq has been in chaos and conflict since the invasion and still is.

 

ISNRBLOG

1:46 PM ET

August 20, 2010

Who are you kidding, NEGROPONTE?

Once the US is gone, Iraq will fracture due to sectarian and tribal factions. Not to mention that Iran will surely be in htere helping out. Iraq is lost and again, the US cuts and runs due to a chicken s**t President. No one has the guts to do what must be done, so we tip toe away hoping other countries won;t notice. Who can trust the US anymore? Our leaders are pathetic wimps, particularly Obama. The Dems loose Congress in Nove and good bye Obama in 2012. Chris Cristie for President!!!

 

JAYDEE001

1:53 PM ET

August 20, 2010

The comparison to Saigon is inaccurate and misleading

I don't know why Foreign Policy used this as a lead to the story. Perhaps, like Vietnam, this is a war that never should have been fought. The whole Iraq debacle was based on a lie, perpetuated through our hubris, and finally - through exhaustion rather than success - is drawing to a rather unsatisfactory close. The loss in lives and treasure is a tragic cost to our nation and to those who were sacrificed for the egos of our leaders.

Negroponte is hardly a reliable source about the state of Iraqi politics or stability. He was one of the many neo-con collaborators who justified this needless and wasteful travesty of a "great power" military intervention into the affairs of a third-world nation.

Whatever becomes of Iraq, we need to let the Iraqi people decide their own fate. Whether Iraq completes the process of becoming a modern parliamentary democracy should be of little concern to us. We (1) got rid of their dictator for them; (2)created the opportunity for the majority Shiite to take control of their political apparatus and the military; (3) gave them a constitution that ought to preserve basic individual rights; and (4) bought off the Sunni insurgents so they could have relative peace. We have now begun to get out of the way - although 50,000 troops still there as "advisors and trainers" and untold thousands of private mercenaries working for the US State Department hardly qualifies as abandoning Iraq to its own devices. If they are unsuccessful, I hardly see how that is any basis for any soulful mourning on our part.

Success or failure, from this point forward, is up to the Kurds, Shiite and Sunni factions and their elected leaders. If they want to join the modern world, they have an opportunity. If they fail, it should not be because of any error on our part. If they cannot or do not make it without our intervention, that is too dammed bad. If they are successful, I don't expect them to be grateful to the US and its allies in any case.

 

KITTYLYNN

3:54 PM ET

August 20, 2010

Iraq "war of choice" is a long-term drag on the economy

While it is good that we are getting out of Iraq, lets not forget that we paid a very high price -- that we will continue paying for decades -- in order to oust a bad dictator. The cost-benefit analysis doesn't look very weighted toward benefits considering it was a war of choice and not absolutely necessary to go in. Harvard Professor Linda Bilmes wrote an excellent piece in the San Francisco Chronicle this week about the long-term enduring costs of this war:

Read: http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-08-15/opinion/22220424_1_combat-troops-big-costs-disability-compensation

 

HUMPTYDUMPTY

7:50 PM ET

August 20, 2010

"War of Choice" - BOOYAH

The notion of doing a cost/benefit on Iraq is completely fatuous, as is what has been spent can be analyzed and isolated with any hope of a valid conclusion being arrived at. This "war of choice" misnomer is willfully forgetful of where the US was at the time the decision was made to invade Iraq. You choose to not remember the fear that another more devastating attack by AQ was feared, you choose to not remember that the "intelligence" communities in the US, UK, France and other nations all believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, you choose to forget that "reasonable" people like Colin Powell were convinced we needed to do this. Let's ignore the decade of sanctions that Saddam violated, the world-record bribery the invasion exposed (so much for relying on the UN) and the fact that the US set 50MM+ people free (Iraq and Afghanistan) and may well have helped begun the reformation of an entire culture (Arabs) and region (Middle East). Oh, I forgot the elimination of the nuclear prolification business being run by A.Q. Kahn. Of course none of this is worth anything so it probably wasn't worth bringing up anyway - my bad.

 

AARKY

4:13 PM ET

August 23, 2010

Negroponte's Iraq

Humpty Dumpty---Please fess up and admit that you are Cheney or one of his good ole boys. Just about every thing you used as justification to attack Iraq was found to be big fat whopper lies. Remember that 65 years after WWII, they are still tracking down war criminals from that period.

 

AARKY

4:31 PM ET

August 23, 2010

Negroponte's Iraq

In all of Negroponte's wishful blatherings he forgot to mention a number of things. He sat with George Tenet at the UN as Colin Powell, good soldier that he was, read off the lies that had been prepared by the White House. In fairness to Powell he had a number of his own State Department Intell men pick apart and throw out almost 30 additional bits of false intelligence before the speech.
The Iraqi Army only took back control in Basra with the help of 1000 US combat troops and artillery and jet fighters.
This man's fixation with the idea of keeping the largest US embassy in the world in Baghdad fully staffed with a huge group of bureaucrats is quite obvious. If we were trying to impress the Iraqis with our sincerity, the staff should have been reduced drastically, at least 60%.The only Iraqis who would want to even talk to us would be the ones who want to get money. Even they hate our guts as most of the country does. I see the day that the Iraqi Army uses battle tanks that we have provided to kick the rest of the Americans out of the country and close down the embassy. Negroponte's smarmy "Let bygones be bygones" is not going to cut it with the Iraqis. They will hate us for the next ten generations for having invaded their country without just cause. The destabilization lead to the death of at least 100,000 people from violence alone, corruption on a grand scale, and the most basic services as electricity in short supply. My suggestion would be to fire and imprison the Princes of the Pentagon who have lost/stolen many biillions of dollars for infrastrucure rebuilding in Iraq. Turn that money over to the Iraqis for each project and release it as the projects are completed. Let the Iraqis do it because they have more than enough technical experts.

 

JOHNMAC

9:40 PM ET

August 25, 2010

Finally...

Its great to hear that finally we're going to be out of Iraq.. its dragged on way to long and to be honest i never really through it was going to workout anyway.

 

YARINSIZ

4:49 PM ET

September 9, 2010

Who can trust the US anymore?

Who can trust the US anymore? Our leaders are pathetic wimps, particularly Obama. The Dems loose Congress in Nove and good bye Obama in 2012. Chris Cristie for President!!!
seslisohbet

 

ADALINE PORTWOOD

3:25 AM ET

September 18, 2010

The Beginning of the End

The U.S. Combat presence in Iraq is over, and it's likely all troops will be gone by the end of next year. But strong support will still be needed in the weeks and months to come, lest the country slip back into chaos and conflict is insightful newspaper column and I think John D. Negroponte wrote some good ideas. "Combat brigade to leave Iraq crossed into Kuwait, fulfilling President Barack Obama's pledge to withdraw all but 50,000 American troops from a country with which the United States has become intimately, and painfully, familiar over the last 7 and a half years. The remaining soldiers and marines will stay in Iraq until Dec. 31, 2011, for training and other support purposes." We should be thankful that John D. Negroponte finally wrote an article as this one. My subject of concern is generally send flowers, remanufactured q2612a and auto car insurance, I simply wanted to say that I value the reflection behind the the beginning of the end newspaper column.

 

DANIELLA

3:18 AM ET

September 19, 2010

it's great to see one of US

it's great to see one of US troops leaving Iraq.? I hope the best to come. I think though there's going to be a civil war though...
Obama? needs to bring our young men and women home safely from Afghanistan now. Afghanistan is totally rezultate live unwinnable.