A Long Road Ahead in Pakistan

If Obama wants to make progress, he needs to give up on making it overnight.

BY JAMES TRAUB | OCTOBER 1, 2010

Last week, Pakistan's foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, spoke at the Council on Foreign Relations. The foreign minister is a glossy, silver-haired gentleman, and he delivered a glossy address lauding the new "Strategic Dialogue" with the United States, his government's commitment to transparency and accountability in the distribution of humanitarian assistance for victims of the epic floods, and so forth. He was asked several terribly polite questions and answered in kind. Then I asked the minister if he worried that his government's lack of capacity and even lack of legitimacy in the eyes of citizens was impeding development. Qureshi blew a gasket. "I really fail to understand what you're trying to say," he shot back, "but I can tell you that there are no capacity issues. The Pakistan Army is working. [The] Pakistan Army is an institution that belongs to the government of Pakistan.… They are working under instructions of an elected government, and that is what it ought to be."

Of course, nobody believes that, not in Washington and not in Islamabad. The response to the floods has confirmed, with a vengeance, both the fecklessness of Pakistan's civilian government and the dominance of the military. Several days ago, the Army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, in a direct confrontation unprecedented during his tenure, upbraided the country's president and prime minister, supposedly his bosses, over the government's rampant corruption, demanding that they fire several cabinet ministers.

All this raises a question, similar to the question posed by the corruption and incompetence of the Afghan state: What, exactly, does Barack Obama's administration think it can accomplish there?

Although U.S. troops are fighting in Afghanistan, many of Obama's senior advisors see Pakistan as the real prize. Al Qaeda takes shelter there; nothing threatens American national security so much as the prospect of a giant nuclear-armed state overwhelmed by terrorists; and the United States would seem to have a much better shot at establishing stability in Pakistan, a democracy and a longstanding, if wayward, ally. In the middle of the long policy debate of 2009, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said to me, "If I said to you right now, we can send $30 billion a year to Pakistan or $30 billion to Afghanistan, which would you pick? Every goddamn person says, 'Pakistan.' So I say, 'OK, guys, we should be talking about a PakAf policy, not an AfPak policy.'"

In the "Afghanistan and Pakistan Regional Stabilization Strategy" released this January, the White House promised an "enhanced partnership" with Pakistan that would move far beyond the military funding the previous administration provided. The promise of partnership was echoed in the Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill, which provides $7.5 billion to Pakistan over five years with the money divided between "high-impact, high-visibility infrastructure programs," humanitarian aid, and "government capacity development."

Those funds have only begun to be disbursed, and the imperative of responding to the flood has temporarily eclipsed long-term goals; but events of recent months have shown how very deep-seated Pakistan's problems are. The floods, though an act of God, were enormously exacerbated by state failure. The national disaster plan, drawn up after the terrible 2005 earthquake, had never been implemented. Squabbling among Pakistan's provinces had blocked the building of a dam on the Indus. And amid the calamity, President Asif Ali Zardari took a trip to Europe, including a widely publicized visit to his French château.

The premise of the George W. Bush administration's highly regarded Millennium Challenge Account was that U.S. assistance would be most effective in countries where the government was at least modestly accountable to its people, made investments in education and health care, practiced economic transparency, and reined in corruption. By those standards, especially in matters of public investment, Pakistan falls way below many much poorer countries. The administration is hardly blind to the fact that Pakistan is incurring the kinds of failures that would disqualify it from receiving Millennium Challenge funds. In a very unusual moment of public criticism, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently told an audience that Pakistan cannot have a tax system in which elites "pay so little it's laughable" and expect "the United States and others to come in and help."

AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images

 

James Traub is a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and author of, most recently, The Freedom Agenda. "Terms of Engagement," his column for ForeignPolicy.com, runs weekly.

MARTY MARTEL

1:15 PM ET

October 2, 2010

No light at the end of this tunnel

Sooner or later US has to realize that its Afghan troubles are directly tied to Pakistan’s support and shelter of Afghan Taliban networks safely ensconced in Quetta and North Waziristan.

Sooner or later US has to question Pakistan’s bonafides about wanting to fight the scurge of terrorism haunting US Afghan mission.

