The Fog of Containment

George Kennan shouldn't be our Cold War guide to dealing with Iran. Try Richard Nixon.

BY FLYNT LEVERETT, HILLARY MANN LEVERETT | NOVEMBER 15, 2010

In the coming weeks, the United States may well be joining a new round of nuclear negotiations with Iran. But, rather than working to promote their success, most commentators seem to be consumed with explaining their anticipated failure. And their follow-up policy prescriptions seem designed to do more harm than good. Take Karim Sadjadpour's article, "The Sources of Soviet Iranian Conduct," in the November issue of Foreign Policy. Sadjadpour seeks to adapt George Kennan's famous 1947 "Mr. X" article -- which proposed the outlines of the Cold War "containment" strategy used against the Soviet Union -- for America's current Iran debate.

"Like the Soviet Union, the Islamic Republic is a corrupt, inefficient, authoritarian regime whose bankrupt ideology resonates far more abroad than it does at home," Sadjadpour writes. "Also like the men who once ruled Moscow, Iran's current leaders have a victimization complex and, as they themselves admit, derive their internal legitimacy from thumbing their noses at Uncle Sam." It's a clever conceit, but it would be a disaster for U.S. interests if Sadjadpour's piece attains anything close to the level of influence achieved by Kennan's.

That's so for three main reasons. First, Sadjadpour's reading of the drivers of Iranian foreign policy is profoundly at odds with the historical record of the Islamic Republic's actual conduct. Second, his policy prescriptions would keep the United States from acting in its own best interests to pursue a comprehensive realignment of U.S.-Iranian relations. Third, his policy prescriptions would lead ultimately to a U.S.-initiated military confrontation with Iran.

Sadjadpour uses a highly selective exegesis of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's rhetoric about the United States as a basis for arguing that the Islamic Republic's very survival requires antagonism with America. This is a politically convenient argument, absolving Washington of any responsibility to engage seriously with Tehran, until the deus ex machina of "regime change" solves the Iran problem.

It is, however, incorrect. In his role as supreme leader since 1989, Khamenei has approved multiple Iranian initiatives to reach out to the United States, across the Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Ahmadinejad presidencies. These initiatives include Iranian assistance to free American hostages in Lebanon in the late 1980s and early 1990s, coordination with Washington to provide weapons to beleaguered Bosnian Muslims in the mid-1990s, extensive cooperation with the United States over Afghanistan and al Qaeda following the 9/11 attacks, U.S.-Iranian ambassadorial talks regarding Iraq in 2007, and offers of comprehensive talks with the United States in 2003, 2008, and 2009.

If Khamenei is deeply suspicious of America's ultimate intentions toward the Islamic Republic, this is perhaps because, in every one of the cases just cited, it was the United States that cut off ongoing tactical cooperation with Tehran or rejected serious overtures aimed at realigning U.S.-Iranian relations.

Indeed, Khamenei is still open to rapprochement. In response to U.S. President Barack Obama's 2009 Nowruz (Persian New Year) message, Khamenei said: "You change [your policies toward the Islamic Republic], and we shall change as well." That is not, as Sadjadpour implies, a "cynical response" to Obama -- it is an invitation to put a serious and substantive agenda on the table aimed at realigning U.S.-Iranian relations.

These are things that Obama, to this day, has never done. Sending vague letters to the supreme leader while ignoring letters sent to Obama by Iran's elected president (something that Sadjadpour advised the White House to do) came across in Tehran as yet another crass attempt to manipulate the Iranian political system. And as we have previously pointed out, Obama has done this while continuing Bush-era covert operations meant to destabilize the Islamic Republic and expanding anti-Iranian sanctions.

As Sadeq Kharrazi -- a former senior Foreign Ministry official who is both an outspoken reformist and a relative of Khamenei -- said recently, "The road to Washington passes through the supreme leader's office... The leadership has set the terms and conditions, and he is not against détente between Iran and any other country, even the U.S. What he opposes is resumption of ties based on pre-revolution arrangements."

Kharrazi's words should be taken seriously -- as testimony that U.S.-Iranian realignment is possible and as an indicator of what is required from the U.S. side to achieve it. But Sadjadpour's contrived analysis leads inexorably to dismissal of a realignment of relations between Washington and Tehran of the sort that the United States and the People's Republic of China achieved in the 1970s. Instead, Sadjadpour draws out an analogy between the Islamic Republic and the Soviet Union, with an accompanying policy recommendation that the United States use militarized containment against Iran until fundamental political change -- encouraged by Washington -- occurs.

To develop this analogy, Sadjadpour quotes liberally from Kennan's "Mr. X" article, striking through references to the "Soviet Union" to replace them with the "Islamic Republic," substituting the "party" with the "supreme leader," and so on.

Borrowing Sadjadpour's method, we find it instructive to go through a similar exercise with a pair of historically significant chronicles of Sino-American rapprochement. One is the chapter on President Richard Nixon's opening to China in Henry Kissinger's Diplomacy. The other is a 1983 article, "The Process of Rapprochement" (published in the volume Sino-American Normalization and Its Policy Implications) by retired U.S. diplomat Chas Freeman, who, as Nixon's interpreter in Beijing, was "present at the creation" of the modern U.S.-China relationship.

Kissinger sets the strategic context for Sino-American Iranian-American rapprochement:

For Nixon Obama, the anguishing process of extricating America from Vietnam Afghanistan and Iraq had, in the end, been about maintaining America's standing in the world. Even without the purgatory, a major reassessment of American foreign policy would have been in order, for the age of America's nearly total dominance of the world stage was drawing to a close. America's nuclear superiority post-Cold War global hegemony was eroding, and its economic supremacy was being challenged by the dynamic growth of Europe and Japan China and the rest of rising Asia...Vietnam Afghanistan and Iraq finally signaled that it was high time to reassess America's role in the developing Muslim world, and to find some sustainable ground between abdication and overextension...

Nixon Obama found himself in the position of having to guide America through the transition from dominance to leadership... Nixon Obama sought to navigate according to a concept of America's national interest -- repugnant as that idea was to many traditional idealists... Nixon Obama said: ‘We will regard our Communist adversaries the Islamic Republic first and foremost as nations a nation pursuing their its own interests as they it perceive perceives these interests, just as we follow our own interests as we see them'."

In this context, Kissinger underscores the indispensability of a top-down, comprehensive approach to Sino-American Iranian-American rapprochement:

By the summer of 1969 fall of 2010, Nixon Obama concluded that the U.S. needed "to concentrate on the broader issue of China's Iran's attitude toward dialogue with the United States," instead of letting grievances determine the relationship. "If relations did not improve, the traditional agenda would remain insoluble. In other words, the practical issues would be resolved as a consequence of Sino-American Iranian-American rapprochement, not chart the path toward it."

