Time Bomb

The most difficult obstacle to making Middle East peace is the one that's ticking away from us.

BY SHMUEL ROSNER | SEPTEMBER 7, 2010

We all know what peace between Israel and the Palestinians should look like. It should be, well, peaceful. It should be peace with honor and security for all -- and states for all too, one for the Jewish people, one for the Palestinian people. It should be reached by adhering to the "Clinton parameters" / "Geneva Accord" / "Arab peace plan" -- take your pick.

We also know that the "peace process" between Israel and Palestine (which has yet to become Palestine, and is still a Palestinian Authority) is a very frustrating process. Some would assume that it is frustrating because of the bloodshed involved. But there are many other, bloodier conflicts that do not seem as frustrating. Others would assume it is frustrating because of the stubbornness of the parties involved. But being stubborn isn't always bad. Sometimes, when it is necessary and justified, stubbornness is the quality differentiating the Churchillian leader from the average ones.

Thus, the reason the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has been so frustrating is neither the blood nor the inflexibility of leaders. It is the fact that too many people have been led to believe that there's an easy solution to this complicated problem -- that too many people were led to believe that if only one real effort is made, if only Bush-Baker / Clinton-Albright / Bush-Rice / Obama-Clinton puts their foot down, if only settlers are evacuated, if only Hamas is tamed, if only incitement is stopped, if only courageous leadership is demonstrated -- then peace will be no problem at all. And it will come not just easy, but also fast. It is within reach. And all that is needed is to put the final touches on the long-ago-agreed-upon principles for solution.

If only.

Over the years, many people have been led to believe that the disagreements preventing the sides from reaching a solution could all be dealt with. There were inventive ideas for dealing with borders (land swaps), challenging ideas for dealing with security (monitors and observers), bold ideas for dealing with settlements (pull out), cooperative ideas for dealing with Jerusalem (international sovereignty), and creative ideas for dealing with refugees (compensation, resettling). Yet all those people were also habitually ignoring the one problem that no idea, bold or imaginative, can overcome: the problem of time.

It really is a time bomb, waiting to explode again and again. It is the gap reflecting the tendency of Palestinians to lose their famous patience and to want agreement and implementation "now" -- and the tendency of Israelis to lose their infamous impatience and to want agreement and implementation to be delayed until "some day" when "conditions are ripe." And it is not because of what some might assume: that Palestinians just can't tolerate one more minute of Israeli occupation, or that what Israelis are really after is an indefinite postponement of any resolution to the conflict. Palestinians have suffered under occupation for a very long time and can probably handle some more suffering. Most Israelis are tired of the conflict and have long ago gotten used to the fact that some of the land will not remain Israeli -- will have to be divided, shared.

The time gap in expectations then exists for a very different reason. It reflects both sides' deep (and to large extent justified) mistrust in one another: Israelis' reasonable mistrust that agreement will actually lead to peace -- Palestinians' understandable mistrust that Israelis will ever implement the agreed solution. The problem is that such mistrust leads to mirror-image desires. For the Palestinians, it means "now" -- because they can't have faith in any promise for a better future. For Israelis it means "later" -- only after they are incrementally and fully convinced that this time the Palestinians (and the rest of the Arab world) mean business and can handle business.

This time gap should be kept in mind as the two sides enter yet another round of negotiations with the world watching breathlessly, waiting for quick fixes and a happy conclusion of the conflict. It is a round that was reasonably greeted with great skepticism (as I've demonstrated and analyzed here), but later -- as always happens when ceremonies and celebratory summits blur realistic vision -- with much more hopeful tones. It should have been kept in mind when the American "mediator" narrows the window of opportunity from two years until agreement is reached to just one year. It should be kept in mind when the Israeli foreign minister -- for reasons unknown, and calculations incomprehensible to all outsiders and most Israelis -- outrageously decides that now is the time to redeclare his disbelief in the peace process. It should be kept in mind when Palestinian leaders unwisely turn an end-of-September deadline for a settlement freeze into an ultimatum.

MOHAMMED ABED/AFP/Getty Images

 

Shmuel Rosner is a columnist based in Tel Aviv, Israel. He blogs daily at Rosner's Domain.

BIFOCALPOINT

8:31 PM ET

September 7, 2010

What does Netanyahu really want?

