Too Little, Not Yet Too Late

Western governments say they have limited options to stop Qaddafi's barbarous war on his own people. And that's true -- but they haven't even picked the low-hanging fruit yet.

BY TOM MALINOWSKI | FEBRUARY 22, 2011

Much of official Washington has greeted the evidence of an ongoing massacre in Libya with a helpless shrug. "We don't have personal relations at a high level," lamented David Mack, a former U.S. diplomat in North Africa, in a Washington Post article titled "U.S. struggles with little leverage to restrain Libyan government."

Numerous articles in recent days, clearly influenced by what U.S. officials are telling reporters on background, have stressed this theme: The United States doesn't have deep ties with the Libyan military, as it did with the Egyptian and Bahraini militaries; it does not provide large amounts of aid to the Qaddafi regime; U.S. diplomats don't have friends in the Libyan government to whom they can make reasoned arguments about the need to change their ways. Therefore, even as Libyan leader Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi deploys warplanes, helicopters, and troops to crush the growing challenge to his rule, it is assumed that there is nothing the United States can do about the catastrophe under way.

But wait a moment. The United States doesn't have any military or diplomatic ties with Iran either, but we don't hear U.S. diplomats whining about how they are unable to press Tehran to give up its nuclear program. Nor did they plead limited influence when the world was pressing Libya, through sanctions and other tools, to compensate the victims of the Pan Am Flight 103 bombing over Lockerbie, Scotland, which was carried out by a Libyan intelligence officer. When an issue is important to Washington, U.S. officials figure out what leverage they have and use it as assertively and creatively as they can. They don't make excuses.

The U.S. military's connections to Egypt and Bahrain have unquestionably proved useful at key moments in the dramas that have unfolded there in recent weeks, allowing Pentagon officials to urge counterparts they knew well to show restraint. But those connections -- and the Pentagon's fear of losing them -- also held the United States back from pressuring those countries for reforms in years past. To say that deep military-military engagement is essential to having influence -- and an unvarnished good from the standpoint of promoting human rights -- is preposterous. Such ties can be helpful at key moments, but they can also reinforce the perception that the United States supports the status quo. In Egypt and Bahrain, they created popular mistrust of the United States that will take years to overcome.

The absence of close military and diplomatic relations can also free the United States to take more decisive steps to support democratic change and restrain repressive regimes such as Libya. Indeed, the international community has exercised such leverage effectively with Libya to pursue other goals in the past. Gaddafi was so eager for Western investment to develop his oil fields that he abandoned his nuclear program in 2003, ended his support for terrorist groups, agreed to a settlement on the Pan Am bombing, and in 2007 freed a group of Bulgarian nurses spuriously charged with spreading HIV among Libyan hospital patients. In each case, the West used the stick of sanctions and isolation and the carrot of closer economic and diplomatic ties to influence Libyan behavior.

MIRA OBERMAN/AFP/Getty Images

 

Tom Malinowski is Washington director of Human Rights Watch.

JUAN67

10:33 PM ET

February 22, 2011

he doesnt care

Simply because he doesn't , why should he, Libya have no boarders with Israel .

 

DAVEBARNES

11:38 PM ET

February 22, 2011

Not true

He cares.
But, he cares about Rolex watches and Lybia doesn't have very many.

 

ENLISTENZ

2:00 AM ET

February 23, 2011

Europe cares.

If the Europeans want us to put a no-fly zone on Libya, they must pay upfront, in cash. No checks. No credit. We have no commercial interests there, and they always squirm out of their pledges.

 

MODERATEWINGER

1:29 PM ET

February 23, 2011

Ahh yes, more Israel bashing

Tell me Juan, what would you do?? Truth is there is very little Obama can do, short of sending thousands of troops to get rid of Qaddafi.

 

JUAN67

1:06 AM ET

February 24, 2011

@MODERATEWINGER. I didnt say

@MODERATEWINGER. I didnt say anything about sending troops, till today Obama kept silent about Libya same happened with Tunisia, while in Egypt he went on tv twice in the same day , what is the difference in ur opinion , it s the satellite state Israel. We even heard ppl in Washington saying that Egypt is better with Mubarak .

 

JAMIEGRIXTON

6:19 AM ET

February 23, 2011

Interesting

Without a doubt it is going to be a very interesting and probably dangerous time for Libya over the coming weeks and months.

 

VR

8:51 AM ET

February 23, 2011

So wrong.

