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FP Book Club: Peter Bergen's The Longest War

An FP discussion on counterterrorism expert Peter Bergen's latest book. A decade after 9/11, is the war on terrorism a war we can win?

JANUARY 17, 2011

FP's panel of experts and participants in the war on terrorism takes on Peter Bergen's major new book. Looking back on a decade of war between America and al Qaeda -- literally the longest war in America's history -- Bergen offers a damning, step-by-step assessment of how a shadowy, often misinformed enemy managed to pull the world's biggest superpower into a sometimes catastrophic and frequently damaging worldwide combat. So what have we learned from fighting this war? Bergen argues: Not as much as we should have.

A Majeed/AFP/Getty Images 

 

XTIANGODLOKI

1:58 PM ET

January 17, 2011

As long as people are desperate there will be terrorists

A higher employment rate is a lot more effective of a weapon to combat terrorism than using drones to bomb every suspected militant's home. The military solution towards battling terrorism therefore must be followed by a civilian solution to rebuild the country and confidence.

The problem of course is that the military solution is dismantling any good will which the civilian solution has generated.

 

CASSANDRAAA

3:22 PM ET

January 17, 2011

Actually it is 30 years

Actually it is 30 years, not 10 years, that we've been intervening and fighting in Afghanistan. And a good book for understanding the first 20+ years is Steve Coll's "Ghost Wars".

I take away two things from the 30 years of experience:

1. Our global imperial ambitions now coincide with a huge establishment for which war is very profitable, regardless of win or lose, whatever those terms may mean. And as typical imperialists, we have disdain for those whom we claim to be helping.

2. Our leadership in Washington is fragmented, with high turnover, and in many cases does not want to operate on the basis of facts, but prefers various comfortable fictions.

 

OLIVER CHETTLE

8:43 PM ET

January 17, 2011

"Osama bin Laden and his

"Osama bin Laden and his followers, of course, deserve no mercy," is the sort of thinking that creates war criminals. The Americans didn't charge into Germany and shoot every Nazi they could find, because to do so would have been evil.

Mercy is a fundamental human virtue. the practice of mercy, which in this context means treating people in accordance with international law, defines who we are. It isn't about what they are, it is about what we are. No cause must be allowed to degrade the morality of good men, because if it does, they are no longer good. If America doesn't follow those rules, it becomes evil itself.

 

HURRICANEWARNING

10:10 PM ET

January 21, 2011

maybe im reading this wrong

I can see "forgiving" and negotiating with the taliban, and any low level AQ terrorists that renounce violence and instead enter the political realm. However, UBL and his leadership must be found, processed, and executed. In the same way we prosecuted Nazi's, we should find and ultimately "fix" AQ senior leadership. Why exactly does UBL deserve mercy in your opinion? He certainly has done nothing to suggest he deserves our forgiveness. Im just curious as to why you might believe something like that? I mean, should we forgive murderers and pedophiles? Because UBL is one of the greatest mass murderers alive today...and probably, like many of his compatriots, a pedophile as well. im just saying...

 

OLIVER CHETTLE

9:13 PM ET

January 17, 2011

Of course casualties from

Of course casualties from terrorism are acceptable, given the alternatives. The harsh truth is that in the context of all the killing that has occurred in history, one 9/11 in the US every year would be quite a low casualty rate per capita. It would also be around one tenth of the number of people killed on America's roads each year.

The UK took casualties from Northern Ireland for decades without going crazy and shooting everything that moved in Ulster, or invading the Republic of Ireland. How would America have reacted to the same sort of problem? Probably in a way that would have produced at least ten times the total casualties. Of course at the time, as a non-participant that supposedly loathes terrorism, it reacted by sympathising with the IRA, and allowing them to raise funds in America.

The problem is that America's experience of history is so limited, that it has no ability to put things into context. Is is an adolescent nation, and assumes that everything that happens to it is unique and incredibly important. In the context of history, three thousand deaths is no excuse for destabilising the world. 9/11 took place in the middle of a war (the second Congo War) which killed over a thousand times as many people, but which America and most of the rest of the world managed to ignore almost entirely.

 

CYBERFOOL

10:11 AM ET

January 18, 2011

IRA

The IRA came very close to killing Caroline Kennedy (per the book Forever Young). Had they done that, US funding for the IRA would have stopped overnight. Thankfully there is peace in Ireland. But Af-Pak is 100 times bigger and the people have no sense of "normalicy" in a western sense. 30 year olds have only ever known war, real war, not the occasional car bomb.

 

CYBERFOOL

10:07 AM ET

January 18, 2011

Various Thoughts

I'm currently reading Bergen's "The Osama I Know" and find it quite interesting and well researched. I look forward to this book too.

The solution to indefinate detention requires no new law. All it needs is a determination that folks are POWs. We don't have to release them until the "war" is over and even then we don't have to turn them loose in the US, we repatriate them to their home country. Plenty of case law on that, follows UCMJ and totally within the Geneva Conventions, etc. The Bush admin had avoided the term so that they could torture these people. Now that we are not doing that we don't need to avoid the POW label.

