Mexico's Forever War

Four years into Mexican President Felipe Calderón's assault on the drug cartels, all his country has to show for it is skyrocketing violence. It's time for a different strategy.

BY KEVIN CASAS-ZAMORA | DECEMBER 22, 2010

View a slide show of Mexico's bloody 2010

December 16, 2009, was supposed to be a turning point in Mexico's long and violent war on drugs. On that day, 200 Mexican naval commandos -- the army and local police were considered too infiltrated by the drug cartels to lead the operation -- stormed the luxury high-rise apartment of Arturo Beltrán Leyva, one of the country's most notorious drug kingpins. Following a two-hour gun battle that was captured on local television, the troops overpowered the drug lord's security forces, killing Beltrán Leyva and six of his bodyguards.


Photo Essay: Mexico's Year of the Dead

The operation was praised by U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration officials and hailed by Mexican President Felipe Calderón as "an important achievement for the people and government of Mexico and a heavy blow against one of the most dangerous criminal organizations in Mexico." Mere days later, however, Beltrán Leyva's gunmen brutally slaughtered the family of a young marine killed during the operation, including his mourning mother and sister, in an act of retribution. This was a mere prologue to the worst spike in killings in the past four years. In the six months that followed this operation, disputes over leadership of the Beltrán Leyva cartel helped push the number of drug-related murders in Mexico from less than 800 per month to more than 1,100, where it has remained ever since.

One year later, Calderón's offensive against the country's drug-trafficking cartels continues to exact a horrible price on Mexico's population. If current trends hold, Mexico will end 2010 with more than 11,000 drug-related killings, up from approximately 6,600 last year. The 2010 figure represents a fivefold increase over the number of deaths in 2006, at the dawn of Calderón's war.

Even worse, drug-related violence is spreading throughout Mexico. In 2008, three states -- Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Baja California -- accounted for 57 percent of killings. Two years later, they account for well less than half of the deaths, as massacres have spread to areas that had previously been largely spared of the violence, such as Mexico City and the state of Nayarit. And yet, not long ago Calderón still claimed that "our hope lies in persevering in this attack, in persevering in this strategy." Despite the difficulties, he promised that "a clear day will come."

Calderón's failure to bring peace to the country should prompt serious questions about his strategy, which has focused on weakening the cartels by military means. More than 45,000 soldiers are currently deployed to this end. While the government can point to discrete achievements in disrupting the cartels' operations, the long-term consequences of its operations have been ambiguous.

For example, seizures of cocaine have indeed gone up in Mexico during Calderón's offensive. However, the scale of the confiscations is underwhelming when compared with those made by much smaller countries in the region, at a fraction of the human cost. Cocaine seizures in Mexico during 2008 and 2009 were similar in volume to those made by Costa Rica and were less than 40 percent of those achieved by Panama's authorities.

Similarly, the government regularly touts having arrested around 20 major drug bosses in the past four years as a signature victory in its war on the cartels. However, this achievement has done little to bring stability to the country -- in fact, it has done just the opposite. The resulting fragmentation of the cartels has unleashed vicious murderous cycles and a geographical dispersion of violence as emerging organizations vie for control of new routes. 

When Calderón introduced his military plans to deal with the drug cartels, violence in Mexico was nowhere near the heights it has reached today. The country's murder rate had fallen by nearly half between 1992 and 2006. And this was true even in the states that have borne the brunt of drug-related violence in the past four years. The state of Chihuahua -- where the violence-ridden city of Ciudad Juárez is located -- had 18 murders per 100,000 people when Calderón took over at the end of 2006. Three years later, it suffered a whopping 74 murders per 100,000 people, 13 times the rate of the United States. If Chihuahua were an independent country, it would have the dubious honor of having the world's highest homicide rate.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

 

Kevin Casas-Zamora is senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. Previously, he was Costa Rica's vice president and minister of national planning.

INSPIRATION

12:58 PM ET

December 23, 2010

Unstoppable criminal energy?

Without any doubt it is a huge challenge to dismantle the exceedingly powerful
drug cartels in Mexico, but you also have to recognize that it would have been far less complicated to stop this tendency at the beginning of its advent and not now when it has reached a dangerous climax.
Why just Mexico became such a victim of these criminal forces?
A stable state founded on the rule of law doens't give such criminals even a chance to develop.
Therefore it is Calderon's duty to restore this code of law and particularly a profound law enforcement in order to undermine this horrible criminal energy.
Otherwise, this country will remain overshadowed and darken by this for a long time.

 

KRISHNA-KIRTI

10:24 PM ET

December 23, 2010

Sometimes a society is just screwed...

As a culture goes, so goes its society. While most people in Mexico certainly find all this drug-related violence abhorrent, enough people don't. That suggests that the problem is not fundamentally political but cultural. There is a basic failure in the Mexican institutions that are supposed to transmit the right values from one generation to the next.

