China Help with North Korea? Fuggedaboutit!

Dear pundits: Stop begging Beijing to rein in Kim Jong Il. It ain’t gonna happen.

BY AIDAN FOSTER-CARTER | NOVEMBER 26, 2010

Some years ago, much to my surprise, I persuaded FP's then editor Moises Naim to drop the expression "Fuggedaboutit!" from these august columns. Chirpy is one thing, vulgar another.

It was kind of Venezuela's former trade minister to heed the sensitivities of a Brit subscriber. But now I repent me. For nothing less emphatic will do to express my profound dissent from one dominant trope in the endless, circular discourse on North Korea, lately amplified by commentators and policymakers who should know better.

You know the tune, so sing along. It goes like this: Call Beijing! Only the Chinese have influence in and on Pyongyang. (They deny it, but we know they're kidding.) Call yourself a responsible global leader, Comrade Hu? Then rally round, and do your bit. Kim Jong Il and his nukes are as much a threat to you as to the rest of us. And now he's shelling South Korean civilians! So join us in condemning him, and for God's sake rein the rogue in. Or words to that effect.

Thus Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, to CNN this week: "I believe that it's really important that Beijing lead here.... I've believed for some time that probably the country that can influence North Korea the most is clearly China ... [North Korea] destabilizes the region, and China has as much to lose as anybody in that region with the continuation of this kind of behavior and what the potential might be."

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley echoed this sentiment: "China is pivotal to moving North Korea in a fundamentally different direction ...We would hope and expect that China would use that influence, first, to reduce tensions that have arisen from North Korean provocations and then, secondly, [to] continue to encourage North Korea to take affirmative steps to denuclearize."

Hope all you want, P.J. It ain't gonna happen, at least not the way you put it. Sure, Beijing makes vague noises. "We are ready to make joint efforts," the Foreign Ministry said recently.

But China barely talks the talk, and no way does it walk the walk. Has Washington missed the new lovefest between Pyongyang and Beijing? A friendship forged in blood, as close as lips and teeth. The old slogans and warmth are back. And it's for real. Better believe it.

We saw it first this summer. Not only did China's skepticism on the sinking of the Cheonan, the South Korean corvette, let North Korea off the hook, but its hostility to U.S.-South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea -- Chinese coastal waters, apparently -- sent the allies scurrying ignominiously to hold their maneuvers on the other side of the peninsula.

(Not this time. As I write the aircraft carrier USS George Washington and its battle group are steaming toward the Yellow Sea, after North Korea's latest provocation: Tuesday's fatal and unprovoked thermobaric shelling of civilians on Yeonpyeong Island, in the same waters. Thus far Beijing has not reacted so fiercely again, recognizing perhaps that the United States and South Korea have got to make some show of force -- and a show is better than the real thing.)

STR/AFP/Getty Images

 

Aidan Foster-Carter is honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University and a writer, consultant, and broadcaster on North Korea, which he has followed for 40 years.

MARTY MARTEL

3:26 PM ET

November 26, 2010

US has to see that six party talks are a mirage

It is not enough that US should forget about China helping against North Korean blackmail, US has to wake up to the fact that China is the main culprit behind North Korean blackmail.

North Koreans do not have geniuses who can invent nuclear triggers or ballistic missile technology or plutonium reprocessing. Chinese government companies are providing those things to North Korea. If it were not for China, North Korea would have NO nuclear program or ballistic missiles. Even Pakistan would not have dared to supply uranium enrichment technology to North Korea if Pakistan’s all-weather friend China would have strongly objected.

US has to accept the fact that North Korea’s lifeline passes through Beijing and that North Korea dances to the tune of puppeteer China.

North Korean refugees flooding China if Kim’s regime collapses is a poppy cock story that only naïve US will buy. PLA of China is strong enough and Chinese economy is more than healthy to be able to absorb any shock from such North Korean refugees. North Koreans are fleeing to China under current dire economic conditions at home anyway.

