Yes, It Could Happen Here

Why Saudi Arabia is ripe for revolution.

BY MADAWI AL-RASHEED | FEBRUARY 28, 2011

In the age of Arab revolutions, will Saudis dare to honor Facebook calls for anti-government demonstrations on March 11? Will they protest at one of Jeddah's main roundabouts? Or will they start in Qatif, the eastern region where a substantial Shiite majority has had more experience in real protest? Will Riyadh remain cocooned in its cloak of pomp and power, hidden from public gaze in its mighty sand castles?

Saudi Arabia is ripe for change. Despite its image as a fabulously wealthy realm with a quiescent, apolitical population, it has similar economic, demographic, social, and political conditions as those prevailing in its neighboring Arab countries. There is no reason to believe Saudis are immune to the protest fever sweeping the region.

Saudi Arabia is indeed wealthy, but most of its young population cannot find jobs in either the public or private sector. The expansion of its $430 billion economy has benefited a substantial section of the entrepreneurial elite -- particularly those well connected with the ruling family -- but has failed to produce jobs for thousands of college graduates every year. This same elite has resisted employing expensive Saudis and contributed to the rise in local unemployment by hiring foreign labor. Rising oil prices since 2003 and the expansion of state investment in education, infrastructure, and welfare, meanwhile, have produced an explosive economy of desires.

Like their neighbors, Saudis want jobs, houses, and education, but they also desire something else. Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq in 2003, they have expressed their political demands in their own way, through petitions that circulated and were signed by hundreds of activists and professionals, men and women, Sunnis, Shiites, and Ismailis. Reformers petitioned King Abdullah to establish an elected consultative assembly to replace the 120-member appointed Consultative Council Saudis inherited from King Fahd. Political organizers were jailed and some banned from travel to this day. The "Riyadh spring" that many reformers anticipated upon King Abdullah's accession in 2005 was put on hold while torrential rain swept away decaying infrastructure and people in major cities. Rising unemployment pushed the youth toward antisocial behavior, marriages collapsed, the number of bachelors soared, and the number of people under the poverty line increased in one of the wealthiest states of the Arab world. Today, nearly 40 percent of Saudis ages 20 to 24 are unemployed.

Meanwhile, scandal after scandal exposed the level of corruption and nepotism in state institutions. Princes promised to establish investigative committees, yet culprits were left unpunished. Criticism of the king and top ruling princes remained taboo, and few crossed the red line surrounding the substantial sacrosanct clique that monopolizes government posts from defense to sports. The number of political prisoners and prisoners of conscience swelled Saudi prisons. Under the pretext of the war on terror, the Saudi regime enjoyed a free hand. The interior minister, Prince Nayef, and his son and deputy, Prince Mohammed, rounded up peaceful activists, bloggers, lawyers, and academics and jailed them for extended periods. Saudis watched in silence while the outside world either remained oblivious to abuses of human rights or turned a blind eye in the interests of oil, arms, and investment.

FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP/Getty Images)

 SUBJECTS: MIDDLE EAST
 

Madawi Al-Rasheed is a professor of social anthropology at King's College, University of London, and author of Contesting the Saudi State: Islamic Voices from a New Generation and A History of Saudi Arabia.

ARYABHAT

7:12 AM ET

March 1, 2011

Saudi ruling class' dethronement will be boon to the world

Sooner the Saudi king and his family is thrown out - better.

In short run it will be painful to American interests with its hold on the Saudi Oil gone. However, in long run Saudis will turn their nation in to a democratic and secular. I am hopeful because Saudi society is SO conservative, it can only reform for better.

With Saudi royal family gone, their wasted interest of perpetuating their regime with help of Conservative Mullahs and exporting Wahabi-Salafi extreme, violant Islam would be gone too!

Brother Osama will have one less reason to fight!