Similarly Freeman, to illustrate how a transformational foreign-policy president does not let nonstrategic perturbations become obstacles to achieving his strategic goal, recounts how "Nixon Obama approved a resumption of the Sino-American ambassadorial talks in Warsaw agreed to negotiate with Iran over the refueling of a research reactor in Tehran. The meeting, scheduled for February 20, 1969, was abruptly canceled by the Chinese Iranians accepted the Administration's proposal on refueling the reactor ‘in principle', but wanted to negotiate some aspects of the arrangement...While expressing disappointment, the new Obama administration pledged ‘new initiatives to re-establish more normal relations with Communist China' the Islamic Republic...The United States quietly ended the Seventh Fleet's 19-year patrolling of the Taiwan Strait CIA covert operations intended to destabilize the Islamic Republic...In later describing the steps his administration had taken over the course of 1969 2010 to demonstrate U.S. seriousness to engage the PRC Islamic Republic, Nixon Obama wrote that they were ‘specific steps that did not require Chinese Iranian agreement but which underlined our willingness to have a more normal and constructive relationship'."

Freeman chronicles how this strategic commitment continued into the Carter Administration even after the Democrats' 2010 midterm election defeat. He cites Richard Holbrooke, Carter's Obama's Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan as saying that the United States should be prepared "to acknowledge our national interest in the development of a strong, secure, prosperous, and friendly China Iran that could play a legitimate and constructive role in the Asia-Pacific Middle East region and ultimately in the world."

According to Freeman, even after China invaded Vietnam in February 1979  Iran's contested June 2009 presidential election, Vice President Walter Mondale Joseph Biden traveled to China in August 1979 to proclaim proclaimed America's support for "a strong and secure and modernizing China Iran... despite the sometimes profound differences between our two systems, we are committed to joining with you to advance our many parallel strategic and bilateral interests. Thus any nation which seeks to weaken or isolate you in world affairs assumes a stance counter to American interests."

If the Obama administration had the kind of strategic seriousness toward Iran shown by those Nixon-era officials in their dealings with China, Washington would use a comprehensive realignment of U.S.-Iranian relations to channel the Islamic Republic's regional influence to support important U.S. interests in Afghanistan, Iraq, or Israel and Palestine. But Sadjadpour would have us forgo all that and, instead, work to "contain" Iran.

In contrast to the Cold War's U.S.-Soviet standoff, America's pursuit of a containment strategy toward the Islamic Republic would be inherently unstable, leading eventually to a U.S.-Iranian military confrontation. This would be the case for at least two reasons.

First, while America and the Soviet Union were roughly at parity in their military capabilities, the United States is and will remain vastly superior to Iran in every category of military power, conventional or otherwise -- as senior Iranian officials publicly acknowledge. Absent a strategic understanding with Washington, Tehran will continue to assume and act as if the ultimate objective of America's Iran policy were the Islamic Republic's overthrow.

Second, in an atmosphere of ongoing uncertainty about America's ultimate intentions, Iranian leaders will continue working to defend their country's core security interests through cultivation of proxy allies in neighboring states and elsewhere, along with the further development of 'asymmetric' military capabilities. Such moves will inevitably be interpreted in Washington as highly provocative. No U.S. administration, of either party, would be able to maintain domestic support for containment as the Islamic Republic pursued these policies.

For over 30 years, Washington pundits have hoped that the Islamic Republic is on the verge of collapse, and that a successor political order would inevitably be more malleable to U.S. purposes. That same ungrounded hope skewed the judgments of almost all U.S.-based Iran "experts," including Sadjadpour, about the Islamic Republic's 2009 presidential election and its aftermath. But the reality is that the majority of Iranians inside Iran today -- even those who want the Islamic Republic to evolve significantly -- do not want to abandon the country's current political order for a Western-style secular democracy.

Ultimately, a strategy of containing Iran will lead to a U.S.-Iranian military confrontation -- a far cry from Sadjadpour's dream of the Islamic Republic's strategic and political collapse.

Behrouz Mehri/AFP

 SUBJECTS: IRAN
 

Flynt Leverett directs the New America Foundation's Iran Initiative. Hillary Mann Leverett heads a political risk consulting firm. Both lecture at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and publish www.RaceForIran.com.

MARK_SISTANI

6:45 PM ET

November 15, 2010

The Leveretts--Ahmadinejad's lobbyists in Washington

What does one expect from the Iranian regime's top lobbyists in Washington? The Leveretts are former AIPAC and CIA employees who have now found a higher bidder. Ten years ago they advocated the harshest sanctions against the Khatami government, now they fawn over Ahmadinejad.

 

DAMIANCOMMENT

8:56 PM ET

November 15, 2010

The Leveretts Engaged Khatami's Government

While in government, Hillary Mann Leverett participated in nearly two years of talks with Khatami government officials, from 2001-2003, over Afghanistan and al Qaida. Both Hillary and Flynt argued for engagement with Khatami's government while they worked in the U.S. government and after they resigned. You should be ashamed to cast aspersions on their motives without any evidence to support your lies.

 

GOOZLETTE

11:31 PM ET

November 15, 2010

two shameful apologists

actually the record is out there, when hillary mann worked for AIPAC's think tank, the washington institute for near east policy, she advocated sanctioning the "terrorist" government of mohammed khatami! what changed?? the fact that the leveretts found a higher bidder--oil companies and the iranian regime. they are a pathetic duo who have never met a dictator they didn't love! here is an in depth account of hillary mann's famous flip-flop:

Hilary Mann Leverett, and her husband Flynt Leverett, both former American national security officials of some repute, have recently turned themselves into the Salahis of foreign policy punditry. (Not my joke, alas, I heard it from a friend). In their recent op-ed in the Times, they argue that Iran is not about to implode, that the recent anti-government demonstrations amounted to very little, if anything, and that the best policy for the Obama Administration to pursue would be one of full-on engagement with the current regime:

The Obama administration's half-hearted efforts at diplomacy with Tehran have given engagement a bad name. As a result, support for more coercive options is building across the American political spectrum. The president will do a real disservice to American interests if he waits in vain for Iranian political dynamics to "solve" the problems with his Iran policy.

As a model, the president would do well to look to China. Since President Richard Nixon's opening there (which took place amid the Cultural Revolution), successive American administrations have been wise enough not to let political conflict -- whether among the ruling elite or between the state and the public, as in the Tiananmen Square protests and ethnic separatism in Xinjiang -- divert Washington from sustained, strategic engagement with Beijing. President Obama needs to begin displaying similar statesmanship in his approach to Iran.

This was not always Hillary Mann Leverett's worldview.

Before she married Flynt Leverett, there was Hillary Mann, hardcore anti-Iran agitator. As an Iran expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the late 1990s, she argued that Iran was a primary exporter of terrorism, and that the then-president of Iran, Ayatollah Khatami, was not a reformer and moderate, as he had been widely billed, but a radical in sheep's clothing. In other words, in the late 1990s, before the rise of Ahmadinejad; before the acceleration of Iran's nuclear program; before genocidal anti-Israel rhetoric emanating from Iran had become commonplace; before Iran sponsored the killing of American soldiers; and before the regime slaughtered its own people when they demanded freedom, Hillary Mann believed that Iran was a terror state worthy only of rigorous sanctions:

The April 10 German court finding that Iran's top leaders ordered the assassination of several dissidents in Berlin underscores the hollowness of Europe's policy of engagement with Iran, and presents the U.S. with a unique opportunity to make Iran's leaders pay a real economic price for their brazen disregard of international norms. Unfortunately, recent steps by Washington risk frittering this opportunity away. Most disconcerting was the announcement on April 11-barely 24 hours after the German court ruling-that the U.S. and the European Union (EU) had agreed to pursue avenues for sheltering European companies from the effects of last year's Iran sanctions legislation, the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA). Belatedly realizing the agreement's corrosive message, the State Department insisted that the agreement contained "no commitment, legal or political, to grant waivers" from ILSA. But the damage was done. The agreement, coming so close on the heels of the German court ruling, served to fuel growing doubts about America's will to vigorously enforce sanctions.