So US has to stop the illusion that six party talks are ever going to lead to denuclearization of Korean peninsula. China is just stringing US along on this mirage.

 

PUBLICUS

3:06 PM ET

November 27, 2010

Hand in hand

Agreed that the six-party talks are dead in the water and taking on water. While the six-party talks were useful during the Bush years, which were occupied by Iraq, Afghanistan and creating a new framework of homeland security against terrorists, the talks are of little use to the present world of Pres Barack Obama, SKorea, Japan or Russia.

There are only two of the six parties pushing for a resumption of talks: Beijing and Pyongyang. Each in their hard and unrelenting push to resume the moribund talks, also are as militarily integrated as are the US-ROK armed forces. In other words, due to the ornery and hand in hand nature of Beijing-Pyongyang, the four prime movers of the six-party talks - the US, ROK, Japan, Russia have decided the extant situation and its exigencies have necessitated the carrot being removed from the stick.

Consider also that Beijing fears that North Korea is its East Germany. The CPC/PRC elites know that after East Germany collapsed the Soviet Union collapsed. True there isn't any Gorbachev in Beijing, but as in the Soviet Union and its Eastern European satellites, there always are the many people within to include China who need to get out from under the fascist communist jackboot pressing down against their throats.

Beijing in regard to NKorea already has exercised its habitual pattern used in many instances elsewhere to claim that the land area we know as North Korea has always historically been a part of China and its dynastic rulers. As noted in the article, Beijing fears a unified South Korea with Seoul as its capital and the US as its principal ally and defender. Indeed, a Korean peninsula unified under Seoul would place US military forces at the border of China, the exact development which caused the entry of the PRC into the Korean Conflict (1950-53) as PRC dogma is that the presence of US military forces at its borders (anywhere) is absolutely unacceptable and the first and foremost reason to go to war.

Given the asserted claim of Beijing that NKorea historically is part of its territory - a familiar specious claim and pattern of assertions as in the South China Sea, Tibet, the Pradesh state of India which borders the PRC at Tibet and in many other instances - I agree with the author that Seoul might welcome handing the burden of owning and having to develop NKorea to the PRC. I myself would welcome the annexation, the incorporation of the DPRK into the PRC. SKoreans for a while would dutifully wail and object, but they themselves and Japan among other neighboring countries ultimately would delight in the evaporation of the DPRK and in seeking the loose deck chairs of the Kim dynasty be stacked up in a corner of a difficult to find room of an enormous building called China.

Indeed, from the beginning of the unification of E and W Germany into one, Seoul has gone to Germany on a regular basis to examine, analyze and study the nature of the unification and its challenges. The SKoreans have found that which the Germans quickly and well experienced, i.e., that even for the rich and wealthy W Germany the unification incorporating E Germany was and remains expensive in the extreme, costing many bucks and requiring profound social and cultural adjustments - a phenomenon seen keenly in SKorea among those NKorean refugees who have escaped the primitive North to the sophisticated fast paced modern culture, economy and democratic society of the South.

Yes, in short Beijing and Pyongyang are in this together. The four major participants in the six-party talks have seen the Beijing-Pyongyang axis separate themselves so severely from the original purposes and intents of the negotiating group that the concept and effort has lost its efficacy. The result is that Beijing and Pyongyang are self isolated, putting themselves hanging out to dry, perhaps even to twist in the wind.

 

PUBLICUS

5:56 PM ET

November 30, 2010

Not in my neighborhood

It is ever more clear that no country wants the DPRK.

Seoul knows from its continuing visits to Germany and its first hand observations and analysis of German unification that the costs to the rich W Germany, economic, social and cultural are very great -- too great for Seoul willingly to bear.

So now Beijing, knowing the fact, claims it would accept the unification of the two Koreas under Seoul, which unlike the frank societal and nonpublic discussion in S Korea of averting unification, is loud and bogus PR from Beijing -- both N Korea and S Korea know this as do Japan the United States and Russia.

