A Palestinian State Means War

Why Abbas shouldn't go unilateral.

BY JONATHAN SCHANZER | DECEMBER 9, 2010

With the U.S.-led peace process looking increasingly moribund, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has begun enlisting foreign leaders in a dangerous effort to recognize a Palestinian state without Israel's agreement. Abbas and his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, began this effort earlier this year to strengthen the Palestinian negotiating position, and it is bearing more fruit than even he could have expected. Abbas, however, should be careful what he wishes for. A declaration of statehood without Israeli approval could start a war in which the Palestinians themselves would pay the highest price.

Abbas has been laying the diplomatic groundwork for a unilateral declaration of statehood for months, visiting foreign capitals and lobbying governments to extend recognition. But his efforts have gained momentum this month as a U.S. proposal for an Israeli settlement freeze has fallen apart.

On Dec. 5, Abbas visited Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. Afterward, the Palestinian envoy to Turkey announced that Erdogan would recognize a Palestinian state (within the 1967 borders) at an unspecified time. Erdogan also reportedly promised to go to bat for the initiative with other heads of state. The territory in question includes both the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip and the Fatah-led West Bank, with the presumption (no doubt invoking the ire of Hamas) that the West Bank leadership would be in charge.

In recent days, several other countries have made similar declarations. In response to a request from Abbas, outgoing Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva declared last week that his country recognized the state of Palestine based on the 1967 borders. On Dec. 6, Uruguay announced that it would do the same, and Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner also wrote to Abbas that her country recognizes a "free and independent" Palestine. On Dec. 8, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused a U.S. request to extend the moratorium on construction in West Bank settlements and Abbas withdrew from peace talks, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit reportedly insisted that discussions should transition to an "end game for a Palestinian settlement."

Almost 100 countries already recognize an independent Palestine, and it is unclear how many others Abbas has asked to sign on to his plan of a unilateral declaration. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat has approached U.N. and European officials, demanding that they force Israel to stop imposing "facts on the ground" in the West Bank. Meanwhile, Abbas advisor Nimer Hammad openly states that the Palestinians are considering a plan whereby the United Nations would approve of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem. Although U.S. officials oppose a unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood, Barack Obama's administration has not denounced these efforts.

Although a unilateral Palestinian declaration of statehood is a seemingly attractive alternative to negotiations and is gaining credence among a growing group of countries, it is an almost surefire recipe for war. If the Palestinian government unilaterally claims land where an estimated 400,000 Israeli settlers currently reside in the West Bank, don't expect them simply to pull up and move, especially if they were not consulted on the matter. Expect them to fight.

From there, a border dispute with Israel becomes inevitable. And in the Middle East, border disputes are not settled through binding arbitration. Another military conflict is sure to follow. We can expect the Iran-sponsored proxies Hezbollah and Hamas to launch new rounds of rocket attacks, and perhaps even a military assault from the Palestinian territories.

The United States and European Union are clearly worried about this possibility. They have already trained some 3,000 Palestinian soldiers who have successfully maintained calm in the West Bank in recent months. That has allowed Israel to rapidly redeploy its forces out of the West Bank, where Israeli troop levels are now at their lowest levels since after the outbreak of the first intifada in 1987. Ironically, this means the new Palestinian security forces can more easily deploy to various corners of the West Bank to defend Abbas's territorial claims.

Even if it did not result in an open war with Israel, a unilateral declaration of statehood would probably not do the Palestinians any favors. The move could unify the warring Hamas and Fatah factions -- as the second intifada against Israel did briefly when the peace process unraveled in 2000 -- but it could also divide them further. In the wake of a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state, the two factions will almost certainly square off over who constitutes the sovereign government.

Yet with more and more countries recognizing a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, what began as a seemingly empty threat to squeeze concessions from Israel has gained traction and appears increasingly likely to become a reality. A two-state solution may be around the corner, but that doesn't mean peace will follow.

DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images

 

Jonathan Schanzer is vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and author of Hamas vs. Fatah: The Struggle for Palestine.

AVILLA

10:06 PM ET

December 9, 2010

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

The International Relations Center features a report on the FDD on its "Right Web" website, which seeks to "check the militaristic drift of the country." The report states that "although the FDD is an ardent critic of terrorism, it has not criticized actions taken by Israel against Palestinians that arguably fall into this category." It terms the FDD a "prominent member of the web of neoconservative-aligned think tanks," including the American Enterprise Institute, Hudson Institute and Freedom House. Left-wing writer Jim Lobe, writing in the Asia Times, referred to the FDD as a group "whose views largely mirror those of Israel's ruling Likud Party," and said that the FDD's board of advisors includes "prominent neo-cons and Iraq war boosters." The American Conservative published an article accusing it of being funded mainly by a small number of pro-Israel hawks, as well as being engaged in "spin". It is listed as a "pro-war" organization by globalsecurity.org with regard to its stance on Iran's nuclear program, and has been described as one of the "top neocon think tanks" by the Christian Science Monitor.

