Is China Afraid of Its Own People?

The diplomatic tussle over the East China Sea has calmed down, but a bigger foreign-policy problem awaits: China's newly empowered masses won't take 'no' for an answer, and Beijing is right to be scared.

BY WILLY LAM | SEPTEMBER 28, 2010

China and Japan's recent showdown over the Diaoyu (or Senkaku, to the Japanese) archipelago seems to have cooled down with the release of the captain of a Chinese fishing vessel who was detained by the Japanese coast guard earlier this month. Quite a few official Chinese media outlets ran big headlines proclaiming that the Japanese had capitulated. Yet it's by no means clear that China was the victor.

Indeed, the extraordinary lengths to which Beijing has gone to rein in public protests over the alleged Japanese occupation of the Diaoyu, as the islands are called in China, has exposed a critical shortcoming of the so-called China model: the Chinese Communist Party leadership's inability to make effective use of public opinion to advance domestic as well as diplomatic goals. Instead of leading public opinion, these days Chinese leaders are sometimes pushed into uncomfortable stances that reduce their options.

The row with Japan is a case in point. At the height of the dispute, Chinese authorities pulled out all the stops to prevent patriotic Chinese from airing their views. Protest organizers of protests, such as the editors of www.cfdd.org.cn, a website well-known for its advocacy of Diaoyu-related issues, were given warnings by the police "not to break the law" by holding demonstrations and other radical actions.

The few hundred activists who joined rallies on Sept. 18 -- which marked the 79th anniversary of the Japanese invasion of China's northeastern provinces -- in cities including Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, were subjected to tight surveillance by police, who outnumbered the demonstrators by at least four to one. The protesters were dispersed by law-enforcement agents within an hour or so.

On Sept. 12, Chinese police prevented a group of nationalist activists from renting a boat to sail from Fujian province to the Diaoyu islets to proclaim Chinese sovereignty. A similar action 10 days later by a patriotic NGO in Hong Kong was foiled by the local administration, which stopped the fishing vessel on the grounds that it was not licensed to carry passengers.

One reason Beijing is so nervous about demonstrations is that based on past experience, "troublemakers" often take advantage of such rare occasions to air grievances regarding nondiplomatic issues, especially corruption within party and government departments. That explains why at least nine activists, according to the watchdog Chinese Human Rights Defenders, were detained or warned not to participate in the rallies in Beijing and Guangzhou. Among them were Xu Zhiyong, a lecturer at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, and Teng Biao, a lawyer. Xu and Teng are well-known NGO activists who have stood up for victims of official corruption.

Yet the most important reason why party authorities are paranoid about public protests is that aside from casting aspersions Tokyo's way, demonstrators might also zero in on Beijing's failure to do anything substantial to recover the lost territory. Sino-Japanese wrangling over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands dates back to the early 1970s, when Washington returned the archipelago to Japan, but Beijing's actions have never gone beyond rhetorical assertions of its "sovereignty since time immemorial."

Nor are they likely to. Despite the leaps-and-bounds development of the Chinese Navy, a military solution seems out of the question. The islets fall within the Japanese-American mutual defense treaty, a fact that was reiterated by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton when she met visiting Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara in New York last week.

A more realistic solution is the one advocated by late patriarch Deng Xiaoping when he visited Japan in 1978: seeking joint development of the islands, which are rich in natural resources, while shelving sovereignty concerns. Deng said on the occasion that it might be better to let "future generations, which may be wiser" to tackle the sovereignty imbroglio. Deng's statement, which could be interpreted as legitimizing the status quo of the Diaoyu being run by Japan on a de facto basis, has never been given much publicity in China. It is also not mentioned in high-school history textbooks.

PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP/Getty Images

 

Willy Lam is professor of China studies at Japan's Akita International University and adjunct professor of history at Chinese University at Hong Kong.

TOTO62

10:35 PM ET

September 28, 2010

chinese

why is this so.. probbaly.. they dont trust each other...
student financial aid information
Home Security Systems
Truck Driver Jobs

 

DINGYIBVS

12:12 AM ET

September 29, 2010

Look at it from another angle...