The cheap talk of Beijing accepting a unified Korea under the control of Seoul comes from dreamy sources in S Korea. No one in Beijing is quoted or cited as making these or any such statements. Indeed, Beijing is now trying to 'smoke out' Seoul to say that which for a long time Seoul and the vast majority of the S Korean people say under the voice of public discourse, i.e., that S Koreans do not want unification until or unless N Korea is brought up to some decent and respectable standard of living, quality of life that would take the very hard edge of unification off S Korea. In other words, never.

 

ANGRY GAMER

10:27 PM ET

November 27, 2010

Great article but.... what now?

Ok so we assume that because there is great lov'in going on between China and N Korea. We should just sit tight daddy China will make sure that the kid is sent to reform school.

I just don't buy it. There are two ways to look at China and N. Korea and after the Corvette sinking there is no middle ground.

1) China either has power over N. Korea and is tacitly agreeing to these attacks.
OR
2) China has a lot less power over N. Korea than previously thought and can't tell them STOP without the lack of influence becoming obvious.

Option 1 is a no go here because if China IS doing this then the world needs re-think EVERYTHING.

However, Option 2 is very intriguing... perhaps NK wants to blackmail China through a new route. If NK causes greater US naval activity in the Yellow Sea... Then NK IS more valuable because of what it DOES NOT do. Therefore, maybe China is the true target of this game and US and S. Korea are merely pawns.

BUT... wait.... what if NK in it's blackmail REALLY DOES spark a war? If NK keeps with the killing... it is only a matter of time before the South does something unilaterally.

 

HITOMI

11:12 PM ET

November 27, 2010

I find fault with your first assumption

Option 1 is not a no-go. We may, in fact, have to re-evaluate EVERYTHING. You don't think the North Koreans built that massive, shiny-new nuclear processing plant by themselves, do you?

We shouldn't simply avoid the obvious because the problems it creates appear most challenging to resolve.

 

PUBLICUS

9:55 AM ET

November 28, 2010

Re-evaluate everything

Agreed, and the only people who would need to re-evaluate everything are those who for whatever reason always have shortsightedly seen the DPRK as a de facto sovereign state, actually separate from the PRC. Pyongyang never has been disconnected or unattached from Beijing but, rather, is and always has been an extension of Beijing.

Beijing called on Pakisitan to provide nuclear development to Pyongyang, Russia also up to a point, Iran (where Russia is constructing their nuclear facility) and Beijing itself.

The present Korean crisis is jointly manufactured in Beijing and Pyongyang because both want further attention from the US, EU and the UN. The PRC is the Godfather here, Pyongyang the eager and wholly dependent son. The next son in line is a twenty-something bouncing baby boy civilian who overnight became a 4-star general. That parallels the promotion earlier this year of Mao's grandson as the youngest general in PLA history. Two peas in a pod, the DPRK Workers Party and the PRC Chinese Communist Party.

It's the same old Beijing-Pyongyang pattern of raise hell, scare everyone to the surrender table, get more fuel, more food to feed the elites and the army with the proceeds. The population continues to die. Explode a nuclear bomb, demand that everyone flock again to the surrender table, enjoy the proceeds. This repeat and stir, as the article above cites, is not a secret recipe. It is the standard porridge of politics by brinkmanship by Beijing-Pyongyang.

The more Washington and others pressure Beijing about the fixed RMB exhange rate, the more the quantitative easing etc, the more suddenly and now the bombs come down on South Korea. Beijing in fact has now established as the norm its aggressiveness towards its neighbors, from Japan down around through the South China Sea (the Southeast Asia Sea) to its borders with India at Beijing occupied Tibet.

The US now needs to base some naval vessels at Inchon at the Yellow Sea.