Sooner or later US has to stop ignoring Afghan Taliban’s Pakistani connections in fueling and sustaining Afghan insurgency as reported by Matt Waldman in ‘The sun in the sky‘ on 6/13/2010, corroborated by WikiLeaks leaks on 7/25/2010 and then further corroborated by Chris Alexander, Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005 and Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan from 2005 until 2009 in his article on 7/30/2010 titled ‘The huge scale of Pakistan‘s complicity‘.

It is NO use keep giving billions of dollars to an ally who wants to keep playing the duplicitous game of running with the hares while hunting with the hounds.

Only way US can eradicate this terrorist threat emanating from Pakistan is to invade and occupy Pakistan for a sustained period of time (atleast five years) to wipe out the terrorist threat to US and the world, safely ensconced not just in tribal areas but in the entire state of Pakistan

And after ten long years of war in Afghanistan, with the American people tired of it, US has neither the desire nor the resources to do so.

With an ally like Pakistan, US Afghan mission was doomed to fail right from the beginning.

 

SAIF UR REHMAN

6:05 AM ET

October 5, 2010

Ani Pakistan Propaganda by Indian and Western Lobbies......

What ever you said , seems to be a sheer propaganda against Pakistan. I saw many of your comments on the site and it convinced me that you deserve Goeble's ( nazi propaganda minister) Millineum Award.............. So no need to reply any of your venomous critique.....

 

SEO TODD

2:33 PM ET

October 2, 2010

Democracy

The big issue is the fact that we are trying to imply Western World culture and thinking on a country that is not ready for it. Trying to impose our way of law, administration and living is a long, tiring road, its time to cut ties in terms of trying to legislate how those countries are run.

Just as we have, other countries need to gain more independence and learn what is right for them.
Todd, SEO Company

 

MOORTHY MUTHUSWAMY

6:05 PM ET

October 2, 2010

Pakistan's problems are theocratic!

"But Pakistan's problems are political, not technocratic, and so long as the country continues to be lead by urbanized feudals who stash their wealth in Dubai and London, the deep problems will not be acknowledged and prioritized where it counts."

I would hope that James Traub or those who know him read these comments and send it to him.

By comparing the relative evolution of Pakistan and India some definitive conclusions can be reached.

One is that the origin of Pakistan's problems are neither political nor technocratic, it is theocratic.

Here's a video that explains why: http://www.moorthymuthuswamy.com/Pakistan-India.html

By the way, I am author of a book that deals extensively on radical Islam in the south asian context.

 

YNAZAR

5:29 AM ET

October 3, 2010

Pakistan's problems are theocratic

Mr. Moorthy

Your comments seems to show a deeper understanding than some of our American friends. But then you are a neighbour. The problems are theocratic, only in part. The main reason is its failure to evolve as a democracy with strong institutions. The US, due to circumstantial compulsions or strategic considerations, strengthened the army. This paradoxically, undermined the long term stability of Pakistan. The answer is leave Pakistan alone but make it clear if it does not control its extremists from striking overseas, there will be a heavy price. As a carrot, the US should also assure that it need not fear from India if it does not initiate a war or some act of aggression. But Americans talk and listen to the wrong people. And you and I can't help it.

Yousuf Nazar

http://www.yousufnazar.com

 

YNAZAR

5:17 AM ET

October 3, 2010

US should leave Pakistan and Afghanistan alone

The problem with most U.S. policymakers is that they overestimate their capacity to understand the compexity of the issues in far-off places like Pakistan and Afghanistan and their ability to deal with those.

Think about this….

More than one trillion dollars and nine years later the alleged and self-confessed master mind of 9/11, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed has not been convicted. Osama bin Laden, Ayman Al-Zahwari, and Mullah Omar have not been caught, dead or alive; the Talibans instead of being eliminated are set to take over Kabul again, and Pakistan which hardly had a Taliban presence on September 11, 2001 has been rocked by bomb blasts and has had its worst year of violence since 2001. And Americans still cannot see what the problem is?