By "caving in" to popular demands, isn't the Chinese government in effect empowering its people? Isn't it listening to the will of the people? Isn't it becoming, God forbid, more democratic? Isn't that what every westerner wished for? This leads to my second point, which is that if the Chinese people are in fact more nationalistic than its government, wouldn't a democratic China be a more belligerent China? Be careful what you wish for....

 

CHOPPY1

11:54 AM ET

September 29, 2010

You misunderstand what democracy is

Dingyibus, democracy does not mean letting the loudest people dictate what a country does. Democracy means giving everyone a say in how things are run--and giving everyone the information they need to understand what will serve their interests. Democracy in China would allow open public debate over an issue such as this. The nationalists could make their case, but so could people who advocate a more diplomatic approach and can show what the costs of a nationalist policy would be. The outcome of a democratic process is usually a compromise that most people benefit from.

 

DINGYIBVS

2:27 PM ET

September 29, 2010

Choppy, I don't disagree with

Choppy,

I don't disagree with your definition of democracy, but if you've ever visited a Chinese BBS you'll find that the overwhelming majority are quite nationalist and very happy with the course this incident has taken. That's even true on the overseas message boards which the CCP have deemed dangerous enough to censure in China. In other words, this issue needs no compromise, it has a consensus.

 

CHOPPY1

3:32 PM ET

September 29, 2010

Have people heard all sides?

DINGYIBVS, I'd be willing to accept this sentiment as the final word, except that I wonder whether people in China have heard all sides of the issue. There's a Chinese claim to the islands--have Chinese people heard the Japanese claim? Have people heard Chinese businessmen say, for example, that China might lose 200,000 jobs if it seized the islands? And so on. I think that is a key point in the article. The lack of an open debate allows one-sided views to dominate.

 

ALEXANDERDDMUIR

8:48 AM ET

September 29, 2010

two points

1st - @dingyibvs - i couldn't agree more. A democratic China is a rather frightful prospect at this moment, if indeed nationalism is as prevalent as it appears to be

2nd - I wonder what effect "the little emperor" syndrome has on this? I'm a kindergarten teacher in Beijing, and believe me when I say that none of these children are familiar with the concept of sharing. Or compromising, for that matter.
Perhaps if these nationalists are of the younger, emperor, type, a change in domestic reproduction policy might have the additional benefit of making future FP disputes easier to handle for the gov't.

 

XTIANGODLOKI

9:40 AM ET

September 29, 2010

Chinese are no more nationalistic than ppl of other nations

The hysteria over "Chinese nationalism" is absurd. Everyone region has people who like to defend their nation. There are far more "boycott China" organizations in Western nations than "boycott Japan" people in China. I find it odd that the people in the West complain bout Chinese nationalism and at the same time do not mind all of the flag wavers in their own countries. Nationalist movement in places such as Taiwan and Tibet region are even encouraged and paid for using American tax payer's money.

If you look at China's history, some of their hostility towards the west is completely understandable. The Chinese government has benefited from the anti-western sentiment much like American politicians have benefited from China-bashing.

 

CHOPPY1

12:23 PM ET

September 29, 2010

There's one key difference

XTIANGODLOKI, You make many good points. Here's what makes us westerners nervous: In the West, democratic institutions provide a structured way to balance competing interests so that nationalist sentiments are moderated by other viewpoints. China lacks democratic institutions, so there are few structures to moderate nationalist sentiment if the central government were to lose control.

I am glad to hear that "boycott Japan" and similar nationalist trends in China are weaker than outsiders fear. I can report that anti-China sentiment in the US has been quite muted, considering China's sudden rise over the last 30 years (with the full cooperation of the US and other Western countries). I hope the disputes that will inevitably arise will be solved through negotiation with no violence.

 

XTIANGODLOKI

1:00 PM ET

September 29, 2010

Really?

" In the West, democratic institutions provide a structured way to balance competing interests so that nationalist sentiments are moderated by other viewpoints. China lacks democratic institutions, so there are few structures to moderate nationalist sentiment if the central government were to lose control. "

If the so called "democratic institutions" can do so well to "balance" nationalist sentiments then how come in the US you always hear news about local militants shooting "illegal immigrants" (anyone who looks hispanic) and "muslims" (anyone who has dark skin and wears turbans)? How many Japanese people have actually been killed in China because of Chinese nationalism? I can easily make the argument that far more Americans have been killed because they simply LOOK "illegal" or mulism.