 

HITOMI

10:28 AM ET

November 28, 2010

The PRC's genetic link with North Korea is actually 2-fold

The first aspect stems from the PLA's immoderate obsession with Taiwan. The PLA clings to its Korean War myths for self-aggrandizing purposes, and they regard the unfinished business of the Korean War as the take-over of Taiwan. Needless to say, they see nothing wrong with holding an entirely innocent people (i.e. the Koreans) captive in their pursuit; they will not allow a Korean detente or resolution prior to Taiwanese "reunification". The sad fact is the Chinese people stammer all day about "foreign interference" in their internal affairs, but the PLA has gone on record noting the relationship between Taiwan and handling North Korea. The Chinese affliction of "voluntary" lack of self-reflection continues.

The second aspect is actually far more insidious, if that is possible. North Korea essentially exists to do all the things the PLA would like to do but doesn't want the blame for. Nuking an American base in Japan? That's alright with the PRC--as long as they aren't directly accused. Selling nuclear weapons technology? Again, quite ok with the PRC--provided the US has to spend massive amounts to avert catastrophe at home--or in India. China doesn't think the deaths of innocents matter in its resentful play for primacy.

 

RKERG

1:15 PM ET

November 28, 2010

Stability, Peace, and Lets be frank

The current Chinese government are a thuggish authoritarian bunch and the N Korean self styled royal family are an even more thuggish and authoritarian bunch, so a closeness is not a surprise to me.

When dealing with either of them it is important to remind yourself what it is that neither of them would do to America if either of them thought that they could get away with it and let that be our guide for dealing with them.

 

JINUSUNUMIU

3:12 PM ET

November 28, 2010

The U.S. Competition with China

Does China have 29,000 troops in Korea? Does China have airforce and naval bases in Korean peninsula? Yet, China has been influential, and who has consistently assisted that influential role playing in Korea matters? I believe the U.S. and its lack of consistent foreign policy has earned the current situation.

I cannot comprehend the tone of this article. Who really gains anything if DPRK disappears? Regime collapse - we have seen from Germany's example, costs human lives.

This article is a typical American attitude that a lot of foreigners hate about... So, cynically righteous in its own right, it ignores all other aspects of human affairs.

Military drills of the U.S. & SK troops only enhance the military tension. The problem is deeply rooted in the continued state of division and state of war in Korea. The 60-year old war has to end for people in Korea. Put people's lives first. The U.S.'s role could have been and still can be important in bringing and facilitating true peace. The U.S. has technical and military resources to make sure that there would be no war; no unneccessary tension. Why not use it for the right cause?

The U.S. government is spending billions of dollars out abroad, repeatedly, with the same result - escalation of military tension and reluctant diplomatic action. Yes, it is becoming habitual, and everyone is now expecting it. Violence brings more violence and military action brings more military action. The time is up calling for peace in the East Asia - the U.S. should consider China's call for emergency meeting. As a Korean American, I am deeply concerned about the situation in Korea which is dangerously close... to war.

Which makes me doubt. Who is gaining from this escalation of military tension? Why have there been so many similar situations? Does the U.S. really want to resolve Korea matters? Or the U.S. really wants to maintain this tension? I now have my answer.

I believe it's not too late to stop the US-SK war exercises. We need to find a peaceful resolution through dialogue and finally end the Korean War with a peace treaty. That may not be profitable for some folks, but it would be truly beneficial to all Koreans including the ever-worried South Korean people.

 

PUBLICUS

4:23 PM ET

November 29, 2010

Everyone gains

Everyone gains if the CCP/PRC annexes or incorporates the DPRK into it.

One, everyone gains because the isolated inbred, inborn, ingrown and ignorant NKoreans of Pyongyang essentially disappear into China.

Everyone gains because the CCP/PRC can't hide behind the supposedly wild and crazy antics of Pyongyang which in fact are the calculated geostrategic aims and purposes of Beijing using Pyongyang.

Everyone gains because South Koreans finally have the heavy weight of the North lifted from over their heads on a daily basis over the past 60 years. Give the problem of bringing NKorea into the 20th century to Beijing instead of Seoul. Seoul has studied and analyzed closely the great cost to the wealthy former West Germany that it has incurred in the absorption of East Germany into a unified Germany, and the SKoreans consequently are more than apprehensive about the economic and social costs of their own unification.

