The Great Food Crisis of 2011

It's real, and it's not going away anytime soon.

BY LESTER BROWN | JANUARY 10, 2011

The combined effect of these three growing demands is stunning: a doubling in the annual growth in world grain consumption from an average of 21 million tons per year in 1990-2005 to 41 million tons per year in 2005-2010. Most of this huge jump is attributable to the orgy of investment in ethanol distilleries in the United States in 2006-2008.

While the annual demand growth for grain was doubling, new constraints were emerging on the supply side, even as longstanding ones such as soil erosion intensified. An estimated one third of the world's cropland is losing topsoil faster than new soil is forming through natural processes -- and thus is losing its inherent productivity. Two huge dust bowls are forming, one across northwest China, western Mongolia, and central Asia; the other in central Africa. Each of these dwarfs the U.S. dust bowl of the 1930s.

Satellite images show a steady flow of dust storms leaving these regions, each one typically carrying millions of tons of precious topsoil. In North China, some 24,000 rural villages have been abandoned or partly depopulated as grasslands have been destroyed by overgrazing and as croplands have been inundated by migrating sand dunes.

In countries with severe soil erosion, such as Mongolia and Lesotho, grain harvests are shrinking as erosion lowers yields and eventually leads to cropland abandonment. The result is spreading hunger and growing dependence on imports. Haiti and North Korea, two countries with severely eroded soils, are chronically dependent on food aid from abroad.

Meanwhile aquifer depletion is fast shrinking the amount of irrigated area in many parts of the world; this relatively recent phenomenon is driven by the large-scale use of mechanical pumps to exploit underground water. Today, half the world's people live in countries where water tables are falling as overpumping depletes aquifers. Once an aquifer is depleted, pumping is necessarily reduced to the rate of recharge unless it is a fossil (nonreplenishable) aquifer, in which case pumping ends altogether. But sooner or later, falling water tables translate into rising food prices.

FETHI BELAID/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

 SUBJECTS:
 

Lester R. Brown is president of Earth Policy Institute and author of World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse.

RUSSELBERTRAND

3:07 PM ET

January 11, 2011

HELLO

NEWS FLASH William Forster Lloyd in 1833, and Garrett Hardin 1970 called this the Tragedy of the Commons. Welcome to the Party!

 

FIRST ADVISOR

5:44 PM ET

January 11, 2011

The Marching Morons, by Cyril Kornbluth, 1051

I was graduating from high school when 'The Population Bomb, by Paul Ehrlich, was published. It's hardly news to me, either, that the human species is stupid. Luckily, since I live in a well-off, comfortable, developed Western nation with abundant food resources, and am near the end of my lifespan, I have no reason to care. I can assure the writer of this opinion column that the old-fashioned, traditional methods of the Four Horsemen -- Death, War, Famine, and Plague -- are perfectly adequate and competent at dealing with these little difficulties he describes. That is, after all, what they are for. Tradition is a very reliable, trustworthy tool.

I'm sure mass starvation, constant warfare, global epidemics, and so on, will be very distressing and inconvenient for the people of the developed Western nations when the proper time comes for them, and I'm also certain the effect and influence of whatever happens on the other side of the world, and in the other, southern hemisphere. will only be an inconvenience, where I live. So I'm easily, calmly content to leave my descendents to watch the show from a distance. I'm sure, as well, the theater spectacle will be very exciting, thrilling entertainment.

 

MARLBOROJ

6:34 PM ET

January 11, 2011

You're far too sanguine

I was still in diapers when The Population Bomb came out. Ehrlich was wrong on his specific predictions, but his general thesis still remains valid, I think. I also think that old timers like me and you will be able to watch the entertainment. When it starts--and by all accounts it has indeed started--we all become caught in a self-reinforcing feedback loop and it just tends to snowball from there. And then most of us die. No one in any position of authority has exhibited any foresight to take corrective measures. Thus, as you point out, Mother Nature will gladly do it for us.

 

BUDDHA 4 A DAY

8:03 PM ET

January 11, 2011

We are all connected

I can definitely understand your attitude of disdain and apathy at the plight of the human species. I have to say that in my opinion, your attitude of selfishness is the same attitude which is at the root of all these problems. I suspect that deep down you really do care about other people, but feel helpless to do anything. It is a pretty hopeless situation no doubt.

But I believe that we will all create a future heaven or hell based solely on our willingness to help others or our propensity to only help ourselves. If we all (or even just most of us) decided that we really do care about others, and we started living our lives with that attitude, then our species would have a fighting chance to not only survive this coming tsunami, but we would in the end create a sustainable society which would be based on justice, mutual respect, and equality. If on the other hand, we, (as a species) continue with our self centered way of seeing the world, then we will definitely kill ourselves off.

I think in the end, it all boils down to, how much we really care about others. Whether we as individuals can keep our big capitalistic party going or not, doesn't matter. If we can see that others are human beings just like ourselves, and they want to live and be happy, just like ourselves, then we will have truly accomplished something good in our life.