She goes on to write:

The U.S. needs to seize the opportunity created by Germany's indictment of Iran's leaders to reenergize its own policy. Pressing Europe diplomatically is important but not enough, as shown by the EU's weak response to the German court verdict-basically, withdrawing its ambassadors for a few weeks and suspending ministerial meetings. It reflects a lowest common denominator style designed precisely to deflect demands for more serious steps. With American credibility on the line, Washington should make it clear at the highest levels that the U.S. intends to enforce ILSA vigorously to deter further investment in Iran and to make Iran's leaders actually pay a real economic price for their sponsorship of international terrorism.

Her views at the time on Iran's sponsorship of terrorism were clear and uncompromising:
On January 7, 1998, Iran's President Khatemi told America-via CNN-that terrorism "should be condemned . . . and we condemn every form of it in the world." Khatemi also "denied categorically" reports that Iranian officials abroad regularly engage in acts of surveillance against Americans. These are encouraging words. However, a review of Iranian, Arab and American media reports shows that Iran's links to international terrorism appear to have continued unabated since he assumed office in August 1997. U.S. government officials from different agencies responsible for the fight against terror confirmed the thrust of these reports-that Iran remains active in support of international terrorism in each of the areas outlined below-though they did not comment on the veracity of the individual media citations.

So what happened? What changed? Two things: Iran fully embraced its rogue status, and Hillary Mann lost her bearings.

 

MARK BLUSH

7:20 AM ET

November 16, 2010

Unfair and Silly

What do the Leveretts get besides insults for the reasonable statements that they make?

 

KASEMAN

11:08 AM ET

November 16, 2010

Israel controls the agenda

The Leveretts, AIPAC loyalists , are merely fudging the key factor, which is that their real country, Israel, controls the entire US agenda on the Muslim world. Most revealing is the current "bribe" the US will pay to Avigdor Lieberman, a former Moldavian night club bouncer, to "freeze" settlements for just 90 days, and then of course resume them.

So 1200 settlers waiting 90 days from more landgrabbing, gets the US to give Israel $3 billion worth of bombers. Do the math. Aren't we suppose to have the most severe financial problems in 60 years?
And what will the 20 bombers be used for? Bomb Iran!

So much about the US being a global super power. Sic transit gloria.
For the Israelis to bleed for all its worth. And why not? AIPAC is backed by 100 million white Christian fundamentalist who think their Jesus wants the Muslim world wiped out so good Christians can achieve salvation. Israelis have know for decades that they can milk these suckers ad infinitum. So there never will be any peace in the ME.

 

ROYAZ

8:09 PM ET

November 16, 2010

Iran’s Man in Washington

Iran’s Man in Washington

How Flynt Leverett and his wife, Hillary Mann Leverett, became leading advocates for doing business with Tehran

BY LEE SMITH | Feb 9, 2010 7:00 AM

Flynt Leverett is fielding questions from an audience at the New American Foundation for a panel titled “What the Iranian People Really Think,” and the crowd—at least the Iranian part of it—is starting to get hostile. When Leverett cites poll numbers suggesting that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad most likely won Iran’s heavily contested June presidential election, the Iranians sitting near me in the glass-box conference room direct a chorus of groans and sarcastic laughter toward the podium, where the 51-year-old think-tank celebrity sits with his hands folded in front of him.

During the question-and-answer portion of the evening, the voices of the Iranian questioners tremble with anger. What do you know, they ask, about Iran or its people and how the Islamic Republic treats them? Leverett handles the questions with a confidence born of being one of the most influential Iran experts in Washington—a position that he has earned despite having neither an academic background in the field nor the ability to speak Farsi.

Leverett’s wife and colleague, Hillary Mann Leverett, a neatly dressed, seven-months-pregnant brunette who sits in the front row and watches her husband, is a bona fide Iran expert who served on the Iran desk of George W. Bush’s National Security Council staff, where her husband worked on broader Middle East issues. But Flynt Leverett subscribes to the realist school of foreign policy, which holds that knowing the internal mechanisms of a regime and the particular characteristics of a language and culture are largely irrelevant to understanding its geopolitical actions. Despite their fondest hopes, the Iranian opposition members in the audience aren’t going to return to a newly democratic Iran any time soon because, as Leverett has explained in a string of recent articles including a New York Times op-ed, the current Iranian regime isn’t going anywhere—so we better deal with it.

In Leverett’s opinion, the White House has made a hash of engagement with Iran, and the mullahs appear to respond better to his overtures than they do to requests from the Obama administration: unlike the president, the Secretary of State, or any other American diplomats or officials, Leverett has actually scored a precious invitation to Tehran. “We do not have a visa,” Leverett explained to me in an email. “Which as I am sure you have heard is a cumbersome process.” Still, it’s quite a coup. Access equals influence in Washington, and the fact that Leverett gets to go to Tehran, an itinerary envied by policymakers and access-peddlers, underlines his status as one of the most important Iran experts in town.

The curious dance between Washington’s Iran experts and the foreign government whose actions they are supposedly analyzing has parallels in the ways that totalitarian governments like the Soviet Union and Mao’s China manipulated Western public opinion by only granting access to scholars and policy hands who would toe the party line. Similarly, the Iranian government today decides who in the West will be granted the kind of access that will allow them to speak with authority about the regime to Washington. Western scholars and policy wonks alike understand that access to the regime is a form of currency that can make you powerful, or rich, or both. Washington’s ambitious and talented, its romantic opportunists looking to attach themselves to a beautiful cause, and those eyeing fat commissions for opening Iran’s energy resources to U.S. companies, all see access to the Iranian regime as the biggest prize in the foreign policy game.

Yet unlike Maoist China or Soviet Russia, both closed societies, Iran is a divided country where crowds have protested in the streets for over half a year. The regime there is split into two dueling camps. In addition to representatives of the democratic opposition, Washington hosts a team of experts who advocate the party line of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani—let’s call them the “reformers”—who are critical of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, but, unlike the democratic opposition, have no wish to bring down the system. But a second team of experts supports Ahmadinejad and Khamenei, and no one makes their case better than Leverett. “Flynt has a good understanding of how that government works,” says his New America colleague Steven Clemons. “He sees Khamenei as the guy that matters. What he believes is that Khamenei is a shrewd calculating operator who moves Iran’s strategic interest.” Leverett’s colleagues were surprised by the invitation. “I was pleased as punch that New America has been designated twice by the regime as an institution off-limits,” Clemons told me, adding that he respects the Leveretts’ right to hold differing policy positions.