 

CEOUNICOM

7:09 PM ET

January 23, 2011

re: J Thomas has a point...

""All it needs is a determination that folks are POWs.""

See, that's sort of the problem. Both with the "war" part, and the process for determining POW designations... so far its been a messy, mixed bag with no particular resolution to the issue in sight.

UCMJ and similar laws regarding POWs/Combatants rely on the legal framework based on a 'Declaration of War'. Given that we do not have a declaration by congress (we have a 'use of force' authorization), or any established framework or history of engaging non-state actors in an unlimited, open-ended capacity, there is certainly some question about the legal rationale for holding detainees in perpetuity without some process to determine whether they were/are in fact participants in groups we have designated enemy-combatants, or whether they committed acts we can prove identify them as such. Without requiring any demonstration of evidence or testimony to such effect, it creates a unsettling precedent that may in fact run afoul of our own UCMJ, or the Geneva Convention.

I'm not saying there's not a process that could be established that would normalize current and future prisoners under established law; its mostly that they either haven't tried, tried unsuccessfully, or randomly experimented with 'workarounds' that often run into unforseen legal conflicts. Specifically, the Hamdan Vs. Rumsfeld case in the Supreme Court.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamdan_v._Rumsfeld

Since Hamdan, many of the required 'trials' to determine status (e.g. 'Enemy', or 'Unlawful Enemy', or just 'whoops!') of detainees have been halted, and instead put in a legal limbo, where we claim we can't return them to their home countries out of fear they will be tortured, or summarily set free (as is in the case of ~100 Yemenis)...

The short summary to all this is that we haven't succeeded in establishing a process for dealing with these indefinite detentions, which neither comply with existing American law, or international conventions. We still seem to consider it a work in progress.

I am not any particular rabble-rousing advocate for the legal rights of battlefield detainees, but I am not going to pretend to be in denial of the law and the complications the situation has presented. If we want to continue to prosecute the war on terror, we are beholden to reconcile these issues both with US law, the UCMJ, and the Geneva convention. It is and will be difficult. So far our track record has been fairly embarrassing, and it is disappointing that the current attitude is 'don't try' because of fear of future embarrassments/complications. Obama came into office pledging both to close Guantanamo, and by implication, resolve these outstanding issues. Score so far on either count? = big, whopping Zero.

 

CYBERFOOL

10:16 AM ET

January 18, 2011

Indo-Pak

My sense is that Holbrooke's mission was doomed as soon as they pulled the Indo-Pak conflict out of his portfolio. If that conflict were to be settled, to which a reasonable agreement seems very doable (a dual soverenty arangment of the Kashmiri region or some sort of nominal independence) that would take away the desire of the Pak military & ISI to support Islamic militancy. I think everything in that region revolves around the Pakistanis fearing the Indians and doing all sorts of ultimately self-destructive things as a result of that fear.

 

SREEKANTH

1:30 PM ET

January 19, 2011

>>>I think everything in that

>>>I think everything in that region revolves around the Pakistanis fearing the Indians and doing all sorts of ultimately self-destructive things as a result of that fear

Then you haven't studied the history of that region. The feelings that Pak has about India are a mixture of fear, hatred and envy. Above all, India is just a bogey that the entrenched army-politician-landlord nexus uses in order to retain power.

Way back when, in 1947, there may have been a justified fear that India would try to turn back the clock and re-absorb Pak. At this point, nobody, not even the Hindutva parties, entertain any such ideas. But candidly, you can find plenty of Indians who will get behind the idea of punishing and humiliating Pak. This is a reasonable fear for Pak to have at this point, and it is within Pak's control to remove this fear : stop supporting cross-border terrorism, as most recently in the Mumbai terrorist incident.

At some point, Pak has to compare the economic and military trajectories of the respective parties, abandon their Punjabi-Pathan-Islamist arrogance, and live with the facts on the ground. But since the Pak army owns the country rather than the other way around, this realization has been slow to sink in

 

PLEAB

9:17 PM ET

January 18, 2011

Peter Bergen represents the values of the Establishment

Peter Begen has a serious conflict of interest. 9/11 made his career. He is, like so many of the other talking heads and spokespersons for the 'Establishmnet,' profiting from the continuing charade known as the 'War on Terror.' I am sick of it.

As of last year, current US spending related to the 'War on Terror' including future commitments, is now over 3 Trillion Dollars! (3 000 000 000 000). See the zeroes? How in God's name has chasing a few hundred Al Queda 'terrorists' resulted in the spending of so much money? Money that's being borrowed from China?!

The response to terrorism has the unique characteristic of feuling the problem it pruports to address. It's a perfect circle, generating massive benefits for a few people while the rest of us must pick up the tab.

Get your heads out of your asses America! Between this out of control expenditure and the bailout of Wall Street and other corporate crooks, you are guaranteed 50 years of massive tax increases that will be paid for by cutting the spending NECESSARY to sustain a middle class. Healthcare? HA! Social Security? Don't make me laugh. Proper treatment of returning soldiers? I will promise you, that spending is going, going, gone!

