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Think Again: Arab Democracy

One of the world's foremost experts on democracy building debunks the myths surrounding the Arab world's new governments -- and wonders what sort of role the West should play.

BY THOMAS CAROTHERS | MARCH 10, 2011

"Islamists Will Win Big in Free and Fair Elections."

Not necessarily. Many observers watching the events in the Arab world worry that expanding the political choices of Arab citizens will open the floodgates to a cascade of Islamist electoral landslides. They invoke the experience of Islamist victories in Algeria in 1991 and Palestine in 2006 as evidence for their concern.

This fear is overblown. Elections in which Islamists do well grab international attention, but do not represent the norm. Islamist parties have a long history of electoral participation in Muslim countries but usually only gain a small fraction of the vote. In their extensive study of Islamist political participation, published in the April 2010 Journal of Democracy, Charles Kurzman and Ijlal Naqvi find that most Islamist parties win less than 10 percent of the vote in the elections in which they participate.

It is true that after decades of autocracy, secular opposition parties in most Arab societies are weak and Islamists are sometimes the most organized alternative. Yet organization itself does not automatically guarantee electoral success. Given the powerful role of television and the Internet, electoral campaigns have often become as much about mass-media appeal as grassroots work. Especially in new democracies, charismatic candidates leading personalistic organizations and offering vague promises of change sometimes win out over better-organized groups (think President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia). In addition, Islamists may inspire strong loyalty among their core supporters, but winning elections requires appealing to the moderate majority. The protests sweeping the Arab world have so far been notable for their lack of Islamist or sectarian sentiment, and nowhere among the countries in flux is there a charismatic religious leader such as Ayatollah Khomeini ready to seize power.

An Islamist victory somewhere in the Middle East can't be ruled out, but that does not mean we will see a replay of Iran circa 1979. Never in the Arab world have any Islamist election gains resulted in a theocracy, and established Islamist parties across the region have proved willing to work within multiparty systems. Moreover, newly elected Islamists would not have free rein to impose theocracy. Whoever is elected president in Tunisia or Egypt will face mobilized populations with little patience for fresh dictatorial methods as well as secular militaries likely to resist any theocratic impulses.

KHALIL MAZRAAWI/AFP/Getty Images

 

Thomas Carothers is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

SAM FROM CALIFORNIA

10:27 PM ET

March 10, 2011

Were they really not imposed by the west?

Most of these kingdoms were put in power by the British and French. The only exception is Egypt and Tunisia, which weren't kingdoms but republics. But Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Oman are all puppet states, while Iran, Iraq and Libya used to be before the first fell to theocracy and the second two to strong man rule. Morocco is sort of an exception since it has an ancient monarchy, but even there the US is responsible for keeping him in power.

 

KASEMAN

5:01 PM ET

March 11, 2011

Imperial backwash

The ony thing that the Arab and Sub Saharan states have in common is borders drawn by either British or French imperial proconconsuls. To meet their ambitions. Except for Egypt. That does not make nations laike Korea or Poland! These states are conceits born of imperial white European Christian conquests and land grabbing.

While the Arab states contain real nations ie ethnic groups that have distinct history, language, ethnic identity, mythology, culture etc, , that go back many centuries, as in Europe, or in case of Egypt 5000 years, except for Ethiopia all the African states, non or faux "nations" are creatures of British and French colonial offices, with no common history, language, ethnic identity, mythology, culture etc. Like Nigeria, Sudan, Congo, etc.. FYI Congo started of as a private property of King Leoplod, a German, and Mozambique and Angola were Portuguese colonies and source of slaves but under courtesey of London and Paris, while the Portuguese colonies were controlled by London.

And when will these faux American experts recognise that "Arab" means language and only language, not nationality or race. People who speak Arabic come from numerous nations and different ethnic groups, some numbering in millions. These experts condescendly call them tribes. But 300,000 Icelanders or 1 million Estonins are nations.

No wonder 100% of our experts missed the current revolts. Since incompetence is virtue in Washington, we will keep making the wrong policies choices, and as becoming a status quo power in decline, oppose the changes that are being driven by the young. Who have never existed in the Beltway's computersm, being full of Al Qaeda. All 50 of them, as the capos of the CIA and NSA tell us.

 

KHALID RAHIM

5:56 AM ET

March 12, 2011

Re: Really not imposed by the west?