The opposition camp has been critical of Leverett for his collaborations with Mohamed Marandi, director of Tehran University’s Institute for North American Studies and the son of Khamenei’s personal physician, who appears to have facilitated Leverett’s upcoming visit. “The University of Tehran is the institution which has applied for our visas,” Leverett explained to me.

Leverett was offended when I asked if the Revolutionary Guard had played a role in his invitation, and yet there’s little doubt that his co-author is personally and professionally close to the regime—and publicly justifies some of its most brutal actions. Since the June elections, Marandi has been the Ahmadinejad government’s key spokesperson in the English-language media, and he recently defended the regime’s sentencing opposition members to death. His true occupation may be even more unsavory. “He passes himself off as an academic, but he’s with the Ministry of Intelligence,” says Ramin Ahmadi, co-founder of the Iran Human Rights Documentary Center and a professor of medicine at Yale.

Of course, if you need to make the case that you have a genuine channel to the regime’s inner sanctum, it’s hard to do better than to partner with a hard-core regime man like Marandi. In the realist view, Leverett’s strong stomach and lack of sentimental attachments is proof that he is coming from the right place. “Flynt comes from a very strong national-interest point of view and emphasizes energy security,” says David Frum, a former Bush speechwriter and a frequent guest at dinner seminars at the Leveretts’ Northern Virginia home. “They’re background dinners, usually about eight to 10 people, weapons experts, energy experts, Iranian nationals, with varied points of view on the Middle East,” he says. While Frum explains that Leverett’s “domestic politics are on the conservative, not liberal, side,” it is also true that Leverett’s fame and acceptance in Washington policymaking circles rests on the fact that he was lionized by liberals for his opposition to the Bush administration’s Iran policy.

The story of Leverett’s rise and fall and rise embodies the upside-down weirdness of the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, when obscure Middle East experts and Washington bureaucrats occupied center stage of the national debate. It’s safe to say that in less turbulent times, and under a less controversial president, no one would have ever heard of Flynt Leverett. Born in Memphis, Tennessee, Leverett earned a bachelor’s degree from Texas Christian University, earned a doctorate in politics from Princeton, honed his Arabic-language skills in Damascus, and joined the CIA during a period when the agency was not especially known for running agents, or paying much attention to Iran.

In 2001, after a decade at the agency, Leverett landed a plum position on the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, then headed by Richard Haass, and was subsequently named senior director for Middle East affairs on the National Security Council staff. In the interagency process that coordinates policymakers in the bureaucracies across Washington—defense, state, White House, CIA—Leverett earned a reputation for committing what are known as “process fouls.” “That’s when you intentionally exclude other policymakers,” says a former senior-level Defense Department official. “Leverett did that to us all the time, withholding a paper and cutting us out of the debate because he feared, rightly, we were going to disagree with him.”

But it was Leverett’s disagreements with the president that, in his account, compelled him, as he wrote in 2005, “to leave the administration.” However, as another former member of the Bush NSC staff explained, Leverett did not leave his post by choice. “The job of a director on the NSC staff is bureaucratic,” says the former Bush official. “If there’s a deputies’ meeting, you take notes. When you get a letter from a foreign government, you log it in and draft a response.” Leverett continually missed deadlines and misplaced documents, and the NSC Records office had a long list of his delinquencies. His office was notoriously messy—documents were strewn over chairs, windowsills, the floor, and piled high on his desk. For Condoleezza Rice, then the national security adviser and a famously well-organized “clean desk” type, repeatedly missing deadlines and losing important letters was simply not tolerable behavior for an NSC officer, and Leverett was told to leave.

Returning to the CIA briefly before retiring from government service in the spring of 2003, Leverett moved on to the Brookings Institution, and then the New America Foundation, as he began to reinvent himself as an Iran expert with the help of his wife. Hillary Mann Leverett claimed that after rotating back to the State Department from the White House in April 2003 she had received a fax from a Swiss diplomat acting as an intermediary on behalf of the Iranians, offering what the Leveretts would come to call the Grand Bargain. According to the Swiss fax, she said, the Islamic Republic would cease support for terrorist organizations, terminate its nuclear weapons program, and recognize Israel if the United States would in turn guarantee that it had no designs to topple the regime.

So why didn’t the Americans bite? As the Leveretts explained in a series of interviews and their own articles, including, most famously, a 2006 op-ed in the New York Times published with redactions ordered by the Bush White House, it was because of Bush and the neoconservatives, who intended to lead the United States to war again.

As the missed Grand Bargain became another proof of Bush’s incompetence, Leverett and his wife found themselves the center of a great deal of positive attention among reporters, talk-show hosts, and Democratic politicos. The couple was profiled in Esquire, and Flynt enjoyed a guest spot with Jon Stewart. The problem is that it wasn’t the neocons who dismissed the plausibility of the offer; rather it was Flynt Leverett’s putative allies, including then-Secretary of State Colin Powell and his deputy, Richard Armitage. Other staffers don’t remember it at all. As a former colleague on the NSC staff recalls, “this historical document arrives and Condi Rice and Stephen Hadley don’t remember it, and only Flynt does. It was either a concoction of the Swiss ambassador, or of the Swiss ambassador and the Leveretts together.”

Even as the legend of the Grand Bargain has been discredited, the tale—a narrative describing a sensible, realistic Iran eagerly courting a stubborn Washington, with the Leveretts in the middle of things—served its purpose. It not only identified the couple as critics of the Bush administration, it also certified them as experts about the Iranian regime—and as instruments through which the regime might influence Washington.

 

LIZZ

1:01 AM ET

November 17, 2010

Making Accusations Against the Leveretts is Childish

Those who constantly attack the Leveretts have no reason or logic.

 

LIZZ

1:10 AM ET

November 17, 2010

The Leveretts are Among the Few in DC who Lobby for Stability

This very good piece makes one realize that in this time of crisis - and things in the US will get worse as China and India rise and our money is spent on perpetual wars - there is another way.

Good for them both. We will one day have to choose the path proposed by the Leveretts, but we will probably have to offer the Iranians better terms in the future. Time is on their side and they know it.

 

ROBERT D.

2:20 AM ET

November 17, 2010

A Brave Article

Why did these two people leave the White House? We all know they are spot on and we all know America is heading for the rocks, so why not change course?

 

ROYAZ

7:40 PM ET

November 15, 2010

wishful thinking

silly article by silly people

 

MARK BLUSH

7:52 AM ET

November 16, 2010

Silly Reply to a Good Article

As I wrote, "Silly Reply to a Good Article". Probably written by one of our paid greens who has a vested interest in promoting confrontation.

 

CYCLICFORWARD

9:47 PM ET

November 15, 2010

What do people do for a few bucks.

This is a perfect example of how a few people are willing to do anything to just make a buck. People are dying in Iranian jails and their terrorists rake havoc in middle east and these characters want to negotiate with me. I don't think so.

