How to Ruin OPEC's Birthday

The Middle Eastern oil cartel celebrates its 50th anniversary this week. Here's how to keep it from running our lives for another half-century.

BY GAL LUFT | SEPTEMBER 9, 2010

Fifty years ago this week, five of the world's top oil-producing countries convened in Baghdad to form the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The goal of the cartel was to "assert its member countries' legitimate rights" and gain "a major say in the pricing of crude oil on world markets." OPEC did just that. In the decades that followed, its members nationalized international companies' oil fields and infrastructure assets, instated a quota system, and gained the upper hand in price negotiations. Within a decade, they had become the most powerful cartel in modern history.

As their collective power grew, OPEC members learned to use oil as an instrument of geopolitical power. Their boldest experiment occurred in 1973, when the cartel's Arab members imposed a painful five-month oil embargo to deter Western nations from supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Since then, OPEC has earned a reputation as a club of greedy, non democratic governments whose oil ministers, who gather in Vienna every few months to set the price of crude, hold everyone else's economic fate in their hands.

But OPEC's well-deserved reputation as a bully obscures another fact: For all its bluster, the group seems almost uninterested in actually getting all its oil out of the ground. Today, the cartel's 12 members account for 78 percent of global oil reserves, but produce only one-third of the actual oil supply; the world's non-OPEC producers, with little more than a fifth of the world's oil at their disposal, pump twice as much. Even with the 2007 induction of two new members, Angola and Ecuador, who collectively produce as much oil each day as Norway, OPEC produces today less oil than it did before the 1973 embargo.

And though OPEC prides itself on controlling almost all the market's spare production capacity -- the main protection the world's economy has against supply disruptions -- its performance as a buffer against oil shocks is similarly unremarkable. The cartel has seldom used its vaunted capacity to rescue an oil-starved market. Time and again when disruptions occur, OPEC drags its feet and ignores consumers' pleas to open the spigot and provide some relief. Instead, it insists, as it did when oil prices spiked to nearly $150 a barrel in July 2008, that the market is well-supplied and that high oil prices are the work of speculators and SUV-driving soccer moms.

OPEC members, meanwhile, are in most cases responsible for the very same supply disruptions they claim to be interested in countering: We have the cartel's members to thank for not just the 1973 embargo, but also Saddam Hussein's attacks on Iran and Kuwait, Nigeria's endless war in the Niger Delta, and the 2003 oil strike in Venezuela. OPEC may claim to be the global economy's fireman, but its members have spent more time behaving like arsonists. The cartel's machinations have gone toward exactly one end: maintaining a virtual monopoly over the world's most necessary fuel, while blocking competition from alternative energy sources.

Half a century of a transportation sector dominated by OPEC has numbed us to this reality and led us to accept the cartel's shenanigans as a fait accompli. We shouldn't. In a modern global economy where free trade, open markets, and strict anti-trust laws are bedrock principles, there is no room for a cartel dominating any commodity -- not least the most strategic one of all.

So far the U.S. Congress has mainly fought OPEC the American way: in court. In 2000, the Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously approved the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels) bill, which would have enabled the Justice Department to sue in federal court "any nation ... that is engaging in cartel or conspiracy to limit the production of oil." Responding to the public's rage over high gas prices the House of Representatives passed the measure in 2008. The Senate did not, but George W. Bush's White House announced that it would veto NOPEC if it ever made it into law, sparing us the media circus that would have inevitably followed had the U.S. government tried to sue Venezuela's Hugo Chávez or Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Amid the NOPEC theatrics, the United States surrendered the only actual leverage it ever had over OPEC: In 2005, it approved the admission of Saudi Arabia -- which effectively runs the cartel -- to the World Trade Organization.

JOE KLAMAR/AFP/Getty Images

 

Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. He is the co-author of Turning Oil into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice.

AHSERGIO

2:03 PM ET

September 10, 2010

Brazilian Ethanol

Over the first terms of his mandate, President Lula did everything he could to try to sell ethanol from sugar cain to USA, but your importing barriers related to agricultural goods just wouldn't let this happen.
Now Brazil found out that ther's oil in the pre-salt and that we can digg there. You won't hear a word from Lula now about Ethanol as a "enviromental friendly fuel" as he was claiming before.
Brazil was even invited to become a member of OPEC.
Summing up: while there's still oil to be drilled in the world, oil companies, governments, and cartels, such as OPEC, won't allow any other energy source to rise.
Great text by the way.

