The Ripple Effect

From Algeria to Iran and the countries in between, a look at how revolution fever is spreading across the Middle East.

FEBRUARY 15, 2011

Iran: The Green Movement Lives On

By Kelly Golnoush Niknejad 

It seemed like a peculiar time for Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, prominent leaders of Iran's Green Movement, to call for protests. After all, it wasn't just Iran's venomous hard-line press that had long declared the democratic movement dead. In the absence of street protests for more than a year, the Western mainstream media had ruefully pronounced that the Islamic Republic had succeeded in violently repressing the nascent reform movement. But the two leaders, despite being placed under house arrest by the regime, urged their followers to take to the streets on Feb. 14 for the largest protests since the muzzling of the Green Movement in December 2009.

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True, the recent uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt sent ripples throughout the region. But the Islamic Republic is its own peculiar animal, and the odds were stacked against a significant turnout by the opposition. Despite Iranian officials' grandstanding about the events in Egypt, contending that they were inspired by Iran's own 1979 revolution, they refused to grant opposition leaders a permit to demonstrate in solidarity with the brave people of Egypt.

The stakes were high -- in a word, death. If you didn't get shot on the street, there was the distinct possibility of falling prey to Iran's version of swift justice. The rate of executions has increased -- in mid-January, the New York-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran put it at one every eight hours.

That punishment has now been extended to a Dutch woman of Iranian descent arrested during the 2009 post-election protests and a web developer facing execution for allegedly building an adult website.

The death sentences sent chills beyond the sphere of political activists. "Now we don't know exactly what he has done," a musician in Tehran wrote me a few days ago, "but if it is only designing a website that is considered immoral by the government and getting a death penalty for it, then it is truly terrifying."

But despite the enormous risks, tens of thousands of Iranians streamed into the streets of Tehran and other cities for the Valentine's Day protests. "It was beyond anything we had expected," a Tehran Bureau correspondent in the capital told me. "I was all over on foot and on the rapid transit buses. The crowds were EVERYWHERE."

There were reports of scuffles, confrontations, and even severe beatings throughout the city. At least one protester was killed. But on the whole, the security forces were restrained. "It seemed like the Basij were ordered not to act until ordered," our correspondent added. "They just stood around looking bewildered. When the riot police would drive by on their bikes, they just put the fires out."

And perhaps most significantly, it appeared that Iranians from working-class neighborhoods were involved in the protests for the first time.

"I see the frustration over higher prices for fuel and basic food stuff and the jadedness of people toward the laws and regulations attacking their very foundation," a friend from affluent north Tehran wrote me in an email. "And I see the strength of the moneyed -- the privileged importers (ghachaghchis), the big developers, the quasi-government businesses -- keeping their grip on the economy by enriching the ruthless to rule the innocent. The tragedy is beyond description."

Iranian state media did its best to demonize the protest movement. The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting repeatedly showed a clip of the former shah's son Reza Pahlavi praising Monday's protests and Voice of America and BBC Farsi analysts supporting the demonstrations. "In between the clips, [Iranian media featured] pictures of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi [with] a backdrop of a Star of David and U.S. flag," reported a Tehran Bureau intern who watched state TV coverage of the protests.

The protests raged into the night, but few expect them to spill over into successive days. Conditions in Iran are far more repressive than under the autocrats in Tunisia and Egypt, and Iran is far less susceptible to international pressure. The question on everyone's mind was whether anybody would show up in the first place. In that sense, the Feb. 14 protests opened a window of opportunity for the Green Movement and showed that its leaders can still bring their followers to the streets.

Kelly Golnoush Niknejad is the founder and chief editor of Tehran Bureau, now in partnership with PBS's Frontline.

BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images

 

MUNZZ

10:07 AM ET

February 16, 2011

The Iran picture here is from

The Iran picture here is from the Ahmadinjead supporters and not the Green Movement.. please change that.

 

SQUEEK

12:34 AM ET

February 17, 2011

It wasn't a Valentines Day Protest

My understanding is that it was a national holiday to celebrate the birth of Mohamed. Please don't dumb this stuff down. Give the exact context and facts.