So the next time you see a homeless Veteran begging for change, think about Peter Bergen's boyish face as he delivers the message: Be Afraid! Be VERY affraid!

Either you are an Establisment wolf or a mindless, dumbed down, unemployed and terrified sheep.

You decide.

 

NEOLEFT

12:38 AM ET

January 19, 2011

Right on the money PLEAB

Bergen is indeed pure establishment. I saw in on John Stewart this week, and I got the feeling that not even he buys the propaganda he presents. He made the ridiculous argument that the war in Afghanistan is only costing 1% of GDP, therefore we can maintain it indefinitely, obviously ignoring the associated costs that go with such a war (ie. providing comprehensive health care and welfare for the hundreds of thousands of wounded vets).

Joseph Stiglitz explained in early 2008, that if the Iraq war were to end (immediate withdrawal), the cost of that war alone would be at least 3 trillion.

 

HURRICANEWARNING

10:20 PM ET

January 21, 2011

REALLY!!!???

Ok, i get it. You guys are edgy. Your liberals and intellectuals...impressive. However, at some point, you have to learn to at least respect and absorb certain very qualified peoples opinions. Peter Bergen is perhaps the most well respected academic in the world with regards to UBL, AQ and the AF/Pak situation. He knows more, and has far more experience than anyone on this board combined...so im just saying, considering his credentials, wouldnt it be wise to listen to what he has to say, instead of just dismissing him as "establishment" and assuming that somehow, in a completely impossible scenario, that you know better than him? Im just saying. What you are doing is akin to what climate change denialists do...even though the vast majority of scientists, and complete experts agree that it's happening...many unbelievably underqualified people somehow believe that they know better than those who have spent a lifetime studying such things. At some point, you have to trust something. And it's healthy to truly listen to all opinions, even ones that dont fit your own tidy narrative and beliefs.

 

CEOUNICOM

5:10 PM ET

January 23, 2011

'What might-have-been'...

...is a silly exercise.

The second thing is he tells us some about what he thinks should have happened instead. I don't see that there are any experts about that.

Nor should you expect any. These people are dealing with What Is. Not some fantasy about 'what could have been'. 'What If' is waste of time because all one can offer is mere speculation that requires no proof against reality. You can invest your own theoretical Right Thing To Do, and be pleased with it, but it only exists as a bit of (largely partisan) fantasy that satisfies your own personal POV. There is no utility in it or relevance to the current status-quo.

It IS important to examine decisions made that have led up to the current situation, but only insofar as they provide some insight as to what to do next. When debates about those past decisions only lead to impossible scenarios in the current context, then its just self-referential horn-honking.

Example = "we SHOULD have gotten Pakistan to shut down the border earlier, and cooperate with cornering/capturing AL Q during 2001-2002..."

Yes, sure. But: we tried, they didn't, we tried harder, they didn't, we tried harder, they sort of pretended to... up to the present.

One could argue all day long about the "should"; more important is, "Why can't we get them to do anything??" As in, right now?

That could fill a few books.

which leads me to ask... Is there a section of Bergen's TLW book focusing on US - Pakistan relations/failures? I would think that should be a central topic.

 

LITTLEMANTATE

9:53 PM ET

January 23, 2011

HURRICANEWARNING

Wouldn't you agree that at times learned voices have been wrong? What if the entire premise on which they are operating is wrong? Insofar as disregarding voices that don't fit into a tidy narrative is a justification for questioning the establishment.

I couldn't help but think of the character Dr. Baker in the movie the "Madness of King George", so dismissive of anyone not part of the official, blood-letting, humour-obsessed medical establishment of the day.

"Uh, Sir George.
- This is the King's water. - Well?
- It's blue. - So?
It's been blue since His Majesty's been ill.
Oh, God, another doctor.
Medicine is a science. It consists of observation.
Whether a man's water is blue or not
is neither here nor there."

"Pepys, this Willis.
Yes?
A dangerous man.
Is he?
Not a proper doctor.
Not a member of the Royal College of Physicians.
Wants us out, Pepys.
No.
We must stick together.
And remember, one voice.
- One voice. - One voice.
What kind of fellow is he?
Parson.
Quack.
Has some modern ideas.
He'll need watching.
I've heard very good things about him.
He does a lot of it with his eyes.
You mean he actually looks at the king?
Yes.
Damned impudence."

 

PLEAB

9:30 PM ET

January 18, 2011

Correction/Bergen

Yup, I'm angry. Didn't do much for my letter. Correction is to the 4th paragraph.

Get your heads out of your asses America! Between this out of control expenditure and the bailout of Wall Street and other corporate crooks, you are guaranteed 50 years of massive tax increases to cover a staggering debt while the spending NECESSARY to sustain a middle class disappears.Healthcare? HA! Social Security? Don't make me laugh. Proper treatment of returning soldiers? I will promise you, that spending is going, going, gone!

