The False START Debate

The critics and the boosters are both wrong: Obama's nuke treaty with Russia is a huge nothingburger. But Republicans should vote to ratify it anyway.

BY JAMIE M. FLY | NOVEMBER 24, 2010

Setting aside the limited nature of the actual cuts, conservative critics have raised some valid concerns about New START. Early statements from the Obama administration and Russian officials on the relevance of missile defense to New START were contradictory and confusing. The Kremlin issued a statement implying that further U.S. development of its missile defense systems "quantitatively or qualitatively" would be grounds for Russian withdrawal from the treaty. But the ratification resolution approved by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and subsequent statements by administration officials make clear that New START does not limit America's ability to deploy a robust missile defense system. Other important questions about possible limitations on U.S. plans to develop a conventional prompt global strike capability, which will be all the more important as the United States reduces its nuclear arsenal, also are addressed by the ratification resolution.

New START has been the centerpiece of the president's much vaunted "reset" with Russia. Now that the administration has overplayed its hand by making promises to the Russians about a ratification timeline that it cannot keep, it has undermined its credibility with Moscow. Republicans should rightly criticize the administration's willingness to forgo serious criticism of Russia's abysmal human rights record, its increased stifling of freedom of expression, and its continued occupation of Georgia (a future NATO ally), but in time, the "reset" will collapse whether or not New START is ratified.

There remains serious criticism of New START's merits on the right, and it is troubling that the administration is attempting to argue that Republicans such as Sen. Jon Kyl are interested only in killing the treaty. Kyl and a majority of his colleagues are just asking for more time to explore their concerns about the treaty and continue discussions with administration officials about funding levels for modernization of the U.S. nuclear stockpile.

From the rhetoric of the administration and its surrogates, one would believe that if New START is not ratified by the end of the year, nuclear weapons will suddenly fall into the hands of terrorists. Last week, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry warned that a failure to ratify the treaty would mean that U.S. inspectors would continue to be unable to confirm the safety of Russia's nuclear stockpile, resulting in "no American boots on the ground in Russia able to protect American interests."

Kerry is correct to say that since the 1994 START agreement expired in December 2009, START inspections of Russian and U.S. nuclear sites have not occurred. But ironically, New START, unlike the agreement it replaces, would not have U.S. monitors at Russia's mobile missile-production facility at Votkinsk. If this was an overwhelming concern, the Obama administration and Russia could have agreed to continue inspections without a new treaty.

DMITRY ASTAKHOV/AFP/Getty Images

 

Jamie M. Fly is executive director of the Foreign Policy Initiative.

JACK LE BOUL

4:16 PM ET

November 25, 2010

Reading the argument from Mr.

Reading the argument from Mr. Fly I could not but help to consider if President Bush or Reagan made this treaty, how would the argument go....

- What a great treaty!

- This will strengthen our national security as our conventional weapons are much stronger than russians. (i.e. we only fear their nukes)

- Republican are sooooo much better than Democrats on defense matters.

- I hope (the Democrat) congress does not screw this up by playing politics. This is a national security matter and our President can not look weak.

One can and should argue that this treaty is not as good as it should be...however, bringing in human rights and such to a debate over nukes is out of place and belongs somewhere else. (like economic treaties)

Sen. Jon Kyl is very interested in killing this treaty for political reasons, rather than his willingness to "due diligence". Many others, can have have done this better than him. (DOD, State Dep. etc)

Ultimately, this argument that Mr. Fly laid out would never be accepted if the treaty would have been agreed by a Rep. President.

 

JACKSON50

10:02 PM ET

November 25, 2010

Lacking

I find the argument for justifying obstruction lacking. Each concern has either been refuted or allayed: it does not impede missile defense; the rail-mobile and strategic-bomber ICBM loopholes were fallacious; President Obama committed over $80 billion to nuclear modernization and maintenance.

No, the Senate has performed its due diligence. Republican opposition has mutated from advice and consent to conspicuous partisan intransigence. It is evident that Republicans are stalling for political reasons.

 

GENNY

5:46 PM ET

November 26, 2010

Too much incoherence in the treaty. Not good for both parties

The core of the treaty are rare occasional inspections which should inspect only specific not-under-cover external parts of special showcase deployed heavy bombers.

Inspectors are now, and will be able in the future (if the treaty will be ratified in its present wording) to check only those deployed heavy bombers, which will be delivered for inspection.
For the inspection a special right for access should be granted, and any party to the treaty may refuse to grant such right to another party.

Failure to approve this comic procedure will cause international catastrophe, according to the START supporters.

Also, there is a linguistic incoherence: The US version of START says about visual check of functional and external properties that are observable by national technical means of verification, while Russian version of Inspections protocol says about only gazing at not-under-cover external properties, without functional check.

What matters is which cost is more important, that of high profile tourism, nuclear proliferation under the pretext of reduction, remedying the nearest future nuclear threats from third now non-nuclear countries, or the cost of maintaining own sufficient level of safety.

 

MRODBAN

12:08 AM ET

December 18, 2010

Further Analysis

See "New START, Old War" at http://thecosmopolitanintellectual.wordpress.com/