Boots on the Ground

The Obama administration should prepare for the inevitable in Libya. To win this fight and prevent a coming anarchy, it's going to take a lot more than a no-fly zone.

BY JAMES M. DUBIK | APRIL 5, 2011

The way the United States and its allies have intervened in Libya has placed them on a dangerously slippery slope. Air power alone has not protected Libyan civilians, the declared objective in U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973, which authorized the military intervention. Nor have the rebels proved capable of making significant advances against Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces. To effectively enforce the Security Council resolution, the coalition would need to put combat air controllers, advisors, and trainers on the ground -- steps it appears unwilling to take. Where does that leave the coalition when it comes to developing a coherent war strategy? Mostly empty-handed.

I've learned a thing or two about using force to attain strategic aims in my 37 years in the U.S. Army. I've had command positions in three interventions -- Haiti, Bosnia, and Iraq. My last was as a senior commanding general in Iraq in charge of accelerating the growth of the Iraqi security forces during the surge period in 2007 and 2008.

From my standpoint, the reality is that Qaddafi is unlikely to give up even if his forces have stopped moving east and continue to battle in and around key cities. The coalition's choices are few, and none are good: 1) hold what it has and risk the rebels being cornered in some small portion of the country or ultimately forced to surrender at the point of Qaddafi's guns; 2) decide to take the steps necessary to actually enforce the writ of the Security Council resolution -- sending in the ground forces and supplying the rebels with weapons -- while increasing nonmilitary pressure on the Qaddafi regime; or 3) continue doing more of the same -- the minimum militarily.

Based on where things stand now, I believe that the second course has the highest probability of success in enforcing the Security Council resolution and bringing Qaddafi's regime to an end. But the coalition appears to have selected the third option, betting that they can muster the political will to maintain the no-fly zone and sustain the rebel force for however long it takes to pressure Qaddafi to leave. Anyone can argue the advantages and disadvantages of these three options, along with their likelihood of succeeding. But doing so misses the larger point.

Suppose the coalition does succeed. What happens once Qaddafi is gone, his regime collapses, and the rebels win? When such vacuums emerge, the results are unpredictable, at best. The world needs no further example of the costs of not preparing for the post-combat phase of an intervention than what it has seen in Iraq. A satisfactory endgame depends on the choices that Washington and its allies make right now.

Failure to do so, should Qaddafi fall, will likely condemn the country to a state of near anarchy -- in both the security and political realms. And this is when the dark side of human behavior is truly unleashed. I saw revenge killings in Bosnia and Iraq. Conflicts don't cease when arms are officially laid down.

There's no reason not to expect the same in a "liberated" Libya. President Barack Obama said in his March 28 speech that the United States and the world would not be able to stand by and watch "a massacre that would have reverberated across the region and stained the conscience of the world." By this logic, the United States would not be able to stand by and watch a similar massacre unfold in the "free Libya" it helped create. But contrary to the president's assurances, the only long-term political solution for Libya will require having Western troops on the ground. How would security otherwise be provided in a post-Qaddafi Libya? Not by air power and a few intelligence operators on the ground. Nor by the Libyan police and army, for they have committed crimes and atrocities against Libyan civilians on behalf of Qaddafi. And given that we don't really know the composition of the rebel force, can we expect it to behave with kindness and mercy?

The president himself has admitted that after 40 years of dictatorship, Libya is fractured and without civil institutions. Repairing this splintered society is first and foremost a task for the Libyan people, but a NATO-Arab peacekeeping force, in which the United States participates, should also play a role. Washington must plan for this contingency now, before it's too late.

Let me be clear; this is not a simple task. A peacekeeping mission is not necessarily peaceful. If the regime falls, former Qaddafi supporters may not simply yield power. In fact, they may carry on the fight by other means. Some could become insurgents. We saw this in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

There is little appetite for yet another large-scale ground commitment, but wartime realities have a way of forcing themselves on those involved. And by intervening in the first place, however noble the motivation, the coalition is already involved in shaping Libya's political fate. Once again, no one hopes that a post-Qaddafi Libya will be reduced to anarchy. But if that's what happens, the coalition has the same moral responsibility -- perhaps even more than before the intervention -- to not let Libyans succumb to chaos. And from a purely security perspective, nor could the West stand by if the pro-democracy rebel force it helped were eclipsed by the Islamic fundamentalist inclinations of some of its members.

Granted, this was not the type of limited conflict that Obama promised the American people. And there are plenty of reasons to focus on the immediate fight (the success of which is still in doubt) instead of Libya's long-term future. But Qaddafi has shown he is willing to use force to impose his will in Libya; is the coalition? This is what war is about, like it or not.

 SUBJECTS:
 

U.S. Army Lt. Gen. James M. Dubik (Ret.) is a senior fellow at the Institute for the Study of War.