I don't mind restating the point.

 

MARTY MARTEL

6:20 AM ET

January 19, 2011

US chose to make this a 'longest loosing war'

US lost in Afghanistan the day Bush allowed Musharraf to spirit away by airlift hundreds, if not thousands, of Taliban operatives cornered by the advancing Northern Alliance in Kunduz in November, 2001. Pakistan relocated those Taliban cadres including Mullah Mohammed Omar in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan and Haqqani network (HQN) in North Waziristan from where Mullah Omar’s QST and Haqqani’s HQN have been planning raids in Afghanistan ever since.

US deliberately ignored Taliban’s Pakistani connections in fueling and sustaining Afghan insurgency as reported by Matt Waldman in ‘The sun in the sky‘ on 6/13/2010, corroborated by WikiLeaks leaks on 7/25/2010 and then further corroborated by Chris Alexander, Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005 and Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan from 2005 until 2009 in his article on 7/30/2010 titled ‘The huge scale of Pakistan‘s complicity‘.

As Afghan President Karzai told a news conference in Kabul on 7/29/2010 after WikiLeaks leaks, “The time has come for our international allies to know that the war against terrorism is not in Afghanistan’s homes and villages. But rather this war is in the sanctuaries, funding centers and training places of terrorism which are in Pakistan. Our international allies have the ability to destroy these Pakistani sanctuaries, but the question is why they are not doing it?“

Even Afghanistan’s national security advisor Rangin Dadfar Spanta has asked a similar question in a Washington Post article on 8/23/2010: “While we are losing dozens of men and women to terrorist attacks every day, the terrorists’ main mentor (Pakistan) continues to receive billions of dollars in aid and assistance. How is this fundamental contradiction justified? Despite facing a growing domestic terror threat, Pakistan “continues to provide sanctuary and support to the Quetta Shura, the Haqqani network, the Hekmatyar group and Al Qaeda. Dismantling the terrorist infrastructure “requires confronting the state of Pakistan that still sees terrorism as a strategic asset and foreign policy tool”.

All American officers in southern Afghanistan know that they can not prevail in the ongoing military operations, unless Taliban strongholds across the Durand Line in North Waziristan and Baluchistan are neutralized. Adm Mullen and Gen Patraeus evidently do not want to acknowledge that hard options have to be considered if their soldiers are not to die at the hands of radicals, armed and trained across the Durand Line.

For some diabolical reason, Gates, Mullen, Petraeus & Company has split the Taliban into the Afghan and Pakistani parts even though they are two peas of the same pod. The US military is going after the Pakistani Taliban, while it encourages the Pakistani intelligence to continue to shelter the entire top Afghan Taliban leadership in Baluchistan province. Mullah Muhammad Omar and other members of the Taliban's inner shura (council) have been ensconced for years in the Quetta area.

As General McChrystal reported in his assessment of August, 2009 to the President: ‘The Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) based in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan, is the No. 1 threat to US/NATO mission in Afghanistan. At the operational level, the Quetta Shura conducts a formal campaign review each winter, after which Mullah Mohammed Omar (Afghan Taliban Chief) announces his guidance and intent for the coming year‘.

However US drones have targeted militants in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), but not the Afghan Taliban leadership operating with impunity from Baluchistan. US ground-commando raids also have spared the Afghan Taliban's command-and-control network in Baluchistan.

For ignoring Pakistani duplicity, US deserves to be duped by Pakistan.

With an ally like Pakistan, US Afghan war was doomed to fail from the very beginning.

 

NICOLAS19

7:07 AM ET

January 19, 2011

same old story

Business is usual: just blame US failure on others!
- Installed a puppet government. It's not working. Who's to blame? The puppet, not the master of course!
- You've invaded a country and couldn't even occupy it properly in 10 years. Who's to blame? The neighbors! (let me remind you: Germany occupied whole Europe in four years and that was 70 years ago)
- You can't finance your two wars. The solution: start a third one!

My God, why the world's leading superpower has to be so stupid? I hope the next one (Chinese) will have more common sense.

 

DOMNULEDOCTOR

10:34 PM ET

January 19, 2011

Why I won't buy Bergen's book

I've read everything I could print out of Bergen's from the New America Foundation and I don't think he would have much to to say in a book, but I could be wrong. Nevertheless, there are a lot more reliable "experts" whose decades long intimate knowledge is far more reliable, in my opinion and I choose reading their works rather than Bergen's. Bergen's claim to fame is an interview with binLaden. I suggest people watch how "informative" it really was. As to the value of everything else of his I read I think it can all be summed up best in his performance in debate format supported by another non-substantive "expert" from the Petraeus Peanut Gallery of lovers of all wars on Muslims, Max Boot, debating against Mathew Hoh and Nir Rosen, two who really sought to know Afghanistan beyond the Petraeus military domestic psyops dribble. Watch the video, it speaks for itself:

http://intelligencesquaredus.org/index.php/past-debates/afghanistan/#dm-col-a

 

OLIVER CHETTLE

10:43 PM ET

January 19, 2011

The following text: "I

The following text:

"I happened to talk to the British official who interviewed absolutely everyone in the British Pakistani community about their co-religionists' role in the 7/7 London bombings. His bottom-line conclusion of their main motivation: "teenage rebellion gone ballistic." "

Would be funny if it wasn't maddeningly obtuse. A man who doesn't want to blame Islam for anything, talks to a man who represents an establishment incapable of admitting that Islam is to blame for anything, and gets a response which, while preposterous, is a version of what he wants to hear. He presents it as independent evidence.