But then if their policies had a bit of wisdom, we never would have had Vietnam, Cambodia would not have been ruined, Shah of Iran would never have been allowed to suppress dissent, Afghanistan would not have been abandoned after 1989, and a just settlement of the Palestine conflict would have been achieved. It is easy to forget lessons of history in the confusion and noise of day-to-day reporting and in the age of 30 second sound bites of electronic media. And it is ok for much over-rated Newsweek and its editor to declare Pakistan as the most dangerous country and the home of Al Qaeda and confess, without much regret or shame, three years later that Al Qaeda is not really that deadly a threat.

Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski who started the American involvement in Afghanistan in 1978-1979 as President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Adviser, warned the U.S. government about the potentially disastrous consequences of its foreign policy in a testimony before the U.S. senate foreign relations committee on February 1, 2007. “If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted bloody involvement in Iraq, the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large. A plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks; followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure; then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the U.S. blamed on Iran; culminating in a “defensive” U.S. military action against Iran that plunges a lonely America into a spreading and deepening quagmire eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.”

He dismissed the fears about Al Qaeda saying: “A mythical historical narrative to justify the case for such a protracted and potentially expanding war is already being articulated. Initially justified by false claims about WMD’s in Iraq, the war is now being redefined as the “decisive ideological struggle” of our time.”

Yousuf Nazar

www.yousufnazar.com

 

KAYKURI

10:28 AM ET

October 4, 2010

To vatly oversimplify an incredibly complex problem:

You don't fix Afghanistan without Pakistan, and you don't fix Pakistan without India. What are we doing about India?

 

TAYWRAY

11:27 AM ET

October 4, 2010

Emphasize the Long Term

Mr. Traub, I think your article is well-written and insightful, especially the part at the end about viewing U.S. involvement in Pakistan (and similar places) through a longer-term lens.

I hope our policymakers eventually come to grips with the obvious futility of endeavoring to convert Pakistan from a theocratic, militant kleptocracy to a prosperous, liberal democracy, especially in anything close to the short term.

I mean, whatever happened to smart power? U.S. policymakers should be focused on A) learning about Pakistan's nuclear weapons, B) engaging in quiet counterintelligence and counterterrorism activities, C) supporting democratic, liberal institutions where possible and D) encouraging peace with India.

No further interest is warranted. Al-Qaida is a decimated organization that demands a counterterrorism response ONLY, not a ridiculously short-term, intensive nation-building program. Where's the strategic perspective here?

 

ASAMS

10:16 PM ET

October 4, 2010

Simple Job..

As soon as the U.S and Nato troops go away.. all this pak afghan terror situation should diffuse by itself as the U.S has been meddling in this region just for oil, strategic hand on China and to please India - owing to business interests. All this article and Pakistan Afghanistan word circus and not telling the real game behind U.S meddling for ages.. Just leave the poor third-world people alone and let them be and breath as they like.

 

SAIF UR REHMAN

5:58 AM ET

October 5, 2010

Maligning Pakistan

While maligning Pakistan on jihadi culture, home grown terrorists and non state actors why people forget that Pakistan was subjected to these evils by CIA and Western Block in 1980's to fight against USSR. After acheiving their aims against USSR, Western World was contended enough to abandon Pakistan on the mercy of this monster and live a peaceful life thousands of miles away.

Pakistan has paid a huge price of collaborating with Western War against USSR and still Pakistani Policy makers have not learned from the past. Rather assuming the postion of front line state in War against Terror, was it not a better course to remain neutral in this conflict? yes of course it was a better option, from a Pakistani perspective if you see.

Pakistan has paid a price of economic loss worth 45 billion dollars , more than 12000 civilian casualities, more than 3000 soldiers killed, more than 150 suicide attacks on its citizens so far in this Western War . Did Us and Western allies compensated Pakistan this much? no...... certainly not...!!!!!

Western World should see Pakistan as a Partner not as a settilite state to coerce in acheiving their objectives. They should safeguard Pakistani Interests in the region rather than threaten "to bomb into stone age "If their demands are not met.! Unless the Pakistani Interests are looked after in the region, a vibrent media, an independent judiciary and more informed public may not allow any govt to bow infront of Western allies.

I think those days are gone, when a dictator in Pakistan kept all the institutions in his firm grip and masses ignorent and decide what ever he feels like..... The World should accept a changing Pakistan making heard its own voice....