FDD's president is Clifford D. May. FDD's executive director is Mark Dubowitz. FDD’s Leadership Council is composed of prominent thinkers and leaders from the defense, intelligence, and policy communities including Paula Dobriansky, Steve Forbes (!), Bill Kristol (!!!), Louis J. Freeh, Joseph Lieberman, Newt Gingrich (!!!!!), Max Kampelman, Robert McFarlane, and James Woolsey.

The members of FDD's Board of Advisors are Gary Bauer, Rep. Eric Cantor (LOL), Gene Gately, General P.X. Kelley, Charles Krauthammer (...lol), Kathleen Troia "KT" McFarland, Richard Perle, Steven Pomerantz, Oliver "Buck" Revell, and Francis J. "Bing" West.

Israel lobby? What Israel lobby?

 

OFERDESADE

4:43 PM ET

December 11, 2010

1st time here, surprised...

... that the talkbacks r about as "deep" as in ynet or hufpost (actually i do the latter an injustice).
but 2 bizness:
israel is not threatening. nothing better could happen than a unilateral decision. at which point the PA would no longer b able 2 blame their despotic 2-faced corruption on anyone else but themselves.
unfortunately, yes, there would be a war, but it would be internal and guess who would have to bare the shrapnel.
as for the talkback i am attaching it to, really! conspiracy theorists on a publication called foreign policy? does nobody ref this trash? who's next? bagdivian?

 

JOHNBOY4546

10:13 PM ET

December 9, 2010

Nice to know what a ex-WINEP shill thinks....

...and he thinks the Palestinians should know their place.

And their place in the world is to be mediaval serfs to their Israeli overlords i.e. they have no "rights" until/unless Israel agrees that they can. And if Israel does not agre, well, that's where the word "warlords" comes in.

How depressingly predictable.

You know, you could read this "analysis" and *almost* fail to notice that the Palestinians are under an Israeli belligerent occupation, and that Israel is therefore *not* their sovereign and, therefore, they do *not* need Israel's permission-slip before declaring their independence.

Here's a thought: can you "go to war" on someone that you are already holding under a "belligerent occupation"?

I believe that the answer to that is: yeah, you can, if you are willing to commit a war of aggression against them.

Let's hope ol' Netanyahu remembers what happened to Saadam Hussein and Slobodan Milisovic when they thought that "wars of aggression" were a walk in the park....

 

PJW5552

11:36 PM ET

December 9, 2010

West Bank and Gaza independence

Let's hope Obama has the guts to tell Israel to take a hike. Step away, quit protecting Israel and let the cards fall where they will in the international community. Here is a country that puts walls around its neighbors and restricts their freedoms, imports and exports. Humm, sounds very similar to what the Germans did to Jews. Here is a country that believes Jewish people have a right to retrieve lost property taken during WWII, but denies that right to people it takes land and property from in the Middle East. Here is a country that declares itself the only Democracy in the Middle East, but denies equal rights, civil rights and access to justice to the people it lords over. Here is a country that kills, bombs and destroys its neighbors in a ratio of 10-20 for every Israeli that dies and constantly requests the world to feel sorry for what suffering of Israeli's. I'm fed up with Israel, will not support it and I write my Congressman regularly to protest every vote he casts in support of Israel. I encourage all good Americans to do the same.

Since Eric Cantor believes Israel is more important than America, let's see if we can't make sure he is voted out next election. We need people in Congress who represent Americas interests, not Israels.

 

S.RYVRE

9:39 PM ET

December 13, 2010

Well said - I couldn't agree

Well said - I couldn't agree with you more!

 

BKUWATLI

11:53 PM ET

December 9, 2010

Where are the analysis?

this article lacks any analysis. It sounds as a direct warning from the Israeli government. Don't declare a state or else!!!

 

GENIE

11:17 PM ET

December 10, 2010

The Likud platform

"A unilateral Palestinian declaration of the establishment of a Palestinian state will constitute a fundamental and substantive violation of the agreements with the State of Israel and the scuttling of the Oslo and Wye accords. The government will adopt immediate stringent measures in the event of such a declaration. "

I call that gall, baby.

 

OFERDESADE

4:45 PM ET

December 11, 2010

analysis?

judging by the reader responses here, i dont think they'd get analysis if it hit them on the head with a crowbar.

 

BECH

1:11 AM ET

December 10, 2010

War is already on

1. Palestine is a state. Occupied.
2. Territory occupation means war.
3. Settlements in occupied territories means war.
4. Who choose to live in occupied territories knows the risks.
5. Open support for the Palestinian state is increasing as US power is fading.
6. FP shouldn’t publish one-sided journalism.

 

JOHNBOY4546

3:10 AM ET

December 10, 2010

You got it, BECH

This dude seems to have had a brain-freeze that causes him to "forget" that Israel is ALREADY the occupying power. How he can forget this when it has been an undeniable fact for over 40+ years is beyond me.... maybe he had his brains sucked out when he was studying for his PhD at Hebrew University.

