The Sick Man of the Middle East

Is Tunisia's strongman president about to fall?

BY BLAKE HOUNSHELL | JANUARY 12, 2011

At around 11 p.m. Tuesday, U.S. East Coast time, unconfirmed reports of a coup in Tunisia spread across Twitter like wildfire, fueled by a rumor mill that has gone into overdrive since riots broke out this month outside the Tunisian capital.

"Phone confirmation that the army has surrounded the ministry of interior," tweeted Wessim Amara, a user based in Tunisia. Another, Fouad Marei, followed: "Tweeps unanimously confirm: #coup against #BenAli regime. Mainstream media continues to talk of clashes, no confirmation of #SidiBouZid coup."

Neither was true -- there's no sign that President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has lost control of the country's all-powerful security services, though he did sack his interior minister and sent military troops into the streets of Tunis to restore order. But the fact that the rumor was making the rounds at all speaks volumes about how rapidly Tunisia has gone from Arab success story to Middle East sick man.

The riots, which erupted in mid-December after an underemployed university graduate named Mohamed Bouazizi lit himself on fire to protest his rough treatment at the hands of police, are the worst to hit the autocratic North African state in 26 years. So far, at least 35 people have been killed in the violence -- sparked by anger over high unemployment, political repression, and a general climate of despair -- and that's likely an understatement.

"It started with economic issues, but people are fed up with the authoritarian system," says Nabila Hamza, the Tunisian-born president of the Foundation for the Future, which funds civil society groups across the broader Middle East and North Africa.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. Tunisia has long been seen as a "moderate" Arab state, with sensible economic policies, decent government services, relatively enlightened policies toward women, and little habit of making trouble in the region. Tunisia's GDP has grown by about 5 percent annually, on average, for the last decade. In 2010, the World Economic Forum rated its economy No. 1 in Africa in terms of global competitiveness, scoring it highly on respect for property rights and corruption. The country rose six spots in Transparency International's 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index, putting it among Africa's top performers.

But that economic success has come at the hands of one of the Arab world's nastiest police states. Tunisia has had only two presidents in its nearly 55-year history. The current leader, Ben Ali, 74, came to power after a bloodless coup in 1987. In a laughably unfree and unfair 2009 election, he won a fifth term with 89.6 percent of the vote. There are no effective opposition parties in the country. "Independent journalists, human rights organizations, union organizers -- anyone who raises concerns about the government's actions -- find their actions tracked and their outspokenness punished," writes Human Rights Watch analyst Rasha Moumneh.

One curiously overlooked factor in Tunisia's unrest has been the impact of the WikiLeaks cables, which revealed the U.S. government's view of the president and his ruling circle as deeply corrupt. One prescient cable from June 2008 reads, "Whether it's cash, services, land, property, or yes, even your yacht, President Ben Ali's family is rumored to covet it and reportedly gets what it wants," and highlights growing frustration with the Tunisian regime, a "quasi-mafia" made up of Ben Ali's extended family. A more recent cable, from July 2009, bluntly states that Ben Ali has "lost touch with the Tunisian people" and describes the country as "a police state, with little freedom of expression or association, and serious human rights problems."

LIONEL BONAVENTURE/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: DEMOCRACY, NORTH AFRICA
 

Blake Hounshell is managing editor of Foreign Policy.

EDDY12

5:17 PM ET

January 12, 2011

More Information

A good collection of links to all the latest updates from Tunisia can be found here: http://libcom.org/news/protests-spread-tunisia-12012011

 

USAMA2

2:32 AM ET

January 13, 2011

Western Myopic View of Tunisia

Interesting how Western observations about Tunisia have so little insight or care into what Tunisian people think and feel.

I guess that's just the Western way.

But the Muslim perspective finds the regime to be evil, oppressive, representative of Western secular corruption. There have been many reports of Tunisian police beating and even raping women who wear veils.

A few years ago, Bin Ali cancelled hajj for Tunisians under the assumption that it would avoid swine flu epidemic suspected to spread during hajj. It turned out that only a handful of people had flu, and they caught it elsewhere. Tunisia also chose to alter the days of Ramadan, rather than comply with the global moonsighting. This too was quite obvious of Tunisia's waywardness.

Tunisia destroyed the Nahda Party, the largest Islamic political party. Its severely repressed all other Islamic movements, preferring to destroy all Islamic causes and identity in the name of secularism and democracy. But it gave rise to a secularized authoritarian regime that serves Western aim of suppressing Muslim ideas of liberation from Western control and influence.

The notion that Tunisia WAS a stable economy further suggests that Western ideas of capitlalism tolerate oppression, authoritarianism, corruption.

 

ALEX TROF

12:45 PM ET

January 13, 2011

Maybe

However, Turkey has undergone similar stage of dictatorship and forceful secularization under strict dictatorship and military rule. Would Turkey enjoy as much authority in the region and economic power as it does right now if it stayed conservatively Islamic?

 

JUAN67

3:47 PM ET

January 13, 2011

You are right Turkey went

You are right Turkey went through the same path , but let us not forget that the success that Turkey enjoy now is mainly came under the current gov which is by the way have deep Islamic roots.
A problem with many in the west is they now only one version of Islam, which is the corrupt one of Benladen.
I'm not surprise That ppl in the west refer to Tunisia as a success story, because in their eyes it is just nice beaches and hotels they visit in the summer.
Tunisia has the worst authoritarian regime in the region if not in the world, it is almost like North Korea but with western ideology.

 

DR.KISSINGER@YAHOO.COM

9:06 PM ET

January 13, 2011

to describe Tunisia negatively is not fair

"Arab world's nastiest police states." What is wrong with police states. The police states are all our allies. Egypt is a much bigger police state than Tunisia. We should Help Tunisian President and send in the drone to bomb the illegal protesters. Actually they are not protestors they are terrorists.
shalom dr.k.