If look at what is going on in Arizona, it should be clear that these democratic institutions actually become the enabler of nationalism as politicians use the nationalist sentiments to get votes.

Finally, do you honestly think the anti-China sentiment is muted in the US? Nevermind the flag burnings, anti-China rallies and all that stuff during the Beijing Olympics, today if you listen to the politicians such as Schumer (D NY) you will think that every single job lost in the US is because of Chinese currency. As the mid term elections draw closer you can bet that more US politicians will be singling out China as the reason for all of the bad things why America is in the slump today. Can you tell me just who the counter-balancing voices are?

 

SUBRASWAMI

1:42 PM ET

September 29, 2010

Hyprocracy

XTIANGODLOKI I want to add a bit more to this, if democratic institutions provides a balance then why hasn't it worked since post 9/11, people with differing opinion were simply branded as traitors and swept aside paving for the most jingoistic and militaristic approach, how is this better than the Chinas reponse to its problem?

 

CHOPPY1

2:31 PM ET

September 29, 2010

Democracy is noisy

XTIANGODLOKI, The kiling of illegal immigrants and muslims because of who they are is extremely rare (a couple of cases a year). The real issue is the treatment illegal immigrants and muslims generally. There are some forces that want to treat immigrants more harshly--for example, put them in jail rather than simply returning them to their home country. The state of Arizona passed a law that requires the police to check the immigration status of people they suspect of being illegal aliens. However, the U.S. courts have suspended this law pending review, and it will likely be overturned because only the federal government has jusidiction over immigration. Hispanics and other groups within the U.S. are organizing to make it easier for illegal immigrants to obtain legal status. Hispanics voted in record numbers in 2008 in part as a reaction against immigrant-bashing. Business is lobbying to loosen restrictions on immigration so that it can attract more skilled workers. In other words, democracy is noisy, with lots of different groups trying to get their voices heard. The best way to see what is happening is to look at the big picture--the U.S. continues to take in 1 million immigrants a year.

Anti-muslim sentiment has grown since 9/11 just as anti-German sentiment grew during World War I and anti-Japanese sentiment grew during World War II. The U.S. has a long history of treating new groups it encounters with suspicion and discrimination. This is a bad habit, unfortunately. In every case, though, the suspicion and discrimination have diminished over time, and the groups have become comfortable in the U.S. The same will happen for muslims (who have suffered far less than other groups historically). There are strict laws that protect minorities. For example, I believe the man who shot a muslim taxi driver a couple of months ago will be prosecuted under hate-crime laws, which carry an enhanced penalty.

Chuck Schumer represents an important faction in the Congress, but it is one faction only. People in the U.S. have been complaining about China's trade and currency practices for at least 20 years and pushed for a tougher line against China. So far, they have not gotten their way. The U.S. has consistently tried to make trade with China more open and to avoid confrontation. It was the U.S. that sponsored China's entrance into the WTO. You will appreciate that with the economic slowdown in the U.S., pressure to "do something" about Chinese trade has grown. I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. government became more insistent that China allow its currency to float freely on the open market. But the Obama administration, like previous administrations, will try to achieve its goals in sensible ways and will avoid a confrontation if possible.

 

CHOPPY1

2:42 PM ET

September 29, 2010

Democracy is messy, too

SUBRASWAMI, Democracy does confer real power, and in the U.S. after 9/11, the people in power were more hawkish. They oversaw the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and they set up prisons like Guantanamo and allowed the use of torture during interrogations. However, the hawks did not have complete power. For example, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that prisoners couldn't be held indefinitely; they had to be given an opportunity to prove their innocence. And elections in 2006 and 2008 reduced the power of the hawks and then removed them from office.

Democracy doesn't guarantee that a country won't make bad mistakes or that the wisest policies are always chosen. What democracy does guarantee is that no one has absolute power, that all voices will be heard, and that mistakes can be corrected.