 

PWERBOS

11:28 AM ET

September 11, 2010

urgency of the issue and more on what we could do

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/study-warns-of-perilous-oil-crisis/

Comments accusing Luft of being a bigot are red herrings, like a lot of the red herrings being used in Washington these days to distract us from the urgency of our plight. Whether you agree with peak oil studies or not (see an analysis by the German military above), it's clear that the world is in a situation of grave risk due to present trends. In my view, the world oil price of $150 per barrel just before the economic collapse of September 2008 was a reasonable measure of the true economic value, when the financial system is back to being fully functional with rational foresight. But also enough to put the whole world into a "double dip," a depression. After the first dip, we really need some urgency about how to change the trends, to prevent a bigger dip -- with less tools to damp the effect -- in a year or two. (The real 2012 threat?). Gal's suggestion is right on, but to minimize probability of a major crisis, we need a comprehensive approach immediately,
including his suggestion and more -- see www.werbos.com/oil.htm.

 

FORLORNEHOPE

11:54 AM ET

September 12, 2010

Winning the oil end game

A very detailed study on this subject was published several years ago and bears serious study. "Winning the Oil End Game" by Amory Lovins of the "Rocky Mountain Institute" shows how by a combination of efficiencies and different energy sources the US can get of its addiction to imported fuel. The idea that a one off "silver bullet" solution will have any serious impact, is difficult to believe.

http://nc.rmi.org/Page.aspx?pid=269&srcid=269

 

TOMZHAO

12:07 PM ET

September 12, 2010

yubb

As the able online shopping seller, we offers thoroughgoing kinds of

 

BOREDWELL

2:29 PM ET

September 12, 2010

crude awakening

People know there are alternative fuels. But breaking their oil habit will be the challenge. One more difficult than breaking OPEC. Change begins at the bottom not at the top. People would rather buy accessories for their cars than spend $70.00 on a flex fuel component. Sure a minority would, the majority no. The 1979 fuel crunch and the high prices of 2008, though painful, are over and Americans are guzzling gas like always. Flex-fuels will be in demand only after a prolonged crisis, one that would jog the public not just into awareness but into action.

 

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

6:30 AM ET

September 13, 2010

Commonsense please

OPEC is eminently sensible to nurse oil resources, and Iran’s declared plan to construct enough nuclear reactors to remain a fuel exporter when its oil runs low is equally sensible. The US, instead of behaving like a glutton at a buffet, should do precisely this kind of forward planning, not in the spirit of clobbering OPEC as the author suggests here but as a matter of commonsense.

 

SEOADDICTION

2:16 PM ET

October 2, 2010

I'm just writing my essay on

I'm just writing my essay on OPEC. Interesting materials!

 

LAURINE BACAK

6:14 AM ET

October 9, 2010

How to Ruin OPEC's Birthday

The Middle Eastern oil cartel celebrates its 50th anniversary this week. Here's how to keep it from running our lives for another half-century. OPEC is eminently sensible to nurse oil resources, and Irans declared plan to construct enough nuclear reactors to remain a fuel exporter when its oil runs low is equally sensible. The US, instead of behaving like a glutton at a buffet, should do precisely this kind of forward planning, not in the spirit of clobbering OPEC as the author suggests here but as a matter of commonsense. "So far the U. S. Congress has mainly fought OPEC the American way: in court. In 2000, the Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously approved the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels) bill, which would have enabled the Justice Department to sue in federal court "any nation. that is engaging in cartel or conspiracy to limit the production of oil amory ms flower gift. " Responding to the public's rage over high gas prices the House of Representatives passed the measure in 2008. The Senate did not, but George W. Bush's White House announced that it would veto NOPEC if it ever made it into law, sparing us the media circus that would have inevitably followed had the U. S. government tried to sue Venezuela's Hugo Chvez or Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Amid the NOPEC theatrics, the United States surrendered the only actual leverage it ever had over OPEC: In 2005, it approved the admission of Saudi Arabia -- which effectively runs the cartel -- to the World Trade Organization. " Alcohol for flex fuel is a negative net energy source. Electricity from coal is carbon toxic. Anyway we live in world that driven by open trade not yankee arrogance and bigotry.