Thus I find that there is a problem with most big-picture policy analyses: culture is in most cases off the radar screen. I think a magazine like FP should try to find others who are not public policy experts but who have a mature perspective that can address important dimensions of the Mexican problem that policy specialists are likely to miss or be unfamiliar with.

 

OLD.FRT

12:06 AM ET

December 24, 2010

Overlooked considerations

The monies generated by the Cartels are substantially recycled into the Mexican economy as is the investment in extra hiring of personnel for drug suppression.

Both are considerable so there is no incentive to back off on either drug exports or diversion of money into general Mexican infrastructure.

Let's also add the poor pay structure of police, penal workers, and the judiciary, which leave them open to corruption and subversion.

A poor country generates its income any which way it can after all is said and done.

Finally, let's add a slightly counter-intuitive observation.

The larger part of Mexican society pays zero taxes--in effect, they have no skin in the game.

When all must pay something for civil society's features, perhaps they will demand a better edition of those features, not the least of which is personal security.

Hey, when the vast proportion of crimes are unreported, and those which are, are unsolved, why should anyone give a damn?

The mordita, the endemic and induced corruption, the never-ending demand for drugs from the US user population, the fundamental lack of civic concern, along with a legitimately wary approach to government--the PRI, the long running party after all which "owned" the government for rake offs--all of this militates against a Calderon victory.

Calderon's cajones would be better braced *against* the military solution and focused more tightly against those who benefit from the system as it exists.

I forgot; it is time to bring the Cartels into the tent, and kick the DC gringos out.

 

RKERG

2:40 AM ET

December 24, 2010

Please don't try to blame Mexicos problem on America.

America also shares a long border with Canada and yet our neighbors to the north are not plagued by narco-terrorists like Mexico. While it is true that a lot of the drugs from Mexico are consumed in America and a lot of the gangs guns come from America, it would be logistically, just as simple to export tons of drugs from Canada into America, if, Canada was a very corrupt and near lawless country, but, it isn't and, sadly, Mexico is.

 

MK1

10:51 PM ET

December 25, 2010

Who trakes the Blame

Usualy, who begins a problem is not the issue once it's set into motion. In this Drug War, though, it's trhe opposite-because the root of the problem is alive and growing.

Do you really think you can absolve yourself from what your addicts are doing to my country? Are you really thatinnocent-or that naive? or ignorant?

Canada is not drugland because its not the perfect land bridge to America's drug consumers because it's not that: IT IS NOT A LAND BRIDGE.

Drugs go through Mexico because it is cheaper, because it is closer to the producers, and because it is easier. Before you ask questions like "if it's us causing the problem, why isn't our other neighbor smuggling drugs too?", do consider geography. Believe it or not, it's important.

 

DAN REEDY

1:31 PM ET

December 24, 2010

Insititutions vs. Military Action

Mr. Casas-Zamora does an admirable job of considering the failures of Calderon's drug war, and provides some valuable recommendations for institutional reform. Mexican institutions lack more than just resources in combating the cartels; they lack effectiveness at a fundamental level, illustrated by the country's strikingly high impunity rate. Mexico cannot hope to tackle crime through military means alone, if there are no functioning systems in place to bring criminals to trial and hold them responsible for their actions.

However, despite Calderon's emphasized military successes against the drug cartels, he has also made a sustained effort towards reforming institutions and rooting out endemic corruption. Perhaps it is because he is finding the task of institutional reform more problematic and difficult that he hasn't made this more of an issue. Perhaps it is simply because it is harder to establish rigorous metrics for success, and victories are less visible and iconic than the capture of renowned drug lords.

Mistrust in institutions such as the police is ingrained from years of corruption alongside individual impunity from prosecution. Regaining public trust in these institutions will be a long and difficult process. The government's limited resources will allow corruption to continue to flourish, barring a dramatic new investment in the country's police, military, and judiciary. This scenario is unlikely. With continued corruption at the local level, it will be hard to convince people that these institutions are acting to protect them.

Backing down from military confrontation with the cartels is also not an entirely advisable scenario. The current war has exposed the extent of the trafficker's resources and destructive potential. Letting them regroup and rearm in the absence of a government crackdown would only make them more potent adversaries the next time a crackdown is attempted. Further, in the absence of strong institutions, the individuals responsible for the current violence will likely not be held accountable if not captured by the military. The Mexican government cannot now afford to 'go easy' on the traffickers.

A sustained, violent confrontation with drug traffickers will of course breed opposition, as what qualifies as a 'victory' is less than clear. Some may point to the Colombian government's ability to assert control over the country and reduce violence nationwide. However, Colombia's murder rate is still well above Mexico's, and the country remains the principal producer of cocaine worldwide. Drug trafficking is alive and well in Colombia.

