Fool's Gold

Why the idea of a gold standard is best relegated to the dustbin of history.

BY MARK T. WILLIAMS | NOVEMBER 10, 2010

As the G-20 gathers in South Korea on Nov. 10, fears of a currency war are looming. The battle lines are being drawn between those countries that export and those that import. Big exporters want to boost their sales -- a reason to make their currencies (and hence their products) cheaper. But debt-laden importers would prefer that China, among others, allow its currency to appreciate so that Chinese consumers could buy more of those goods. Japan has already cut the value of its currency; the dollar has also fallen 10 percent this year. So perilous is the diplomatic terrain that U.S. President Barack Obama sent a letter to G-20 leaders before they arrived in Seoul, prevailing on them to act with calm.

Amid the tensions and a fragile global economic recovery, it might be tempting to hear a certain monetary siren song: gold. On Monday, World Bank President Robert Zoellick proposed instituting a modified gold standard using a basket of big-five currencies -- the dollar, euro, yen, pound, and renminbi -- claiming it would help control inflation, deflation, and currency movement. The plan had something for everyone: a reality check for currencies that are undervalued, and a moderator for those too strong.

In times of economic uncertainty, gold has been the global currency of choice. It has no country and no central bank, so its price is entirely market driven. But don't be fooled: Whether it's a long-term investment, a quick-fix to stabilize global currencies, or a tool to keep central banks in check, gold is pyrite. And using a gold standard -- even a modified one -- would be a fool's errand.

Today, gold is in a bubble. The price stands at an all-time (non-inflation adjusted) high of about $1,400 per ounce. This is remarkable given that inflation remains well under 2 percent and the cost of mining the stuff has remained $450 to $550 per ounce. In other words, as soon as it is out of the ground, you can turn around and sell it for three times what it cost you to dig it up. Since 2000, this has been the story: Gold prices have known only one direction -- up. Despite economic ups and downs, it has produced an annualized return of 17 percent. Many speculators, hedgers, and contrarians have made a killing. New gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) have brought even more -- and more diverse -- investors on board. Those who bought gold in 2002 doubled their money by 2006 and repeated this financial alchemy by 2008. Investors that caught the gold bug as late as 2009 are up over 50 percent. This year alone, gold is up over 25 percent. A decade ago, it would have been heresy for institutional investors to invest in gold. Today, a 2 to 5 percent allocation of one's portfolio is increasingly viewed as prudent.

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

 

Mark T. Williams teaches finance at Boston University School of Management and is a senior advisor to the Brattle Group, a former U.S. Federal Reserve Bank examiner, and author of Uncontrolled Risk: The Lessons of Lehman Brothers and How Systemic Risk Can Still Bring Down the World Financial System.

THE AIR KING

1:51 AM ET

November 11, 2010

Some Valid Points But...

1. Some of the concerns against the gold standard are valid of course, but all of them rest on two spurious premises: that in the first place, gold is in a bubble and that "...the problem is that all these theories hold true in a recession, but they will fall flat once the global economy moves from chaos back to economic prosperity"; even assuming gold is in a bubble, I just want to ask- with the recent QE2 move by Bernanke, do you suppose we are going to return to a time of true economic prosperity as evinced by real growth or are we barrelling through another bubble and another worse decline? The second option I think would be the ideal result (among the worst) of this absurd gamble- that the money stays in the domestic market and some sort of bubble is created. Well and good, jobs and growth for another few years. But what happens if what occurs is a flight towards more profitable markets and a liquidity trap is created? By the same token, to use the author's words- "... the problem is that all these theories hold true in a prosperity".

2. "High gold prices are a symptom of -- not a solution to -- a problem: lost confidence in the Federal Reserve's and other central banks' abilities to create jobs and maintain economic stability. That mistrust has allowed a gold bubble to develop." True with regards to the first part, but the professor is confusing correlation with causation- that mistrust, while a symptom, did not cause people to flock to gold (or a bubble for that matter); what caused the gold rush- pardon the pun- was the reckless monetary policy of the Fed that allowed for excess liquidity, resulting in of course, the devaluation of what people had in their pockets.

