While You Were Reading About Ukrainian Nurses …

Real news was buried in WikiLeaks -- like this revealing cable on Iran's nuclear ambitions.

BY GARY SICK | JANUARY 19, 2011

For nearly eight years of my life, I read State Department cable traffic -- mostly dealing with Iran and the Middle East -- on a daily basis. Regular readers of cables from the field have at least one advantage when encountering WikiLeaks: They are less distracted by the voyeuristic aspects. There is a certain titillation involved in reading other people's mail or listening secretly to their private conversations, but after enough exposure the thrill diminishes. In time, one must ask oneself what any of this actually means in terms of policy. Often the answer is: "Not very much."

It's now conventional wisdom that the WikiLeaked cables, too, didn't have much new to say. But not everything should be so easily dismissed -- and among the thousands of cables that have come out, even beyond the few to make the front page, there are still some fascinating nuggets. What do State Department officials really say to each other about policy when they think no outsiders are listening?

We have learned that officials at the U.S. Embassy in Tunis were scathing and contemptuous about the Tunisian government, even as it was touted as one of America's authoritarian allies in the Arab world. They didn't predict the Tunisian revolution, but they at least understood where it was coming from.

But they are not always so prescient. Take, for example, the notes of a conversation between U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Ankara on Nov. 12, 2009.

Six weeks earlier, Iran had tentatively agreed to export 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to Russia, where it would be enriched to nearly 20 percent and then shipped to France to be fabricated into plates. Eventually, it was to be returned to Iran to fuel its research reactor in Tehran, which produces isotopes for medical purposes. Although the details were a bit complex, the deal was a classic bargain: Iran would get fuel for its reactor (and tacit acceptance of its enrichment program), and the West would ensure Iran's stash of low-enriched uranium was reduced below the amount necessary to produce a nuclear weapon.

But the Iranian negotiators ran into a backlash at home from conservatives, fueled in part by ill-advised European boasts that the deal represented a victory over Iran. So Iran backtracked, insisting its low-enriched uranium could only be relinquished at the moment the fuel assemblies were provided. This led to a range of alternative proposals, in which Turkey came to play a critical role as an intermediary between Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the major parties to the negotiation.

In the November cable, Davutoglu, coming fresh from two long "harsh" sessions with the Iranians in Istanbul, gave Gordon quite an unusual picture of what was really going on in Iran. Based on their very candid discussions, the Turks saw Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as "more flexible" on this issue than others inside the Iranian government but still under "huge pressure" from conservatives. Despite all the bad blood, the Iranians told the Turks that they would prefer to get the reactor fuel directly from the United States rather than from Russia and that they trusted the Americans more than the British. The Turks asked Ahmadinejad point blank if the core of the issue was psychological rather than substance. Ahmadinejad said that it was, yes, basically a matter of public perception.

ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images

 

Gary Sick teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and served on the U.S. National Security Council under Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan.

HASS

11:00 PM ET

January 19, 2011

but WHY did the US refuse to take yes for an answer?

If the Turks and Brazilians "believed that they were operating with U.S. approval" it was quite reasonably because Obama sent a letter to them specifically giving that impression as the Leveretts have pointed out. And when the Iranians agreed to allow their uranium to be shipped out with nothing more than bare promises that they would ever get any fuel in return, the Obama administration added a last-minute, deal-killing demand that Iran also abandon enrichment -- something that was never part of the original bargain. Nor was this the first time that the US has either ignored or actively torpedoed potential resolutions to the Iran nuclear dispute.

Conclusion: the US is not really interested in resolving this conflict but in fact is engaged in a game of "rope-a-dope" and is using the nuclear issue as a pretext, just as WMDs in Iraq were a pretext.

 

HASS

11:05 PM ET

January 19, 2011

So the Iranians were right

Oh and incidentally, this also shows that the Iranians were right in being initially reluctant to accept the deal (however they did not "backtrack" on it because they only accepted the deal in "draft" form, and "in principle".)

 

TABRIZIAN

11:46 PM ET

January 19, 2011

Advice to Hass

You seem to spend all your days on the Internet writing comments in defense of the Iranian government. You never make much forward progress because of your acid tone and the fact that you're defending a system which you yourself have little affinity for (hence you live in NYC rather than Tehran). You've been doing this the last decade. 10 to 20 years from now may look back and think to yourself that your time and first class education (NYU law school) would have been much better spent doing other things. Just keepin it real.

your fellow NY friend.

 

PLEAB

3:57 AM ET

January 21, 2011

Tabrizian

Can one be against crimminal regimes in both Tehran and Tel Aviv?

You see Tabrizian, when the Israelis are finished with their tools, they cast them into the sea.

 

NICOLAS19

3:59 AM ET

January 20, 2011

"ill advised European boasts"

How sweet... Let me remind you that it was White House press secretary Robert Gibbs who made the idiotic statement that the steps Iran was about to take - the very steps that proved the peaceful nature of their enrichment by stripping them from proliferation capability - wouldn't change the US sanctions for uranium enrichment.

That further confirmed the already clear fact that the US doesn't care one bit about Iran's supposed nuclear program, they just want to use it as constant casus belli, a la the WMDs in Iraq.

 

FISH

9:54 AM ET

January 20, 2011

Casus

Casus belli.....correcto!!!!!

all in an effort to gain the resource lacking at the moment....

OIL....

How about this as an act of peace/friendship perhaps...

"we will give you some oil - plenty infact...if you let us make a bomb for the first time...

cool eh...

 

ÜBERSETZUNGSBüRO

7:06 AM ET

January 20, 2011

very

very interesting!

www.probicon.de

 

CURIOUSCAT

11:18 AM ET

January 20, 2011

Iran and cables

Mr. Sick,
I have a question. While you mention Turkey, Brazil, and Iran, you have left out the very public statements of the Ambassador from the UAE. He stated in no uncertain terms, the U.S. needed to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. What about the Saudis? You mentioned that Ahmadinejad only proposed "using" the US to refine its uranium, as a "psychological gesture". That sounds like a trap to me. What do you think?

 

JAKOB.MILLER80

2:49 PM ET

January 20, 2011

Thank you to the author after

Thank you to the author after reason. True not quite clearly why all time occupies the USA position of edification. Why under reaching what or to renounce agreements and impose yet more terms. It seems to me that Iran original republic talk with which it is necessary to conduct uttery enough delicately. Thank you to the author for new information very useful for college paper.

 

PLEAB

3:51 AM ET

January 21, 2011

Good article

I think it is clear that the folks who place Israel's interests ahead of those of the US can veto any policy they dislike.

I'm sure someone in Obama's circle thought it would be wise to keep the negotiations going. As far as I can see, there is zero chance of any progress on any issue involving America's little buddy.

On the positive side, judging by the lack of trolls flocking to post under informative articles like this one, Israel is not planning to start a war anytime soon.

 

ROEEORLAND

2:42 PM ET

January 24, 2011

One thing you forget about the Brazilian-Turkish agreement

When the original deal was offered, Iran had less than 2.5 kilos of uranium, meaning that a deal for 1.2 kilos would severely cripple their nuclear aspirations (if they had any).
By mid 2010, they already had enough uranium, so that giving out 1.2 klos would not hamper their weapons program in the slightest.
The westerners accepting the deal at that time would have meant giving Iran free PR while not really getting any meaningful concessions from them.
It was, in short, a lame PR stunt for Brazil and Turkey (who knew everything I'm saying here)