May be one day I will be even allowed to carry my religious book in Saudi? Or even go to Macca and Pray as mark of respect - without converting to Islam ? Just like I can do so in US, India, and Indonesia ? Just like people of every religion can go to Vatican and marvel as well as Pray if they wish so?

 

PLM-FISH

11:34 AM ET

March 1, 2011

Saudi Conundrum

Saudi Arabia faces a challenge, but also an opportunity. It has been the linch pin of stability in the Middle East, by hiring Pakistani, Egyptian, Yemeni and other workers on short-term visas. These workers are beholden to the Kingdom for wages sufficient to pay their exhorbitant cost of living in Saudi Arabia, and for scraping enough savings by to send some home. However, there are no wages when the visa expires, as it does for three months of every year, so the worker and the family never progress beyond a barely adequate subsistence.
However, now that Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and other places are under popular revolt, Saudi Arabia will have to exclude many of these workers to prevent the spread of revolution into the Kingdom. But the revolution, as Madawi Al-Rasheed notes, is on the internet, on Facebook, and in general discussion.
Maybe it is time for the Kingdom to employ its own citizens, hold them responsible for planning and carrying out public works, and build the foundation for a constitutional monarchy. Yes, I know, the Bedouin are mis-trustful of these "foreign" ways, but if this employment is not undertaken soon, Saudi Arabia will face a massive problem of inflation, no domestic workforce, and therefore no place to invest the billions that still roll in from oil sales. This is the turning point. The Kingdom can either begin to build its future, or face the clash between the traditional Bedouins and "City Saudis."

 

EAGLEHEART

11:34 AM ET

March 1, 2011

There is still plenty of money ...

Saudi Arabis is still, largely, tribal and illiterate. Their educational system is rooted in the seventh century, and therefore, a revolution is a will-o'-the-wisp. Not only there is, still, plenty of money to buy obedience but also lots of sticks to scare the population. Another dimension is the mosque, which is loyal to the untouchable royal family. ... The educated, liberal elite doesn't have much support among many Saudis. The tribes are the key to any successful revolt against the house of Saud. The house of Saud is doomed, but not yet - not in the foreseeable future. Things are bad in SA, but not that bad. People need to get hungry before a significant uprising sparks the fire of change.

 

TALALK

12:09 PM ET

March 1, 2011

A fair and thoughtful

A fair and thoughtful perspective from a well-known dissident, and a far more informed analysis than May Yamani's hyperbole the other day. The level of tension and degree of agitation is vastly overstated, however. Though anger at official incompetence and corruption is nothing new, anti-government resentment is not nearly so deep and widespread as existed in Egypt or Tunisia, where the people felt beleagured and defeated by a lifetime of being beaten down.
Of course, protests alone do not topple governments. But there is absent the broad consensus, cutting across all segments of society, that turned the tide in other countries. Half-hearted "likes" of a Facebook page do not necessarily translate into a widespread movement. Most importantly, there is absent any sort of tipping point, such as suddenly rising food prices, to create a spontaneous groundswell.
Furthermore, the role of the National Guard in any potential unrest cannot be discounted, if things were to get out of hand.
The king himself suffers from no lack of legitimacy, and the economic benefits announced were by no means greeted with universal cynicism. Indeed, the featured photo is of youths celebrating the return of King Abdallah last week.

 

NORBOOSE

4:37 PM ET

March 1, 2011

Too much legitamacy

The Saudi monarchy's special legitimacy, given its long history and its religious connections, makes it very unlikely that its people will overthrow it. Also, the Saudi government, though it has refused to grant freedoms, has resorted to force and coercion to maintain power remarkably little for any non-democratic nation. I can possibly see drastic changes being demanded, protests, maybe riots, followed by possibly large changes in government, but nothing as sharp as a true "overthrow" or "revolution"

 

NORBOOSE

4:45 PM ET

March 1, 2011

In case its not clear

The Saudi's lack of force and coercion is relevent because choosing to not regularly use force either indicates a reluctance to use force, or at least it evolves over time into a reluctance to use force. The more reluctant a regime is to use force, the more open it becomes to simply respond to public demands. I think the Saudi monarchy, if backed into a corner, would be willing to offer far more freedoms in order to placate the population and prevent a full scale revolution than Mubarak, Ben Ali, Qaddaffi, or the Bahraini royals (the Al-Khalifa's, I think) were/are. I think those freedoms would easily be enough to forestall any fully revolutuionary movements in Saudi Arabia for the forseeable future.