Teenagers of all faiths and none rebel. 3% of young rebels in the UK not Muslim, but 100% of the young rebels who let off bombs are Muslim. Their religion has to have something to do with it.

 

SARFRAZ HUSSAIN NAQVI

1:30 AM ET

January 20, 2011

Rebellious ISLAM

ISLAM like all earlier Heavenly Religions (ways of life) stands hijacked by the followers of Satan. They do not mind (they rather love) operating in the garb of the Lovers of the Creator Lord. Sane humans (that are in majority in the world) have to stand up and exert in all possibly PEACEFUL manners to stem the tide of intolerance perpetuated by the follower of Satan.
Who ever thinks that he or she does not belong to the group of the follower of Satan MUST start exerting in the right way within the sphere of influence of his or her life. I assure you things can be alright within months.
We do not need elaborate programs but only to work for PEACE and LOVE amongst humankind and stop tolerating all those actions that go against these two words (Peace and Love).

 

HUGH POPE

12:05 PM ET

January 20, 2011

Islam and suicide bombing

In my Book Club posting, I am not saying Islam is not responsible for anything; I’m just saying how wrong it is to blame it for everything.

Bombings of civilians are certainly no monopoly of Islam: a generation ago Irish Christians were busily setting off bombs in London. The cult of suicide bombing has taken grip in the Middle East, and it’s certainly a perverted doctrine. But again, not a Muslim monopoly: ask the Sri Lankans.

Just as much as Islamist terrorist groups (whose members are a miniscule proportion of all Muslims, to follow your statistical example), parts of the poisonous cocktail that can produce suicide bombers include oppressive political regimes, traumatized social context and a history of impotence against powerful foreign invaders. Take a look at the photo on page 65 of my book Dining with al-Qaeda. It shows Hamas graffiti in Gaza showing the Palestinian suicide bombing of an Israeli bus. Next to it is the caption: not “72 virgins in paradise” but the single word, "Revenge."

A third question, of why volunteers for this death cult to catch on among members of relatively prosperous, middle class Muslim families -- in Saudi Arabia just as much as the West – doubtless has several answers. I accept that one is Peter Bergen’s argument that the charisma organizational skills of Ben Laden and al-Qaeda. Another may be the alienation of Muslim communities in Western society. Another may be that education, leisure and the internet has given such people more opportunity to think about the injustices of their homelands.

The way to deal with any of these issues is not to brand "Islam" as the catch-all enemy. Surely the right way forward is better policies in the Middle East (e.g. do not invade countries on trumped-up ideological whims, as Bergen’s book shows) and to stay loyal to universal values shared with Muslim communities everywhere.

 

SARFRAZ HUSSAIN NAQVI

1:15 AM ET

January 20, 2011

War, Peace and Economy

ECONOMY can grow better in PEACE than in WAR. If this nine word sentence can be grasped by the LOVERS of good ECONOMY then everywhere everything will be just fine. So simple BUT so difficult to grasp and act on.

 

MARTY MARTEL

7:58 AM ET

January 20, 2011

Taliban survived to fight another day because....

Bottom line is Taliban survived to fight another day because Bush allowed Musharraf to spirit away by airlift hundreds, if not thousands, of Taliban operatives cornered by the advancing Northern Alliance in Kunduz in November, 2001. Pakistan relocated those Taliban cadres including Mullah Mohammed Omar in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan and Haqqani network (HQN) in North Waziristan from where Mullah Omar’s QST and Haqqani’s HQN have been planning raids in Afghanistan ever since.

And US military is continuing that Bush fallacy by allowing Mullah Omar to mount a successful Taliban insurgency from their hideouts previously located in Quetta, Baluchistan but now moved by Pakistani ISI to Karachi to escape possible US drone attacks on Quetta.

 

HUGH POPE

12:55 PM ET

January 20, 2011

Iraq War motivation - where does Israel fit in?

Tom Ricks issues a challenge for questions: I have one for him and Peter Bergen. It relates to US motivations for the Iraq war.

Reporting from Baghdad prior to the invasion for the news pages Wall Street Journal, I was acutely conscious that my efforts were completely overwhelmed by articles on the op-ed pages urging the US to go to war against Iraq. These were very often by leading Israelis: Ariel Sharon, Natan Sharansky, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Olmert and so on. Indeed, Israel is one of the very few states in the world that actually shared the Bush administration idea that removing Saddam Hussein was a strategic priority.