Netanyahu is sticking to asking Abbas for recognition that Israel is a Jewish state. It is a diversion from the real story and makes the prospects for peace more complicated. See my full analysis at http://bifocalpoint.blogspot.com/2010/09/peace-talks-and-talks-and-talks.html

 

A BALANCED VIEW

11:49 PM ET

September 7, 2010

Cut Israeli off completely

Cut Israeli off completely until they comply with US demands, and pull all settlers and IDF back behind the green line .

This would result in Peace, and would reduce terror blowback against the US.The settlers would be unhappy, but who cares. Their fanatical hatred has caused so much death and suffering on all sides up til this point, their interests in the matter are utterly immaterial.

 

SAWADEE

2:45 PM ET

September 9, 2010

"Cut Israeli off completely"

Doesn't one have to be at least 12 to post here?

I mean, to suggest that cutting Israel off would result in ANYTHING but more repression on the Palestinians just shows the idiocy of those that call for such an act.

What idiots. Seriously. If America did that, then the Israelis would feel pushed against a wall and would then behave in a manner to guarantee as much as possible the safety of the Israelis, and their methods for doing that would make today's repression look like the good ol' days...

 

A BALANCED VIEW

4:18 PM ET

September 9, 2010

The settlements have

The settlements have absolutely nothing to do with the safety of Israeli citizens. They endanger Israeli citizens, tarnish Israels Image world wide, and inspire blow back terror against Israel and the US.

They are crushingly expensive to maintain, what with the army and occupation that is necessary to safeguard them and their growth, and the US has carried the cost of that. But when the average israeli has to choose between universal health care (which they can somehow afford, while still taking many billions from us a year) or helping fanatical setters ruin Israels chance of survival as a Jewish, state, I think their choice will be clear. The settlers will be left out to dry.

 

BILL888

1:57 AM ET

September 8, 2010

Palestine should be two countries instead of one

I am no expert in Middle East affairs. However, if States and Israel is serious about negotiation for peace, now is the best time. Since Hamas is in occupation and control of the Gaza Strip and West Bank is occupied by Fatah, Israel can make its best effort to negotiate with Fatah for West Bank and since Fatah has some history of negotiation, it may make sense for them to come to an agreement. If it is successful, it will a good model for Hamas to think about. By then, the problem gets smaller because the atmosphere for Hamas to negotiate is pressing. At the same time, Hamas and Fatah had split from the coaliton earlier which enable them for strategic negotiation. By then, Hamas is standing alone because West Bank has settled. It will make Hamas more isolated and the problem gets smaller if negotiation last longer. Also, if there is 2 countries, it still conformed to the UN initiated voted determination of founding a country for them. It will be easier for Israel because people traveling to each others' territory will need pastports.

 

OPEMILY

10:24 AM ET

September 8, 2010

So basically you're saying,

So basically you're saying, the Palestinians are at their weakest. Lets use this to our advantage? Israel will get everything it wants because the Palestinian leadership is too weak to object.

 

BILL888

2:35 AM ET

September 9, 2010

OPEMILY: Palestine is not at its weakest in Negotiations

I have no intention to say to take advantage of the separation of Gaza Strip and West Bank. I am not talking about war: may be it is true for war; but not for negotiation. In fact, it is the strongest point to make negotiation. Furthermore, some had said there are significant differences between the two groups, then it should be the strongest point. (Not that I want to separate them.) For example, if Israel holds four cards: #1, 2, 3, & 4 and it can only gave up two cards, say #2 &3. And Gaza the least it wants are cards #1 &2. West Bank wants least of cards #2 & 3. Now, together Gaza and West Bank want cards #1, 2, & 3. So, there will be no agreement from Israel with the combined Gaza and West Bank. But if they are separate in negotiation, West Bank and Israel will be in agreement and Gaza will have no agreement. So, after West Bank forms the country, then the remaining problem is smaller. At least there will be more peace than problem. Eventhough West Bank is a country now, it can still have a relation at whatever form it wants with Gaza Strip.

 

SAWADEE

2:50 PM ET

September 9, 2010

No...

What he's saying is that we may need to deal with the reality of the Fatah/Hamas schism.

While there is a schism, there can be no peace between Israel and the Pals because there can be no agreement without taking into consideration of Gaza's 1.5million Pals.

How are people missing this most simple and salient point?

