What Shape Is Your Recession?

The alphabet soup of economic misery.

BY JOSHUA E. KEATING | NOVEMBER 2010

What it means: We're on the way back up. The most optimistic scenario for global recovery, V-shaped recessions only last for a few months before economic growth accelerates sharply again.

Precedent: The 1997 Asian financial crisis, triggered by the revaluation of the Thai baht, saw a deep slowdown and a quick rise thanks largely to multibillion-dollar loans by the International Monetary Fund.

Who's predicting it? The most recent U.S. recession technically started toward the end of 2007 and ended in June 2009. Nonetheless, some influential voices continue to predict a rapid upturn. Hedge-fund investor John Paulson, whose bearish investments paid off during the initial crash, told reporters in April that the "economy is showing strong signs of a recovery" and that he expected it to keep moving up. Analysts at Barclays Capital also predicted in August that a V-shape would prevail, based on the strength of corporate earnings and the capacity of central banks.

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 SUBJECTS: ECONOMICS
 

Joshua E. Keating is an associate editor at Foreign Policy.