RMHUDGINSJR

8:07 PM ET

April 5, 2011

Great Article

There in, however, lies the true problem. Our country has somehow become so egotistical that we now believe we know the one and only truly correct way to run a state. That being said, we cannot come together in our own country to a decision on what exactly is correct for us, yet we would like to tell others what to do. If we cannot come to a consensus in our own government, how can we tell others what is correct? This new "imperialism-by-extension" by trying to tell others how to setup their governments is just more of the same. All we have to do is look to the past imperialist nations and see our future. I am not anti-war, however, I am Kentuckian first, an American second, and a citizen of the world lastly.(Hopefully someone catches my Patrick Henry robbing) So before I worry about the people's troubles across the sea, I worry about the starving kids across the street. I worry first about the thousands in my state that can no longer feed themselves or their kids because we are sending our money overseas to make sure Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Libya have great infrastructures while our fall behind. I prefer to let them fend for themselves, and not send our boys to die for someone elses cause so that their children remain her fatherless and more and more it seems hopeless. So I would rather lose face on the international scene, and save face here at home. No troops, no advisors, no weapons for oil that we will never get, no meddling in others affairs. We had to do it, stand up for what we believe, now let them. My 42 ancestors who fought in our Revolution would surely agree.

 

HURRICANEWARNING

8:21 PM ET

April 5, 2011

Get out of Libya now! There

Get out of Libya now! There is nothing for us there, and there never was.

Here's what we should have learned as a nation over the past 20 years.
1: You cannot export American democracy, nor should you attempt to.
2: Nation building using the military is a ridiculous notion, and never should be attempted again.
3: "humanitarian intervention" using military power should ONLY be used when there are NO OTHER ALTERNATIVES, and our national interests require it somehow. We cant afford to help everyone. (Sorry Libya, you should be on your own. Stop complaining about NATO not doing enough, and be happy they're there at all.)
4: All liberal interventionists and neoconservatives should be hunted down and kicked out of Washington.

 

BRIANB

3:20 PM ET

April 6, 2011

Shame For This To Be Causality of US Government/Elite Hypocracy

You know, I am really sick of our government & our elites making regular people feel undue responsibility for financial problems when it was their own mistakes and corruption that caused it. The day that our leaders say "okay, we are going to stop using government programs to give away huge amounts of money to campaign supporters; make them more efficient; stop irresponsible practices on Wall Street and in corporations; and do something to make executive compensation fair to the company and the other employees", then I'll start saying "fine, if we still have financial problems afterward and fixing it means cutting employee salaries and benefits and shipping jobs overseas and eliminating bargaining rights for public employees... I'll listen". But until that happens I support any measure that helps regular people and am vehemently against anything that hurts regular people. The financial crisis is their fault, not ours and they should use their ill-gotten gains to fix it, not from the money we worked hard for. So overall if our elites can't do something for Americans, benefiting the people of Libya and the global ideal of "freedom and democracy" is a decent second choice. At least its a better use of the money than most things they could use if for.

 

WHISKEYPAPA

1:14 PM ET

April 6, 2011

Seems to me............

Seems to me that if we agree wkth the author's premise that if a country goes to crap, the USA has to put lots of boots on the ground, that can only end with the destruction of the United States.

No way can we get ground troops in quantity in all these failed/failing states. Where next? The Ivory Coast? Yemen? Back to Somalia? How about North Korea?

Surely we can just let these people stew in their own juices. The world won't come to an end if we don't act.

Walt

 

NEMESIS

2:21 PM ET

April 6, 2011

boots on the ground

Tthe ONLY boots on the ground in Libya from USA should be Obama and Samantha Power and Susan Rice an all those other commies in his administration
*spit*

 

SOMETHINGWAFFLES

4:02 PM ET

April 6, 2011

Disagree.

It's not odd at all for a man who knows how to use troops effectively (and my hat is off to you for that, sir) to see ground troops as the only solution.

the fact is that the rebels were doing just fine before Qaddafi was allowed time to assemble his units and make a counter attack with artillery and air and naval superiority. In equal battles, with momentum and surprise on their side, the rebels were doing just fine. NATO's leveling of the playing field allowed the rebels to regroup and gain some of what they'd lost. The only problem here was that we waited so long to do so. Now Qaddafi's forces are more unified, entrenched and likely to stalemate. Yet, the rebellion still established a provisional government in good faith. Former Qaddafi regular army units are still in reserve and we are still keeping the game even. Time is not on Qaddafi's side.

It does not benefit anyone, especially the Libyan people, for NATO forces to use ground troops. We made this mistake in Iraq when Bremer fired the Iraqi army. We should have toppled Saddam and left the Iraqis to establish their own government. Ground troops were necessary for the former, but the insistence that the US could govern a post-Saddam Iraq, for any reason, including a transition to Democracy, is inherently flawed. No, we cannot export American democracy. Its funny how we tend to forget our own founding was based on a war and our endurance was based on the Civil War.

No, War is not good and is not best for the people in the short term. We ourselves would not have allowed the French to impose on us their style of governance as terms of their intervention, nor should we force ours on other we assist. In the long term, however, a just war with good result, fought by a people with minimal outside interference, gives a government the legitimacy it's people need for stability. It gives a people a stake in their own country, something we Americans tend to take for granted. The won't soon forget who helped level the playing field against a tyrannical ruler and we'll have a friend for life.