Al Qaeda's M&A Strategy

Is franchising a successful way to build a global terror network?

BY DANIEL BYMAN | DECEMBER 7, 2010

On Sept. 11, 2006, al Qaeda celebrated the fifth anniversary of its marquee terrorist attack by announcing that it had signed up hundreds of new members -- an impressive growth spurt for an organization whose membership is often estimated by American counterterrorism analysts to be in the low thousands.

But al Qaeda hadn't so much recruited its new members as acquired them: They were from the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC by its French initials), a jihadist group that for years had almost exclusively targeted the ruling regime in Algeria. "The Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat has joined the Al Qaeda organization," Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's No. 2, crowed. "May this be a bone in the throat of American and French crusaders, and their allies, and sow fear in the hearts of French traitors and sons of apostates." A few months later, the GSPC adopted the moniker "al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb" (AQIM). A minor-league guerrilla operation had rebranded itself as a franchise of the biggest name in Islamist terrorism.

AQIM is not alone in going from a local to a global focus. The popular image of al Qaeda is of an organization that draws its membership from disillusioned Muslims who, infuriated by U.S. support for Israel or intervention in the Muslim world -- and beguiled by the idea of a universal caliphate -- go off to join the fight. But in fact, much of al Qaeda's growth in the last decade has been the kind of expansion that any American businessman would recognize: They've systematically tried to absorb regional jihadist start-ups, both venerable and newly created, and convince them that their struggle is a component of al Qaeda's sweeping international agenda -- and vice versa. Zawahiri himself was once head of one such organization, Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ), which he led from an exclusive focus on toppling the Egyptian regime to an embrace of al Qaeda's anti-American and pan-Islamic agenda. Al Qaeda branches have since popped up in Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula, and the organization is making inroads with groups in Pakistan, Somalia, and elsewhere.

Consider last year's Christmas Day bombing plot, in which a Nigerian recruit to the Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) almost blew up a passenger airplane landing in Detroit. Yemen has long hosted al Qaeda-linked jihadists, but for most of the last decade they focused on local and regional targets. In 2009, however, jihadists in Yemen and Saudi Arabia announced a merger under the AQAP banner and took on a more global focus: one that included the Detroit plot and this October's plan to blow up two cargo planes as they neared U.S. cities.

The attacks emerging from Yemen have led some U.S. officials to believe al Qaeda's affiliates are more dangerous than the organization's core, isolated as it is in the Pakistani hinterlands. Making sense of this network is key to understanding the threat of terrorism today -- and how best to respond to it.

How Do I Sign Up?

Formally joining al Qaeda is a complex process and one that can take years. It is often difficult to tell when a true shift has occurred, in part because al Qaeda does not demand sole allegiance; it supports local struggles even as it pursues its own war against the United States and its allies. So group members can be half-pregnant: both part of al Qaeda's ranks and loyal fighters in their local organization. Zawahiri, for instance, had been part of al Qaeda since its founding in 1988, but for almost a decade he saw EIJ, not al Qaeda, as his primary charge. It took 10 years for Zawahiri to fully sign on to Osama bin Laden's "International Islamic Front for Jihad on the Jews and Crusaders," and three more years for his group to fully integrate with al Qaeda. For Algeria's GSPC, the process took at least four years, and the integration is still incomplete.

During this prolonged courtship, groups often straddle their old and new identities, trying to keep up the fight against the local regime while also attacking more global targets. Often this is a time of infighting, with key leaders pulling the group in different directions. Some seek to stay the course and continue to fight the local regime, while others are attracted by what al Qaeda has to offer. Somalia's al-Shabab, for instance, appears to be in such a phase today. Some parts of the organization cooperate with al Qaeda, with foreign jihadists playing leading roles in tactics and operations. But others within the movement -- probably the majority, in fact -- oppose the foreigners' control, with some even publicly condemning terrorism and even working with international humanitarian relief efforts. Al-Shabab could become "al Qaeda of the Horn of Africa," but this is not yet a done deal. And if it happens, it could split the group.

