Weak Ties

For all the excitement about India’s rise, its economic relationship with the United States remains more anemic than it could be. Why?

BY ANJA MANUEL | NOVEMBER 5, 2010

On the surface, all the elements are in place for an economic love affair between the United States and India. In the last decade, three American presidents -- including Obama -- have visited New Delhi with the explicit aiming of boosting bilateral trade. India's economy is growing at a very healthy 8 percent clip, and its democratic political system and rule of law -- not to mention its widespread English fluency -- should make it relatively easy for U.S. companies to sell into India and to invest there. The U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement gave hope for billions in commercial agreements between the two countries, and the recent thaw in the U.S.-Indian defense relationship (the Pentagon now conducts more military exercises with India than with any other bilateral partner), has U.S defense companies salivating. Yet the economic relationship between these two natural partners remains far below potential. Why?

The numbers tell the story. U.S. companies are investing heavily in India's economy, but not nearly at the level they are investing in China. In 2008, U.S. foreign direct investment in India was only approximately $3.5 billion (up from $0.7 billion in 2005), while U.S. investment into China was $15.8 billion (up from $1.9 billion in 2005).

The power to improve these figures is largely in Indian hands. Companies invest in Colombia, Vietnam, and other emerging markets because of those countries' explicitly pro-foreign investment policies. In contrast, companies invest in India in spite of its government, where, despite Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's admirable reforms, the legendary "license raj" -- the elaborate red tape required to set up and run businesses in India -- is still much in evidence.

India has instead relied on its inexpensive and well-educated labor force to attract foreign investment. This will not remain an asset for long. Wages are rising in some sectors at the rate of 20 percent per year. Increasingly, companies are looking at the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and other Asian countries as less-expensive outsourcing destinations. And despite its teeming masses, India's well-educated labor pool is actually quite small.

India could attract investment in spite of rising wages by continuing to liberalize and simplify its investment rules. The government's recent steps to permit foreign investment in multi-brand retail by mid-2011 (allowing Wal-Mart, and other foreign grocery store chains to operate in the country), could professionalize the agricultural sector and create additional employment opportunities for rural laborers. India's commitment to simplifying the tax code and labor regulations is a good start, but it must go further.

Bilateral trade is another missed opportunity. Although the United States is India's third-largest trading partner after China and the European Union, India ranks only 14th among the United States' trading partners. The U.S. share of India's market could shrink further due to free-trade deals India has just concluded with South Korea and Singapore, and is in the process of negotiating with Australia, Canada, the European Union, and Japan. For too many years, U.S. and Indian negotiators focused on resurrecting the failed Doha round of multilateral trade talks. Instead, the two countries should finally focus their efforts on the only achievable goal: completing their negotiations for a long-delayed bilateral investment treaty. This alone would significantly boost trade ties and encourage capital flows between the two countries.

Finally, the billions in contracts U.S. firms hoped to obtain as a result of the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement now look difficult: The Indian Parliament recently passed a nuclear liability law that makes nuclear equipment suppliers potentially liable for accidents for as long as 80 years. While state-supported nuclear equipment makers in France and Russia may be willing to accept such risks, American companies are not. India is increasingly buying U.S.-made military equipment, including some C-130s, military reconnaissance planes, and anti-ship missiles, but U.S. defense companies are hoping for much larger contracts in coming years. To further this trade and a more robust defense relationship in general, the Obama administration should follow through on its pledge to reform the cumbersome U.S. export-control system, which complicates India's attempts to purchase the most advanced U.S. technology, while India should revise its onerous offset regulations and allow greater foreign investment in its defense sector.

It is of course much easier to make these suggestions from outside the government than for either the United States or India to implement them. Both countries have struggled mightily with these issues. Singh's Congress Party-led government has increased the pace of reforms since winning a new, stronger mandate from voters in 2009. Nevertheless, Singh governs an unruly democracy, where many representatives are still hesitant to embrace a closer relationship with the United States. The U.S. government has similar problems reforming decades-old "standard operating procedures," such as its export control laws, at home.

In an increasingly multipolar world, the United States will want to foster the development of new "poles" that generally share U.S. values and can help maintain a healthy balance of power in Asia. An economically strong India is very much in the American interest. Tackling these barriers to economic cooperation in an ambitious, concerted manner would do much to sustain the positive momentum in U.S.-India relations begun by the civil nuclear accord, and is well worth the effort.

Ron Sachs-Pool/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: INDIA
 

Anja Manuel is a visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and a partner in the RiceHadley Group LLC, a strategic consulting firm.