In the long run, it's the Pals own fault that there is this schism. However Hamas started, however or whomever encourages the schism - it's still the fault of the Pals themselves. They need to take responsibility for their leaderships and demand peace.

Until then, there will be no peace.

Hamas yesterday launched mortars at a school in Israel.

How can Israel make peace with someone while that someone is actively engaged in terror while trying to kill the negotiator's children?

Could there have been a negotiation while Israel was bombing Gaza? No. So why can there be negotiation with a group that is bombing Israel?

 

BILL888

4:14 AM ET

September 8, 2010

TRANSTRIST: if you are an advisor to India and Chinese gov't

In the wildest dream, you are made to be an advisor to the Indian and/or Chinese governments regarding their dispute over a large area called the Arunachal Predesh by the Indian and called South Tibet by the Chinese. Both believe they have legitimate claim to the area. The Indian believe they inherited from Britain and the Chinese had long history of claim there. Here the Chinese included the Tibetans and other racial groups. Also, there was a war over this area in 1962 with Chinese briefly occupied this area and unilaterally withdraw to leave this dispute to the later generations. What is your advise to them in resolving this disputes?

Another question?if you (all Palestinians) in the disputed area are invited to settle in China with the same amount of land in Gaza Strip and West Bank to live in the Muslim region of the Huan, or to the Xinjiang region of the Uygur, what do you say to that ? Can you give me some reason to your response?

 

SAWADEE

2:55 PM ET

September 9, 2010

TRANSTRIST...

I would also like to point out for you what happened the last TWO times that Israel left an area that they occupied without a real peace plan implementation.

Lebanon - Hizbollah moves in and attacks Israel. Thousands of mortars and missiles rained down on Israel.
Gaza - Hamas takes over and attacks Israel. Over 8K mortars and missiles rained down on Israel.

Why in the WORLD, if you "know something" then you know this, right? Why would you expect Israel to AGAIN put themselves in such danger.

Partisans do no one any favors.

 

DAVID IN DC

5:28 AM ET

September 8, 2010

Way too balanced

When I realized the article wasn't shilling for the Palestinians or bashing Israel, I had to double check to make sure I was on the FP website.

How did you trick the editors into letting you publish that?

 

DDSNAIK

12:36 PM ET

September 8, 2010

Ha ha, true that David

... from 1 DC denizen to another, I agree that this goes against the usual partisan FP articles that are subsequently rebutted to a slowly withering intensity equilibrium until the next crisis or talking point takes over. With this one, I wasn't sure where to direct my naive/ignorant rambling exactly.

Cheers

 

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

7:44 AM ET

September 8, 2010

A lateral interpolation

Peace and a two state solution ‘now’ are not the same thing nor are they in any way interdependent. You can have either one of them ‘now’ without necessarily having the other. A two state solution is not a solution; it is simply reshuffling the cards. Abbas knows this which explains his obvious hesitancy about the negotiations, and so does Netanyahu which is why he proposes maintaining control of all borders and airspace. It is hardly conceivable that Obama imagines otherwise but he appears to prefer to view it as a hypothetical issue to be dealt with later.

One is tempted to say that the US wants two states, but it isn’t the US because the vast majority of Americans don’t give a damn about any part of the problem and care much more about jobs, wages, gay marriage and abortion. No, it is Obama and his coterie who are pushing for two states and even he does not so much want two as seriously not want one. Plus the status quo is making for bad public relations.

We should drop the word ‘solution’ from the debate because it implies a mechanistic intervention; if you move this over there, bring that over here, press this and push that, then you will have Peace. You won’t.

Let’s try to look at this another way.

Israel has responsibility for the Palestinians since, for whatever reasons, there they are and they are prevented from going anywhere else.

The Palestinians have an untidy absence of unity that inhibits development of a coherent democratically elected authority they can all trust to represent their interests and aspirations.

It would help if the two parts were united and encouragement provided to raise ordinary standards of living with the expectation that Hamas, becoming a smaller fish in a larger pond, would grow less appealing and be allowed to wither like the IRA.

This might be achieved by creating as a first step, an autonomous Palestinian region within the disputed territories, a region the rest of the world, including Israel, can recognise, deal with, assist and encourage without having to encounter blockades and tanks

However long the process then takes, the Palestinians should achieve stability and an elected governing body with real authority to deal with other leaders.

