Stage Fright

Just when Europe is in desperate need of a strong, forward-thinking leader, Germany is nowhere to be found.

BY CAMERON ABADI | MARCH 25, 2011

In an interview one week ago in the Hamburg-based newspaper Die Zeit, German satirist Henryk Broder, who had just completed a six-month journey across Deutschland that he called a "Germany Safari," offered a succinct description of his country's default psychological state. "Germans like to be afraid. They are afraid of overhead lines, and underground train stations; of dioxins in their eggs at breakfast, and of climate change," he said. "Fear is Germany's nectar of life."

The German word for fear, Angst, carries an additional resonance of anxiety -- of the type of dread, for example, that has been the mark of Chancellor Angela Merkel's foreign policy decisions on Europe, NATO, and the Middle East in recent weeks. The multiple global crises haven't triggered panic in Berlin -- Merkel, the PhD physicist, is too calculating for that -- but Germany's decision-making has been informed by a dismay of the unknown and an instinct to obsess over parochial concerns. Germany, the longtime geostrategic understudy, has finally earned a leading role on stage only to promptly forget its lines. Its fumbling improvisations haven't inspired much confidence either.

Once the evangelist of European solidarity, Germany is now reluctant to jeopardize its stability for the sake of a fraying continent. Berlin has made a decision to mostly stay out of budding conflicts, rather than shape a resolution to them. As a grand strategy, this has unsurprisingly proven problematic. With the common European currency spiraling deeper into crisis, the continent's largest economy has managed to organize only piecemeal palliatives as first Greece, then Ireland, and now Portugal teetered on the brink of all-out bankruptcy. And after Germany finally earned in January a long-coveted seat on the United Nations Security Council -- a position it assumed with the promise to "prevent rather than promote antagonisms on the council" -- how did it decide to use it? By abstaining in the March 17 vote on intervention in Libya, thereby aligning with China and Russia against its closest allies, France and the United States. Politicians across the political spectrum in Germany, astounded by their country's newfound diplomatic isolation, have wondered why the government couldn't have voted for the resolution while clarifying that it would not be able to substantially contribute to a military mission. They have not received any clear answer from Merkel. The situation prompted a respected German army chief, Klaus Naumann, to say that he was "ashamed" of his country's stance.

Indeed, it's not that Germany does not have the capacity to serve in a position of global leadership, but that it simply would prefer not to. The psychological roadblocks to a more robust leadership role are deeply ingrained, so much so that Germans are blind to them. One anonymous government official in Berlin dismissed concerns about his country's abstention from the Libyan war, proudly stating that Merkel was too busy attending to the German public's concerns with Japanese nuclear power. When history is written, he told the New York Times, "people will remember 9/11, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Kennedy assassination, and Fukushima." It's true that Germans have been obsessed with the nuclear disaster in Japan (like they are still obsessed with Kennedy), but that is evidence of myopia, not of wisdom.

Indeed, Germany registered its abstention at the U.N. vote as if only dimly aware that the decision would have a series of real, and uncomfortable, repercussions. The first came courtesy of Muammar al-Qaddafi, who thanked Germany for its vote and promised he will now advocate for Berlin to have a permanent seat on the Security Council. (Germany's former foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, promptly declared that long-time aspiration now permanently dashed.) Germany has also found itself in the somewhat humiliating position of having to remove four military ships seconded to NATO from the Mediterranean to be certain that they stay out of any potential entanglements -- a move that amounts to a unilateral withdrawal from other NATO commitments that Berlin had made in the region. In a seemingly ad hoc decision to prove her goodwill, Merkel has quickly moved to increase German support of military surveillance missions in Afghanistan. Of course, goodwill only goes so far in high-stakes diplomacy.

Meanwhile, France is working to ensure that Germany is kept out of any aspect of consultations on the current status of the Libyan intervention and future political arrangements, while French diplomats lob vague threats at their neighbor. "Angela Merkel will have to pay for this for a very long time," one French diplomat told French newspaper Le Parisien. Meanwhile, it seems the rebels in Benghazi have turned decisively against Germany as well. Spiegel reports crowds of men in the Libyan city chanting, "Merkel should be ashamed of herself." The magazine quotes one rebel saying, "When we've earned our freedom and can decide for ourselves, we won't be doing any business with Germany."

AFP

 SUBJECTS: GERMANY, EUROPE
 

Cameron Abadi is an associate editor at Foreign Policy.

TEASER38

11:59 PM ET

March 25, 2011

Or maybe it's election season in Germany?

Around November the US gets all squirrel-y too. The Germans are having state elections right now, obviously Merkel doesn't want to upset her electorate since she is in a weak position especially with the zu Guttenberg scandal. In fact, if there is a rout, they might bring down the government.

Arguably, no party has been in a strong position since Schroeder allowed Germans to go into Kosovo. The two centrist parties are hemorrhaging votes to minor parties since which has weakened them.

