In the wake of peaceful revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, al Qaeda's argument that violent activism is necessary to achieve political change stands dramatically repudiated. It was peaceful protesters, not armed struggle, that ousted Hosni Mubarak and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. But that doesn't mean the militant group won't try to capitalize on instability in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world. In fact, jihadi communications since the crisis in Tunisia began in early January suggest that extremists hope to take advantage of the current instability.
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The most discussed aspect of al Qaeda's role in the Egyptian uprising has been a nonevent: the fact that Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's Egyptian second in command, has not yet released a statement about ongoing events. Al Qaeda franchises, moreover, did not release statements about either the Tunisian or Egyptian uprisings until weeks after the respective rebellions began.
But Zawahiri's notable silence does not mean that the jihadi community as a whole has been quiet. After the revolution in Tunisia and outbreak of protests in Egypt, various jihadi scholarly figures -- including Abu Mundhir al-Shanqiti, Abu Basir al-Tartusi, Akram Hijazi, and Hamid al-Ali (click here for a useful compilation of statements) -- released statements supporting the opposition movements. Meanwhile, jihadi activists online debated the value of the protests over the long run.
Not only was al Qaeda's official response slow, but it was obviously not coordinated with the wider jihadi milieu, revealing fractures within that community. For example, Shanqiti, a member of the shura council for the authoritative Minbar al-Tawhid wal Jihad library of jihadi doctrine, surprised experienced Western observers by giving a glowing review of the courage of secular protesters in Egypt and condemning Salafists for contributing nothing. When jihadi ideologues did issue criticism of the protesters, it sometimes took unexpected forms, such as when Tartusi -- a longtime jihadi critic of suicide bombings (yes, they exist) -- issued a fatwa condemning the acts of self-immolation as contrary to Islamic prohibitions on suicide.
Whereas jihadi ideologues generally supported the protesters and eschewed controversy, actual jihadi militant organizations were more confrontational. In general, they have argued that success of a revolution is not determined by how autocrats are overthrown, but by whether the succeeding government imposes the jihadists' conception of Islamic law. A Jan. 26 statement by al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb about the uprising in Tunisia urged would-be jihadists not to be satisfied by Ben Ali's eviction:
[T]he unjust, apostate corruptor ran away, but the system of cooperativeness, apostasy, injustice, corruption and suppression remains.... So if the man?made religion doesn't step off [to be] replaced by the transcendent religion, and if the [Islamic] Doctrine and the switched?off Sharia don't return ... then the duty upon Muslims in Tunisia is to be ready and not lay down their weapons.
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