 

LEEN

11:26 PM ET

November 15, 2010

Baloney

What a sham. The U.S./Israel are not interested in human rights in Iran. Total baloney

 

DRACARYS

8:55 AM ET

November 17, 2010

Double Standards

Political prisoners are dying in Chinese prisons as well. Should the US cut diplomatic ties and pursue a confrontation policy with China? Not to mention Saudi Arabia, the greatest sponsor of Islamic fundamentalism. How about Pakistan´s ISI? Or Morocco´s repression of Western Sahara?

Get real, US foreign policy is not dictated by human rights considerations.

 

REBEL_INK

10:53 PM ET

November 15, 2010

An ode to narrow mindedness

I for one am glad that when faced with a complex international issue, our first reaction is to deride and denigrate those who suggest engagement. Military power is an obviously potent enough persuader to coerce any nation-state into acting in America's best interests.
I am sure we will be able to sanction Iran into internal regime change in just a few (30 is obviously not enough) more years, and the local citizens will throw off the oppressive bands of their ancient faith and embrace the joys of secular American democracy.

 

ARNOLD EVANS

10:59 PM ET

November 15, 2010

Israel must be considered in assessing US in the Middle East

An important difference between China in 1970 and Iran today is that Taiwan was no Israel. A US President, Bill Clinton, has claimed that if Israel was in danger, he would jump into a ditch with a rifle if necessary to defend Israel. No US President had ever said anything like that regarding Taiwan.

The degree of sentimental attachment in US leadership, especially US foreign policy leadership to Israel dwarfs anything that could be said for any other country.

Taiwan is also an island that is naturally defensible. Israel's security is much more difficult to guarantee. Taiwan can survive with a fully nuclear China that openly calls for its annexation, because of the water and the US Navy which is dominant and so far undefeated.

Israel would be threatened in a profound way if any of its neighbors, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan was even nuclear capable the way Japan, Brazil and Canada are. Even without nuclear weapons, Israel may not be viable if Egypt, Jordan or Saudi Arabia were even independent, if they were as accountable to their own people as they are to their US Embassies.

So Israel is much more strategically fragile than Taiwan, and the US is much more strongly attached to Israel than to Taiwan. A peace that could allow Iran to become a regional power that does not accept Israel's legitimacy the way China is an emerging global power that does not accept Taiwan's, is for now, with the US political system the way it is, not tenable to the US.

By any unsentimental assessment of US interests, Iran and a Saudi Arabia that is democratic or otherwise accountable to its people, and an Egypt that is democratic or otherwise accountable to its own people and even a Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, would make far better allies for the US than Israel. But the US, for sentimental reasons, seems structurally unable to make that trade.

Instead, we have to accept US hostility toward Iran as a given due to the U/S political system and try to minimize the damage. If we can limit the hostility to tough talk - but not get into a ground war where the US in Iraq and Afghanistan plays the role Israel played in Lebanon until 2000. Preferably to avoid even sanctions that turn Iran toward the Chinese and away from the US in a way that becomes progressively more difficult to undo - that would be a great thing.

 

REBEL_INK

11:25 PM ET

November 15, 2010

Good Points

Mr. Evans-

I tend to agree that it is almost impossible for America's political body to objectively consider its relationship with Israel. I also agree that as long as Israel is given a preeminent role in US Mid-East policy making, US-Iran relations are not likely to improve. I think one of the underlying arguments being presented by the author of the article is a reevaluation of long-term US strategic goals in the region.

Additionally, Israel and Iran have worked together in the past, for example during the Hussein years in Iraq. It is not inconceivable the two states could work together in the future in the role of dual-hegemony supported by the U.S. This scenario seems much more likely if American engages Iran rather than resorting bellicose language and hoping a demagogue does not rise to a position of leadership on a platform of increasing escalations either here or abroad.

 

LEEN

11:39 PM ET

November 15, 2010

Bill Clinton

Clinton also recently said that if the Israeli Palestinian conflict were resolved that 50% of terrorism directed towards the U.S. would stop. Former head of the CIA Bin Laden unit Micheal Scheuer, Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern, Queen Noor, Former President Jimmy Carter and many more think that far more than 50% of the reasons announced for terrorism towards the U.S. and elsewhere would be eliminated

Bill Clinton
"”It will take about half the impetus in the whole world — not just the region, the whole world — for terror away,” he told an audience of Egyptian businessmen from the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt. “It would have more impact by far than anything else that could be done.”

 

LEEN

11:40 PM ET

November 15, 2010

Dennis Ross

How did Israel's lawyer Dennis Ross get that position?

 

LEEN

11:45 PM ET

November 15, 2010

Pull the rug out

"tend to agree that it is almost impossible for America's political body to objectively consider its relationship with Israel."

Especially when the rug would be pulled out from underneath you.

 

EW66

3:15 PM ET

November 16, 2010

Sly & Shameful

If Iran changed its policies/strategy in the Middle East, 90% of terrorism would be eliminated. It's laughable that these sly jokers excuse Iran's development and support of proxies + asymmetric warfare as defensive in nature. Actually, it's disgusting that they would put forth such a lie, especially in the context of the israeli/palestinian conflict. Iran is the impediment! Iran is the reason that, even if the US was able to broker a peace deal or if Palestinians were able to declare statehood (both of which I doubt), it would mean nothing! Iran may be rational, but the Iranian regime is more cynical and malicious than any government in the region.

 

OHREALLY

8:05 PM ET

November 20, 2010

Curious

I'd be curious as to why you believe an Arab country with a democratic government or one 'otherwise accountable to its people' would make a better ally than Israel.

Also, the difference between the China/Taiwan situation and the Israel/Arab situation is that with the first it's a question of which Chinese government is the legitimate one. Both China and Taiwan represent an exercise by the Chinese people of their right to self determination. On the other hand, the conflict between Israel and the Arabs is based on the denial by the Arabs of the Jewish right to self determintation. Mprepver, both China/PRC and China /ROC (aka Taiwan) have established a modus vivendi - there is a great deal of trade between the two (they recently signed a $100 billion trade pact) and Taiewanese investment in the PRC is well over $100 billion. Contrast this with total direct trade between Israel and the combined Arab world (including the WB/Gaza) of around $350 million as of 2008. Also note that there is no boycott of companies doing business with Taiwan as there is by the Arab countries of companies doing business with Israel.

In other words, you're comparing apples and oranges.

 

LEEN

11:31 PM ET

November 15, 2010

Voices of Reason

"That's so for three main reasons. First, Sadjadpour's reading of the drivers of Iranian foreign policy is profoundly at odds with the historical record of the Islamic Republic's actual conduct. Second, his policy prescriptions would keep the United States from acting in its own best interests to pursue a comprehensive realignment of U.S.-Iranian relations. Third, his policy prescriptions would lead ultimately to a U.S.-initiated military confrontation with Iran."

Am so thankful that we have some voices of reason focused on the situation with Iran. The warmongering thugs who lied this nation into Iraq have been setting the stage for a confrontation with Iran for quite some time .

Thank you Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett

Prof Cole has a great clip of Congressman Ron Paul addressing the situation with Iran and the push in congress by the I lobby for more sanctions

 

PIROUZ

11:56 PM ET

November 15, 2010

Sadjapour gets pwned

The strikethroughs in Kissinger's 70s commentary is really clever. Quite appropriate analogy, too.