But this article posits that a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence is an act of aggression *against* Israel, and therefore it is quite understandable - unavoidable, really - that Israel would respond to such a declaration with Attack! Attack! Attack! Crush! Kill! Destroy!!!!!

Quite what that does for the hasbarah "conventional wisdom" regarding who was (and was not) the aggressor in the 1948-49 War of Independence is, apparently, something that has never occured to him, and you can be pretty certain he is not going to rush off to rewrite THOSE history books.....

So it's an outrageous act of aggression against Israel when the zionists unilaterally declared their independence, but it's just one of those things (and thoroughly understandable too, according to this dude) that Israel should go ape-shit on the Palestinians were they to do exactly the same thing.....

 

BUDAHH

6:50 AM ET

December 10, 2010

When was palestine ever a state was it

When the jordanians corolled it, or when the egyptians, turks or british, they definitely had the chance but chose to avoid the partition plan and decided to attck Israel instead.
Is it the state in the west bank or gaza, because those are not the same thing.
Then came all the arab countries and decided that there are palestinian people, what makes them a nation I ask? besides the fact they live in the same area?

So all Americans who live in occupied mexican territory know the risks, just like half the world lives in occupied territory no one is safe you say,

 

OFERDESADE

4:46 PM ET

December 11, 2010

 

BECH

6:20 AM ET

December 12, 2010

Palestine State

Palestine is a state, nation, country or whatever denomination applies to a territory that belongs to whom historically live there.
The world has many territorial conflicts but Israel is the only self-called state totally installed in occupied territory.
No country is the "same thing" in all its extension.

 

BECH

6:27 AM ET

December 12, 2010

Counting

7. The State of Palestine is just a matter of time – and lifes - depending on US political and financial interests.

 

FELINE74

2:15 AM ET

December 10, 2010

What if they unilaterally declared themselves part of Israel?

I seem to recall they actually threatened to do that once.

 

JOHNBOY4546

2:56 AM ET

December 10, 2010

Here's another point to ponder, FELINE74

What if the Palestinians unilaterally declare their state, prompting Israel to "invade" in order to kill that declaration at birth, and **THEN** the Palestinians declare that (a) if Israel won't let them have their own state then (b) Israel needs to give them full citizenship and full voting rights?

How - exactly - can Israel then justify its position *except* to admit that it is a medieval warlord and the Palestinians are their serfs, if not their slaves?

 

GAHGEER

7:08 AM ET

December 10, 2010

I don't get it why everyone thinks the P's are weak?

Their leadership is, but the people and their understanding of their rights are way stronger.

Regardless of the writer's threats, a Palestinian state declaration might not pass through the UNSC, but it will do through the General Assembly.

Once a P state is declared, Israel will be expected to annext its settlements (the big ones), and impose a harsher military rule over the West Bank.

But at the same time, the PA has already got several cards that can be deployed effectively:

1) the Goldstone report (in March 2011, the PA can ask for it to be moved from Geneva to NY, where it will start to take the shape of an axe over Hamas and Israel's heads)

2) In addition, as a state, Palestine will be able to gain a place in many institutions at the UN (ICJ...etc) where it can hold Israel accountable to the world, not the US congress.

3) One also keeps forgetting about the Palestinians themselves. After the 1982 invasion of Lebanon and the expulsion of the PLO, everyone, including Arafat himself, thought that the Palestinians had lost it. But ooops, on 8 December 1987, Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza - without help and much to the surprise of the Palestinian leaders in Tunis and the Israeli military - decided to take their destiny with their own hands and fight Israel's war arsenal with stones and demos.
one also keeps forgetting that this is a very likely solution - and this time such a peaceful choice is supported by the majority of countries, including the EU (whose ambassadors are paying attention to the anti-wall Bilin and Naalin phenomena in the West Bank and even attending the trial of a Palestinian peace activist, Abu-Rahmah)

4) If one looks at the latest polls in the WB and GS, since mid-2007 until now, one'll see that at least 45% of the Palestinians support neither Fatah nor Hamas (i.e no to futile negotiations, and no to violent resistance too). These 45% will be ready to march to the streets, to Israeli checkpoints, and to the settlements, shouting "that's enough" and "leave us alone for the sake of g-d!"

2011 is not like 1987, when if Palestine was not mentioned in prime-time TV bulletins, then no one would know. It's the era of the electronic intifada: Facebook and Twitter. and Israel and the pro-Israel Jews will not stand for long the sight of western demonstrators in front of their embassies and the Israeli shops in those capitals. Israelis in Israel itself, who want a solution and don't like their ostracization whenever they travel abroad, will compel their government to pull out.

I say, all Abbas has to do is go to the UN and get bilateral recognition from as many countries as they can, and let the rest to the Palestinians themselves.

States have never been created out of just "talks".

 

OFERDESADE

4:51 PM ET

December 11, 2010

tfadal, as the saying goes.