As a motive for the Iraq war, Bergen primarily suggests, undoubtedly correctly, that President Bush wanted to do Iraq for the supposed "demonstration effect" it would have against terrorists everywhere (chiefly because of the supposed alliance between Saddam and Bin Laden, and the supposed Iraqi WMD). This is the ‘beat them and they’ll back off’ approach, well exemplified in that apparently home-grown and utterly implausible film, ‘The Hurt Locker’.

Bergen also cites Wolfowitz's claim as the tanks rolled towards Baghdad that the Iraq war would pay for itself, but doesn't mention any U.S. ambition to seize or control Iraqi oil interests. I think it may have played a role: one of my contacts tells friends he was escorted out of Cheney’s office for daring to suggest that an assault on Iraq would trigger civil war and would minimize any oil-field winning benefit for the U.S.; another listened to Chief of Staff Tommy Franks tell a New York business big shots’ dinner that he saw his mission in invading Iraq as clearing the way for them to come in as a second, profit-spinning wave.

But when I remember the atmosphere in 2002, I can’t forget the pressure from Israeli leaders, and Israel’s close allies in the US, for an Iraq war. So, Washington experts, please tell us: compared to the domestic dynamics, did Israeli thinking have any weight?

 

TOM RICKS

2:51 PM ET

January 20, 2011

Not what I remember

What I remember was Israelis saying that Iran was the long-term threat in the region, not Iraq.

But at any rate, I don't think Israel loomed that large in the Washington discussion. It was a screwy, panicky time. And once the vice president said there was "no doubt" that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, the discussion was pretty much over.

Best,
Tom

 

DOUGALDER

11:01 AM ET

January 21, 2011

Ridiculous Question

You can only "win" a war if the enemy is readily identifiable. War is a profitable business for the MIC - as DDE warned everyone about in his last speech. While 9/11 rightfully angered the American public and created a blood lust for revenge, anyone who thinks the war in Afghanistan is really about fin din bin Laden and beating the Taliban has their head firmly planted where the sun don't shine. Just like Iraq where the war was really about oil (and GWB one-upping his old man) Afghanistan is all about strategic resources and keeping them out of the hands of China. In the case of Afghanistan, aside from the trillion dollar mineral surprise suddenly "discovered" late last year, there's the need for transporting Caspian see natural gas (say hello to BP) across Afghanistan and into Pakistan then India, keeping it out of the control of China and Russia. When the Taliban didn't play ball with the western oil companies 9/11 provided the necessary cover for ousting them and starting the deal over again. Read about the TAPI (trans-Afghanistan pipeline) project's history at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Afghanistan_Pipeline

let's also not forget that a terrorist is anyone the current government says it is.

 

LAZLO JAMF

1:20 PM ET

January 21, 2011

Command Influence on Intel & Folklore

Consider the affect Command exerts on the intel product it wants delivered. Not only is the intel collector required to structure the raw data into a framework Command can digest, the intel collector is pressured into providing Command with a product that pleases Command enough to consider promoting the intel collector up the food chain. The consequence is Command understands a conflict only through a mythology woven with nuggets of truth, nuggets that can be independently verified through other channels. The story has to ring true, providing explanations for the variables in question, but the intel is disconnected from reality. [Think Zeus and other explanations for natural phenomenon.]

Now consider the Afghan Conflict: Bergen has his story, the Pentagon has their story, and a Pashtun teenager has his. Whose story provides a better explanation for the day-to-day engagements? Whose myth has a better chance of influencing in-theater actors? A typical serviceman barely knows why he is fighting in the first place. The pashtun teenager is probably more confident with his myth even if he has been lied to by his elders with a story unsupported in empirical fact.

Our myth has to not only be compatible with the enemy's myth, our myth has to subvert the enemy's myth, deconstruct the enemy's myth, and replace the narrative with a truth that allows the enemy to put down his weapon. Terrorism is completely alien to the people we are engaging. A sovereign Afghanistan without terrorist actors is possible but it must be coded in a language that can be understood. This is not Psy-ops, it is engaging with what makes a human being do what he does, fear what he does, and live the way he lives.

 

BLAKE HALL

1:25 AM ET

January 22, 2011

A Quick Response

Peter, I don't think 2008 is the right time to judge the "catch and release" question for it is an exceptional period. The crux of my point in my essay was that the prisoner releases finally were OK after the Sunni Awakening because the tribes had turned against Al-Qaida. So the released fighters, largely nationalists anyway, laid down their arms when they got out. Certainly General Stone should be credited for recognizing this shift and for accelerating the prisoner releases in 2008.

Having said that, before the Sunni Awakening, the revolving door into and out of the prison system resulted in more American deaths. The points you raised, to me, are failures to properly vet detainees and run the detention system which is what I was getting after. And, I would note, it doesn't matter as much if detainees are radicalized if they are prisoners of war and kept in jail.