Everyone gains because the Korean peninsula immediately and finally becomes stable and predicable.

Everyone gains because the PRC/CCP finally accepts the presence of US troops at its new border with the ROK because the PRC willingly would incorporate the DPRK into it.

No brainer.

 

XTIANGODLOKI

5:20 PM ET

November 29, 2010

Spot on!

"I cannot comprehend the tone of this article. Who really gains anything if DPRK disappears? Regime collapse - we have seen from Germany's example, costs human lives. "

Great point! Most Americans believe in silver bullets, easy solutions, while disregarding the costs (especially if they are not personally affected). In reality there are no easy solutions to anything when it comes to running nations. All changes have costs associated. Many people used to write about Iraq as if all problems will be solved if Saddam is suddenly removed from power and democracy is installed by force. If there is anything which we can learn from Iraq it is that getting rid of the dictator at the top doesn't necessarily do anyone any good (other than war profiteers) and that political system is not something which foreign influences can easily insist on. Though Americans like to complain about the cost of Iraq war, it's the Iraqis who paid a far heavier price for the "change" which many of them didn't even want.

On the issue of North Korea, I have rarely hear anything from actual Koreans and their thoughts on this matter. The reality is that many S.Koreans have relatives in the North, especially those from the boomer generation. I would think they are likely very disappointed at both the craziness of North Korea's dictator as well as the Western media's moral high horse.

 

NICOLAS19

4:47 AM ET

November 29, 2010

think rationally

If you were China, constantly harassed by foreign military drills at your shores, had a nuclear ally at hand to piss them off, would you turn your back on it? Especially as North Korea is sitting pretty as a solid buffer between China and the South full of US bases. Of course not. China is acting perfectly rationally.

"Kim Jong Il and his nukes are as much a threat to you as to the rest of us" false, North Korea would never nuke its main sponsor. Just as Israel would never nuke the US. Time has long passed when China could be pushed around with idiotic phrases like that as they are no longer a colony.

The era of unilateralism is over. US has to start blending in the international community. If it wants to have something done, it is no longer enough to blow the whistle for the vassals (well, except the UK). If something is not in other countries' best interests, they won't do it. End of story, quit your whining.

 

PUBLICUS

1:29 PM ET

November 29, 2010

If I were China

If I were China I'd be a 5000 year old absolute dictatorship which more recently has become a 60-something year young new dynasty of reactionary authoritarian rulers who in the Age of IT and mass media censor, manipulate and control the minds of the population.

Most of the Chinese under the CCP/PRC are sheeple. A minority of Chinese are people who to their great credit have some brainpower remaining despite the CCP systematically spending the first 20 years on the lives of their citizens trying to leave them with less brains than they were born with.

The CCP hoards the money whilst sending some trickle down (the leg) to a third of its population that is concentrated in the geographic, crescent shaped development curve of the CCP, i.e., from Beijing east to Shanghai south thru to Guangdong province to the SARs of Hong Kong and Macao. Throw in a smattering of development in provinces such as Hubei, Hunan and Sichuan and you have almost all of the GDP of the People's republic. Indeed, in economics Guangdong province adjacent to Hong Kong and Macao is to Beijing as California is to the United States, i.e., a BIG and significant economy.

Yes, if I were the PRC/CCP I'd want to destroy democracy, liberty and prosperity wherever in the world it has reared its ugly head during the past 250 years. After all, if I were of the 5000 year old Jung Gwo, I'd know with absolute certainty that democracy is but a recent interruption, a temporary disturbance to the 5000 years old authoritarian dictatorship of the Jung Gwo and its oligarchy, autocracy and exclusive rule of the chosen elites. I'd know that democracy and justice are a passing historical disturbance and disruption which, like the nail that stands out, needs to be banged down and out of sight.