3 years army service, constant griping against them by everyone & his brother-in-law, taxes to pay for barak's ranch, olmert's house, etc. ad nauseum, having to watch knesset members imitate italian parliament members, no rain, jewish mother-in-laws.
of course, they'd have to swear allegiance to the state and promise not to help their brethren blow up cafes and discotheques and women with small children and shoot innocents point blnk and not to repeat pre-zionist era massacres of jews, but what the hey, you can't have your cake and s**t on it, can you.

 

OFERDESADE

4:52 PM ET

December 11, 2010

... ruled by darth vader

do you actually read the news? i mean from reliable sources, not the disney channel.

 

LSFCH

8:34 AM ET

December 10, 2010

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KASEMAN

10:58 AM ET

December 10, 2010

Palestine is kaput

The strong always suppress the weak, and when the two fight overe the same land the latter is, well, wiped out. Israel and the US are one in wantinf to wipe out the Palestinianb, note the rabid anti Palestinian majority in Congress, and the the Likudist bias of the majoroty of the US evangelicals. So two state solution is one above the ground and one below the ground. Guess who is almost in the grave.
The question now is what how will the 4-5 million new Palestians refugees will do.
Two things are sure: the US will be spending $trillions to support Israel land grabbing and mass expulsions, and Avigdor Lieberman will succeed Nuttyahoo and be invited to address a joint session of Congress where he will get a multitude of standing ovations. Appropriate for a former brotthel guard in the house of whores.

Sic transit gloria

 

COURTNEYME109

12:32 PM ET

December 10, 2010

Future Palestine= Nakbah Redux

If the most literate Arabs ever on the face of the earth (your choice - the Strip or the West Bank) pounding their AKM's, K'Ssams, K'Tushahs and K'GRADs into laptops and stripper poles in a joyous celebration of a fully functional democracy where fun and free choice reign instead of ye olde whee tarded shame, honor, gendercide and revenge meme driven parasite enclaves with rocket rich rejectionists and West Bank victimisticism, that would be sweet!

Does any serious thinking person seriously think this would happen? We know what future Palestine would look like and most likely 2 brand new baby nation states - for whatever reasons (though failure to enforce Writ of State ala Land of the Pure certainly comes to mind) - will ignite the ignition on another war that will time machine the entire AO right back to Little Satan's accidental empire.

Or even worse for the Palestines - such combatty ops could actually result in a Greater Little Satan that may not be particularly interested in right of returning turf won yet again after eons of misery, on again off diplomacy and terrorism.

 

COURTNEYME109

10:25 AM ET

December 11, 2010

The 23 State Solution

Right of Relocation.

Allowing Little Satan to annex the entire West Bank and xport 2.5 million Palestinians with a history of voting in real elections to their choice of any of Arab League's 22 despotries, horrid or benign.

Such a realignment of immense strategic import could be easily subsidized by generous reparations from mainly Egypt and Syria (who started the entire sorry mess) and to a lesser extent, Kuwait, Wahabi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq in lieu of their past failed combat ops and on again off again help in creating Nakbah refugees.

Arab League would need to repeal their Palestinian Apartheid laws (like in Lebanon and slave trading Syria) - that abuse Palestinians as strategic minority resources and allow Right Of Relocation to any Nakbahteers.

Yes it would be terrible! All those poor poor people having to leave their homes and start life anew.

Dang. Can't be any worse than the millions of refugees that fled ancient turf since Roman Times
and assimilated into loyal, productive citizens of their new homelands, when Soviet Union steamrolled their way into Ost Europa.

And it's way better - and way more humane - than reduxing another war Nakbah

 

JKOLAK

12:32 PM ET

December 10, 2010

No matter what method is used

No matter what method is used - negotiated or unilaterally declared - there will be no peace. The Palestinian charter declares that Israel has no right to exist. Palestinians only use negotiations to gain more concessions that will help them on their road to the destruction of Israel.

 

PIGALERT

2:13 PM ET

December 10, 2010

Palestinians could have had their state many times

They rejected peace efforts every time launching violence.

If they wanted their own state, they would have capitalized on Israeli withdrawl from Gaza rather then increase rocket fire.

Wake up! Israeli "occupation" and settlements did not exist prior to Arab attacks on Israel.

Abbas could have had his settlement freeze if he acknowledged 2 states for 2 people means a Jewish state and a Palestinian state.

He does not want this.

Israel will continue to defend itself against attacks by all means necessary.

You want to stop the occupation? Stop the violence. A vast majority of Israelis will gladly pull out of the West bank for peace.

Palestinians dont want peace, they want Israel's destruction.

And so the cycle continues.

 

MARTY24

4:45 PM ET

December 10, 2010

Paying attention to details

Contributors who suggest that a unilateral declaration of independence by the Palestinians is somehow parallel to israel's 1948 declariaton of independence miss a significant detail: The UN had authorized the establishment of Israel while the Palestinians committed themselves to NOT doing exactly this when the Oslo process started. For the taqiyya masters on this blog, this matters little, for serious people, it is fundamental.

Other contributors like to draw a paraellel to the end of apartheid in South Africa, but again there are profound differences. Black South Africans weren't ideologically committed to the annihilation of white South Africans, while the Palestinians are ideologically committed to the annihilation of the Jews, as spokepeople for Hamas make a point of repeating rather frequently. This is why the one-state solution is another prelude to war.