If the Sons of Iraq didn't do our dirty work, we would not have achieved what we have in Iraq. Moving forward to Afghanistan, I think that if we kept all the jihadists in jail, then we could make headway with the security situation, potentially broker deals with the tribes, decouple Al-Qaida from the Taliban, and only then release prisoners once the tribes are ready to receive them.

My $.02

 

LITTLEMANTATE

10:58 PM ET

January 23, 2011

Could the Taliban return to power?

First,

A return of the Taliban to power would prove a disastrous event for Afghans. Yet I'm at a loss to explain how Americans as yet unborn are responsible for preventing this. I say as yet unborn because the current generation of American adults is unwilling to pay for these wars. If Afghans are unwilling to defend themselves against the Taliban, I don't know why the world community is obliged to provide them with defense, in many cases against their own kinsmen. Inexcusable amounts of money have been siphoned off from foreign aid by corrupt Westerners and Afghans. That said, societies in far worse straights, with far less help, have, in the past, defended themselves and fought for their own rights. I must agree with Mr. Pope, to what extent do the goals of rural, male Pashtuns differ from the Taliban? Are we fighting a bunch of Islamist maoists on the behalf of a more traditional, but almost as oppressive, gerontocratic, patriarchal system? All this tea-drinking with maliks, somehow, doesn't quite jive with talk of female empowerment.

Regarding a victory for radical Islamists, the US has little to complain about that post Afghan-Soviet War and the Balkans, we certainly aided and abetted Osma et al. But a victory for radical Islam would not prove an existential threat to the US.

The biggest issue is the blow to US prestige, and, potentially, the status quo. That's really what matters for most thinkers and policy makers. Ideology, institutional loyalties, Afghan women, national mythos, careers, and investments, in no certain order, all stand to suffer if the Taliban would come back to power. But I ask, could they control the country? Really?

 

SHAMS ZAMAN

11:31 AM ET

January 24, 2011

There are some quotes which I

There are some quotes which I am not sure belongs to whom but are perfectly relevant to USA policy matrix:
"Ideologies can never be defeated by use of physical force."
"Don't fight an ideological enemy if you don't have a superior ideology."
Probably Toynbee said a very interesting thing which I would slightly rephrase in my own words: "The on lesson which we learnt from history is that we never learn from history."
All these quotes perfectly applies to USA. USA is fighting a force which although has not a very superior ideology but its ideology is superior to that of US. US perceives itself to be the liberator of Kuwait but most Muslim see US as a crusading force occupying gulf for oil and protection of Israel. With the same liberating sentiments USA invaded Iraq and the result is in front of us Al-qaeda has very intelligently (although at a great cost of Muslim blood transformed America into an imperialistic power obsessed with insecurity and becoming a sort of Nazi state). The measures adopted by USA in the name of security and terror threat are in sharp contrast with the liberal values preached by the west. America is no more a land of free but terror hyped state. USA has to only blame itself and its policies for this type of a situation. Due to the arrogance of power Americans see only a military solution for most of the problems. A-Qaeda is no more an Osama bin laden organization rather it has transformed into a much wider concept including sentiments of hate against the west especially USA, coupled with religious sentiments and a motivation of revenge. I recall a video seeing an eleven years Iraqi child weeping and saying "look USA has destroyed our country and when we grow we would God willing destroy America". So you don't have to blame Osama bin Laden because George Bush has done a much better job than him for recruiting a complete new generation . That is the reason I cannot agree at all with Blake Hall quoting Bergen: "Al-Qaeda todays faces an existential threat."
Blake also says:
"But it leaves me with the aching realizations that maybe we did not need to suffer as much as we have and that more suffering is ahead." I think he is wrong because the seeds of hate and revenge which were sowed by Bush have still to show up the complete "benefits" or consequences.
I don't agree with Bergen assertion that coming back of Taliban would be a complete fiasco. I think Afghanistan would be in a much better state under Taliban, than what it is today.
Another point which is wrongly quoted by Bergen is bringing all the militant organizations under al-Qaeda like LET. He must know that LET is a Salfi inspired militant organization while Taliban are from Deoband school of thought who are not comfortable with each other. According to one of my source even LET had offered to fight the TTP in tribal areas once the wave of suicide bombing were sweeping across Pakistan but was turned down due to fear that the tribal areas could become a lot messier in such a scenario. So it is wrong to group all militant organisations under the banner of Al-Qaeda. They are different and share different ideologies.
I almost agree with Hugh Pope on all the points except for one. Some how I am addicted to Bernard Lewis because while sharing a totally different ideology, I completely respect him. I think he is honest and straight forward. I rarely misses his book on the shelf.
Shams Zaman Pakistan - smszmn72@yahoo.com

 

DOMNULEDOCTOR

8:52 PM ET

January 24, 2011

Correction: I WILL BUY & READ BERGEN'S BOOK!

One invariably wonders if it’s that much fun reading a story whose end you know because the author constantly repeats it. And then is it worth reading the writings of someone who went from media to propaganda?

