The Ripple Effect

From Algeria to Iran and the countries in between, a look at how revolution fever is spreading across the Middle East.

FEBRUARY 15, 2011

Palestine: ...Actually, It Just Highlights Their Bankruptcy

By Jared Malsin

If Palestinians were to stage an uprising against their own authoritarian leaders, Ramallah's al-Manara Square might be their equivalent of Cairo's Tahrir Square.

Palestinians celebrated news of the overthrow of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak in al-Manara on Friday night, Feb. 11 -- a brave decision, given that their protest was in violation of an explicit order by the Palestinian Authority (PA) banning demonstrations in solidarity with the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.

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In Ramallah that night, Palestinians showed a willingness to defy the PA rarely seen in the areas of the West Bank it controls. Civil society activist Omar Barghouti was one of those who joined the Ramallah gathering, which he called a "wonderful celebration." He held a sign reading "Freedom Wins! 2 Down, 20 to go!" Fireworks could be seen over several West Bank towns.

As publics throughout the Middle East follow Egypt's lead in demanding accountability from their governments, the PA figureheads in Ramallah -- President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad -- have good reason to be alarmed. Long before the Egyptian revolution, the PA faced serious questions about its legitimacy from Palestinians who increasingly view it as complicit in Israel's occupation of their land.

The PA initially sided with the Mubarak regime when the Tahrir uprising broke out, sending security forces to crush pro-democracy protests in the West Bank. Senior PA officials vilified the Egyptian demonstrators, with Abbas aide Tayeb Abdel-Rahim making dark allusions to the protesters' "suspicious allegiances" to "international and regional forces," a reference to the laughable theory that the uprising was a foreign or Islamist conspiracy.

Since then, the PA and PLO have adopted a more moderate, more conciliatory tone, responding to the present demands for accountability with three measures: the resignation of chief negotiator Saeb Erekat, the dissolution of the cabinet, and a call for local elections in July and parliamentary and presidential elections by September, though no dates have been set.

In the long run, none of these measures is likely to rescue Abbas and Fayyad. A similar cabinet reshuffle in May 2009 resulted in little substantive change. Any new cabinet would also continue to face questions in terms of legality: Fayyad's unelected government derives its mandate from a 2007 presidential emergency order of doubtful constitutionality.

Erekat's resignation, coming in response to Al Jazeera and the Guardian's release of peace process documents known as the "Palestine Papers," was more significant because of his seniority in the PLO. But this move, and the subsequent closure of his Negotiations Support Unit, could prove problematic. If direct control over negotiations reverts to Abbas, as some Palestinian officials privately predict it will, this would further centralize power with the president. It would also further blur the lines between the PA, whose authority is limited to the West Bank and Gaza, and the PLO, an organization intended to represent all 10 million Palestinians -- including refugees across the Middle East and the world.

The PA's call for elections is also not viable because the PA never stood a chance of convincing Hamas, which governs Gaza, to accept it. Since 2007, the group has argued that political and administrative reconciliation must precede elections. In the new reality following events in Egypt, Hamas is even less likely to compromise on this point, viewing the PA's position as weakened. To be fair, Abbas's Fatah movement and the PA are hamstrung from striking a new unity deal with Hamas due, it is widely believed, to opposition from the United States and its other international backers. Any deal with Hamas would risk Western donors canceling the funding the PA needs to survive.

This lack of diplomatic independence is another of the sad truths that alienate the PA from its own people. In the wake of Egypt's revolution, Abbas and Fayyad will face calls for deep and radical reforms -- including their own resignations -- and demands for a viable liberation strategy vis-à-vis Israel. If they do not heed these calls, they could soon face their own Mubarak moment in al-Manara Square.

Jared Malsin is the former chief English editor of the Palestinian news agency Ma'an.  His website is jaredmalsin.wordpress.com.

AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP/Getty Images

 

MUNZZ

10:07 AM ET

February 16, 2011

The Iran picture here is from

The Iran picture here is from the Ahmadinjead supporters and not the Green Movement.. please change that.

 

SQUEEK

12:34 AM ET

February 17, 2011

It wasn't a Valentines Day Protest

My understanding is that it was a national holiday to celebrate the birth of Mohamed. Please don't dumb this stuff down. Give the exact context and facts.

