Reluctant Warriors

Assertive Chinese and job-hungry Americans are gearing up for a trade war across the Pacific. Fortunately, cooler heads will likely prevail.

BY EVAN A. FEIGENBAUM | OCTOBER 19, 2010

The United States and China are deeply interdependent, with trade in goods between the two countries reaching a whopping $366 billion in 2009. But a growing number of influential people on both sides find that reality deeply alarming, albeit for different reasons.

In the United States, campaign ads this election season routinely blame trade with China for U.S. job losses. And in China, rising stars like Wang Yang, the Communist Party boss who governs China's booming southern province of Guangdong, fret that China's "traditional model is excessively dependent on international demand." In just the latest sign of this growing tension, the U.S. House of Representatives last month passed legislation seeking to raise the cost to China for its currency policies. All signs at the moment point toward increased trade and financial tension between the world's two economic giants.

A full-fledged trade war between the United States and China would be disastrous; thankfully, it's far from likely. Decision makers on both sides appear to have concluded that their trade disputes can be managed without undermining the entire U.S.-China relationship. Trade conflict is here to stay, but it is fast becoming a "new normal" in relations between Washington and Beijing.

What is fueling this growing tension on trade issues? Unemployment and flat growth in the United States are one part of the story. But four underlying factors are dramatically changing the U.S.-China economic relationship and will ensure that conflicts persist into the future.

First, U.S. and Chinese firms increasingly compete head-to-head because China is moving up the value chain far more quickly and across a wider array of sectors -- from electric vehicles to solar energy to high-speed rail -- than many in the United States once expected. As China seeks both to "indigenize" technology -- not simply rely on technology transfers -- and to compete globally, it is forcing U.S. firms to confront a fast-changing and vastly more competitive landscape.

Chinese firms already offer cutting-edge technology in high-speed rail and are in the hunt for contracts in developed markets such as Australia and California. And U.S. companies that once assumed a grand bargain -- providing U.S. technology in exchange for market access in China -- must now fight Chinese competitors for the same market share.

FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images

 

Evan A. Feigenbaum is head of the Asia practice group at the Eurasia Group and adjunct senior fellow for Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. From 2001 to 2009, he worked on East, Central, and South Asia at the U.S. State Department.

CARDSHARP

6:25 PM ET

October 19, 2010

Wow a FP article that is optimistic about China-US

My world makes a little less sense.

 

MARTY MARTEL

9:16 AM ET

October 20, 2010

What goes around, comes around indeed

Whether these ‘reluctant warriors’ want to admit it or not, but second cold war this time between these two is here.

China has come a long way since that Nixon embrace in 1972 to counter Soviet Union.

China was a pariah country, just like today’s North Korea until that Nixon visit. All the West European and East Asian countries stayed away from China following the US lead until 1972 and embraced China after Nixon’s visit. While US would not give MFN status to Soviet Union (remember Jackson-Vanik amendment?) unless Russia shed Communism, it had no problem giving it to China’s Communist dictators with a capitalist mask. Trade with China expanded by leaps and bounds during 12 years of Republican rule beginning in 1981. After campaigning against butchers of Beijing in 1992 elections, even Bill Clinton became enthusiastic supporter of trade with China once he took lessons in foreign policy from Nixon in early 1993 during a special Whitehouse-arranged meeting.

By opening up American and European markets to cheap Chinese products, Western democracies have actually strengthened the hold of Communist Party over Chinese society by allowing the Communist leaders to wear a capitalist mask and generate huge employment opportunities for China’s hungry masses and in the process allow China to accumulate vast forex reserves that China successfully uses to buy all kind of military technology and natural resources worldwide.

Had it not been for that Nixon embrace in 1972, China’s economic miracle would have been far more slower with all the US, West European and East Asian markets closed to cheap Chinese products. Had it not been for that Nixon embrace, China’s technological progress would have been far slower in the absence of West’s technology transfers. Had it not been for that Nixon embrace, China’s military progress would have been far slower in the absence of huge forex reserves that China accumulated from the massive exports of cheap Chinese products and China used those forex reserves to acquire latest military technology.

If US had a upper hand in the first cold war against Soviet Union, then China has a upper hand against US in this second cold war. China has US by its tail - US businesses are hooked to huge profits that cheap Chinese products make for them as a walk through any Walmart, Sears, Home Depot or Macy’s filled with Chinese goods proves and US government is hooked to huge investments that China makes in US treasuries.

Little could Mao or even Deng have imagined that by wearing a capitalist mask, their followers will beat capitalists at their own game. Lenin used to say that ’capitalists will sell us the ropes with which we will hang them’. With the West selling such ropes (in the form of technology transfers), China has proved that Lenin saying quite prophetic.

Nixon’s embrace of China to counter Soviet Union has come back to haunt US in the form of second cold war just as Reagan’s embrace of Islamic fundamentalists to counter Soviet Union in Afghanistan came back to haunt US in the form of 9/11 attacks.