Tunisia was under the French ruled by a monarch called BEY, until Tunisians led by
Habib Bourghiba overthrew the French and declared Tunisia an free republic, Egypt
till 1952 was ruled by British puppet King Farouk ousted by young officers of the Egyptain army led by Gamal Abdel Nasser. Jordon was created by taking parts from Palestine,Syria and Iraq to compensate one son of the ruler of Hejaz, while the other got Iraq minus Kuwait to install a Sudheri tribe whose first cousins were
handed the land now called Saudi Arabia. Mullah Barazani the Kurdish leader was also promised a homeland for Kurds, if he sided with the British against the Turks.
Only the Zionist were given Israel on a gold platter. Morocco's ruler also subject of
the French waited and watched the tussle between the Algerians led by Ben Bella
and Tunisian by Habib Bourghiba. Morocco gained independence without a fight.
American involvement in this region began after signing of Camp David accord.
Whille in the Gulf during the Desert Storm operations.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

10:32 AM ET

March 13, 2011

The author wrote:

"Yet the 1989 analogy is misleading in at least two major ways. First, the communist governments of Central and Eastern Europe had been imposed from the outside and maintained in place by the Soviet Union's guarantee -- the very real threat of tanks arriving to put down any serious insurrection."

The author doesn't know what he is talking about. Here's another point, just as the Soviet Union was broke, so are we. What the author fails to grasp is the degree to which NATO has vanished. The Euros aren't supportive of war like we Americans are. NATO is done, which blinded and deafened the US in the Middle East. We were blinded because we Americans don't speak Arabic and our "experts" don't know history.

I don't know if I can bear to read any more of his article, being so critically flawed from the outset.

 

VERMICIOUS KNID

2:51 AM ET

March 14, 2011

They really weren't imposed by the West...mainly

Let's review:

First, countries where post-colonial regimes were overthrown by anti-Western, often Soviet allied, quasi-socialist Arab nationalist regimes, which in some cases later became friendlier to the West but could never be called puppets:

Egypt - British-installed king overthrown in 1952 by nationalist army officers.
Syria- post-independence republic overthrown by Baath socialists
Iraq - British-installed king overthrown by nationalists, then Baathists. But see below:
Libya- no comment necessary
Algeria- French ousted by rebellion.
Tunisia- independence mvt. against France, mostly peaceful

Then there's the Gulf oil states:
Saudi Arabia - native religious fanatics took over peninsula from previous rulers in 1920s. Never subject to Western rule.
Kuwait, UAE, etc - native dynasties subject to loose British protectorate late 1800s- mid 1900s. Small and reliant on the US for protection against invasion by

The rest:
Iran. Western-imposed democracy overthrown by Western-imposed dictatorship overthrown by present theocracy.
Jordan - created by Brits, who installed Arabian dynasty that had helped Lawrence of Arabia. Not one of the region's worst autocracies.

Iraq post-2003- well, this is a pretty clear-cut case of imposition, although the present govt. is relatively democratic, and with its close ties to Iran, is only so much of a puppet anymore.

So, were the region's dictatorships imposed by the West? Well, Jordan was. And the little oil fiefdoms are kind of borderline. But the biggest, most populous ones were decidedly not. Iran would be a clearcut case- 33 years ago.

As for the related question, do we "prop up" dictatorships? We give major aid to Jordan and Egypt, mainly due to the Camp David peace accords, but as for the others - not so much. Sure, we sell them weapons, but they could get those from Russia, China, Europe, etc. Anyway, high tech weaponry isn't really needed to run a police state.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

6:47 AM ET

March 14, 2011

"An Islamist victory

"An Islamist victory somewhere in the Middle East can't be ruled out, but that does not mean we will see a replay of Iran circa 1979. Never in the Arab world have any Islamist election gains resulted in a theocracy, and established Islamist parties across the region have proved willing to work within multiparty systems."

Here's where the author and commenter above are wrong yet again. Algeria's "Islamist" President was shot on TV, his election voided by the military, which always acted in coordination with the French military. The US was involved in the selection of Saddam, Quaddaffi, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Morocco has long been a satrap of the French.

The ignorance of this region is legion, especially by the author and various commentators. The British ring of Hashemite kings is still in power throughout the UAE and the Middle East proper. "Fat dumb and stupid is no way to go through life."

 

NICOLAS19

4:27 AM ET

March 11, 2011

yes, think again

"First, the autocratic governments of North-Africa and the Middle East had been imposed from the outside and maintained in place by the United States' guarantee -- the very real threat of bombers arriving to put down any serious insurrection. When American power began to crumble in the late 2000s, this guarantee turned paper thin and the regimes were suddenly deeply vulnerable to any hard push from inside"

Yeah, I rephrased the sentence in the article, yet it is still true. You refuse to see the analogy, because it shows, how overstretched empires are doomed to fall apart, just like yours.