Those who favor the unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood have three important questions to address:

1. The proposal that the state be within the boundaries of 1967 raises the interesting question of which boundaries? If the intent is of the Palestinian state, then Israel should agree immediately, since there was no such state in 1967. Israel had no eastern boundary, just an armistice line, and turning an armistice line into a boundary requires agreement. Meanwhile, asserting the 1967 line requires the proposed state of Palestine to recognize the existence of the state across that border. Will they? If not, then their claim about the 1967 border is a fraud.

2. Declaring a state puts an end to the "right of return" because a state cannot demand that people it claims as its citizens have the right to go to some other state's territory. If the Palestinian state rejects the refugees as its citizens, then in what sense are the Palestinians a people?

3. International law makes residents of the territory claimed by a state at its establishment citizens of that state, unless those citizens choose to reject it. Thus, a unilateral declaration would make those Jews living in the settlements citizens of the Palestinian state and any attack on them would be a matter of ethnic cleansing. Are the Palestinians ready to accord citizenship rights to these Jews?

In each case, if the Palestinians are prepared to make the concessions required of them in their unilaterally-declared state, they should also be prepared to make the same concessions in the negotiations, giving their state a chance to succeed. But they haven't been willing to negotiate at all, so we must assume they will violate their obligations under international law and enter existence as a criminal state.

The root problem remains the refusal to agree that Jews will have the rights Muslims claim for themselves.

 

JOHNBOY4546

6:15 PM ET

December 10, 2010

Laughable nonsense from MARTY24

" The UN had authorized the establishment of Israel while the Palestinians committed themselves to NOT doing exactly this when the Oslo process started."

Ahem. The UN had authorized TWO states, not one, back in 1947. Your segue from Res 181 to Oslo is therefore a non-sequitur i.e. the UN authorization that was granted to the "Jewish state" in 1947 was also granted to the "Arab state" in 1947, and has never been rescinded.

" Black South Africans weren't ideologically committed to the annihilation of white South Africans, while the Palestinians are ideologically committed to the annihilation of the Jews, as spokepeople for Hamas make a point of repeating rather frequently."

And in what way is a "spokepeople for Hamas" a representative of the "Palestinian People", Marty? The *univerally* recognized representative of the Palestinian people is the PLO, not Hamas, so why don't you go and see what the PLO has to say on this matter?

"1. The proposal that the state be within the boundaries of 1967 raises the interesting question of which boundaries?"

With the singular exception of East Jerusalem the state of Israel has N.E.V.E.R. claimed that it possesses sovereignty over any territory anywhere over the Green Line. And what is a border if not the line where *your* sovereignty ends and Someone Else's sovereignty begins?

"2. Declaring a state puts an end to the "right of return" because a state cannot demand that people it claims as its citizens have the right to go to some other state's territory. If the Palestinian state rejects the refugees as its citizens, then in what sense are the Palestinians a people?"

Two points to make on that gibberish:
a) The claim for Right of Return is that those refugees are entitled to ISRAELI citizenship because they were part of the popln of 350,000 Arabs who were allocated to the "Jewish state" and who were ejected by the Jewish militias between 1947-49. That is a right that they have as INDIVIDUALS, and in this regard Abbas is merely acting as the advocate for their rights. They don't loose those HUMAN rights even if Abbas declares his state.
b) Turn your latter argument around and apply it to your own case i.e. if Israel were to repeal the Law of Return then would that singular act of llaw repeal "prove" that there is no such thing as a Jewish people? The answer, clearly, would be "no".

"3. International law makes residents of the territory claimed by a state at its establishment citizens of that state, unless those citizens choose to reject it."

No, nothing in international law gives citizens an option to "reject" their new sovereign i.e. if a state annexes a territory then the people on it are annexed along with the land; the two go together as a job-lot, and the only choice in the matter that the people would have is to either stay or to go.

Have said that, your argument is a nonsense because THESE Israeli citizens are illegally squatting on this land, and so the legal status of THESE Israeli citizens is akin to "IDF camp followers". Because of that the Palestinians are well within their rights to insist that when the IDF leaves that it take its trash with it, including these squatters.

"Are the Palestinians ready to accord citizenship rights to these Jews?" They have already said "yes", provided that the Jews are willing to accept being good and loyal citizens of Palestine.

The Palestinians are not required to extend that curtesy to these squatters, but they have extended it nonetheless.

 

JOHNSHARP

3:34 AM ET

December 11, 2010

Niceee

Niceee

 

JACOB BLUES

5:33 PM ET

December 10, 2010

I'm wondering why the UNSC would back this move

I cannot see how China is all ready and gung-ho to let Taiwan and Tibet make the same declarations, which is the precedent that the Palestinians would set. Same thing for Kashmir. So too do you open a bucket of worms in Cyprus.
.
Likewise, the Palestinian declaration would seem to abrogate the UNSC agreements 242 and 338. i.e. land for peace.
.
The Palestinian Authority appears to be attempting another run at the 3 no's of Khartoum. No peace, no recognition, no normalization.
.
Setting up states is not a simple or easy venture. Look at the trouble Somaliland is going through in its attempt to seperate from Somolia.
.