 

VALWAYNE

10:21 PM ET

March 1, 2011

Jimmy Obama!!!!

Obama's foreign policy of bows, apology, and appeasement has left the Mideast ablaze. He spent two years beating up on Israel when the real problems were boiling beneath the surface. We haven't seen the kind of incompetence, inconsistency, and vacilation we've see with Egypt, Bahrain, and Libya since Jimmy Carter and the Iran crisis. And why Obama doesn't speak our more forcefully against anti-American dictators like those in Iran and Venezuela is bewildering. Obama's refusal to allow drilling in Alaska, and his destruction of tens of thousands of high paying jobs as he banned offshore oil exploration and drilling has left the U.S. even more vulnerable than ever in our history. As for renewable energy, Obama has done nothing with nucelar technology which is proven, and Wind and Solar won't fulfill the nations needs no matter how much Obama throws at them and his left wing green special interests for decades or longer. We can thank Obama for gas prices that are going to hit $5 a gallon or more, and Obama's incompetence results in problems in Saudia Arabia $10 or $15 gallon a gas and freeziing cold homes in the winter are very real posiblities. Let's hope we can make it to the next election when we can do what we did with Jimmy Carter and show Jimmy Obama the door!!!!

 

SAM SHAHEEN

8:26 AM ET

March 2, 2011

Yes It is possible

The possibility is quite high,there isn't a single item in the Human rights book but violated ,starting with the expats rights ending up with the nationals.
You have to understand the concept of the Royal Family ,they are the Owners of Saudi and everybody who happens to live on their land should obey and eat whatever they throw to him !!and No complaints or otherwise ,simply leave the country ..dare you to walk out of heavens...
It's such a unique set up ,religion is political ,just reminds you of europe in the Middle Ages but in the 21st century.
Yes they need a Drastic change ,you bet it will happen..

 

MARTY MARTEL

10:24 AM ET

March 2, 2011

But what can replace it?

Even if Egypt-style revolution was to happen in Saudi Arabia, it is NOT going to bring a moderate democratic government in fundamentalist Islamic Saudi Arabia.

And even Egypt itself is a question mark as to what is going spring up in place of Mubarak regime.

 

EAGLEHEART

11:11 AM ET

March 2, 2011

@MARTY

You're right! But I hope you're wrong. Saudi Arabia, still in the dark ages, is a private corporation - and worse - owned by the untouchables. They own the land, the oil, and the subjects. But a revolution is unlikely: Saudi children are brain washed with the idea that the king is their legitimate Muslim leader, and rebelling against him is a grave sin that borders infidelity (Kufr). And who wants to be an infidel, right?

It means you're a subhuman and your life is worth NOTHING. Bloody nonsense? Yes. But that's what they're taught.

Democracy in Egypt, SA? What kind of nonsense is that?

Democracy isn't just elections, it's much, much more than that....

 

PHILIPPE

9:49 PM ET

March 7, 2011

Al-Rasheed Author ?

can the author opinion be trusted ?

author name > MADAWI AL-RASHEED

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Rashid

after all house of rasheed has plenty of reason to dislike the Saud

 

MASINI

2:08 AM ET

March 18, 2011

Education

The problem in this part of the world is that education has long been lacking. They have started investing money in other countries but very few people who have done so. Most still do not know what rights and especially the obligations of a free citizen. So in conclusion, solid education is needed for several decades for the population of that area to change. But everything has a beginning and I hope it happens soon.acte inmatriculare masina