I'm reading Scheuer's study of binLaden because this CIA specialist studied binLaden through intel and has provided his superiors with analysis constantly as a living. So, I’ll either learn something about binLaden or, if it’s that bad a book, I’ll see why we never got him

Now, hearing Bergen ONCE AGAIN introduced as having "interviewed binLaden," I can't help wondering how serious he is given that such an interview was useless, except for Bergen’s CNN career. Media people usually have a lot of experiences that are unique: Kunno Knobel's long stay with Viet Cong units, for example, was invaluable to mine. But that's not what Bergen did. It is what Nir Rosen did, yet Rosen was not asked to review the book. Why?

Then Bergen tells us what an encyclopedic tome he wrote until he realized that it's like reading Schopenhauer to us geese so he cut it down to fit our cerebral limits. Now that makes me suspect that Bergen is telling me: if you don't like my book it is because you're all birdbrains. Usually, only geniuses or birdbrains tell you that and he’s clearly no genius!

Well, after some re-thinking, I concluded that I must shell out the cash and time for the book. But I must admit that Bergen is his own worse enemy for he acts more like a professing professor talking down in affectation than a discussant trying to come to terms with an inscrutable reality perplexing us all. Koll also wrote a doorstopper book on Afghanistan and, compiling +s and -s one definitely get his money's worth from it. Koll never hawked his book as did Bergen. So I would suggest that rather than line up the confederates from his shop to ballyhoo his book, Bergen would do well to engage in more substantive discourse so people can conclude: clearly this guy's got no more answers than anyone else…but his style-- like Koll's-- could well make him a storehouse of perceptions and cognitions worth struggling with. After all, even if he had published his "door stop" book I would have read it, for we are losing this war and any perspective that's still positive in the end for sound reasons (as opposed to the BS of the Petraeus Peanut Gallery) is worth reading. It’s the least we could do given what our kids are doing out there convinced that they're doing it for us.

Next time, Mr. Bergen, don't come on like you're the Messiah. Be more of a journalist like Koll instead of the chief of a gang of hawkers and we who deeply care will take you far more seriously. So, I will indeed buy and read your book and WILL INDEED confront you with my impressions, Mr. Bergen, if it’s clear that you really tried to be helpful. The reason is simple: I'm trying to find a way out of defeat, destruction and exsanguinations for our nation. Having survived 9/11, I’d rather not see a repeat of Vietnam blunders right to our running out. I pray you make a good case, not just a Petraeus Peanut Gallery one.

 

DOMNULEDOCTOR

5:31 PM ET

January 26, 2011

Apology to Peter Bergen and endorsement of his book

One should never judge a book by its cover, nor a writer by his/her affectations. Bergen may be a rather non-substantive debater but today I saw him interviewed by Travis Smiley and he struck me as a man who is genuinely concerned and who devoted his life to this issue. The book is clearly a struggle rather than a harangue-- as, alas, are many of his performances. Truth is he is trying to see this nightmare for what it is and to take the reader on his strenuous journey.

I cannot agree with him on much, but can say with certainty from reading parts of his book, that he is as honorable a searcher for truth as is Scheuer. Both men are Americans struggling with the issue of terrorism and how America MUST deal with it. As a survivor of 9/11, this book, unlike Bergen's previous works, makes me feel that, like us incidentally caught up in a horrible historic even, he seeks to understand it and then set things right. As I said, I disagree with much of what he wrote; yet, HIS BOOK NEVER DID ANYTHING BUT PROVOKE ME TO REVISIT MY VIEWS AND RETHINK THEM. Such men are rare, their sincerity and determination to understand contagious.

I retired from healthcare to meet the obligation I felt to write a history of the Vietnam War-- from the perspective of both Vietnamese sides as I got to see them…in a way that is fair to all the dead and forever maimed. On 9/11 I was on my way to pick up an order of books from the WTC Borders' bookstore that had just arrived. Obviously, my Vietnam obsession had to be laid aside in deference for all those who died in the WTC while I escaped (even though on crutches). I've developed, I think, a sixth sense for fellow travelers who are on the same quest to understand a tragedy they lived through and to pass on that understanding. Unlike Mr. Bergen, I suffer the extra rage that I despise Americans for disconnecting from the concern that obsesses both Mr. Bergen and me on grounds that "ain't my kid going to war," That, of course is not a productive emotional block. But when you see a shameless repeat of errors you suffered through, one generation later, you get enraged. As a result, I sought at the very least the teach-ins’ MEANINGFUL DIALOGUE at universities that we had during the Vietnam War. But now THERE IS NO DRAFT AS THEN so academics don't give a damn, only asking, as usual: what's in it for me?

Bergen is clearly not of that genre and I must beg his forgiveness for suspecting him. How a person writes usually makes obvious what drives him. Bergen is clearly an obsessive seeking both dialogue and the best answer. It remains for the rest of s not to confuse intensity with exhibitionism. He is very obviously not a Petraeus Peanut Gallery "expert" but rather a true searcher of truth. I can only hope he forgives me for misjudging him, should my past criticism have ever bothered him.