 

JOHNBOY4546

6:35 PM ET

December 10, 2010

Non-sequitur city, Jacob

"I cannot see how China is all ready and gung-ho to let Taiwan and Tibet make the same declarations, which is the precedent that the Palestinians would set."

No, not at all; the Palestinians are a STATELESS people, whereas as far as China is concerned the Taiwanese and the Tibetans part of the sovereign state of China, even if they are rebellous.

The comparison is therefore no comparison at all i.e. a STATELESS people can declare a state, and that declaration is **not** an act of rebellion against their sovereign, precisely because they have no sovereign...

" Same thing for Kashmir."

No, and for the same reason i.e. the Kashmiris are not STATELESS.

They may belong to a state that they don't want to belong to, sure, but they are not STATELESS. Therefore a declaration of independence by "Kashmir" would be a very different thing to a declaration by "Palestine".

"So too do you open a bucket of worms in Cyprus."

Nobody doubts that Cyprus is already a can of worms but, again, the point of comparison that you seek to draw does not exist i.e. the Cypriots are not a STATELESS people, and so the declaration of North Cyprus is an exceptionally inexact comparison to the declaration by a STATELESS people (the Palestinians) of their own sovereign state ("Palestine").

"Likewise, the Palestinian declaration would seem to abrogate the UNSC agreements 242 and 338. i.e. land for peace."

No, actually, because
(a) their declaration involves them ceding forever to Israel any claim over the territory between the Partition Plan line of 1947 and the Green Line of 1949, and so there is your "land for peace", and
(b) Resolution 242 talked only about the various sides RECOGNIZING each other's boundaries, and says nothing about NEGOTIATING new boundaries. A Palestinian declaration RECOGNIZING the 1949 line as the border would actually mean that they are complying with Res 242, while Israel's continued point-blank refusal to accept that **any** boundary exists puts it in violation of Res 242.

Perhaps you should go and read that Resolution for once, rather than just working from 2nd-hand talking points?

 

RAY GIBBS

12:37 AM ET

December 11, 2010

Declare it, a Palestinian state

Palestinians should declare (non-violently) their state within the UN's 1967 borders.

A number of countries are ready to recognize same. Others, in due time, will find such attractive, make declarations. World opinion rests with the Palestinians.

Enough bullying, foolishness, occupation another's lands, peoples.

Time and our world move on. Other problems await our problem solvers.

Peace

 

NEW_YORK_LONER

10:20 AM ET

December 11, 2010

The 1-state, or Bi-National State Solution

The author makes a few good points.

He may be right. the 400,000 Israelis who have "settled" in occupied Palestine will probably not leave without a fight and they most likely would not wish to remain there and become second-class citizens in a Palestinian state - like Arab Israelis in Israel.

The Arabs in the British Mandate of Palestine never agreed to the UN partition ; likewise, the Israeli "settlers" would never agree to UN "unilateral" recognition of a Palestinian state, with pre-war (1967) borders. War could result.

The only alternative left is the one-state solution; a scheme in which the WB and Gaza (and the northern buffer strip?) are all consensually annexed into Israel proper - with the stipulation that everyone living there becomes a full-rights Israeli citizen. Of course, neither side likes this pragmatic idea...neither side is known for its tolerance concerning the other.

If Israel truly is a secular and pluralistic democracy, as claimed, then a bi-national state is a viable option. If Israel is actually a Jewish theocracy and not a true democracy, then the "bi-national state solution" is a fanciful notion.

The US should bow out of the Israel/Palestine negotiating business and let the UN decide.

Obama's overly generous offer for a 90-day freeze was rejected by the reluctant Israelis - we tried, now, let them eat cake.

 

OFERDESADE

4:57 PM ET

December 11, 2010

does anybody actually read this? i mean anybody serious?

i'm surprised nobody's quoting scripture

 

NEW_YORK_LONER

5:11 PM ET

December 11, 2010

Amen, Brother Mighty Mouse

I fully agree with your assessment, MM.

If Americans only knew, or realized that these large Israeli settlement blocks in the OT are for Jews only, they might see the parallel with the Jim Crow period in the American south.

Of course, the born-again Christians who populate the former confederacy might not find Jim Crow all that offensive, especially when practiced by the Chosen People in the Promised Land.

A one-state solution does not fit in well with end-times Scriptural prophecies, ergo, American born-agains will reject such a practical solution....they are trying to expedite Armageddon and the Rapture.

If American Christians realized that state-sponsored, Israeli abortion mills terminate tens of thousands of Israeli pregnancies every year, in contravention of the Hyde Amendment, their ardor and zeal for Zionism might fade quickly. The MSM never runs a story about the Israeli abortion mills...it would not be good for business....Americans are kept in the dark on that one.

Please, google my username and visit my Livejournal blog site.