 

ABURAIHI

1:11 AM ET

February 17, 2011

U.S. turns it Bloody.

Obama administrations shocked to see some of their allies falling one after another. They don't won't the revolution to spread all the Arab States. They decide to show a fail revolution. Obama administrations would like to start a Civil War in Yemen to prove that revolution sometimes is a dangerous thing.But, the Yemeni youth will prove the opposite.

 

PKOULIEV

12:03 PM ET

February 17, 2011

Domino’s Effect

Many governments in the Middle East and Central Asia have created authoritarian regimes under ‘national unity’ slogans by strengthening security forces and providing lucrative state businesses to clan members. These government jobs or privileges have led societies divided to corrupted ‘royalists’ making big profits and impoverished people.

While these governments received foreign aids from western governments, ‘misleading’ reforms have not actually benefited population. Some young people graduating from universities have to bribe government officials to get a job, and then these youth have to collect bribes for providing services to get return on their ‘investment’. Many unemployed college graduates get recruited by extremist groups for their brains and deliver their messages to ‘governments’.

Democracy promotion in corrupted regimes became like “double-edged sword”. On the one hand, democracy has become more affiliated to social liberalism, and dictators use this to appoint their own people to unions, foundations, cultural promotion and other ‘human social issues’ organizations to raise funds from private companies and individuals for building their own legacy and heritage. On the other hand, liberal conservatism was demoted for carrying values associated with traditionalism, religiousness, individualism and not appropriate where global issues exist.

Parliament as a representative government branch has lost its power among people living in authoritarian regimes due to falsified elections, and nations getting used to having one leader whose power is limitless. Parliamentary elections became like ‘fund raising events’ as extension of bribery activities, and election observers try monitor and find some improvements from previous ones. Only a parliament elected by people can pass laws to have ‘check and balances’ in a society.

As a result, many government supporting state and ‘private’ industries lack efficiency for not having free market environment and providing fraudulently set-up ‘social benefits’ as part of money laundering scheme. When the World Bank and IMF ask these governments for complicated monetary policy and economic reforms to provide more aid, they do not ask for accountability and transparency for governments’ backstage dealings.

These kinds of governments’ budgets get empty faster due to support value of their currency and government jobs for inefficient bureaucracy.
Illegal immigration to the western countries from the Middle East is due to harsh economic life of many people in that region. While the United States and other developed countries complain about burden of immigrants on their national budgets, their ‘allies’ brutal policies and abuse against their citizens create artificial migration for better life.

In addition to economic hardships, police brutality against common people lead to uprisings in despotic regimes. When police humiliates country’s working class people, they would stand behind youth revolts to get back their dignity and self-respect.

Economic frustrations, like higher price for fuel affecting cost of many other basic needs, worsens situation when cutting subsidies to strategic economic resources, raising rates to prevent inflation escalates people’s hate against corrupt regimes leading to physical struggle and survival.
Expanding gap between ‘loyalists’ who enrich themselves by paying big bribes to hierarchy and common people surviving on day-to-day basis may lead to similar revolutions like French revolution in 18th century and Bolshevik revolution in 1917, when many innocent people got tortured and executed as well.

When the King of Jordan can dismiss the Prime Minister, it means there is not a constitutional monarchy in this country. Only parliament members in open societies can change Prime Minister. If we compare Jordan’s Prime Minister’s fate to Stolypin’s fate under Russian tsar Nicholas II, his fate is well known too. Instead of empowering the parliament to represent people in carrying required reforms, sacking Mr. Rifai sets a bad example when importance of civil interactivity is replaced by emotions dictating the result for short-term solutions.

Palestinian government’s use of force to disperse supporters of people of Egypt against Mubarak regime has shown hypocrisy and ambiguity nature for government’s legitimacy. If Palestinian government suppresses its people’s will to be on good side of some dictators, this kind of ‘government’ does not deserve people’s patience.

As domino’s effect lasts in the world, above listed factors would not disappear by a magic wand. All human abusing ‘governments’ and their tyrants will be haunted, as ghosts of human tragedies will take back their ‘dreams’ stolen from them and tyrants’ nightmare will be their extermination .