So if I were China I'd start building a big and high tech military machine, especially in orbital space, cyberspace and on the seas. And I wouldn't be building it for show (as with North Korea).

That's what if.

 

J762

1:56 PM ET

November 29, 2010

what is China supposed to do, exactly?

China has consistently stated that it wants stability, nonviolence, and a nuclear-free zone in the Korean Peninsula. These are its requirements. North Korea sees no problem in ignoring them. There is little reason to believe that China has the control over the North Korean regime that so many people allege that it does.

China is compelled to prop up the DPRK regime because it fears the catastrophic consequences of its collapse; the emergence of a US ally on its border and a flood of millions of refugees which it cannot handle.

Everybody's in a negative-sum situation here. China included

 

HITOMI

2:14 PM ET

November 29, 2010

Nicolas retrousse--your rationality could use some work

US naval ships welcomed amongst China's neighbors do not constitute a "harassment" of China. Nor do US naval ships or surveillance planes in international waters and airspace. Unfortunately, such a claim could only come from highly adept pussies and whiners, i.e. the Chinese government, while it duplicitously speaks of "allowing countries to do what is in their own best interests". It is in the best interest of South Korea to tell China to stop interfering in its country's affairs, to force China to stop encouraging menace from the North. It is in the best interests of the US to force China to stop acting irresponsibly in East Asia. It is in the best interests of Taiwan to quietly follow North Korea's path and go nuclear. It is in the best interests of the US to try to prevent this, which the US has done. And still is doing. For now.

China has gained the still-backwards-but-improved position it has today in international relations largely because it has abused a system of trade and international laws to its own advantage. Japan did much the same thing by harnessing the power of the state in its economic mode during the 1970sl. In both cases their growth (and the world's, for that matter) would have been halted if other countries had simply played the game the way they did. China has not in the past 50 years been treated to the same callous and aggressive tactics it has employed--neither economically nor militarily. That will soon change. And the weak, relatively privileged generations a wealthier China has produced will buckle under psychological strains of realpolitik. Just look at the fenqing over-reaction to everything: the poor bastards don't have a chance. China's growing sense of "just deserts" is directly proportional to the amount of outrage you see amongst its citizens, and inversely proportional to its own stability. In other words, the more China thinks it deserves, the more emotional and febrile and adolescent China is going to become, and the increasingly reckless and isolated it will appear. All this, tragically, despite the fact that China has not been threatened by any nation, apart from the USSR for a brief period, since it illegally and idiotically entered the Korean War 60 years ago (yes, you will note CIA involvement in Tibet followed that). Despite the fact that China has been aided by international organizations and businesses more than any other nation in history.

Truly the Chinese people are making their own enemies as hideously as any people in the world can, and this all due to their own twisted ethnic resentment. Rationality will not prevail. Rationality is a PRC strength to the same degree that logic is a Chinese one: in other words, not at all.

Oh, and a better definition of harassment would be asking the Chinese to sing when you know it will only come out as a whine and squeal. It's something of a tradition, you see.

 

XTIANGODLOKI

5:57 PM ET

November 29, 2010

Some valid points here actually

Though you can't shake the feeling that this Hitomi person, my guess is some Taiwanese who have a weird Japo-fetish, places way too much of her logic on wishful thinking; this seem to be a norm of the sinophobes/china-bashers, to pray for China's fall and then laugh about it. A typical loser's mentality.

To claim that China is getting more "isolated" is naive if not silly. The US didn't not simply waltz into Asia with everyone happily bowing down to its influence. It did so by kicking japan's ass in WWII and then installing military bases all over. Instead of going through the military route China is going the econ route in order to exert influence. Today China has better trading relationships with it's Asian neighbors than ever. Without China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and most of the Asian tigers' economy would be in the dumps. For Asia's export nations, the US market is already saturated, while the Chinese market has proven to be lucrative. Sure, you hear stories about Japanese companies pulling out of China and Taiwanese government's sad attempt at trying to get its industries move to SE Asia rather than China. Needless to say these efforts ended in failures. The reality is that without China all of its neighbors will fail miserably because politicians all over are relying on China's growth to lower their own unemployment rates. This is why China is a big deal. This is also why India maybe the next big deal. China's relationship with its neighbors is a lot like China's relationship with the US. They are all dependent on each other.