 

KLEINYY

9:36 AM ET

December 12, 2010

Turn off the alarm

I'm surprised nobody is trying to relate to what's actually going on around here (I'm writing from the library of Hebrew U in Jerusalem).

1. I appreciate Mr Schantzer trying to hold up the Israeli end, but actually I think a unilateral Palestinian declaration of statehood would be a big mistake on their part and I don't mind if they make it.

2. There'll be no war in the area Abbas nominally controls because the Palestinians had a war there in 2000-2005 and became sick of it. Now they are enjoying a little peace and quiet and mainly want to make money, which is OK by me and most Israelis. Gaza is a different story of course, its capital is Teheran.

3. Israel's Jews aren't interested in having more Palestinian citizens. They want to live in a Jewish state. They want the Palestinians to run their own affairs and not bother Israel. More and more, this is actually happening.

4. Behold the amazing vanishing occupation. In almost all places where Palestinians live they do run their own affairs, including their sweet little corruption rackets, police themselves, tax themselves, etc. Israeli army presence in these parts of the West Bank is minimal and could go to zero tomorrow, except at the border crossings. But if the Palestinians leave Israel alone Israelis will be happy to leave them alone, with or without a formal agreement. Of course, the professional Palestinian propagandists here would rather commit shuhada than admit it.

6. Of course Abbas wants to undermine Israel's existence but he's impotent to achieve that. The only real issue that remains to be resolved is where the de facto border between Israel and the Palestinian-controlled areas runs.

7. If Abbas declares "independence" unilaterally, well, unilateralism works both ways. Israel can simply take what it wants and leave what it doesn't want--Palestinian population areas. If Abbas wants to challenge this situation he'll have to pick up the phone and negotiate. You think the Europeans are going to get Israel out of areas it annexes through pleading and sanctions? Dream on, bub. They don't have the conviction, especially if Abbas goes unilateral.

8. Some historical and legal notes. No state now is sovereign between the 1967 lines and the Jordan. The 1948 partition plan died when the Arabs rejected it so Johnboy's and Marty24's argument over the issue is irrelevant. Regarding the disposition of future sovereignty in this area, the only relevant international norm is the terms of the 1922 mandate, which set the entire area aside for the creation of a Jewish national homeland. So Israel's claim to the territory is as valid as anyone else's. Of course, as I wrote above, Israel has no interest in claiming the areas where the Palestinians actually live. This still leaves between 40% and 60% of Judaea and Samaria (there, I used the term) where the Palestinians ain't. Israelis have no moral, legal or pragmatic reason to refrain from claiming these areas.

9. Of course, I don't think Israel should recognize a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence. This is the Middle East, if you want something you have to bargain for it.

 

PUBLICUS

12:53 PM ET

December 12, 2010

The Old World

Yes, we are dealing with the old and the fanatical of the Old World, those who have not experienced the benefits of the win-win approach, those who know only the win-lose approach. All of the semite tribes are guilty of this, irredeemably guilty.

Clinton while president tried his formidable negotiating and bargaining powers but failed to translate these great qualities to a ME solution. That's when it became clear that no solution is possible. The reason no solution is possible is that both sides in the ME are entirely tribal, i.e., uncompromising, unyielding, irrational. This indeed is the nature of hard core ancient tribalism. George Bush tried ignoring the ME to try to save US prestige because of the intractable nature of the ME situation, especially after Bill Clinton's demonstrated inability to use his powerful capacity to persuade, cajole. However, the old idea Bush pursued, i.e., ignore the problem and it will go away, once again proved to be the proved old and failed notion and approach that it is.

The semites are unfortunately Old World, Old Testament peoples who because they are what they are will bring the end game down on themselves, by themselves. It took the Europeans 2000 years to learn that, when one tries to dominate the others, all lose, but at least the Europeans eventually learned from it and decided to form some semblance of a cooperative if squabbling peaceful union. The semite tribes however rather prefer to take themselves to their own little regional Armageddon.

It's now shaping up that we should best get out of their God damned way.

 

A BALANCED VIEW

5:35 PM ET

December 13, 2010

The settlers have never had

The settlers have never had any legal right to build on that land, and they deserve to be sent home.

This current scenario is actually pretty workable. Palestine declares a state on 67 borders. This topples the various obfuscations of the actual situation, especially after a majority of nations on earth agree to recognize Palestine. Israels initial refusal to acknowledge reality will then be met with a VERY serious world wide boycott, sanction, and divestment campaign that will be driven by this new and better "fact on the ground".

Will there be violence in the interim? That's entirely up to Israel, but when the Palestinians declare a 67 borders state, the game is over anyways.

 

KEVINSD

6:03 PM ET

December 13, 2010

I don't know if the game is over, but...

I think you're absolutely right on the question of intentions. The PA is hoping to provoke the sort of international boycott which led to the end of apartheid in South Africa. I don't have all that much sympathy for the Palestinian cause, frankly, but think the chances that Israel will ever grant them sovereignty of their own accord are basically zero.

