Hu's Really in Control in China?

Are the generals -- or Beijing's new leader-in-waiting -- now running the show?

BY DREW THOMPSON | JANUARY 17, 2011

View a slide show of China's growing military power.

Images of China's newly unveiled stealth fighter -- designated the J-20 -- just prior to and during U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates's visit to Beijing last week underscored an uncomfortable aspect of an evolving U.S.-China relationship: Engagement is not winning over the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The drab gray stealth fighter scooting down the runway and flying over Chengdu hours before President Hu Jintao met Gates served as a clear reminder to the United States about the competitive, confrontational China that comprises one aspect of its rapid rise.

Meanwhile, Hu's upcoming visit to Washington this week will symbolize the cooperative nature of a bilateral relationship. Billions of dollars in two-way trade, investment, and planeloads full of students, tourists, business people, and officials flying between the two countries on a daily basis reminds us that we are clearly not facing a new Cold War with China.

However, China's assertive tone and confrontational approach toward neighbors and the United States over the past year raises questions about China's intent. Shortly after the J-20 took its first test flight in front of spectators lining the periphery of the airfield, Gates reportedly asked Hu about the fighter plane, only to be met with blank stares and confusion from both civilian and military officials in the room. Immediately after the meeting, speculation ran rampant that Hu had been unaware of the test flight.

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Before jumping to conclusions, however, let's remember that China's national security decision-making process is opaque, and so this worrisome disconnect -- who knew what when -- is difficult to ascertain with certainty. It is highly improbable that Hu was unaware of the development of this major military advancement. His role as chairman of the Central Military Commission ensures that he is well briefed about major programs, and he doubtlessly approves their large budgets. What is not known is how much oversight and control the central government leadership in Beijing had over the PLA's decision-making process that lead to highly visible tests at the Chengdu air base just as Gates was visiting China.

Similar questions have arisen in the past: On Jan. 11, 2007, China launched an anti-satellite weapon, destroying an aging Chinese satellite in low Earth orbit, but the Foreign Ministry did not publicly acknowledge the test for 12 days. In March 2009, according to the Pentagon, five Chinese civilian vessels "aggressively maneuvered in dangerously close proximity" to the USNS Impeccable, blocking its path and closing to within 25 feet while crew members tried to grapple electronic gear towed behind the U.S. ship. There are many more examples. In each instance, the question arose: Were these provocative confrontations ordered from the highest echelons in Beijing, or were they the result of overzealous local commanders or even the plane and boat drivers themselves? Do these incidents reflect an intentional pattern of growing Chinese assertiveness and a long-term strategy to ultimately confront the U.S. military? Or are these Chinese overreactions to U.S. technological dominance and what the Chinese perceive to be American provocations -- such as air and sea surveillance in international waters close to China's shores and the well-publicized deployments of the United States' most advanced submarines, ships, and jet fighters to bases in the western Pacific?

FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: CHINA, MILITARY
 

Drew Thompson is director of China studies and Starr senior fellow at the Nixon Center.

MARTY MARTEL

1:41 AM ET

January 18, 2011

Second cold war regardless of control in China

Giving a pass to China under the flimsy argument of weak Hu leadership only postpones the day of reckoning for U. S.

Such a pass does NOT stop increases in burgeoning Chinese forex reserves or ever-increasing US trade deficit in China’s favor or ever-increasing Chinese accumulations of US treasury bills.

5 trillion dollar industrial colossus China also has 3 trillion dollar forex reserves and 250 billion plus a year trade surplus with US. And China’s trade surplus with EU is even higher than that with US!

How far has China come since that 1972 Nixon embrace?

Afterall China was a pariah country in the world just like today’s North Korea until Nixon’s 1972 visit. All the West European and East Asian countries stayed away from China following the US lead until 1972 and embraced China after Nixon’s visit. While US would not give MFN status to Soviet Union (remember Jackson-Vanik amendment?) unless Russia shed Communism, it had no problem giving it to China’s Communist dictators with a capitalist mask. Trade with China expanded by leaps and bounds during 12 years of Republican rule beginning in 1981. After campaigning against butchers of Beijing in 1992 elections, even Bill Clinton became enthusiastic supporter of trade with China once he took lessons in foreign policy from Nixon in early 1993 during a special Whitehouse-arranged meeting. US also promoted China to a super power status by accepting it as a permanent UNSC member.

Had it not been for that Nixon embrace in 1972, China’s rise to super power status would have been far more slower with all the US, West European and East Asian markets closed to cheap Chinese products. Had it not been for that Nixon embrace, China’s technological progress would have been far slower in the absence of West’s technology transfers. Had it not been for that Nixon embrace, China’s military progress would have been far slower in the absence of huge forex reserves that China accumulated from the massive exports of cheap Chinese products and China used those forex reserves to acquire latest military technology.

Now China has US by the tail - US businesses are hooked to huge profits that cheap Chinese products generate for them as a walk through any Walmart, Home Depot, Sears and Macy’s filled with Chinese goods prove and US government is hooked to huge investments that China makes in US treasuries from the sales of cheap Chinese products to US businesses.

The second cold war has already started, this time between US and China. And if US had upper hand against Soviet Union in first cold war, then creditor China has upper hand against debtor US in this second cold war.

China’s rise to super power status to challenge US is a fitting monument to the much-celebrated far-sightedness of Nixon-Kissinger to embrace China to counter Soviet Union in 1972 just as 9/11 attacks is a fitting monument to Reagan embracing Islamic fundamentalists to counter Soviet Union in 1980s Afghanistan.

 

DAVIDPANELLA

2:24 AM ET

January 19, 2011

China is growing super power

China is growing super power in the world. It is spending a huge amount of money on acquiring military weapons which is real threat to the world peace.
Priozil

 

AJKO

6:50 AM ET

February 16, 2011

China partners

China is growing super power in the world. It is spending a huge amount of money on acquiring military weapons, Bill Clinton became enthusiastic supporter of trade with China, China’s rise to super power status would have been far more slower with all the US, West European and East Asian markets closed to cheap Chinese products - i think that the diplomacy is importat but all try to get most of goods, so they will find deal in every situations - thats too big economic partners, like sazky.