 

VERMICIOUS KNID

3:27 AM ET

March 14, 2011

The analogy doesn't really hold

Most of the region's dictatorships were native developments, often originally anti-colonial. Nor have they relied on the US to put down insurrections, unless you consider the 1990 invasion of Kuwait an insurrection. They have been quite capable of doing so themselves with their own antiquated Soviet hardware, as Saddam Hussein demonstrated in the 90s.

When the military is unable or unwilling to stop a rebellion, as in Iran in 1978 or Egypt today, the US can only stand back and watch.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

6:53 AM ET

March 14, 2011

you're mistaken

Your timeline is the first faulty bit of info. The British and French influence comes entirely after the fall of the Ottoman empire and the Treaty of Paris. You ignored Lebanon, Algeria, Lybia (an Italian colony), Tunisia and the UAE. But other than that you have a point, no you don't that included every country in the ME. True, we had little influence in Armenia.

 

DWIGHTBAKER

8:36 AM ET

March 11, 2011

DEMOCRACY THINK AGAIN

The Murderous Monster Titans of oil and gas roamed ranted and created tirades over the earth and made long range plans some 30 or 40 years before today’s attacks were made.
By Dwight Baker
March 10, 2011
Dbaker007@stx.rr.com

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/10/think_again_arab_democracy

http://www.businessinsider.com/15-oil-and-gas-sp-1500-winners-2011-3?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business+Insider+Select&utm_campaign=BI_Select_031011

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-next-leg-up-in-oil-could-actually-send-the-dollar-higher-2011-3?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Money+Game+Select&utm_campaign=MoneyGame_Select_031011

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-the-day-bp-rosneft-deal-2011-3?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Money+Game+Select&utm_campaign=MoneyGame_Select_031111

MY TAKE --- better think twice before betting with or against the Beast

My Great Great Great Great Uncle William Rockefeller said of his brother J.D. Rockefeller “ monster; merciless in his greed; pitiless in his cold inhuman passions,

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F60C1EF8385512738DDDAB0994D0405B878CF1D3

Yet across the pond at the discovery of oil another such villainous family lived that had practiced the craft of banking, and had taken many lands as tribute in their wars built around crooked handling of currency. The Rothschild family dug into the vast markets that waited on the product that lit the night.

Then the evil murderous monster titans [Rockefeller and Rothschild] in a cohort effort sailed the globe and claimed the treasury of oil and gas where geologist had marked out.

Therefore we who can think and study a bit should never be surprised when up jumps a humanoid devil and takes away our wealth.

 

DONSMYTH-ST.JOHN

9:05 AM ET

March 11, 2011

humanoid devil

It's not clear how it 'takes away our wealth', by supplying us with oil so we can drive cars.
Presumably the Rockefellers and Rothschilds didn't affect oil at all in some countries, say China, Burma, Albania, Brazil; but those countries peoples couldn't drive around in cars. Is it possible you're just an anti-semite?

 

ARYABHAT

9:00 AM ET

March 11, 2011

So correct

Islam and Democracy would never stick together!

Look at what happened in Pakistan? Started as a Secular/Democratic nation and where it is now?

Or Turkey that tried to be "Democratic" ended up with Islamists!

Or Malasia that moved from Military to Democracy an dnow Hindus minority is persecuted there!

 

SEPPOIN

2:03 PM ET

March 11, 2011

Aryan Rant

Gentleman,

The ideals of democracy are Islam are compatible, unlike Hinduism (Caste system, Burning widow after the death of Husband, etc)

 

SAM FROM CALIFORNIA

7:51 PM ET

March 11, 2011

how far some hindus and muslims have fallen

I hate it when Muslims and Hindus waste their time arguing that the other's religion is more reactionary and violent than the other. Who gives a damn? The main thing holding both Muslims and Hindus back in the subcontinent is their irrational hatred of the Other.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

10:40 AM ET

March 13, 2011

so ignorant

Turkey is a model democracy. The refused to be cowed by the US in the Iraq invasion, they've pressured Israel on her illegal occupation of Gaza, they've offered substantive solutions to Iran's nuke program; what's wrong with Turkey? Perhaps you are an excitable Zionist with a small bladder? Islam is better a democracy and protecting the rights of minorities than Israel. None are persecuted as the West Bank Palestinian and Gazan, nowhere are whole people treated deliberately and consistently "humiliated, oppressed, starved and dominated," as in Israel.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

10:48 AM ET

March 13, 2011

Sam, do some reading

You need to learn about how the British empire divided and conquered India. The British sent Muslims and Hindus and Christians to different school. They reinforced these differences, often putting the minority group in power over the masses.