 

XTIANGODLOKI

6:05 PM ET

September 29, 2010

Democracy has nothing to do with level of nationalism

CHOPPY1 the reason I mentioned Arizona and Muslims is simply to illustrate the fact that nationalism is alive and well in the US. I don't see the logic in your argument that Democracy Institutions can handle nationalism any better than non-democractic nations. If you take the case of the US I think it's actually worse.

If you think about it, Democracy is one form of government which cannot handle nationalism if the whole country swings rightward, because the opposing forces will not get elected. The elections in border states such as Arizona are perfect examples of this. In authoritarian governments on the other hand, nationalism can be squashed such as China in this case.

Finally, the people in the US have NOT been complaining about China's currency practices for the last twenty years. The US praised China for sticking to its pegging of the dollar in 1997 during the Asian Currency melt down. Had China not done that the whole Asian region may not have recovered even today. In the late 80s and early 90s the US was upset at Japan for doing exactly what China is doing today, which is to buy the US currency in order to make the dollar more valuable. Of course, what is being left out of the debate is the fact that the US prints its currency to lower that value on a consistent basis.

 

SUBRASWAMI

6:48 PM ET

September 29, 2010

CHOPPY1, Democracy or for

CHOPPY1, Democracy or for that matter no form of governance is perfect, the point is the US prides itself on promoting democracy and freedom and it rings hollow when we don't want to uphold these just because a bunch of cave dwellers suddenly became so threating that we need to go into the lock down mode, while what we needed was more openness and foresight.

It took 8 years to see some apparent change, but things are much the same except for the rhetoric. You honestly believe things have changed??

 

CHOPPY1

9:47 AM ET

September 30, 2010

Democracy provides checks on power

Xtiangodloki, Let me answer you the best way I can. "If you think about it, Democracy is one form of government which cannot handle nationalism if the whole country swings rightward, because the opposing forces will not get elected. The elections in border states such as Arizona are perfect examples of this."

I mentioned before that no one group gets absolute power in a democracy. In the U.S., power is dispersed vertically and horizontally. It's dispersed vertically in that there are three levels of government: at the federal, state and local levels. Each level of government has specific powers. Immigration is a federal issue, so the state of Arizona does not have much power over this issue. Should the anti-immigrant law that Arizona enacted recently be upheld by the courts, which I doubt, local governments will implement it in different ways--that is, some communities will ignore the law (because they don't have the resources to enforce it).

Power is dispersed horizontally in that power is shared between the executive branch of government (the president at the federal level, governors at the state level), the legislative branch and the courts. All three have to agree for a law to stand. The courts will probably reject the Arizona law. The courts are not elected but appointed, so they cannot be swept out of power quickly. Moreover, the legislature is not elected all at the same time, so it takes at least two election cycles for a new party to take control.

Another point is that the U.S. is big and diverse. Arizona is only one state. Many other states are more welcoming of illegal immigrants. For example, Iowa uses immigrant workers in meatpacking plants, so it advocates tolerance for illegal immigrants.

This dispersal of power will probably lead to a compromise in which border states like Arizona get help in dealing with the real burdens of illegal immigrants while illegal immigrants get a path to citizenship. There will be lots of loud arguments until this happens.

"In authoritarian governments on the other hand, nationalism can be squashed such as China in this case." An authoritarian government can squash nationalist sentiment but not diffuse or eliminate it. If nationalists feel that they haven't had a fair chance to win real power, pressure will only build. If the government becomes weak or something really sparks a nationalist movement, there are no structures to slow it down and balance its excesses.

One final point, the U.S. is not a country where nationalism is strong, but Americans are patriotic. A patriot is someone who wants his country to do the right thing and supports the country when it does the right thing. A nationalist supports his country whether it does the right thing or the wrong thing. There was a multi-national survey done a couple of years ago which tried to measure this. The survey found that roughly 60% of Americans are patriots while 40% are nationalists. The proportions were reversed in European countries, where 60% are nationalists, 40% patriots.

The point you make about America urging China not to devalue its currency during the Asian financial crisis supports my point. Despite pressure from labor unions and some businesses to get tough with China on trade and currency, the U.S. government has consistently pursued a cooperative policy.

