Poor people borrow and lend to survive -- but one of their biggest problems is that no one wants to help them do it. Portfolios of the Poor, a recent book by four finance experts who studied the financial dealings of poor households over the course of a year, concludes that "at almost every turn poor households are frustrated by the poor quality -- above all the low reliability -- of the instruments that they use to manage their meager incomes." Some poor households even pay fees in order to save: In West Africa, susus, or roving deposit collectors, will collect money every day for a month and then give back the deposits minus one day's worth.
The much-ballyhooed microfinance organizations such as Grameen Bank have an important role to play in filling the gap, but it's not necessarily a huge one. After a decade of extraordinarily rapid growth, there were only about 154 million microfinance clients worldwide at the end of 2008 -- around 130 million future customers were born that same year alone. (A spate of recent microfinance-related scandals in India and Bangladesh has also begun to tarnish the industry's reputation.) There are still 2.5 billion adults with no access to formal financial services, including 80 percent of adults in sub-Saharan Africa.
That means that if we want more access, it has to be delivered by the traditional banking sector. The challenge is that it makes no commercial sense to open a branch in a slum that spends all day trafficking in exchanges measured in cents (which is one reason why microfinance took off in the first place). In India, four people in five who signed up for basic traditional bank accounts aimed especially at the poor said they would need to spend half a day's wages and an entire day just to reach the nearest bank branch and make a transaction.
That is why technologies that allow banking without the need for a bank branch are so revolutionary. Take Kenya's M-Pesa, a money-transfer service that works over the mobile-phone network and has turned 16,900 phone vendors into banking agents -- this in a country with fewer than 1,500 physical bank branches. M-Pesa currently has 11.9 million customers, equal to about 54 percent of Kenya's adult population, according to a recent study by Ignacio Mas and Daniel Radcliffe of the Gates Foundation. Not surprisingly, when banks outsource service provision to street vendors, their costs drop dramatically. Pakistan's Tameer Microfinance Bank found that the capital and operating costs for a vendor/agent were 76 times less than for its microfinance branches in the first year, and 89 times cheaper over five years.
The affordability and reach of electronic systems supported by vendors means it is now plausible to imagine universal access to basic financial services. There are already 20 times as many point-of-sales terminals -- phone-connected readers in stores that take a credit card -- than banks in the developing world. And Kenya's experience suggests that in a very short time it should be possible to get to ubiquitous financial access using mobile networks. There were 4 billion mobile subscribers worldwide in 2008. The global population over age 15 is only 4.9 billion.