What goes around, comes around indeed.

 

TOMHE

9:47 AM ET

October 20, 2010

common ground

what if both US and China restart an exercise that is similar to what Nixon did 30 years ago - to seek a baseliine for a joint development?

 

MARIK7

11:59 AM ET

October 22, 2010

kudos

I have long thought that Nixon did the US as a nation no favors by opening the doors to China (although a minority of Americans have done very well by cheap Chinese labor). Your post makes clear why I was right to harbor such reservations.

One footnote (and I may be wrong): I have long thought that it was Khrushchev who made the "ropes...bury us" statement.

 

MARIK7

11:49 AM ET

October 22, 2010

The exchange

Multi-national corporations simply want to exchange American consumers with Chinese consumers. There are more of them. Of course, those firms wouldn't object to simply adding Chinese to American consumers, but they would then have to sacrifice the cheap labor that China provides. If there is no cheap labor in China, multi-national corporations will simply move their operations to another poor, but preferably large, country. The Chinese are smart to concentrate on producing the things their own citizens want, just as the United States did in the past.

 

MARKUSTEE

2:09 AM ET

October 23, 2010

I have no confidence that war will be averted.

MAYBE cooler heads will prevail. But there are few cooler heads in Washington these days, mostly there are dunderheads. There is nothing like a person that is afraid to make war to make a war happen.

It is necessary, to avoid being beat up by the bully, to punch the bully in the nose once in a while. Hard. And draw blood. Bullies are cowards by nature, but they sure make a mess of those that cower to them. In order to avoid a fight altogether, one only needs to be much stronger and more fierce than the bully. In this case, China takes the stand of the bully, although not for the same reason the schoolyard bully does.

China has little regard for human life, too many people to support, and a leadership that is unfamiliar with how a Westerner thinks. China is more than willing to kill and destroy a whole culture of people to implement their own. That makes them a potential bully. The ONLY reason that China has not been the aggressor to America so far is that we are soooo much stronger than they are. But we are loosing "o"'s. They are gaining on us.

And we have a leadership that is making us more and more vulnerable to China. Nothing like a weakling in the White House to make the nation more vulnerable to outside attack. He attacks US from within, they wait to attack from without.

If you don't believe it, then you have forgotten the lesson of December 7, 1941. The oriental mind is still oriental, and China is more aggressive than Japan.

 

NORBOOSE

4:13 PM ET

October 23, 2010

Deterrence

China and the US both have sufficient arsenals to end human civilization, and they both know it. Our leaders in DC and their leaders in Beijing know that they themselves would almost certainly be destroyed, along with their wealth, power, status, homes, loved ones, and anything else they might be emotionally attached to. Although there is always a small possibility of an accident, miscommunication, or an irrational decision made during a crisis, the two would never intentionally choose to go to war.

 

PUBLICUS

9:46 AM ET

November 15, 2010

War

There is an overlap of hard core Chinese and the Chinese Communist Party who together believe they can win a "clean" war against the United States and Japan. They think of al Qaeda as potentially useful in this way.

Beijing believes it can defeat the United States (and Japan for good measure) in a "clean" integrated war in inner orbital space, in cyberspace and on the seas. These people are scary to say the least.

The then PLA chief Gen Chi Haotian on June 6, 2009 wrote for all to read, "War is not far from us and is the midwife of the Chinese century."

Beijing is trying to develop a bullet missile that could hit a moving aircraft carrier, recently hit a bullet with a bullet when it destroyed in orbit its own failing weather satellite, is preparing its own GPS, mobile missile launchers and much more.

Much to the continuing surprise of Beijing, the US is well aware of these and many other aggressive designs, developments and actions. As part of the attempt to deter the PRC, Dr. Geoffrey Forden of MIT recently wrote "How China Loses the Coming Space War," linked below.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/01

However, I have absolutely no confidence that war can be avoided. It will come to us again from a new fascist aggressor far more fierce than any previous one, the PRC/CCP. We shall continue to prevail against this newest gang lunatic fascists, but at a continued great cost inflicted to ourselves and to others.

 

GEORGE MIFFLIN

11:38 PM ET

October 25, 2010

Come on -- at least take 20 minutes to do some research

The US exported less than 80 billion dollars to China in 2008, while importing +300 billion dollars worth of goods. The US is already in a trade war and would benefit if instead of lying on the ground the govt. actually began doing something to protect what's left of US industry.

Check out WTO Tariff Profiles 2009 -- Chinese tariffs are 3-5 times higher than US levels.

If their currency is undervalued by 40% as C. Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute has calculated, that means on average Chinese industry benefits from a tariff wall of 50-60% (China also has high tariff peaks)

Please: read up your Paul Samuelson and Paul Krugman before making broad statements. Samuelson in 2004 questioned economic orthodoxy, and last time I checked Krugman was the only living economist to have won a NOBEL PRIZE FOR TRADE THEORY -- Krugman is advocating the immediate imposition of tariffs of 25% which is, if anything, too modest.