This could provide for Peace, leaving Statehood to come later, if at all since it is anyway an antique 19th century European idea with which the Palestinian people are culturally unfamiliar and one that shouldn’t really be necessary in the 21st century.

The important matters to make such a region work are land and water and these are matters best dealt with by agronomists and experts in aquifers rather than religious zealots of whatever persuasion.

 

MARTY24

10:12 AM ET

September 8, 2010

The real problem(s) in the Middle East

The "time" component Rosner discusses is a cover for two underlying issues that are almost never mentioned:

First, the Palestinians aren't really a people, but an invention of the Arab world for purposes of conducting their war against the Jews. Statements to this effect from among the Palestinians and by non-Palestinian Arab leaders make this abundantly clear. The evidence is overwhelming: not only can they not agree on collective goals, but they are constantly fighting with one another over everything from money to prestige. If the Palestinians were a people, the refugees would want to return to the Palestinian state, but their leaders insist that that is off the table. States can be established for peoples, even peoples that include distinct minority groups, but it is not really possible to establish a state for a collection of feuding groups that lack a collective sense of identity. Maybe time will lead to the establishment of a Palestinian people.

Second, the stumbling block in every discussion to date has been whether the agreements made would constitute an end to the conflict. Israelis understandably insist that the answer must be "yes," the Palestinians reject this out of hand. This is what really caused the collapse of the discussion in 2000. If Palestinian leaders aren't prepared to agree that the discussions are about an end to the conflict, why should the Israelis negotiate at all? Maybe time will lead the Palestinians to recognize that the answer must be "yes."

What has confused the issue is that Israel holds the physical assets, which in most other cases would mean that the Palestinians would be forthcoming to gain a settlement, but it has been Israel that has been most willing to negotiate, provided they see some prospect of a real peace. Without such a prospect, again, why should they do this?

 

SAWADEE

2:42 PM ET

September 9, 2010

A Few Things That I do Not Get...

1) The schism between Fatah/Hamas really makes this whole process a sham and a charade. If Abbas cannot negotiate for the 1.5million Pals in Gaza, then why is he even bothering with this charade? Let's say that both sides gets to the end, agreement in place, Israel ignored Hamas' attempts to derail the process with their terrorism (like yesterday's mortars on an Israeli school), and they are ready to ink a deal... How can they do that while ignoring the Gazans? Simply - Abbas cannot. He knows it, we know it...

Why the charade?

2) Fatah's continued incitement. Hell, just go to Palwatch.org and look at all of the statements inciting violence and a disapproval of the peace talks. Most Americans don't know this but I guarantee you that most Israelis do. Gee, I wonder why the Israelis do not have a lot of faith in anything that the PA says?

3) Fatah's double-speak. Just last week Abbas was quoted as saying that he will not allow any more concessions during these negotiations. So now, he cannot make concessions without harming his reputation. So...right of return? Borders? Etc? What's left to negotiate? At this point, the negotiation then is just his demands. That's not a negotiation.

Sadly, unless Obama can FORCE a deal on both sides, this is a sham and PR stunt.

For my take - I just hope that Israel does all that they can do to attempt to make a deal, so when it fails, the fault will be on the obstructionists, not the side that did not obstruct.

 

GDE

2:41 PM ET

September 10, 2010

Misdirection

The time issue is a misdirection, and there is a good chance this is intentional.

The real problem is the great power imbalance between the two sides. This is aggravated by the fact that the most powerful international outsiders are firmly allied with the for more powerful party. It is almost never mentioned that a fair and legal settlement requires the same rules for both sides.

Also, Israel is a very safe place, far more so than the US, for example. Not only does Israel have all the peace it wants, it periodically wants less peace and more death. The homicide rate in Israel is roughly half that in the US, and the far higher accident death rate is also roughly half that in the US. Israel only loses more than a handful at the hands of the Palestinians when it is actively killing them. Whether or not we lump those into the homicide rate, there is no noticeable difference. Periodically, Israel decides it needs more martyrs for its expansionist cause, so it goes on a killing spree which produces the inevitable retaliation.

This is, of course, exacerbated by the press, especially in the US. Palestinian spokesman in the US press not only do not get equal time, they almost never make these obvious points. Is this because they are incapable of discussing this in terms of the principles of Western law, or is because they are censored or pressured to self censor?