On the topic of ethnic resentment, this Hitomi person's own vile hatred towards Chinese is rather telling especially in her last two paragraphs. It's ironic to see her complaining about Chinese people's resentment towards "foreigners" when even the china bashers can probably agree that she is easily the biggest hater and bigot on this message board.

 

PUBLICUS

6:42 AM ET

November 30, 2010

The issues please

China and North Korea are the focus here. Trying to shift the focus to those who post is a wast of time and effort which also evades the issues that are the locus of the thread. So spare us the rat psychology.

During the past decade especially China has increased its presence and influence thereby drawing greater attention to itself. Any country that thinks of itself as the Grand Master of the Universe is setting itself up to take a steady barrage of hits and from all directions. Get used to it, especially when you keep leading with your jaw. It seems that onions have a thicker skin than the Jung Gwo whose greatest weakness is not that you bite back, but that you immediately have to chomp off the heads of any and all critics

If you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen.

 

ITONLYSTANDSTOREASON

5:31 PM ET

November 29, 2010

When it's OK to fuggedaboutit

FOSTER-CARTER's argument is that China has decided what its national interests are, vis-a-vis the Koreas, and will pursue them - so there's little point in appealing to Beijing to rein in its provocatively violent regime.

But what , according to Foster-Carter, does China intend to do about North Korea? Push them into a market economy and rein in their provocative violence.

Well! No one ever thought there was much hope of getting China to ignore their national interests to help us out with a little neighborhood spat. But when their treatment produces the cure that we want anyway, what's to worry?

 

SCOOP

1:51 PM ET

December 9, 2010

China's Clouded Lens

Washington Post, December 8, 2010, by David Ignatius
"The paradox of a rising China - a country that wants to play a bigger role in global affairs but suffers from a combination of lethargy and stage fright - was on display here at a conference with Chinese officials. Officials didn't disagree that North Korea and the imbalances in the global economy were big problems. But their recommendations focused on discussion rather than action - to the point that harmonious talk seemed an end in itself. Several Chinese officials who attended the not-for-attribution meeting explained that China is wary about foreign policy in part because officials are focused instead on maintaining domestic economic growth and keeping a potentially restless public happy."

 

PUBLICUS

4:20 PM ET

December 9, 2010

CCP self interest and preservation

Beijing isn't much interested in foreign policy because it must focus on keeping its domestic population under its control, an increasingly challenging task. The "public security" budget, in actuality the public surpression and repression budget has increased enormously since 2008.

However, the low profile and docile Pres/Chairman Hu Jintao, hand picked by Dung [sic] Xiao Peng to quietly implement Dung's policy of a low profile and quiet rise in the economy and military, is responding to increasing contemporary pressures by CCP militant rank and file to begin asserting China's 'rightful' place as the Middle Kingdom. The first step of the CCP militants high and low in the PRC is to regain territories the Jung Gwo always have believed to be their tributary lands, islands, islets, to include the India province on Arunanchai Pradesh at the India-PRC border.

The new campaign by Beijing to regain 'lost' territories also distracts from the rapidly deteriorating domestic economy which is suffering stark inflation, the inability of the majority to purchase affordable housing despite all of the residential property construction of the past decade, and a glutted labor market.

Hu is being bossed by the Central Military Committee and the CCP Central Committee which accurately reflect the new militancy of the CP rank and file throughout the PRC. Hu's 2013 successor Vice President Xi Jinping will be in the exact same situation when he assumes office.

So look for a continued bossy and aggressive PRC indefinitely, which is not encouraging at all.