 

ZORRO

8:14 AM ET

March 26, 2011

Go Angela!

Knowing that Germany will be the country to finance the aftermath of the Libyan adventure I can well understand why Germany avoided casting their vote.
The same goes for southern Europe. The winter has come and the grasshoppers are freezing, now they want the ants to bail them out.

Go Angela!

 

GLEMOH

9:01 AM ET

March 26, 2011

Nice Blog

Thanks for sharing this useful article that i like it , that make me comment on!
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ALEXBC

5:42 PM ET

March 26, 2011

"It already has the world's

"It already has the world's fourth largest economy, but power is more than GDP alone."

I am glad someone has the courage to say this, since most talking heads anymore act as if GDP size is exactly correlated to power. France is the 5th largest economy, the UK the 6th, but both possess far more geopolitical strength at present than Germany.

It seems like Germany, as a major account surplus nation with terrible demographics, has cast its lot with similar partners like China, Russia, and the "emerging markets" who buy some of its exports. You even say:

"Germans today think of their favorable trade balances as international engagement enough."

which is highly indicative of the mindset that pervades modern Germany. But Germany cannot run such balances forever: like China, it is scrambling to do so right now because it will not be able to do so later, once its population declines. In that regard, the "disparity" between Germany and France will ultimately work more in France's favor, due to that nation's more favorable demographics. But that does not mean that Germany can pull more weight than it does at present, which is almost none in terms of non-economic commitments abroad.

 

DENNIS_WITTIG

3:59 PM ET

March 28, 2011

geopolitical strength

Bombing a country with an obsolete air defense system is hardly a display of great geopolitical strength.

May be you should read up on the deals Germany does with plenty of countries in strategegly important regions of the world.

A good place to start would be germanforeignpolicy.com.

 

USARMYFAO

5:26 PM ET

March 28, 2011

@DENNIS_WITTIG Okay, if not

@DENNIS_WITTIG

Okay, if not Libya, then what other countries? I can think of one: Uzbekistan. Nice record, by they way.

 

GOLD STAR FATHER

5:18 PM ET

March 27, 2011

Angst

There is a growing group of Americans who are fearful of blinded American foreign policy seemingly able to acheive "dipolomacy" by weaponry alone. There is a growing group of Americans who are reseaching where we can go to escape frightful foreign policy and hope gone astray.
Germany heads many lists for those wishing to escape more war by the US government. What this article calls weakness in Germany's decision in the Libya matter, some of us see it as grand courage.

 

DAVELNAF

8:14 PM ET

March 27, 2011

Guilt

Good article; the author gives a broad summation of current German attitudes toward the world. Unfortunately—for the Germans, these attitudes are not going down well in the US. Because many Americans can claim at least some German ancestry Germany has, along with other prominent Europeans countries, been treated deferentially for many, many years. This allowed the Germans to go the same way as Japan and eschew large scale military expenditures. These days that expectation, while still somewhat realistic, may cause the Germans to miscalculate in the event of a future crisis along the lines of the Balkan conflict. The role of the US as the linchpin of NATO is already under serious reevaluation here. In order for a political deal to be struck regarding Entitlement pending military spending will also come under the axe. Germans would be well-advised to never again pull the bait and switch as they did recently with their four ships. Many Americans are in no mood to continue shouldering the burden for the defense needs of rich countries anywhere in the world. All they need is another excuse, like the one just mentioned, and NATO is kaput.

 

RKERG

10:31 PM ET

March 27, 2011

If Some Countries Want To Be The Policemen Of The World

...you can't blame Germany for letting them. Cruise missiles are incredibly expensive, and all of the so called defense industries are so intertwined with their governments that the cost of replacing used up armaments is always pricey. Germany, by staying out of the third American led conflict in the mid east in the last 10 years is going to remain solvent, thank you very much.

 

ADAM ONGE

11:45 PM ET

March 27, 2011

Merkel's and Germany's history

Germany was unified only recently and Angela Merkel actually grew up in the GDR (East German). Perhaps that explains a bit why Germany and Merkel (unlike USA and China, the hegemons of this world?) are reluctant to show "military prowess" especially overseas. The same is true of Italy and Japan, Germany's allies during the World War II.
By the way, CDU (Merkel's Party) lost in the provincial elections yesterday in Baden-Württemberg.

