Karzai: Don't let the door hit you on the way out
Afghan President Hamid Karzai took two actions this week that seemed deliberately designed to anger his U.S. sponsors. During a stormy meeting with Gen. David Petraeus, he reaffirmed his previous decision to expel the foreign security contractors which provide security for aid and development projects in the country (Karzai later granted a two-month delay to the shutdown). He then nonchalantly confirmed that he and his staff receive "bags of money," amounting to millions of dollars, on a regular basis from the Iranian government
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This one-two punch from Karzai seems specifically designed to undermine Petraeus's counterinsurgency strategy. Non-governmental aid organizations are already planning to shut down developments projects as the security contractor deadline looms; for U.S. officials, these development efforts are a major part of winning over the Afghan population. And Karzai's matter-of-fact acknowledgement of Iran's payoffs seems designed to anger and embarrass officials in Washington and perhaps even undermine U.S. public support for the war effort. By undermining U.S. plans, Karzai's actions may be speeding up the end-game for the U.S. campaign.
According to the New York Times, the meeting between Karzai and Petraeus on Oct. 24 to discuss the security contractors ended abruptly with Karzai storming out of the room. At a news conference the next day, Karzai angrily blamed U.S. government support for the contractors for causing the deaths of Afghan civilians. When then asked about Iranian payments to his chief of staff, Karzai replied, ""They do give us bags of money -- yes, yes, it is done ... We are grateful to the Iranians for this."
U.S. officials have sought to maneuver around the increasingly unreliable Karzai by dealing directly with local Afghan leaders. The president's suspension of the private security contractors is his reaction to this gambit; it will centralize the flow of development assistance through the ministries he and his team control and reduce sources of cash and favors in the Afghan provinces not under Kabul's control.
The establishment of a patronage relationship between Karzai and Tehran is logical for both sides and unsurprising. With the United States inevitably heading for the exit, Karzai has an obvious need to diversify his external support. As a neighboring power, Iran has an interest in obtaining influence within Afghanistan. What was surprising was Karzai's use of this revelation to antagonize U.S. officials and flagrantly flaunt his independence from their plans.
Karzai's seemingly deliberate attempt to speed up the end-game for the U.S. campaign is now increasingly evident. Perhaps he fears U.S. officials will be too successful establishing rivals to him. Or perhaps he fears that the longer the U.S. campaign goes on, the more chaotic conditions will become and the less control he will have over his own fate.
Whatever his reasoning, this week's events were evidence that Karzai is not only preparing for a post-American Afghanistan, he seems to be taking steps to hasten its arrival. One wonders how Karzai's new gambits fit into the U.S. campaign plan and what adjustments to that plan U.S. policymakers might now have to make.
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