 

ABURAIHI

1:11 AM ET

February 17, 2011

U.S. turns it Bloody.

Obama administrations shocked to see some of their allies falling one after another. They don't won't the revolution to spread all the Arab States. They decide to show a fail revolution. Obama administrations would like to start a Civil War in Yemen to prove that revolution sometimes is a dangerous thing.But, the Yemeni youth will prove the opposite.

 

PKOULIEV

12:03 PM ET

February 17, 2011

Domino’s Effect

Many governments in the Middle East and Central Asia have created authoritarian regimes under ‘national unity’ slogans by strengthening security forces and providing lucrative state businesses to clan members. These government jobs or privileges have led societies divided to corrupted ‘royalists’ making big profits and impoverished people.

While these governments received foreign aids from western governments, ‘misleading’ reforms have not actually benefited population. Some young people graduating from universities have to bribe government officials to get a job, and then these youth have to collect bribes for providing services to get return on their ‘investment’. Many unemployed college graduates get recruited by extremist groups for their brains and deliver their messages to ‘governments’.

Democracy promotion in corrupted regimes became like “double-edged sword”. On the one hand, democracy has become more affiliated to social liberalism, and dictators use this to appoint their own people to unions, foundations, cultural promotion and other ‘human social issues’ organizations to raise funds from private companies and individuals for building their own legacy and heritage. On the other hand, liberal conservatism was demoted for carrying values associated with traditionalism, religiousness, individualism and not appropriate where global issues exist.

Parliament as a representative government branch has lost its power among people living in authoritarian regimes due to falsified elections, and nations getting used to having one leader whose power is limitless. Parliamentary elections became like ‘fund raising events’ as extension of bribery activities, and election observers try monitor and find some improvements from previous ones. Only a parliament elected by people can pass laws to have ‘check and balances’ in a society.

As a result, many government supporting state and ‘private’ industries lack efficiency for not having free market environment and providing fraudulently set-up ‘social benefits’ as part of money laundering scheme. When the World Bank and IMF ask these governments for complicated monetary policy and economic reforms to provide more aid, they do not ask for accountability and transparency for governments’ backstage dealings.

These kinds of governments’ budgets get empty faster due to support value of their currency and government jobs for inefficient bureaucracy.
Illegal immigration to the western countries from the Middle East is due to harsh economic life of many people in that region. While the United States and other developed countries complain about burden of immigrants on their national budgets, their ‘allies’ brutal policies and abuse against their citizens create artificial migration for better life.

In addition to economic hardships, police brutality against common people lead to uprisings in despotic regimes. When police humiliates country’s working class people, they would stand behind youth revolts to get back their dignity and self-respect.

Economic frustrations, like higher price for fuel affecting cost of many other basic needs, worsens situation when cutting subsidies to strategic economic resources, raising rates to prevent inflation escalates people’s hate against corrupt regimes leading to physical struggle and survival.
Expanding gap between ‘loyalists’ who enrich themselves by paying big bribes to hierarchy and common people surviving on day-to-day basis may lead to similar revolutions like French revolution in 18th century and Bolshevik revolution in 1917, when many innocent people got tortured and executed as well.

When the King of Jordan can dismiss the Prime Minister, it means there is not a constitutional monarchy in this country. Only parliament members in open societies can change Prime Minister. If we compare Jordan’s Prime Minister’s fate to Stolypin’s fate under Russian tsar Nicholas II, his fate is well known too. Instead of empowering the parliament to represent people in carrying required reforms, sacking Mr. Rifai sets a bad example when importance of civil interactivity is replaced by emotions dictating the result for short-term solutions.

Palestinian government’s use of force to disperse supporters of people of Egypt against Mubarak regime has shown hypocrisy and ambiguity nature for government’s legitimacy. If Palestinian government suppresses its people’s will to be on good side of some dictators, this kind of ‘government’ does not deserve people’s patience.

As domino’s effect lasts in the world, above listed factors would not disappear by a magic wand. All human abusing ‘governments’ and their tyrants will be haunted, as ghosts of human tragedies will take back their ‘dreams’ stolen from them and tyrants’ nightmare will be their extermination .