 

CHOPPY1

9:45 AM ET

September 30, 2010

Yes, things have changed

SUBRASWAMI, I'm aware of the mistakes the US has made over the last 10 years, but I am not sure whether they are the same criticisms that you would make. Yes, things have changed. The U.S. has emphatically rejected torture and is working to dismantle Guantanamo and similar prisons and to treat suspected terrorists within more of a standard legal framework. The U.S. is reducing its presence in Iraq, leaving behind a democratically elected government that has a real chance to succeed. The U.S. continues to fight the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan. I've heard people argue that these groups no longer pose a threat to the U.S. and aren't worth such a heavy military response. I do not know what the right answer is, but I am not convinced that the Taliban and al Qaeda won't reconstitute themselves if NATO forces leave Afghanistan. What I don't understand is why Pakistan tolerates the Taliban and al Qaeda.

 

READER8288

1:08 PM ET

September 29, 2010

Who are more nationalistic? Chinese or Japanese?

As a Chinese, I find the author to be quite biased in blaming the Chinese for nationalism, while neglecting the ultra-nationalistic nature of the Japanese society.

China has been quite serious on containing ultra-nationalistic tendencies of some people since the outbreak of the Diaoyu Islands row, and has successfully prevented the recurrence of what happened in 2005, after former Japanese PM Koizimi paid an official tribute to the Yasukuni Shrine.

In contrast, some Japanese rightists are much more likely to go to extremes. Chinese consulates were attacked, students in Chinese language schools were , even Chinese tourists whose trip to Japan helps its economic growth were harrassed by them.

It is fair to neglect these facts?

 

JYS390

1:30 AM ET

September 30, 2010

Japan caused this mess...

While I usually find Willy Lam's reporting unique and avoids the China tropes of most Western journalists, this article fails to meet his normally high standards.

The problem is that this article suggests -- as do most Western commentators -- that the Chinese initiated this confrontation. This of course fits the China threat cliche's that Chinese nationalism as been on the rise and that they are expanding their "core interest" imperialism.

Unfortunately journalists all look for trends, rather than identify inconsistencies and complexities. The problem is that 1) China has indeed made more assertive changes in the Spratly Chain; but 2) China was NOT the one making "waves" in the Senkaku/Diaoyutai dispute.

Lam makes a poor reporter's assertion that the Chinese public will be angry IF THEY ONLY KNEW IN THEIR HIGH SCHOOL TEXTBOOKS Deng's quote for moderation and "'let future generations, which may be wiser' to tackle the sovereignty imbroglio." In fact, the Chinese public are just fine with the their Diaoyutai issue -- but of course they'll be angry when Japan stirs the pot.

Even the Wall Street Journal, no pro-China liberal bastion, admits that it was likely internal Japanese government calculation that created this bruhaha. Chinese fisherman have been fishing there for decades, so why arrest the captain now? In the middle of the Democrat Party's tenuous grip on parliament? From the Journal:

"A 1997 fisheries agreement allows both sides' fishermen to operate free of regulation around the islands. So it's not clear why the Japanese coast guard needed to stop the Chinese boat.

Tensions are still rising because the Japanese authorities have detained the Chinese captain, Zhan Qixiong, on suspicion of deliberately ramming the coast guard vessels. But Japanese ships have a history of aggressive maneuvers in this area, for instance sinking a Hong Kong protest vessel in June 1998 and a Taiwanese sport-fishing boat in 2008.”

So OF COURSE the Chinese public are inflamed. Not because they don't know Deng's call for moderation, but because the Japanese have been violating that same moderation and truce.

 

ITONLYSTANDSTOREASON

2:11 PM ET

September 30, 2010

Thanks

for offering facts from 'outside of the box', giving a better sense of context and balance.

 

HSAQIB17

8:57 AM ET

September 30, 2010

A new world order yet again....