 

MINJUST KZ JOHNNY

7:53 AM ET

March 28, 2011

Anti-Germanism

I guess that criticizing Germany in any single occasion by US authors is due to the fear of its current economic strength and huge potential for economic development preserved in German people. It is rare to find something good said about this country by US in the media.
What is justification to say "Loans organized under the principle that creditors should be paid-in-full while taxpayers suffer, they argue, will serve as nothing more than a band aid, or worse, a recipe for weaker states to be permanently dependent on the stronger..."? Is the "aid" made by US to the whole world of the different nature?
Why in the earth can't Germany make its own decision so as to favour its own interests like the US or any other country does? If you say "now bomb this country, but we didn't work out the further plans yet", it does mean that any western country should go blindly after the US.
In fact, Germany wouldn't be able to go to such risks just because it's too democratic for that (My knowledge is based on my internship at their Parliament). It is hard to imagine the pressure made by different parties in Germany on decision-making. If the President of the US or France can make decisions to go to a war against the will of the majority of their population (claiming it is still democracy, because people can protest outside against the decision), the Germany can't do so. Then the Government would have to answer in front of whole indignation of political parties and people. Especially, it is difficult to accept "invitation" to bomb other country without at the same time receiving clear plans for future of that poor country. I can't even imagine the flood of indignation in Parliament as well as in the streets the Germant government would face in if it did go blindly to Libya (for example, the former President of the Germany resigned from his office only because of the word he uttered not in political correct way). For one country it is apalling mistake, for another it can be just words.

 

DENNIS_WITTIG

3:49 PM ET

March 28, 2011

Stuck in Cold War thinking!

First of all: What close allies? Why would the US, Great Britain and France be close allies to Germany in a post Cold War world? For old times sake? Come on, this is Geopolitics not a family reunion!

Why would we Germans vote with the US, GB and France?
In order to make the Russians cranky? Why, they deliver us energy every day of the year (and they are beginning to become a serious market for us).
In order to antagonize the Chinese? Why, they a buying more of our stuff every day of the year.

Only the Pentagon, Downing Street and notorious so called 'Transatlantiker" here in Germany like Klaus Naumann and Volker Rühe think that Germany should always side with its NATO allies. Well, I got news for you: NATO is dead! It just ain't buried yet. NATO is for folks who think that the Russians and the Chinese are their natural enemies. While this may be true for the US, it is certainly not true for Germany. We have completely different interests.

Germany is on the way to become the dominating power in Europe. Ironically, that what is criticized around the world, the 'amateuristic' handling of the Euro crisis, is the key to do that. By driving those weak countries like Greece and Portugal and Ireland to brink of bankruptcy we make sure that the only place they can go for money is in the end - well Germany. On top of that, it drove down the value of the Euro, making our exports cheaper outside the Euro zone. Well played, really. One currency to rule them all, one might say.

The author spent many words on the French giving the German government a hard time. I bet Berlin is shivering. Sarkozy is lamer than a lame duck. Which might be the main reason for that whole Libya thing. I mean that guy got embarrassed in Tunisia, slept during that Egypt thing and took the supposedly winning side in Libya. Than, o mon dieu, the winning side started loosing really badly. So to save the rest of his political face he just had to go in. Period. Why the US is going along with that, I don't know. Cameron had to go along, because Sarkozy pulled him across the table a couple of month ago, when they signed their new naval cooperation thing. Nicely played by Sarko.

Well, if that whole Libya thing turns out to help only the Iranians, which it will in the end, Sarkozy will loose the election to the right wing Marine le Pen (anti Moslem thing really takes off there). This in turn will make the French very lonely in European politics, leaving the field wide open for the cowardly angst-obsessed Germans to rule in Brussels.

Sounds to me that the Germans know their way around Geopolitics.

Countries don't have friends, they have interests.

 

DENNIS_WITTIG

1:40 AM ET

March 29, 2011

Interesting

And yet another market for our weapon systems.

 

JAYDEE001

6:28 PM ET

March 28, 2011

Stage Fright?

Germans are undoubtedly aware of their own history. The nation that spawned Kaiser Wilhelm and Adolf Hitler and touched off two world wars is now reluctant to join another "coalition" to go fight the USa's war in Libya. And that is somehow offensive to us?

Do we now criticize a country that perhaps carefully considers its position and decides - quite reasonably - to abstain from participating in our wars? Maybe we should consider if their refusal to send their young to die or be maimed in another war of our choice is not the wisest course of action. Or we might commend them for making their own decision about who they want to antagonize.

 

JAMES143

10:25 AM ET

April 24, 2011

Fright

German is one most financial country in the Europe.
If there is war in Libya?
Kindle conversion service

 

EVA DRABIK

7:16 AM ET

April 25, 2011

It is hard to imagine the

It is hard to imagine the pressure made by different parties in Germany on decision-making. If the President of the US or France can make decisions to go to a war sazeni against the will of the majority of their population (claiming it is still democracy, because people can protest outside against the decision), the Germany can't do so. Then the Government would have to answer in front of whole indignation of political parties and people. Especially, it is difficult to accept "invitation" to bomb other country without at the same time receiving clear plans for future of that poor country. I can't even imagine the flood of indignation in Parliament as well as in the streets the Germant government would face in if it did go blindly to Libya.