A Friendly Little Dictatorship in the Horn of Africa

Why the world doesn't care about Djibouti's autocracy.

BY ALY VERJEE | APRIL 8, 2011

In the shadow of the extraordinary events under way in the Middle East, Djibouti's presidential vote was always going to struggle for attention. Indeed, the plight of this tiny country, sandwiched between Somalia and Yemen, remains almost completely ignored. But as the primary seaport to 85 million landlocked Ethiopians, the center of anti-piracy efforts in the Horn of Africa, and a reliable Western ally in the war on terror, Djibouti is a strategically vital country in an unstable neighborhood.

And with Nigeria's potentially tumultuous national vote coming this week, the relative quiet of the Djiboutian electoral process, which culminated with a ballot on April 8, might be considered a pleasant surprise compared with the electoral chaos of Africa's largest democracy. Djibouti boasts fewer than a million inhabitants -- voters in one district of the Nigerian city of Lagos outnumber its entire electoral roll.

But Djiboutian democracy is deeply flawed. The national parliament has not a single opposition legislator. The only national broadcaster, Radio-Television Djibouti, is the mouthpiece of the ruling party, slavishly reporting on the president's visits and appointments. There are almost no independent civil society organizations, and, with almost all possible employment controlled by the state, criticism of the regime is a bad career move. In this environment, this year's electoral campaign was little more than an exercise in hero worship of the incumbent president, Ismail Omar Guelleh.

Facing a two-term limit, Guelleh changed the constitution in April 2010 to allow him to stand for another five years in office. Guelleh came to power in 1999, succeeding his uncle, Hassan Gouled Aptidon, who served as Djibouti's first president since independence from France in 1977. His administration has brought trade deals and investment to Djibouti, but it has done little to address the country's massive unemployment, which by some estimates exceeds 60 percent. He ran again in 2005 and officially won 100 percent of the vote. Facing a single independent challenger and a complete opposition boycott of this year's vote, Guelleh's reelection is certain.

If the story ended there, Djibouti would be a sad if predictable tale of autocracy -- little different from Gabon, Syria, or Azerbaijan. With no natural resources to speak of, this microstate, more famous for its scuba diving than its diverse politics, is barely a footnote on the world agenda.

But to the West, and particularly the United States and France, Djibouti matters. It matters a lot. As the forward operating base of U.S. Africa Command, Djibouti's Camp Lemonnier is a friendly piece of real estate in the Horn of Africa, which includes Eritrea, Somalia, and Yemen. Approximately 2,000 U.S. troops are based at Lemonnier, in addition to the naval forces that periodically call at the port of Djibouti. With the nearest friendly African port located in Mombasa, Kenya -- 1,700 miles away -- the United States, NATO, and the European Union have no alternative to using Djibouti's harbor as a sanctuary to conduct anti-piracy operations.

SIMON MAINA/AFP/Getty Images

 

Aly Verjee was a long term elections observer in Djibouti from February to March 2011.

SALAROCHE

4:26 AM ET

April 9, 2011

Yemen in the Horn of Africa?

Mr. Verjee:

Good to read news about tiny Djibouti, but could you kindly correct your misstating that Djibouti is "sandwiched between Somalia and Yemen". Did you mean Eritrea instead of Yemen?

Also, the Horn of Africa doesn't include Yemen as you state in your writing. Yemen is on the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula, not in Africa. Anyone looking at a map of that region can see that.

 

ALY VERJEE

5:41 AM ET

April 9, 2011

RE: Yemen in the Horn of Africa

Thanks for your comment, Salaroche. Sandwiched may have not been the best verb to use, but at its closest, Yemen is less than 20 miles away from Djibouti. Yemen is as critical a neighbour for Djibouti as Eritrea.

The Horn of Africa is more than a geographic region. Culturally, socially and politically, Yemen has a great deal in common with Djibouti, and the long established trade and sea links between the two are in many ways as important as those that tie Yemen to its land neighbours on the Arabian peninsula.

 

SALAROCHE

1:18 PM ET

April 9, 2011

RE: Yemen in the Horn of Africa?

Mr. Verjee:

Thank you for your reply. Yes, there may be some important cultural, social and political similarities between Yemen and Djibouti, but Yemen remains part of the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti remains part of the Horn of Africa. Anyone referring to both as part of the same geographical area may be perceived as stretching their imagination a bit thin.

To elaborate, there may be a few cultural, social and political similarities between Spain and its former colonies in the Northern, Central and Southern regions of the American Continent, but we still refer to Spain as part of the European Continent and we refer to the former colonies in question as part of the American Continent.

True, the Gulf of Aden is quite narrower than the Atlantic Ocean, but so is the strait between Japan and South Korea, yet we never bundle those two countries together as part of the "Korean Peninsula", despite their cultural, social, political and even historical similarities.

Geographical regions are important for the obvious reasons, so that we may all know what part of the world we are talking about. People mixing them at will run the risk of being perceived as distracted or not totally aware of what they're talking about.

 

FELINE74

9:22 PM ET

April 10, 2011

Geography or politics?

Are there any ports in Puntland or Somaliland which could be upgraded for use in anti-pirate ops? If not, why not?

 

ALY VERJEE

6:52 AM ET

April 12, 2011

Good question, Feline74. A

Good question, Feline74. A substantial number of pirates operate from Puntland's waters, and are resupplied from bases on its shores. While Puntland's government has recently made some encouraging noises about anti-piracy cooperation, the depth of this commitment is untested, and Puntland's own coastal waters are still far from friendly. Puntland's ports lack the infrastructure and logistics to support foreign warships, and the prevailing local security conditions would for now rule out basing foreign military forces on its territory.

Somaliland is more promising - the country has just opened a new prison to house pirates. The port of Berbera could be an alternative to Djibouti in the long run, but it too lacks the necessary infrastructure, docking berths, storage capacity, facility security, reliable supply of fuel, etc. A huge investment in the port of Berbera would be needed to make it fit for military purposes. While some redevelopment of the port is currently underway and more is planned, this work is geared towards commercial operations, and would still be insufficient for naval operations.

 

FELINE74

1:25 AM ET

April 16, 2011

I'm no expert, but the problems don't sound insurmountable.

The main questions become:
a) How does the cost of upgrading those facilities compare with the cost- in fuel and in time off station- of basing anti-piracy forces in Djibouti and Kenya? and
b) Would local politics (in Puntland at least) allow the basing of foreign vessels and the needed fortifications to protect them?

Thank you for your time, sir.

 

ALY VERJEE

12:57 PM ET

April 19, 2011

Not viable alternatives

The answer to your second question is no, absent a radical change in the state of Puntland.

The cost of upgrading would be tens of millions of dollars at the minimum, and would take years. It would be a risky investment, without the security of knowing whether those facilities would be available for long term future use. In short, neither option is a compelling alternative for military planners, and both bring a number of other, serious drawbacks.

 

ALI MANN

7:47 AM ET

May 8, 2011

While Puntland's government

While Puntland's government has recently made some encouraging noises about anti-piracy cooperation, the depth of this commitment is untested, and Puntland's bwin own coastal waters are still far from friendly. Puntland's ports lack the infrastructure and logistics to support foreign warships, and the prevailing local security conditions would for now rule out basing foreign military forces on its territory.Somaliland is unibet more promising - the country has just opened a new prison to house pirates. The port of Berbera could be an alternative to Djibouti in the long run, but it too lacks the necessary infrastructure, docking berths, storage capacity, facility security, reliable supply of fuel.