It is time that Americans woke up to harsh realities. The fast-growing Chinese economy is staring the world in the eye. The ever-strong Yuan is a pain in the neck for many heretofore strong currencies. It is for this reason that China is under tremendous pressure to devalue its currency. It is said that China is the lender of the last resort to the most powerful country on earth. It has the second largest economy. According to the latest projections, China’s economy will be the largest and the strongest economy by 2050. It has the largest army in the world with 2.26 million active troops but its military spending is just 2% of its GDP which explains the enormous size of its economy. Its formidable military machine is a force to reckon with. It has export-oriented defense industry and it is capable to produce anything that you can imagine. The quality of its high-tech defense equipment is improving at a fast pace. Is this Asian country on its way to challenge the sole super power and re-write the world order? The US panic to contain China suggests that China has all the pre-requisites of challenging the leadership of the US. Is the world going back to the era of bi-polarity? Is the new world order being made? How does Sam Huntington view this situation? Let us sit back and watch the events unfold. Read more at: http://fmeducation.blogspot.com...

 

ITONLYSTANDSTOREASON

2:08 PM ET

September 30, 2010

Stoking nationalism builds steam; it can't be contained

I've read that the Chinese began to emphasize nationalism in their schools following Tiananmen Square. It serves to channel the energy of the people towards support of their country against the threats from outside (including foreign political ideas), and away internal criticism of the party or government.

This article suggests that the policy of promoting nationalism can have unintended consequences.

I've also read that Bismark had to deal with the restive energies of a public facing rapid social and economic change in Germany of the late 19th century. At first, a couple of foreign wars served his purposes, but then he ran out of plausible enemies. He decided to build up an internal enemy as a focus of popular discontent, and drew on the indigenous strain of anti-Semitism. Once promoted, however, it took deeper root. Once promoted as a means to an end, it was naturalized in later generations of political leaders and became an end in itself. We all know how that went.

XTIANGODLOKI, keep up the criticism and the dialog - we tend to assume that we have the virtuous position, and amid all the self-congratulations, our critical thinking becomes rather flabby and dull. A little critical self-examination is useful too.

 

MENSOELREY

7:02 PM ET

September 30, 2010

Politicians are not nationalists

Politicians are rarely true nationalists. They just use nationalism as a tool to control stupid people. In China's case, it is partly out of the government's hands.

 

AALTINDAL

9:10 AM ET

October 1, 2010

The CCP has an uneasy

The CCP has an uneasy relationship with Chinese nationalism: It has used nationalism to legitimise its rule and use it as a "national glue" after the perceived discrediting of communism and the de-ideologicalisation of CCP's policy-making. They have used nationalism to promote China's rise as a superpower, the whole "Reclaiming China's place as a great power" rhetoric.

But nationalism is an unpredictable and wild beast that can only be leashed but never fully tamed. And the CCP is aware of this. The dispute with Japan is not the first time spontaneous nationalistic demonstrations popped up around the country. After NATO bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and after a Chinese jet collided with a US Spy Plane in 2001, similar demonstrations occured. And just like whats happening today, the CCP let the demonstrators be for a short time before stamping them out, once the demonstrators became too xenophobic.

CCPs concern of nationalism is not simply because it is a gateway to express greater griveances. No. The main problem is that CCP *needs* nationalism. If they oppose nationalists as much as they oppose, say, the democracy movement, then the nationalists will lash back towards the CCP and the CCP will lose one of its main pillars of legitimacy. But if they give nationalists free reign, they will damage China's international interests. It is a very tough balancing game.

 

HAMDU

1:07 PM ET

October 10, 2010

No. The main problem

It is time that Americans woke up to harsh realities. The fast-growing Chinese economy is staring the world in the eye. The ever-strong Yuan is a pain in the neck for many heretofore strong currencies. It is for thisbecertube reason that China is under tremendous pressure to devalue its currency. It is said that China is the lender of thegztlr last resort to the most powerful country on earth. It has the second largest economy. According to the latest projections, China’s economy will be the largest and the strongest economy by 2050. It has the largest army in the 7raworld with 2.26 million active troops but its military spending is just 2% of its GDP which explains the enormous size of its economy. Its formidable military machine is a force to reckon with.ucakbiletitc It has export-oriented defense industry and it is capable to produce anything that you can 31cilerimagine. The quality of its high-tech defense equipment is improving at a fast pace. Is this Asian country on its way to challenge the sole super power and re-write the world order? The US panic to contain China suggests that China has all the pre-requisites of challenging the leadership of the US. Is the world going back to the era of bi-polarity? Is the new sinemaworld order being made? How does Sam Huntington view this situation? Let us sit back and watch the events unfold. Read