I believe that this care for others is contagious, and is in the end will be exponentially transformative, so although it may seem like there is no use in even caring, there really is.

Also, If you think that just because we are wealthy compared to most of the rest of the world, and this wealth will save us from the pain thats coming, then think again. We are all connected, and we will all sink or swim together. So if you can find some way to start helping, then please do so. Sending money, to starving kids in Africa, or even just consuming less yourself can help. It will feel good to do that too. You may say, 'whats the point in trying?', but its just as easy to say, 'whats the point in giving up?' The path is far more important than the goal. Caring about others is the path. If we can do that, the goal will take care of itself.

 

SPEDMYSTER

9:25 PM ET

January 11, 2011

The college-age perspective

Yes and for those of us who are going to be performing in this theater spectacle that you'll be missing out on, I can honestly say that we're thrilled! What a blast it will be trying to correct the innumerable problems in this world caused by decades of short-sightedness. I can't wait to be dealing with continuing economic decline, tremendous resource strains, erratic and chaotic weather, and who knows what else.

Granted, not to be too sarcastic, I am aware that what is happening is really to be expected give natural human behavior, sociology, and economics. But at least I can naively hope that my generation will learn from at least some of the mistakes of former generations (of course only after their consequences have grossly manifested themselves) and that we can begin to shape a social structure that values humility, critical thinking, and a little bit more prudence. What else can we do?

 

BURG400

10:51 PM ET

January 11, 2011

A Marching Moron

While I'm sure it must be convenient to know you will likely not live long enough to see some of the effects of such crises, your lack of concern for your descendents is amusing. As with a previous comment this comes from a college age perspective and I can assure you it is wonderful to know my lifetime will be spend dealing with the carelessness of previous generations. While it is true that decades ago the world may have been unaware of many of the problems it would face that does not excuse these previous generations from merely relegating themselves to the sideline to 'watch' due to old age or retirement. The use of such excuses indicates that the same apathy and carelessness which led to such mistakes still persists in your generation. I also highly doubt the 'Four Horsemen' will spare your descendents because of where they live. I suggest you reconsider your positions on such matters before you die and rethink equating problems of warfare and starvation to entertainment.

 

FIRST ADVISOR

6:43 AM ET

January 12, 2011

Your Subject Title

You said it; I didn't. My descendents are easily capable of taking care of themselves. I'm calm and relaxed about the future because I know how competent and effective they are. It doesn't matter where they live; they will succeed whatever the circumstances of their environment.

 

AKFOURY

2:02 PM ET

January 12, 2011

Someone had a bad life...

Someone had a bad life...

 

SIMONSTEWART

5:15 PM ET

January 12, 2011

But what solution?

@FIRST ADVISOR: Thank you for that well thought-out and insightful comment. However, you don't give much indication of action. How about if we were to alleviate the problem by selectively removing some of the need for food? The generation that are now nearing retirement, in the west, have squandered a large portion of Earth's resources and appear the least grateful for it. It seems as though it would be a small inconvenience in order to reallocate a large portion of resources to more appropriate area (i.e. the younger generation in developing countries).
Instead of sitting around analytically watching swathes of children dying on the news while eating a steak dinner, it could be our generation's way of actively creating change

 

DETERMINEDREALIST

12:12 AM ET

January 19, 2011

So Delightfully Insightful

I must congratulate you on your insightful post. Perhaps the only point that was lacking is that the root problem is one of overpopulation.

The cure is of course to simply mandate euthanasia for all persons over 60, especially in developed nations. In such countries, the old eat up an inordinate share of resources via medical health insurance and retirement benefits while no longer being able to contribute to society.

The US and Europe are facing massive debt problems in the coming years because of their old, fat baby boomers. Rather than leaving it to natural forces--which would simply be disorderly and chaotic--a systematic and organised cull of the aged is in order. I trust you agree.

 

RACHAELR

8:59 PM ET

January 11, 2011

Start Growing Your Own Food - For Many Reasons

Regardless if a food crisis truly exists or the world is on the brink of one, there are MANY reasons to start growing your own food. These include health issues (eating more vegetables & fruits), rising food costs (especially for organic foods), "eating local", participating in sustainable lifestyle methods, genetically modified foods, avoiding food-borne illnesses, self-reliance and, just possibly, food shortages - if not now, in the future. Preparing and eating your own homegrown food also has a way of feeding the soul. Check out Urban Garden Solutions blog which which gives some pretty good information on small space gardening and growing food, especially for beginners. http://urbangardensolutions.wordpress.com

 

BARRY CARTER

1:32 PM ET

January 13, 2011

Dirt First!

Dear Friends,

If you wish to grow food, it is helpful to grow some dirt first. The best way I know to do this is to apply the ormus sea minerals to your soil. One farmer in Vermont has reported eight inches of new topsoil in one year using these minerals.

Ormus enhanced soil has grown tasty oranges the size of cantaloupes, walnuts the size of tennis balls, tasty grapes in mid winter in Amsterdam, two foot long carrots in Michigan and quadrupled the harvest of plums from the tree in my front yard.

