Revolution in the Arab World
Dispatches Middle East Channel Latest Scenes from the Uprisings

The Pharaoh Is Dead, Long Live the Pharaoh?

My week in Cairo began amid violence and culminated with Mubarak's ouster. But no one really knows what's coming next.

BY BLAKE HOUNSHELL | FEBRUARY 11, 2011

CAIRO — Pharaoh is gone.

In just 18 days, a ragtag youth army overthrew one of the Arab world's most entrenched and brutal dictatorships, overcoming their own fears, the regime's considerable tools of oppression, and the doubts of outside powers that still aren't sure whether their interests will be served by a messy transition to democracy.

I arrived in Cairo last Thursday, Feb. 3, to cover what was then an unknown quantity. Was it a revolution? A revolt? Another failed uprising? This much was known: It was a gripping story, an unprecedented outpouring of popular anger whose aim was to drive President Hosni Mubarak from power and replace him with an electoral democracy.

On Wednesday, Feb. 2, the night before my flight, I had stayed awake glued to my Twitter feed and Al Jazeera, watching in disbelief as men armed with whips, knives, chains, and Molotov cocktails besieged Tahrir Square in a thuggish bid to flush the protesters out of downtown Cairo and crush their uprising. Up to the last minute, I still wasn't sure whether it would be safe to go; the U.S. State Department issued a sharply worded statement urging all Americans to leave the country "immediately" as the violence -- clearly orchestrated by elements of the regime itself -- began taking on an ugly, anti-foreigner tone.

The previous week, the protesters had twice outwitted and outfought Mubarak's black-clad riot police, finally seizing Tahrir Square and sending the regime's security forces melting into the night, while the Army mobilized to secure key government buildings.

They were still hanging on when I reached downtown Cairo late Thursday afternoon, after cruising along nearly deserted streets, past tanks, armored personnel carriers, and tense soldiers holding bayoneted assault rifles. I had landed in a war zone. The windows on the ground floor of my hotel, located right near the main entrance to the square, were barricaded, the lobby's lights dimmed, perhaps in the hope that Mubarak's goons would ignore us if they couldn't see us. Security guards nervously searched my bags and hastily ushered me inside.

Ironically, the safest place in Cairo was Tahrir Square itself. Although a rock battle was still raging on the northern end of the square near the landmark Egyptian Museum, it had settled into a stalemate. The "pro-Mubarak protesters" -- as some gullible Western news outlets still referred to them -- knew by then that they were badly outnumbered, and in any case their tactics had backfired badly; governments around the world expressed shock and demanded that Mubarak allow the demonstrators to express their grievances in peace.

Meanwhile, attacks on journalists continued, made all the more dangerous by a vicious campaign whipped up by Egyptian state television against foreigners. The following morning, I called a friend with long experience in Cairo. Military police had just raided the offices of the Hisham Mubarak Law Center, a legal-aid clinic that had become the locus of efforts to document instances of abuse and illegal detainment. He told me his organization might be next; he was leaving town and lying low for a while. Management at the big hotels around the square had been told in no uncertain terms to control their journalists or have them controlled for them, other friends warned me.

MOHAMMED ABED/AFP/Getty Images

 

Blake Hounshell is managing editor of Foreign Policy.

XENOPHON

10:32 PM ET

February 11, 2011

Good Rundown on the Last Week in Cairo

And significant point that the transition so far is within the establishment--a coup as Hounsell puts it--rather than a revolutionary change. Now the real maneuvering begins. Hopefully there will be no backsliding on the Army's part. We'll see.

 

ADAM NEIRA

8:21 PM ET

February 13, 2011

May 16th, 2011

There are many scenarios that can play out in the near future. The next ninety one days are crucial to the region. The anti-Jewish/Israeli posters on display in Tahrir Square were concerning but I believe the vast majority of Egyptians do not want war with Israel or any other nation. This younger generation is not as easy to manipulate as those of the Nasser era. The Egyptian Actor of "The Kite Runner" fame, 31 y.o. Khalid Abdalla spoke eloquently from the square today on the BBC World Service. (Who by the way are doing the best job at the moment of providing balance, insightful coverage and fairness on the goings on in the region.)

A common chant of the children in Tahrir Square fourteen hours ago was "Hold your head up high. We are Egyptians". An upcoming democratic election will be the first time in 5,000 years the Land of the Pharaohs will witness a free election of a government. So yes these are momentous times. The Israelis must be careful. A conditioned knee-jerk response with bluster mixed with an almost obligatory need to control all relationships around them will prove counterproductive. Even normally bold and blunt Ehud Barak was very muted and almost gentle in his brief interview with the media whilst meeting in New York with UN's Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

He said...

'Israel and the Palestinians should take advantage of turmoil in the Middle East to complete a peace accord. It is up to the Egyptian people to find a way and to do it according to their own constitution, norms and practices. Despite of all the turbulence around us we should look for opportunities within those difficulties, rather than to spiral into a sense of too heavy uncertainty that paralyses us from acting towards a better and more stable region.”

The centre of gravity is moving to the Holy Land. Jerusalem will be the centre of a divinely mandated command structure as prophesied. The UN Security Council should visit the following places on their Middle East jaunt : Israel; Gaza; The West Bank/Judea and Samaria; Syria; Jordan; Egypt; Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. This trip should happen as soon as possible. It will help prepare the way for another important visit to the region in the near future.

As I stated eleven days ago...

Politics is the art of the possible. Surveying the landscape what is before us ? Great chaos, flux, fear and change all throughout the Middle East. The threat of a downward spiralling vortex, almost like a land subsidence or spiritual sinkhole. No real leader present in Egypt. The other national leaders nervous but hanging on, treading water and managing to mitigate the anger by holding snap elections etc. Temporarily distracting the masses. Plugging the dyke. (Please note the previous eight sentences were written on Feb. 2nd. The events of the last few days have been very positive for the region. The geometers of consciousness, hope, fear and joy can shift very quickly at the moment.) How about a meeting in Jerusalem with various representatives from Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Egypt with other nations present ? A peace treaty could be negotiated. Various GDP's in the region...Israel US$292.7 billion; Jordan $31.01 B; Syria $96.53 B; Lebanon $53.81 B; Gaza $4 B; Saudi Arabia $600.4 B; Egypt $452.5 Billion. The total GDP of these eight areas is approx. $1.5 Trillion. This can increase by at least 4% per annum over the coming years if trust and co-operation increases. The vacuum needs to be filled. Ganeden needs an HQ. A good CEO is required.

Who is writing the future ?

 

XENOPHON

11:28 AM ET

February 14, 2011

Egypt Not Ready

Why, from your observations, is Egypt "not ready" for democracy? What would make it "ready"?

 

BASSEMTAHA

9:14 AM ET

February 14, 2011

please save Egypt

To all the tourist that left Egypt:
please come again. Egypt is now very safe and free. we wait for you to see new egypt

 

ADAM NEIRA

5:49 PM ET

February 14, 2011

No you can't fool the children of a revolution.

Tourists and revolutions mix as well as oil and water. People are attracted to places of stability, order, benevolence and expansiveness. There is enormous potential for tourism to historical sites all throughout the Middle East. Hopefully this decline in tourist numbers will be temporary. I would like to visit the Sinai and swim in the Red Sea again someday in the future. A visit to the pyramids would also be fun. So my hopes and prayers are partly selfish.

We are all G-d's children. Prayers for the good people of Egypt !