I've always found it disappointing to read most Iranian-American analysts' skewed perspectives on the Islamic Republic of Iran. So many have demonstrated themselves so utterly unreliable for the past 30 years-plus.

Thanks for shedding the light of reason over this subject, Leverrets.

 

BAHRAMERAD

3:56 AM ET

November 16, 2010

clever conceit

...." Khamenei has approved multiple Iranian initiatives to reach out to the United States" ...
I have never heard such acts to be in the interests of either the Iranians nor the USA ... all it has ever been is to hoodwink both sides and buy time for sultan Khamenei to gain and keep more power and misuse the riches of Iran.

 

MARK BLUSH

7:03 AM ET

November 16, 2010

Well Written

A very well written article. I am amazed that so few people in the US political establishment seem to understand that this is really the only way forward.

 

HRIS

10:16 AM ET

November 16, 2010

invasion seems to be the only option

thats the only way to liberate the nation of Iran

 

DC106

10:32 AM ET

November 16, 2010

Oh brother

The bulk of the US and Israeli population have been brainwashed into believing Iran is a threat just like they were brainwashed – and still believe according to most polls – that Saddam Hussein had WMDs and was connected to Al Qaeda and 9/11.

Regardless of what the civilian population of the US believes, it has absolutely no control over what its government actually does. An election every couple of years which removes a handful of Congressional members and replaces them with new ones totally subservient to the same campaign contributors and Israel provides no means to actually enforce “democratic control” of the state.

Even if it did have such control, the US electorate is so unconcerned about the continued wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, due to the current economic conditions, that US threats to start another war in Iran seem to be completely off their radar. I can assure you that the average American really has NO accurate idea what is going on in terms of Iran. Given the total control of the mainstream media by the Israel Lobby and the military-industrial complex, there is absolutely no way the US electorate is going to be persuaded to take the kind of massive action it would require to force the US government to not pursue the course it is pursuing.

In other words, stay tuned for another disastrous war for the benefit of the American Corporatocracy.

 

BOBBI

4:58 PM ET

November 16, 2010

Iran's Power

Dn't be a fool. A war with Iran would be the end of the US as a superpower. We are already in deep trouble because of the two wars that we have lost or are losing.

The Leveretts are absolutely correct.

 

DC106

10:31 AM ET

November 16, 2010

Double standards & hypocrisy

The naked hypocrisy of the dual loyalists and neo-con chickenhawks regarding Iran is manifest.

What parallel universe do these people think we live in?

Which nation shows itself to be a responsible member of the community of nations:

A. A nation that is a signatory to the Non Proliferation Treaty, that has cooperated heretofore satisfactorily with the agency charged with establishing and carryin out the inspection protocols provided for by the treaty, the IAEA?
A nation that the IAEA has concluded is abiding by the protocols and not diverting nuclear materials for weapons grade enrichment. A nation whose supreme leader has stated that nuclear weapons violate the constitutional principles of the nation.

B. A nation that categorically refuses to become a signatory to the NPT, refuses to allow any international inspectors access to any of its nuclear facilities, yet whose government insists other members of the international community must abide by international laws to the letter, which it itself cynically refuses to submit to.

In a world of international law, universal principles of jurisprudence, logic and empirical facts, nation A would be the obvious choice.

In a world characterized by cynical political corruption, diplomatic duplicity, double standards, manifest hypocrisy and double standards, B is the choice.

 

FFBBFFGMAIL

12:25 PM ET

November 16, 2010

Well Written

yea, tend to agree that it is almost impossible for America's political body to objectively consider its relationship with Israel, thanks
ar condicionado

 

BIBIJON

1:05 PM ET

November 16, 2010

Mangled Analogies

With reference to http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=42545 where Dr afrasiabi demolishes the Soviet analogy, to my mind Flynt and Hillary have also demostrated the inadequacy of Mao's China analogy.

In fact the US of yesterday analogy to US of today is itself a Dorian Grey syndrome. Which then gets compounded by the false analogy of yesterday's inter-power rivalries which bear no resembelence to Today's state of world affairs.
Please, therefore, forget the analogies.

There are some facts on the ground which need to be addressed.
The more Iran is demonized, the more red carpet treatment Iran's officialdom get in the region and beyond. At the same time, what faded carpet is rolled out for the US, is rolled out increasingly nervously.

I contend the problem is not US' Iran policy. The problem is that Iran should not be the focus of any policy. Having the topic of Iran at the top of every summit's agenda is rediculous. And Justifying whatever posture towards Iran requires out of this earth exaggerations and falshoods which in turn clips US' policy wings in areas that actually matter.

 

PUBLICUS

1:11 PM ET

November 16, 2010

Continuity vs disruption

Iran has the advantage of continuity of its physical place, its society, culture, civilization for thousands of years. Israel has not had this natural and normal continuity which most peoples and more recently in history nations of the region have enjoyed (at least essentially).

Both states are theocratic republics which have parliamentary systems and structures. One nation has filters established by a dictatorial elite to control - indeed restrict - the choices of the electorate. Another nation hasn't any such same or similar filters and instead offers the long realized opportunity of persons of other regional tribal ethnicities to stand for election and, as the record shows, win.

Further, in one nation it is inconceivable that it should have a female prime minister while the other nation had realized this rarity when it was in fact a rarity.

One nation is not of the semite tribes, the other is - however, neither nation is a "gentile" nation (which outside of the region means nothing). One nation's religion is an afterthought and adapted version of the other's original religion; additionally, it is a variation of yet another religion that is an earlier offshoot of the original one. They all have the same god-father.

One nation is deeply and profoundly rooted in the past and consequently is reactionary, while the other is, stands for, represents and advocates the modern world and the future.

This presents us with a choice and I a priori know mine.

 

JKOLAK

2:32 PM ET

November 16, 2010

I can't believe you people

I can't believe you people still talk like Iran can be talked to reasonably.

We are the Great Satan to them, so they won't talk to us like we are normal people.

 

HRIS

3:00 PM ET

November 16, 2010

you are absolutely right

I would not put it better

 

BOBBI

5:06 PM ET

November 16, 2010

Good for the Leveretts

Iran has tried to speak reasonably many times. It's our government that has behaved foolishly after every opening and now that we are bleeding like hell in Afghanistan, we still act as if we can continue like this for a few more years.

 

PERSIAN GULF

4:58 PM ET

November 16, 2010

a perfect article

yet, another very good article by Leveretts.

I am surprised that people like Dr. Sajjadpour are taken serious in Washington after their last year's election guff. obvious, his is completely detached from the reality of today's Iran. if he ever was is questionable though. I am sure, if Karim goes to places other than northen Tehran, he won't be able to even communicate with the Iranian people (of course, he can always ask for directions!), and yet he likes to lecture about Iranians mindset as a whole.

 

GRANT

7:01 PM ET

November 16, 2010

While eventual normalization

While eventual normalization of relations is fine in my opinion, this article forgets so much about the circumstances that were present in the 60s and 70s to make it dubious at best. Nixon's anticommunist credentials were first class and detractors couldn't use the same arguments that they had against any Democrats who suggested such things. Both the U.S and China saw the U.S.S.R as more of a problem than each other and were willing to put aside mutual hatred to deal with the immediate threat. The groundwork for that culminated in Nixon's visit took place in very secretive meetings over the 60s before any hint of Nixon's visit was even suggested. Lastly, the recent American elections and the current political situation in Iran make it far more practical to think of such things in ten years time instead of today.