In ancient Greece the Spartans had a festival where they would ritually declare war against their helots (the descendants of a rival city who were defeated in a war and turned into slaves)--this would include new soldiers killing a few in a manner recognized as lawful.

Israel can't turn into a modern Sparta without being ostracized by the rest of the world. Not saying I know the answer--just suggesting this isn't one of the options.

 

TALKNIC

11:29 PM ET

January 3, 2011

"A declaration of statehood without Israeli approval..." Uh?

A declaration of Independence is by it's very nature unilateral. Look up the word independence. It requires no one's approval. It would be contrary to the very notion of independence.

What IS required is that the declaring entity be free of control by any other entity in order that a Declaration of Sovereign Independence become effective. Then and only then can other countries grant recognition. (Look for the word 'will' in statements by Sth American Govts)

The establishment of the State of Israel gives a primary example "The Act of Independence will become effective at one minute after six o’clock on the evening of 14 May 1948, Washington time.” when the League of Nations Mandate expired and British occupation ended.

In order that a Palestinian Declaration of Independence come into effect, Israel will be required to WITHDRAW.

To withdraw Israel must finally admit to having and recognize it's OWN actual Sovereign territories. Remembering of course that the frontiers of the other states in the region were all set before Israel declared. So if it isn't the actual Sovereign territory of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt or Israel, it's Palestinian territory.

Therein lies Israel's biggest self created 'fact on the ground' dilemma. It has never legally annexed any territories.

The territories acquired by war by 1949 and described by the Provisional Government to the UNSC on May 22nd 1948 and 15 Jun 1949 as OUTSIDE OF ISRAEL and the "territories occupied" in '67 and never un-occupied, have ever been legally annexed to Israel.

There are MILLIONS of Israeli's unwittingly living outside of the actual extent of Israeli Sovereignty. Not just a few hundred thousand illegal settler in the West Bank and East Jerusalem

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"A declaration of statehood without Israeli approval could start a war in which the Palestinians themselves would pay the highest price. ."

Oh? Who would be responsible for such a war? A Declaration of Independence is not 'casus belli' . It's not an act of war.

Unless the newly declared state attacks territory actually Sovereign to the State of Israel, it will have every right to attempt to expel Israeli forces and call upon the UNSC and Regional Powers for support.

If Israel continues to refuse to comply with International Law it might itself in the same position as Indonesia when East Timor declared, staring at the barrel of a UNSC coalition.

Even if Israel does comply with International Law, there will very likely be an Israeli civil war, as it struggle to undo it's short sighted and illegal 'facts on the ground'.

Unlike any other civil war in history (?), it would be fought to a large degree, OUTSIDE OF Israeli Sovereignty. In 'territories occupied" and never un-occupied, in illegally annexed territories and in territories acquired by war and never legally annexed.

In which case, the other Regional Powers and the UNSC can be legitimately brought into play completely at odds with Israel and completely favoring the Palestinian state States acting outside of the extent of their sovereignty are subject to the UN/UNSC under the UN Charter

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"If the Palestinian government unilaterally claims land where an estimated 400,000 Israeli settlers currently reside in the West Bank"

That'd be ILLEGALLY reside...It quite simply IS NOT Israeli territory - UNSC Res 1960 (of 2009) ever read it? It IS Palestinian territory.

".. don't expect them simply to pull up and move, especially if they were not consulted on the matter"

ILLEGAL settlers have no say in the matter, they're not citizens of Palestine.

". Expect them to fight"

Israel has a duty to evacuate them or they could chose to become Palestinians IF the Palestinians agree. If they arm themselves, they are valid military targets. If they resist the Israeli Government it is civil war, OUTSIDE OF ISRAEL

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"The territory in question includes both the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip and the Fatah-led West Bank, with the presumption (no doubt invoking the ire of Hamas) that the West Bank leadership would be in charge"

How does the author get to write for a foreign Policy outfit when he has no idea of how states are formed? Look to the establishment of the State of Israel.

A declaration of Independence is not made by a political party. It is made by a non-political body such as the Jewish People's Council. It is made on behalf of ALL the people in the territory being declared regardless of their political persuasions. (The Israeli declaration was unique, it was declared on behalf of the World's Jewish population regardless of where they lived or their citizenship)

Such a body only exists for the purposes of declaring and instituting a Provisional Government until such time as a system of Government is decided upon and a Government is elected or put into place.

1) The State is declared. 2) A system of Governance is instituted 3) a state Government is put into place.

Hamas and/or Fatah will have to stand for election. No doubt other parties will also arise.

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"From there, a border dispute with Israel becomes inevitable. And in the Middle East, border disputes are not settled through binding arbitration"

Twaddle ... read the Israel/Egypt Peace agreement. Especially the parts where Israel is required to withdraw BEFORE peaceful relations resume. http://wp.me/PDB7k-Y#Peace-Egypt-Israel

Border 'disputes' come about when states claim already defined borders. The disputes are about exactly where. If Israel claims no set borders between itself and Palestine (which is of course heifer sh*te) , how can it dispute where they are?