Example.

Jordan has a mandated Christian President though it's Muslim majority
Syria, Assad's family are from a small ethnic group, Saddam in Iraq, Bahrain where the Sunnis rule over Shia, OR most relevant would be in Af/Pak. After Pakistan separated from India, they wanted to unite with Afghanistan's kingdom, but the British wouldn't allow it. If that had happened, the Pashtun people would be the principle ethnic group in the region. The way Afghanistan and Pakistan are divided today, they are utterly disenfranchised.

 

VIR NARAIN

9:18 AM ET

March 11, 2011

Arab Democracy

Is it not true that there is a basic incompatibility between Islam and democracy as it is now being practiced? One essential feature of a democratic government is that the nation is governed according to laws framed by the elected representatives of the people. But, according to the tenets of Islam, there is an over-riding law -the Sharia - which has to be followed. The legislature cannot have the same authority to legislate as it does in modern democracies - and even its legitimacy can be challenged by devout Muslims. Secularism is also ruled out. Can there be democracy without secularism?
The prospects for true democracy in the Arab world - and perhaps in the non-Arab Islamic world as well - are bleak.

 

SEPPOIN

2:12 PM ET

March 11, 2011

Democracy & Minorities

The head of the democratically elected govt of Indian state Gujarat burned over 3000 Muslims in 2002. And he still got elected by the majority Hindus.

The question we need to ask: Is the democracy you are asking is compatible with humanity?

Islam mandates certain values (Justice, Equality and a few other universal rights) in Quran (Koran) and Hadiths. These values can't and shouldnt be overridden by legislatures and by executive branch. How does this concept go against the values of Democracy?

Now, don't compare Islam with what happens in some Arab states. The sources of Islamic law are not people, but Koran and Hadith.

 

RFJK

1:23 PM ET

March 11, 2011

Democracies?

There are no 'majoritorian orders' (demos) in servitude to the 'majoritorian will,' in pursuit of 'majoritorian' power anywhere on the face of the globe for some 2,500 years. And even those democracies per their own definition of the word weren't exactly 'people power' - ruling affairs. Women, foreigners, minorities, slaves and other classes of citizens didn't have a say.

For want of a word we in fact have a plethora of pseudo democracies of many forms where individual, economic, political and corporate elites exercise real power in place of the people. Granted, affairs have so evolved in the maturer forms (N.America, Europe) whereby ruler-ship is conferred by consent of the masses for limited and specified periods of time. But democracies, demos, people rule and power they are not.

The 'fire in the minds' of the masses surging across the Arab world today is merely another chapter in a story that started with the French Revolution 300 years ago. What pseudo democratic forms or norms Arabs choose and settle for is their business, as it had been accomplished everywhere previously. Arabs will add newer contexts and forms to the bewildering array of so called democracies.

But for the have's we had better be brighter than the Bourbon's who had "learned nothing and forgotten nothing." An era is passing, the world has changed and changing everyday under our very feet. The Arab Ecumene in all its variety and throes of chaotic change will challenge the world, especially the west in finding new ways of relating to the most strategic resource rich region of the globe.

 

PHILBEST

5:24 PM ET

March 11, 2011

Rulers "imposed" from outside

It is a sign just how far our civilisation has fallen away from reason, that people think that everyone else in the world would be just as peaceful, happy, prosperous and democratic as we ourselves are, "if only the evil USA stopped propping up dictators".

Peaceful, happy, prosperous democracies are an aberration in the history of humanity, not the norm. They require a particular grassroots culture. If and when a people anywhere "get" this grassroots culture, they MIGHT get to establish a peaceful, happy, prosperous democracy if they can overcome brutal reactionary movements within and nearby their own country. It is the height of nonsense to assume that the USA would be an OBSTACLE to any such movement.

Every "dictator" "propped up by the USA", can be reasonably considered in the circumstances, as being the lesser evil for his own people as well as the interests of the USA - which interests happen to be aligned with peaceable democracy in the world, not its reverse.

When a US president, for the first time in history, bravely attempts to actually impose a peaceable democracy by force (the only possible way, by the way), why was he NOT hailed as a visionary hero by the same people who blamed the USA for "propping up dictators"? If even the democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan fail, where is the evidence that the Islamic world ANYWHERE is compatible with democracy?

