
On Aug. 31, four Israeli settlers were killed by Palestinian gunmen near the West Bank city of Hebron. Abu Obeida, the spokesman for Hamas's military wing, the Qassam Brigades, said the group "announces its full responsibility for the heroic operation in Hebron."
The killings suggest that Hamas will overreach in trying to gain political capital from widespread Palestinian opposition to the negotiations hosted by U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington this week. This may weaken Hamas at the expense of secular parties opposed to the format of the talks, but not necessarily to the gain of Fatah, the flagging party headed by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
The negotiations come on the heels of four months of failed "proximity talks," in which the Ramallah-based Palestinian leadership and U.S. special envoy George Mitchell were unable to productively engage the Israelis on any of the core issues of the dispute or even convince the Israelis to agree on an agenda for the talks. Abbas, like virtually all other Palestinian politicians, had insisted that Israel agree to basic parameters for negotiations and end continued settlement activity on occupied Palestinian territory. Having to climb down without any of his terms being met has emboldened other Palestinian leaders, parties, and organizations, which have united to denounce the talks.
As Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu head to the negotiating table, some observers are lamenting the Obama administration's failure to include Hamas in its diplomatic engagement efforts. But given the relative unanimity of so many groups opposing the talks in their current format, this complaint misses the point. Hamas leaders do not want to be part of negotiations because they are confident they will fail.
What defines "failed talks" for Hamas? On a practical level, Hamas would consider talks that entrench Fatah's authority over liberated territory at its expense as a failure. The concern over whether Palestine will have a pluralistic political system is one of great concern to Palestinians -- concern that has only been deepened by the continuing entrenchment of political power both in the Gaza Strip and in West Bank cities administered by the Palestinian Authority.
But when it comes to its views on a final settlement to the conflict, Hamas shares many of the same positions as other secular Palestinian parties, including Fatah. These groups similarly believe that any negotiations must end the occupation that Israel began in 1967 and ensure Palestinians' ability to exercise sovereignty over their state. Yes, Hamas has demanded the Palestinian right of return for millions of Palestinians and their descendants who were displaced before, during, and after Israel's creation in 1948, but the group has never suggested a practical means to obtain this goal. Hamas would certainly consider talks that "sign away" Palestinian rights as a failure. But again, this is a standard position of Fatah as well. This accordance of views suggests that, under the right conditions, Hamas's inclusion in a Palestinian national movement that endorses negotiations could potentially strengthen the chances for peace.
(True, Hamas, like the Israeli political parties on the right such as the governing Likud, have charters, party platforms, or constitutions that contradict their more reasonable publicly stated positions. However, waiting for ideological consistency in either case is probably counterproductive.)
Some in Hamas likely favor continuing its cease-fire with Israel and trying to reap political capital from the daily humiliations it expects Netanyahu to inflict on the Palestinian negotiators. Yet the Aug. 31 attack on settlers suggest that not everyone in the group believes the talks will fail on their own.
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