These minerals have also allowed me to water my indoor plants once a month instead of twice a month while maintaining their exceptional health and growth.

Links to documentation of all of the above and the description of a cheap and simple way to concentrate the ormus minerals from sea salt or sea water can be found at:

http://www.subtleenergies.com/plant-lynx.htm

I cannot imagine a better and more humane solution to the combination of problems that Lester Brown describes in his article. Growing soil and doubling plant growth is the best option to sequester enough carbon to quickly stop global warming. Growing more food locally despite drought or unseasonable freezes is the best option to quickly reduce fossil fuel use and to help compensate for the loss of food purchasing power.

The best part is that this solution does not depend on existing corporate or government structures and can be implemented by anyone with access to wood ash and sea water or sea salt.

With kindest regards,
Barry Carter
bcarter at igc dot org

 

PRINCEFARR

7:10 AM ET

January 12, 2011

The decentralization of food production from the model of indust

The decentralization of food production from the model of industrial agriculture can help alleviate this situation. Instead of relying on someone else to produce their food elsewhere. Being active and involved in the supply of food to understand where it comes and take part in being responsible for its success. farm hand, localvores, etc. .. Great article!

microsoft mobile application development

 

RIHTER

9:04 AM ET

January 12, 2011

The Golden Rule

We are in a troubled state of affairs if a life an death situation for millions can be reduced to whether or not we care enough to make any effort of fixing our global crisis.

After reading several dialogs and debates on global crisis I have come to a conclusion. Most objections negative responses begin with I. While most positive responses begin with we.

Every dogma, faith, and belief system has some form of the golden rule. Even Machiavelli speaks in terms of the benefit of the State. We are a social animal, and we live in a global society regardless of perspective. Being apathetic or defeatist about our plight is akin to suicide.

"Do unto others as you would have them do unto you",
"Love thy neighbor as you would love yourself."
Wise words if we could just remember to live by them.

 

MAGISA

9:57 AM ET

January 12, 2011

Egad

We've seen this situation coming for a long time now. It looks like the storm clouds are gathering and it will be increasingly difficult to ignore world hunger. I'm 41 years old, with 3 children, and I worry about the future of our planet.
The only hope for the future of the planet is a serious curb on population growth.

 

THOMASFIORE

5:41 PM ET

January 12, 2011

What about Russia?

I agree with the central premise that for most of the world food production has plateaued, but I suspect that Russian farming infrastructure is still in sad shape and has a lot that can be done to increase productivity.

I also suspect that if this crisis does keep developing the way forecast here that the use of grain/corn for ethanol production will swiftly end in the US. Eliminating the subsidies that make ethanol production viable could be sold to the American people as deficit reduction, getting the farm sector off of welfare and getting the government out of a business where it doesn't belong; it could also very well be that the price that the farm sector can get for the crops as a food source will out bid the price for ethanol.

Not that this will help the situation much since we have basically populated the plant with humans beyond it's carrying capacity.

 

CRUSHSPREAD

11:09 AM ET

January 14, 2011

Thank you for posting one of

Thank you for posting one of the few educated comments here. Former Soviet Union has huge potential. UN specifically has talked about how Ukraine has the biggest gap between it's yield potential and it's current production. The infrastructure situation in FSU is bad and prevents high yields and makes it difficult for farmers to get good prices for their wheat which in turns means that they don't have money to invest in their farms.

Additionally you're right on in saying that political will for ethanol will evaporate if we do get this commodity crisis.

All this food crisis articles seem to assume inelastic demand for meat in emerging markets like China. Sure people in EM like switching to meat but they aren't going to if their food price inflation hits 30%.

Sure there are upside risks but this article is very one-sided.

 

SELIAG

3:24 PM ET

January 13, 2011

Raising Public Awareness

I am grateful to Lester Brown for once again endeavoring to raise public awareness about the need to protect, conserve and better manage the world's fresh water resources. Unfortunately too little attention is paid by our political leaders about the issues raised by Dr. Brown, and the American public in general remains too uninformed. Until the American public has a better understanding of the strategic linkages between, for example, the depletion of aquifer levels in China or India, and U.S. food security there will remain no public consensus for committing significant resources to take corrective action. Of couse, if the price of a loaf of bread in this country should suddenly skyrocket higher, the public will likely become engaged. But by then corrective action will likely be too late.

 

MARIAPAV

7:59 AM ET

January 25, 2011

I can't wait to be dealing

I can't wait to be dealing with continuing economic decline, tremendous resource strains, erratic and chaotic weather, and who knows what else. But I believe that we will all create a future heaven or hell based solely on our willingness to help others or our propensity cna to only help ourselves. If we all (or even just most of us) decided that we really do care about others, and we started living our lives with that attitude, then our species would have a fighting chance to not only survive this coming tsunami, but we would in the end create a sustainable society which would be based on justice, mutual respect, and equality. If on the other hand, we, (as a species) continue with our self centered way of seeing the world, then we will definitely kill ourselves off.