This article rests on so many assumptions that don't stand up to even the simplest of scrutiny. Let us begin with the parallel drawn with 2009 Iran. Yes, US officials came out strongly in support of regime change in Tehran that summer, but besides being vocal, no other diplomatic or economic tools were implemented with the strategic goal of toppling the government. The US has pushed for economic sanctions against Iranian financial interests, sure, but that is tied to their pursuit of a nuclear program, not their crackdown of protesters. The State Department launched a Twitter feed in Farsi, which was pretty much the extent of their efforts to support the protesters. And yes, you often hear officials complaining that they do not have the proper levers to pull in order to place pressure on the regime. Any overt US effort perceived from the Iranian people, in fact, backfires, due to the strong anti-american sentiment even in moderates.

Second, the US military's ties with the Egyptian military did not, in any way, keep the US from pressuring Mubarak. As other authors noted, the US had a strong counter-terrorism partnership with Egypt and they were key in keeping peace with Israel. However, US diplomatic officials and former Presidents often encouraged political reforms when interacting with their counterparts, including former President Mubarak. The fact that a large portion of the Egyptian military leadership come to the US for higher education, and have a close working relationship with the US military means the Egyptian military is indoctrinated with US military concerns and values. As we all know, they sided with the protesters, which was THE key in peaceful regime change.

Third, where is your evidence that Gaddafi's desire for Western investment pushed him to change course? A closer examination would reveal that Gaddaffi's behavior changed during the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union. Gaddafi always believed if relations were deteriorating with the West, he could seek a warmer relationship with Moscow. That "second option" was no longer available. Besides, since when as the European Union had a conscious about where they invest? France is one of Iran's biggest trading partners, and continues to promote efforts to refine Iranian oil. So no, Gaddafi had no problem attracting investment from the EU. That was not his motive for giving up WMDs or support to terrorism. What also happened in 2003 which may have influenced his decision on continuing to pursue WMD?

Fourth, you grossly overstate the impact economic sanctions and condemnations from international officials. World leaders from almost all countries have come out with strong condemnations of violence, including UN Gen. Sec. Ban Ki Moon. Economic sanctions, also, are not a tool that can be put together and implemented over night. They require months of international hand-wringing to secure a proper result. And the fact that Europe acquires a significant portion of its gasoline from Libya, might damper their interest in limiting its purchase.

So, you are wrong about the "irrelevant" influence of the US military in Egypt; wrong about the effects of economic sanctions; and wrong about the power of US diplomacy to catalyze change. If you are really interested in hastening Gaddafi from power, you may be calling for stronger options. Perhaps an ISAF force? And even there you would run into a brick wall. And considering you work for Human Rights Watch, I doubt you would support another US military intervention. So in this case your choices are limited. You will have to endure another African nation falling victim to civil war until they can ultimately find their own way out of it. And there is not a whole bunch Obama or Clinton can do about it.

 

BEASPADA

11:24 AM ET

February 23, 2011

Look to US alies who have influence over Lybia

Italy is bracing itself for the arrival of thousands of asylum seekers from Lybia. The US should work closely to allied countries who have leverage over Lybia and a personal interest in resolving the situation fast...to avoid massive numbers of people seeking asylum.

 

RYANJM

6:24 PM ET

February 23, 2011

Opportunity

What is a shame is that these countries are always in turmoil and the countries that buy all their oil.. only care when there is a hiccup on the oil coming out of the country.

 

MARTY24

11:36 PM ET

February 23, 2011

Suggestions on Libya

It seems clear that Qaddafi doesn't have the option of leaving for retirement somewhere else like Mubarak did. Thus, he must stay and fight until he is finally overthrown and killed. Threats to try him, and members of his family, for crimes will thus have no effect. Freezing his foreign assets will have no effect either for exactly the same reason.

However, as it becomes increasingly obvious that he is going down, the calculations of the people doing the killing on his behalf can change, and this is where an effective policy can focus. Outside forces, like the US, EU, or individual countries in Europe, must announce that they will support trials for those involved in the killing and that there will be no refuge given. This forces Qaddafi's troops to choose, and soon. Since they must know he will lose, the intelligent thing to do is to stop killing now, hastening an end to the violence, and not incidentally, to the Qaddafi regime.

Meanwhile, for the protesters in places like Egypt, the difference between what is happening in Libya and what happened to them should make them recognize that the US role in their country wasn't all bad.

 

JUAN67

1:26 AM ET

February 24, 2011

"US role in their country

"US role in their country wasn't all bad"
In general I agree with this statement , but what kept the Egyptian Army from attacking its ppl is not the US , it s the army's own values and traditions, even in Libya it wasn't the army who slaughtered the ppl its a mix of security legions and African melishias commanded by Qadafi's sons and close relatives , the commnder of the libyan army and many officers r already under arrest by Qadafi forces because they refused to use their troops against ppl, Qadafi boomed most of the ammunition stored by the army to prevent it from attacking him.