The only parts of the Islamic world that are not brutal theocracies, such as Turkey and Indonesia, have been "secularised" to some extent by what were effectively brutal fascist regimes; look at the sheer murderousness of Kemal Ataturk's regime for example. Or the relatively secular Saddam Hussein. And such "secular" Muslim nations constantly walk a knife edge of violence and counter-violence between the Islamists and the secular government and military.

I do not doubt that there are majorities of Muslims in all these nations that want something other than brutal, reactionary theocracy or brutal, "progressive" secular fascism. But the history of government of mankind, is marked by power struggles between brutal minorities; the most brutal wins. I have no doubt that most Russians did not want the Bolsheviks, most Germans did not want the Nazis, most Frenchmen did not want the Jacobins, most Cubans did not want Castro, and most Iranians did not want the Mullahs (even if they also did not want the Czars or the Bourbons or Battista or the Shah. But which evil was the worst one in each case?)

But as Winston Churchill said "All that is needed for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing". It is a miracle indeed, that peace-loving men EVER came to rule anywhere in the world; peace-loving men rarely overcome brutal minorities. Something about the USA, something about the English, something about Protestantism, something about post-Papist Christianity; IS "exceptional". We are fools to believe otherwise. This exceptionalism succeeded because it came up from the grassroots, as "culture". It succeeded in spite of the best efforts of totalitarians of every persuasion; monarchists, fascists, communists, theocrats, imperialists; to prevent it.

It is only "our fault" that the rest of the world does not enjoy the same blessings as we do, because we have failed miserably to hold out this exceptionalism to the rest of the world as a shining example. Afghanistan demonstrated that it is a lost cause, when its first democratically elected government passed its first law: the death sentence for apostasy from Islam. It is not "our fault" where Afghanistan goes from here, other than that we have spinelessly gone out of our way to appease this culture of self-destruction.

 

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

7:25 PM ET

March 11, 2011

Democracy by any other name.

The word ‘democracy’ is bandied about with a quasi-religious conviction that brooks no opposition and defies dialectical debate. Consideration of democracy should first demand agreement on what precisely is meant by the word, and can only move on when there is a single unequivocal definition. This is all but impossible and attempts simply evaporate in clouds of variously worthy aspirations. Nor can we find a single socio-political system, now or in the historical past, and say, That is what we mean by democracy. The fact that we never-the-less feel we know what it means demonstrates that it is an abstraction, something we conceive in the mind but cannot reproduce in the real world. The only fragment of this abstraction that we are able to reproduce is the ballot. However, elections readily produce results that run completely counter to democracy as a concept. Human nature invariably corrupts ballots in a variety of ways from fiddling with voter registration or the ballot slips, through intimidation, to purchasing voter influence. Any system that results in actions by the elected leadership that conflict with the wishes of the majority cannot be called democracy. The closest democracy gets to manifesting in the real world is in the impulse and endeavour to escape intolerable oppression, not in the details of the destination. This can be clearly seen with the protest movement in Egypt where commentators and analysts were bemused that there appeared to be no policies other than getting rid of the old regime structure.

 

SCOTTINDALLAS

7:08 AM ET

March 14, 2011

Europe

The authors comments on Europe are again naive and based likely in a soft bigotry. Europe has been a big part of the problem. Furthermore, it's Europe's bankruptcy that has allowed these events to occur. So much of this article is well meant but its stuck in it's Aryan perspective. What's better, these countries will out-last the American empire. The collapse of the American empire is the real reason we aren't able to suppress these revolts, as we did previously, and continuously since the Suez crisis, when we picked up the abusive mantle. This economic recession ISN'T global. The East is chugging along, South America is doing fine. The resource rich ME regimes are mostly doing fine.

 

TURIDDHU

5:23 PM ET

March 14, 2011

democracy think again

our style of democracy and present day islamic religion are just not compatible,unless arab countries evolve into something like turkey where government and religion go their separate ways and coexist with each other, our kind of democracy will not stand much of a chance there.you can't help but see what might be the beginning of a movement in the right direction but it stil could take a long time ,till then its best we don't make too many waves and go with who could harm us the least,in the case of libya,it should be investigated if many of the rebels who are flying the flag of the ex king are serious. another monarchy in the mold of jordan wouldn't be too bad.

 

PHILIPLANS

3:33 PM ET

April 2, 2011

arab democracy

I am not a specialist but fact is that Lebanon could handle a democratic republic after the second world war, after the mandate of the French commissionner granted by the League of Nations in 1919 was ended, while "Observers concur that, quite to the contrary, car roof racks for sale, even in the appointment of the lowest echelons of government, became a permanent fixture of Lebanese democracy."