On another note, I find it hard to trust people who use analogies about events decades ago in a completely different situation to argue why a government should do something in the present.

 

LIZZ

12:57 AM ET

November 17, 2010

Obama is too Weak to Even Contemplate the Leveretts Proposal

What is really sad is that Obama never had the courage to bring about meaningful change. Folks in DC don't realize how difficult things are becoming throughout America and this policy of confrontation will lead us nowhere.

I've spent a significant amount of time in Iran and it's clear that the Iranians are willing to improve relations. However, they feel that they don't have a reliable partner in the US.

 

GRANT

2:36 AM ET

November 17, 2010

First question: What does

First question: What does that have to do with anything I just said?
Second question: Which Iranians? The ones currently in power? The ones who would probably be ripped apart in the current power struggle if it was thought they were too conciliatory to the West?

 

LIZZ

6:55 AM ET

November 17, 2010

Iranians Have said they are willing to change if the US Changes

That's not a problem. The Iranians have said repeatedly they are prepared to change their policies towards the US, if the US is willing to change. As you make clear, Obama, for whatever reason, has so far been a weak president. Therefore, either he must gain the courage to really engage Iran or the US must continue to bleed in the ME.

 

GRANT

12:38 PM ET

November 17, 2010

No, I said nothing of the

No, I said nothing of the sort concerning Obama. To quote myself "...the recent American elections...make it far more practical to think of such things in ten years time" which has nothing to do with the strengths or weaknesses of a president. If I really have to be more clear then how about this:

1. Nixon was a Republican who had already proven his dislike of Communism which made it difficult for opponents of warmer ties to China to attack Nixon. Obama in contrast is a Democrat whose brief foreign policy work focuses on multilateral action which Republicans have a tendency to attack.

2. China and the U.S both had a great dislike for the Soviet Union and a sense that the Soviet Union was more of a pressing threat than each other. In contrast Iran's greatest threats are probably Israel (which is backed by the U.S), Saudi Arabia (which is also backed by the U.S) and the U.S itself. Its other enemies in Iraq and Afghanistan were defeated, ironically enough, by the U.S which means that we don't have that much to get their help on.

3. Very secretive talks between the Chinese and Americans took place for years during the 60s and early 70s before Nixon went anywhere near China. In contrast Obama, if he were to do such a thing, would only have a matter of months.

4. The greater power of Republicans in the House and the Senate (especially far right Republicans who aren't willing to compromise) means that they would probably do their best to skewer any effort by Obama to be more friendly to Iran. On the Iranian side of things they appear to be going through a low level power struggle and the government seems to be increasingly dominated by hard liners.

The bottom line is A. I made no mention of Obama being weak B. now is not the best time for rapprochement and C. that it is a bad idea to compare events in the present to events in the past that had very different circumstances.

 

ROBERT D.

1:14 PM ET

November 17, 2010

Basically you are saying that Obama is unable to normalize ties

My understanding is that you are indeed saying Obama is no Nixon (which is probably true). Maybe a Republican like Nixon (without Watergate!) can move towards normalizing ties after 2012.

 

GRANT

3:39 PM ET

November 17, 2010

While I'm not crazy enough to

While I'm not crazy enough to predict elections I doubt it'll be a Republican in office in 2012 simply because most presidents have gotten two terms in office. Even if we did buck the trend and have a Republican in office they probably would be pushed by the strength of far-right elements to continue the relatively hard line that Bush and Obama have followed. That's why I'm thinking in terms of ten years or longer, we can't be optimistic about U.S-Iranian relations in the short term. Personally I would be delighted if the two states were less antagonistic but foreign policy shifts are notoriously hard to make.

 

AHSON HASAN

9:11 PM ET

November 16, 2010

Peace is all we need...

Jaw jaw is better than war war...

What makes human beings different from animals is the superiority of thought and action.

Iran is a bully of the first order. In fact, the mullahs are insane as hell. For more than 30 years now, they have managed not only terrorize the people of Iran domestically, they have tried to 'insult' humanity by turning each and every step toward reconciliation into a farce of the highest level.

Regardless of whatever has happened or is happening, one has complete faith in the negotiation and diplomatic skills of the world community. Iran's obnoxiousness can be blunted.

We need to keep pushing for a negotiated settlement and avoid the idea of a full-scale war.

 

DC106

5:28 PM ET

November 17, 2010

Hillarious

Iran is a bully? That's truly laughable.

If Syria (or Iraq, or Iran, or Somalia, or Panama, or Grenada, or Cuba....etc etc..) actually had the ability to retaliate we never would have attacked them - we are cowards, bullies that pick on the weak and terrorize anybody who refuses to follow our orders.

If Syria were to exterminate a US base in Iraq they would certainly be within their rights, but they know that the ignorant American electorate could be provoked into believing that the US had been 'attacked' and must 'defend' itself by nuking Damascus.

After all, the American electorate has already proved itself stupid enough to buy the line about Saddam being in cahoots with AlQaeda, they will believe anything their Nobel Peace fraud President tells them.

Its not hard to see why most people in the World see the US as the worst threat to World Peace, because it is.

 

AHMADA

11:35 PM ET

November 16, 2010

Is U.S.-Iran rapprochement possible?

I was under the impression that the U.S. is vehement toward Iran because of foreign lobbying.

Logically, it requires little effort to see that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons as a deterrence capability, to shield it from any potential Israeli or U.S. military attack. Similarly, the Middle East arms race argument predominantly pushed by Sec. Clinton, does not hold water historically. Pakistan and India is the only known case for a build up in arms. Also, Iran is a rational actor. Why? Because it has opted for renewed talks with the West. In addition, it will not nuke Israel for the sole purpose of its own existence being put into question once the nuclear smoke clears. Furthermore, Iran will not sponsor a proxy nuclear attack for the same reason.

If all this were true and the U.S. government knew it, could it be that foreign lobbying groups are the cause for this contrived hostility toward Iran? Is our devotion to foreign lobbying groups causing us to make decisions that are not in our interests in this case, or are there other factors at play here? I am interested to hear any responses to this.

 

LIZZ

12:49 AM ET

November 17, 2010

The Green Lobby Funded by the US Government

A somewhat new lobby is the unofficial Green Lobby, which consists of Iranians (and non-Iranians) funded by the US government directly or indirectly to bring about "regime change". They lobby to prevent the two countries from improving relations, because they will lose their enormous funding if that actually happens. This loose network of people includes so called Iranian American think tanks as well as members of the MEK terrorist organization who work under different names in the US.

Meanwhile, ordinary Americans face perpetual economic hardship.

 

OHREALLY

8:13 PM ET

November 20, 2010

Ahmada

The fact that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons probably puts it at far greater risk of an attack by the US or Israel than if it had not. Should Iran eventually acquire these weapons I would think that the risk would be even greater still.

