The war in Libya is a good war -- or at least, it should and could be. But it is certainly not a smart war and may well turn into a debacle. Bringing down Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi's tyranny would be a major strategic and humanitarian victory in the Middle East. That achievement would be even more stunning if a democratic government, brought to power by Libyans themselves, replaced Qaddafi. Although the Libyan rebels will undoubtedly need Western help -- and are rightly receiving it -- the credit will be theirs: The American Revolutionaries needed French arms to defeat the British, but French help did not tarnish their victory.
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Yet the chances of such favorable outcomes have been diminished by America's own president. Barack Obama, despite his forceful speech on Monday, March 28, is proving to be singularly ungifted in executive talent, let alone in the qualities that are needed in the leader of the Western alliance. Obama's Libya policy has been marked by an erratic, improvisational, and amateurish character. Already the administration is quietly warning that the war may drag on through the rest of the year, if not beyond it. While Obama might claim success early on, given the vague mission of protecting civilians, we should not be fooled into thinking that an ongoing civil war represents a victory for American arms. Indeed, a prolonged stalemate would be a disaster. Wounded, vengeful, but undefeated, Qaddafi would pose a greater danger than ever. He could resume his practice of terrorist attacks on Western targets, working perhaps through jihadi elements such as the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, hundreds of whose members he has released from prison.
A protracted civil war in Libya could have effects beyond its borders. It could lead competing outside powers -- France, Turkey, or even China -- to back different Libyan factions. U.S. forces and resources would be tied down even as the United States seeks to wind down in Iraq and defeat a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan. On the other hand, a premature exit would undermine American credibility in a region that already doubts Obama's steadfastness. Just as the administration's mishandling of last year's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico revealed its ineptitude in domestic matters, its mismanagement of the Libya intervention may become emblematic of its haplessness in foreign affairs.
The Obama administration's most glaring mistake in its approach to Libya is the central weight it has given to the United Nations. Hanging America's hat on U.N. approval has caused a mismatch between Obama's stated policy goal -- that Qaddafi must "go" -- and the limited means provided by U.N. approval for economic sanctions and civilian protections. Even at this early stage of the conflict, Obama's policy has created a large gap between U.S. strategic ends and U.N.-authorized means.
First, Obama has announced that in no circumstances will the United States introduce ground troops into Libya. Even if the United States was not planning to take that step, it was an unpardonable mistake for the president to have said so publicly. As simple international bargaining theory demonstrates, the threat of escalating a conflict by a party with superior resources should lead to a more favorable settlement. The threat of invasion might have convinced Qaddafi to leave power or his generals to take matters into their own hands. Obama's announcement to the contrary can only have strengthened Qaddafi's resolve to hang on. Taking the option of ground troops off the table at the very outset of hostilities helpfully informed an enemy of U.S. limits and undercut the coalition's position.
Furthermore, if America's strategic goal is -- as Obama proclaims -- the overthrowing of the Libyan regime, it may well need to introduce ground forces to do that, especially if NATO's use of air power remains highly circumscribed. (NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said that the alliance "will implement all aspects of the U.N. resolution. Nothing more, nothing less.") Air power is useful to a point: It can disrupt Qaddafi's logistics and prevent the movement of his forces across the vast desert spaces between Libya's cities. But it cannot take and hold ground. Air power is far more likely to succeed if combined with significant military operations on land -- as it was in the two Iraq wars. NATO's air power did not bring down Slobodan Milosevic in the Kosovo war. It may have forced his withdrawal from Kosovo, but even there it was supported by the land forces of the Kosovo Liberation Army. Without the use of significant land forces -- whether provided by better armed and trained rebels, more defectors from Qaddafi's side, NATO, or the United States -- stalemate rather than regime change seems the likely result. As Director of National Intelligence James Clapper warned, the meager forces fielded by the rebel government alone cannot overcome the superior firepower of the Qaddafi military.
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