BAYANKARAN

3:21 AM ET

November 5, 2010

As usual...

India could attract investment in spite of rising wages by continuing to liberalize and simplify its investment rules. The government's recent steps to permit foreign investment in multi-brand retail by mid-2011 (allowing Wal-Mart, and other foreign grocery store chains to operate in the country), could professionalize the agricultural sector and create additional employment opportunities for rural laborers.

The above statement is typical hogwash comment by a Western idealogue - 'my salary comes from a think tank, I need to propaganda to justify my salary' - analyst who can identify India in a map, but does not know anything about the country in detail.

Half truths and 'correlation equals causation' bite sized selling points are repeated.

There is no study or history which shows foreign investment in retail will professionalize agricultural sector (and what exactly is that, MBA's running farms?) or create additional employment opportunities. What this 'opening up' will provide is an additional revenue base for a multinational which is famous for obscene and immoral labor laws and practices in the West.

And despite its teeming masses, India's well-educated labor pool is actually quite small.

Compared to what is the labor pool small? Compared to US? Compared to Sub Saharan Africa?

While state-supported nuclear equipment makers in France and Russia may be willing to accept such risks, American companies are not.

We had an American company cutting corners for bettering the quarterly projections resulting in BHOPAL tragedy. And now, you need kid glove treatment for a far more dangerous nuclear energy.

Give me a break.

 

SAM FROM CALIFORNIA

1:04 PM ET

November 5, 2010

I agree w you

I was thinking of the practical possibility of centralizing the ownership of rural property in private hands and making the farmers wage laborers... would that be even remotely possible in much of India? If you were to do it, would it actually help a country already beset by social upheaval and revolutionary tendencies (ie Naxalites, secessionists)? The potential costs might be far greater than the costs of having small, poor farms. How are you going to feed the millions of farmers who can't get "professionalized" farm work or market hawkers who can't get "professionalized" wal-mart work? What might the environmental impact of this "professionalization" be? Is it even remotely sustainable?

And I agree too with the issue of liability... Bhopal was one of the worst environmental crimes in history, India is right to put strict controls on these deals.

I've noticed that many professors in America with big paychecks seem to totally ignore the lessons of the last 20 years when it comes to Indian and Chinese growth. Should they privatize industry? Maybe, you could make a case for it, but doing it because it seems to fit with a singular model of growth is naive. If you privatize socialized industry in the manner that the USSR did, for instance, you end up with a corrupt, unaccountable oligarchy. Should they make a free trade agreement with the US? Perhaps, but they might want to watch for a flood of subsidized American foodstuffs. Should they modernize their agriculture? Sure, but not if it comes at the cost of turning their land into a desert in 30 years or poisoning their ecosystem with too much fertilizer.

 

STICKYFEET

5:36 AM ET

November 7, 2010

Cheers @ Bayankaran and Sam I

Cheers @ Bayankaran and Sam

I was excited for some weekend reading on FP's India focus, but I was disappointed to find more than one article urge/imploring along the following lines:

1) for India to follow failed [traditional, western] policy prescriptions or policy prescriptions that do not fully consider Indian circumstances. Capitalism yes (in the real Adam Smith sense). Corporatism nyet.

2) for India to move towards the US position on climate change/security/trade/etc.

Probably one of the main reasons the US/India relationship has not fully blossomed and was cool at best for many years was precisely that India has not historically bought lock stock and barrel into American positions or policy ideas. It's for good reason - those American positions have not always been in India's interest and/or the policies are bad/harmful/parochial (yes...as parochial as some of India's own policies).

And now the US would like to determine whether India can be a "responsible" global player before the US is willing to give its support for permanent UN security council membership? That funny. Jon Stewart could do a nice skit on this one.

http://trivcap.wordpress.com

 

BANYANTREE

5:05 PM ET

November 5, 2010

Finally, someone who gets it right

Yes. I have been waiting for an article like this. Too many speeches on both the Indian and US sides tout the great business to business ties, the IT sector bridge between Bangalore and Silicon Valley etc.

As the author rightfully points out, this is all true, but there is lots of work still to be done. Let's hope Obama and Singh are able to announce some progress on the bilateral economic agenda during this visit.

 

MILANOCHIL

4:07 PM ET

November 15, 2010

I agree

Should they make gazeteler a free trade agreement with filmcin the US? Perhaps, tatil but they might want to watch for a flood of subsidized American klip izle foodstuffs. Should they modernize moliva their agriculture?