As far as the renewal of talks with the West. Ahmedinejad has already gone on record as stating that Iran's nuclear program is not on the agenda for discussion.

The regime in Iran will talk to the West until the cows come home, but as they have stated numerous times, they have no interest in suspending, much less discontinuing, their nuclear weapons program.

 

MODERATEWINGER

12:57 AM ET

November 17, 2010

Sorry, but

I am not going to reward Iran unless it does the following.

1, Renounce terrorism
2, Submit to inspection
3, Halt their nuclear activities
4, Recognize Israel's right to exist
5, Defund Hezbollah

Since Iran remains a bellicose and inflexible country, I don't see why the US should play ball with their leaders.

 

LIZZ

1:18 AM ET

November 17, 2010

Sorry, but...

...you can wait forever and get nowhere as Asia replaces us and makes us a second rate player. The Iranians don't view Hezbollah as you do and they already have inspectors. They don't feel that they need our "rewards", rather they feel that they are the ones who have both home field advantage and control over the ball.

 

HRIS

6:42 AM ET

November 17, 2010

thats nonsense lizz

Iran needs to be sorted soon and if USA is too busy in Afghanistan it will probably be Russians that will do it.

 

BOBBI

9:59 AM ET

November 17, 2010

...and then there was China.

In addition, the more we push and shove Iran, the closer it moves to China. The Chinese are already establishing very strong relations with the country, despite much wishful thinking in the US. We need to improve relations with Iran for a host of reasons including the fact that strong Iran/Chinese relations are not in our interests.

 

OHREALLY

8:15 PM ET

November 20, 2010

Lizz

Iran might want to move closer with China, but I don't know that the Chinese feel the same. their oil imports from Iran have decreased by half over the last year.

 

WATTY

10:59 AM ET

November 17, 2010

US - Iran Reset Long Overdue

US sanction regime against Iran has not worked. US Iran rapprochement offers many immediate advantages not the least of which is in providing a secondary access route for the logistical support of ISAF mission in Afghanistan.

Iran's Chabahar port offers an attractive alternate to the trouble ridden access via Karachi, which Pakistan manipulates at will. The US potential to bypass Pakistan entirely will greatly enhance US capacity to prod Pakistan to finally eliminate all its militant and terrorist safe havens and finally eliminate the threat to ISAF troops and Afghan citizens.

Access to Afghanistan via Iran will use the existing Chabahar to Milak road connecting Zaranj to Delaram road in Afghanistan. US access to these strategic routes will also help secure western and central Afghanistan from Taliban encroachment. More significantly an US Iran rapprochement will advance the cause of peace and progress in the region.

 

ARCONDICIONADOFBF

2:19 PM ET

November 17, 2010

there was China

yea, the Iranians don't view Hezbollah as you do and they already have inspectors. They don't feel that they need our "rewards", rather they feel that they are the ones who have both home field advantage and control over the ball, thanks!
ar condicionado massagens acompanhantes

 

HUMANIST_2

6:50 PM ET

November 17, 2010

Are we living in TIMES of corruption, deception and lunacy?

I am thinking it is like we are living in a SURREAL world where a tiny super-powerful semi-psychotic characters are manipulating America (or the world) by successfully spreading Big LIES and pulling the strings to cause havoc on countless millions.

In recent times we have seen in America (where so many amazing inventions or discoveries were originated) a law being passed by the representatives of ordinary people to cut the tax of top 2% richest Americans. It is amazing to behold how the gross lie of the "benefits" of “supply side economics” or “trickle down economics” for the ALL the people was so easily shoved down the throat of the masses.

We have witnessed how the big lie of WMD in Iraq and other deceptive lies were so skilfully spread still so many believe in them, lies that caused raining of so much misery on millions of uninvolved people.

We see how the same unapologetic and remorseless liars such as the agents of Military Complex, Neocons, Israeli lobbyists or Israeli firsters are now repeating the same lies on Iran to pave the routes for achieving their sinister objectives. They are shamelessly trying to trick Americans spill more of their blood and expend more of their ever-decreasing treasures. Some conscientious Americans analysts see this clearly. On the subject of Israel, Gareth Porter discloses the real goal of Israeli “Bomb Iran Campaign” in the following enlightening article.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=20397

Now analysts know why these organized groups who, in full coordination with each other and their media, fabricate and spread those lies and then manage to cause horrendous crimes towards Americans and others are not arrested and tried in courts of justice. They also know why instead, they have remained as influential as before and still keep on designing new demonic plots to increase their power and wealth by more tricks, more wars and so on

For them,Tricks, Deception and Corruption are powerful tools that makes all that possible.

The CRITICAL PERIL of activities of this group of psychotic entities is: by hegemony, militarization, spread of corruption, instigation of wars and so on they are annihilating the voices of reason. Under the present world-wide political atmosphere the suggestion of any “international treaty for establishment of just world” sounds impractical, imprudent or ridiculous Nearly ALL the people of the world desire international treaties for “No Wars or Drastic Reductions in all Military spending”, or “Establishment of a real International Court to try the War Criminals” etc but instead the dynamics is pointing to the opposite direction ie to the wants of a few Warmongering Neocons. This impracticality of instigation of efforts to build a Better world in mainly because of the heinous Actions of those maniacal powerful entities .

This is like a story described in an imaginary science fiction, aliens coming from outer space, corrupting the humanity in order to destroy all beautiful things and eventually all forms of life on earth.

If you have read this post so far then you might like reading the following:

1- From Ismael Hossain zadeh On the Militarization of the world and Iran
http://www.payvand.com/news/10/nov/1156.html

2- From Kaveh Af Afrasiabi On Iran: Cold War Analogies Misued ( addressing Sadjadpour)
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?

Finally:

In my previous comment here on FP on the Sadjadpour’s article which is the subject of this post I wrote:

“If he is really against the war why (instead of zig-zagging) he doesn’t directly attack the real culprits (who pull the strings) similar to what Hosseinzadeh or Afrasiabi are doing and why he doesn’t understand that ‘China route’ is not perfect and it can never work the way it did with China, but among other terrible options is the only one which is worth advocating.

Admittedly its chance of realization is very low but it has the advantage of:

1- It is rational, optimal and is truly beneficial to both sides.
2- In the process of arguing its advantages it can very effectively exposes the maniacal elements who are dangerous not to their enemies but more so to themselves”

I forgot to add the most important one:

3- .There will be no war, no bloodshed no destruction and no suffering of our fellow human beings.

 

CANKATX2

8:19 PM ET

November 18, 2010

Are we living in TIMES of corruption

America's best interests. I am sure we tatil will be able to sanction Iran into internal regime change in just a few (30 is obviously not enough) more years, kosmodisk and the local citizens will throw off the oppressive bands of their ancient faith and embrace the joys of secular tv shop American democracy.

 

OHREALLY

7:34 PM ET

November 20, 2010

One problem that Leverett

One problem that Leverett ignores in his argument is the fact that our current relationship with China is more a product of the failure of Mao's widow to gain power after his death than Nixon's China policy. It was regime change that nade the difference then and probably regime change that will make the difference in our relationship with Iran now,