Mexico needs to clarify what it hopes to achieve through the drug war. Perhaps most importantly, it should strive to achieve what Mr. Casas-Zamora argues is necessary in fighting this war: strong, effective institutions which are able to serve the Mexican population. A low impunity rate, a more well-trained and effective police force, and increased trust in law enforcement. This would be both the best way to take on drug trafficking, but also the most real, valuable result.

 

MK1

11:02 PM ET

December 25, 2010

Agreed

He does, really. That can only be someone who knows what drug problems really are talking.

I've lived in mexico my whole life, though, and the one flaw in this argument is that it's not just that we don't trust our legal and law enforcement system-it's that theyre not there at all.

From what I've seen so far of my country, there are two ways to live here-there's the higher classes, that avoid the police and slow courts everywhere we can, and there's the lower class-the one who are really helpless, because they remain ignorant of what the courts and the police should really do and how they should really treat them.

So it's not just distrust-it's that we've never known anything different than what we've had: a government so decentralized that when it's not corrupt officials without any leashes, it's courts so slow they are really just bureaucratic offices, or congressmen so unprepared no one canm get anything done. Our government is as divided as we, the mexican population are, and with no resources and populist idiots running amok, the institutions he talks about building trust in, they're not even there to begin with.

 

DAN REEDY

1:31 PM ET

December 24, 2010

Insititutions vs. Military Action

Mr. Casas-Zamora does an admirable job of considering the failures of Calderon's drug war, and provides some valuable recommendations for institutional reform. Mexican institutions lack more than just resources in combating the cartels; they lack effectiveness at a fundamental level, illustrated by the country's strikingly high impunity rate. Mexico cannot hope to tackle crime through military means alone, if there are no functioning systems in place to bring criminals to trial and hold them responsible for their actions.

However, despite Calderon's emphasized military successes against the drug cartels, he has also made a sustained effort towards reforming institutions and rooting out endemic corruption. Perhaps it is because he is finding the task of institutional reform more problematic and difficult that he hasn't made this more of an issue. Perhaps it is simply because it is harder to establish rigorous metrics for success, and victories are less visible and iconic than the capture of renowned drug lords.

Mistrust in institutions such as the police is ingrained from years of corruption alongside individual impunity from prosecution. Regaining public trust in these institutions will be a long and difficult process. The government's limited resources will allow corruption to continue to flourish, barring a dramatic new investment in the country's police, military, and judiciary. This scenario is unlikely. With continued corruption at the local level, it will be hard to convince people that these institutions are acting to protect them.

Backing down from military confrontation with the cartels is also not an entirely advisable scenario. The current war has exposed the extent of the trafficker's resources and destructive potential. Letting them regroup and rearm in the absence of a government crackdown would only make them more potent adversaries the next time a crackdown is attempted. Further, in the absence of strong institutions, the individuals responsible for the current violence will likely not be held accountable if not captured by the military. The Mexican government cannot now afford to 'go easy' on the traffickers.

A sustained, violent confrontation with drug traffickers will of course breed opposition, as what qualifies as a 'victory' is less than clear. Some may point to the Colombian government's ability to assert control over the country and reduce violence nationwide. However, Colombia's murder rate is still well above Mexico's, and the country remains the principal producer of cocaine worldwide. Drug trafficking is alive and well in Colombia.

Mexico needs to clarify what it hopes to achieve through the drug war. Perhaps most importantly, it should strive to achieve what Mr. Casas-Zamora argues is necessary in fighting this war: strong, effective institutions which are able to serve the Mexican population. A low impunity rate, a more well-trained and effective police force, and increased trust in law enforcement. This would be both the best way to take on drug trafficking, but also the most real, valuable result.

 

CASSANDRAAA

4:51 PM ET

December 24, 2010

How does a country do what

How does a country do what the author is recommending?

And as someone else has noted, the demand for drugs is in the United States and the source of many guns is in the United States. Instead of seeing this true threat to our vital interests, we are off busy blowing up Afghanistan and eager to expand into Pakistan and Iran.

Where ignorance is bliss, 'tis folly to be wise.

 

S.SAVIC

11:09 AM ET

December 26, 2010

I can`t dissaprove with an

I can`t dissaprove with an all out war against the drug cartels, even if the the costs are high. These costs are a short term side-effect, and the fact that they are short term is crucial. This type of offensive transcends current generations; however, its long term viability, unfortunately, lies outside it`s boarders. The drug trade is rampant only because of American demand. The US plays a crucial role in Mexico`s problems. This then demands the question: is the US willing to help Mexico? With this said, the drug and violence problem goes beyond what it is at the surface and spins off into the world of geopolitics and American assertiveness in Latin America.