After a merger happens, command relationships between the affiliate and al Qaeda's central leadership vary. When al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula began attacks on Saudi Arabia in 2003, they were done at the direction of al Qaeda's central leadership, which was eager to strike at the kingdom. But groups like AQIM retain a high degree of independence, working with al Qaeda's core more as partners than as proxies. Many AQIM attacks still target the Algerian regime, particularly its security forces -- an aim more in keeping with the group's past priorities than al Qaeda's.

ABDIRASHID ABDULLE ABIKAR/AFP/Getty Images

 

Daniel Byman is a professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution. His forthcoming book is A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism.

MF SINCLAIR

12:44 AM ET

December 8, 2010

Expanding the Membership

"So group members can be half-pregnant" ? lol That must be the proof of their devout beliefs. Actually if there was an attractive alternative to all the "fake" religions where there are thousands of "Holy" pages written by people that never existed with zero proof of anything... there would be no war with terrorists waiting to meet their 67 wives in heaven... and no countries secreting hundreds of live fully functional nuclear weapons without the US inspecting them the way we do with Russia. And no protest groups at US military funerals, and no greenhouse gases from tens of millions of cows in countries where most humans are starving and illiterate.

 

SAIF UR REHMAN

3:46 AM ET

December 10, 2010

Do not blame religions, blame your foreign policy.....

Its not religions its the fault of American foreign policy which has infested Muslim World with hatred towards US. The same religion, US has used once as a tool of their foreign policy.

As for as " Fake religions " is concerned,
What proof you have that bible was divine, not written by people? and jesus was not a fake prophet and he was not killed due to his fake beliefs by Romans?

And Does US have any God given authority to posses and use nuclear weapons while forbidding the others to possess the same ?

 

DUNCAN-O

5:01 PM ET

December 10, 2010

@ Saif

They're ALL fake. You should really read posts before you respond to them.

 

KASEMAN

9:58 AM ET

December 8, 2010

US stupidity in paying Ethiopia's invasion of Somalia

These two differ in race and religion, and antagonism that goes back to British and Italian imperial era. Basically the US paid the Christian Amhara Ethiopians to invade Muslim Somila and behave like the Nazi SS. Not a good Idea since it radicalized the Somalis and made then even more anti US .
In the 80s the US funded the Somali dictatorship to fight Ehtiopia then ruled by a thug who was a vassal of the Rus. The US paid for white South African mercenaries and the Rus paid for the Cuban mercenaries !.

 

JOEABARRY

5:19 PM ET

December 8, 2010

Brilliant analysis

Couldn't agree more

 

SAIF UR REHMAN

3:24 AM ET

December 10, 2010

What better US can offer to the Muslim World?

Except invasions,terrorism and gifting ever expanding AlQaeda, what else US can offer to the Muslim world.?

Before 9/11, Alqaeda was just a discarded group hiding here and there, now it has expanded from Morocco to Afghanistan and beyond.

Who to blame?
Muslim world or American foreign policy!!!

 

DUNCAN-O

5:09 PM ET

December 10, 2010

Well, by your logic...

...not that I agree with it, but what has the Muslim world offered to the US? Sure, Muslim folks may have invented algebra, but what have you done for me lately? Offered unrelenting, perpetual jihad? Delivered rambling missives denouncing anything not Medina-based in nature? Flown some planes into some buildings?

Yes, by your logic, the Muslim world is to blame for American foreign policy! Not that I agree with it, of course.

 

CAPTBOBALOU

12:44 PM ET

December 10, 2010

Supports William Gibson's observation that

"terrorism is mostly about branding, but only slightly less so about the psychology of lotteries.” (in "Zero History", interesting interview here: http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2010/09/vulture_transcript_william_gib.html).

It makes sense. It's how the Roman Catholic church expanded into northern Europe.

 

DPR

3:59 PM ET

December 20, 2010

Franchising

Kunino mentions good points in regard to the franchise model. Here is a counter-argument article from SWJ from about a year ago. http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2010/01/the-al-qaeda-franchise-model-a/