3. Lastly, I do not support the gold standard per se- I'd prefer currencies to be tied to a basket of commodities. At any rate, rightly or wrongly, whether or not, the current price of gold is a bubble, the flock towards gold was a result of people wanting to attach value to something that couldn't be arbitrarily defined by an institution. The author formulates some valid points but the piece turns out to be a bit of a straw man and misses the point- people used to have a dollar to buy a Coke, now they need two. A lot of the same people want something else to buy that Coke.

 

ANDREWP111

2:44 PM ET

November 11, 2010

Peak Oil could make gold soar

Gold would be in a bubble except for one little thing - Peak Oil. Consider for a moment how high oil prices remain despite poor economic conditions. What do you think would happen if the economy took off and created a lot of extra demand? Why is Ben Bernanke still paying interest on excess reserves to the banks despite his full knowledge that this is restraining the banks from lending? Ben is hitting the accelerator (QE2) and the brakes (interest on reserves) at the same time. Once you realize that economic growth is globally capped by oil supplies, a lot of things start to make sense.

Now consider what would happen if OPEC started pricing oil in terms of gold bullion?

 

ADAM SHARP

11:13 PM ET

November 12, 2010

QE 3, 4, 5, 6, 7?

Hi Mark,

I have to wonder - were you a QE2 doubter? A year ago, which did you think the Fed would do first, ease or tighten?

If you thought tighten (Bernanke's laughable WaPo exit strategy speech), you do not adequately understand the fundamentals of this situation.

The most common error among gold bears that I have observed is a focus on deflation. They keep saying, "the fed is more worried about deflation than inflation". Of course they are, lol. It is that "worry" (aka concern about bank profitability and viability) that will feed inflation.

The Fed will seize on any sign of deflation to justify further greasing. Who gets paid? The banks of course, the same ones who own the Fed.

The only curb on Fed printing will be a political sea-change, when American's finally wise up. Until then, it's Bernanke's misinterpretation of Friedman, helicopters, bags of money, and bonuses out the a$$.

 

DREGHORN

12:49 PM ET

November 13, 2010

Fool's Gold for investing, yes, but...

This piece sure hit on why it would not be wise to invest in Gold presently, as it most certainly is in a bubble due to collapse. But it fails to address the ideas of a "Gold Standard." The idea of a Gold Standard does not tie value to the gold but rather makes the gold serve as a means of conveying value. Money is worthless, but what it represents has value. The idea of a Gold Standard is that we would have one currency for all such that none could manipulate their respective currency at the pain of another currency. This article completely failed to address this fact and that notion and therefore failed to tell why a Gold Standard would not work. What it did was point to the idea of gold as a commodity being a pure choice to seek out presently, though certainly electronics industries will still want it for its low resistance to current or high conductance value and defense will want it for its EM shielding. A Gold Standard would work well in the world assuming two other factors: 1. Truly, completely Free Trade, and 2. Open borders with free migration available to and from anywhere in the world with no hassle. With these, then goods could be produced where best able and folks to produce them could get around to make them. Without these, then the one currency idea, or Gold Standard, would fail as certain markets would heat up or cool with folks unable to adapt. That is why we need multiple currencies today, in order to adapt to changing economic conditions in which political conditions prevent us from naturally adjusting ourselves. Paul Krugman explains this rather well in his discussion of why the dollar worked within the United States, which is a diverse geographic and economic area, but why Ron Paul is wrong to seek a Gold Standard, in his book The Return of Depression Economics. New question: Would people tolerate free trade, open borders, and a single currency? I think not as that sounds suspiciously like a world government though I think it would not be that bad a thing to have.

 

DREGHORN

12:52 PM ET

November 13, 2010

"Poor" not "pure," sorry.

"Poor" not "pure," sorry.

 

OLD.FRT

9:21 PM ET

November 13, 2010

An adage

One formulation:

Gold is the money of kings.
Silver is the money of gentlemen.
Barter is the money of peasants.
But debt is the money of slaves.