Is Bahrain Creating a New Terrorist Threat?

By leaving no room for peaceful dissent, the Bahraini monarchy is creating the conditions for a violent revolt.

BY HUSSEIN IBISH | APRIL 14, 2011

On April 4, the Saudi cabinet issued a statement claiming that "peace and stability" had returned to Bahrain "as a result of the wisdom of its leadership in dealing with its internal matters and because of its people giving priority to national interests." Nearly three weeks earlier, the Saudi-dominated Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) had sent some 1,200 troops across the 16-mile causeway linking the two countries. Their official mission was to secure key government facilities from the thousands of protesters who had taken to the streets since Feb. 17. Unofficially, they were there to send a chilling, unequivocal message: Game over.

Since then, the government of Bahrain has instituted a total crackdown, beating teenagers in the streets, clamping down on press freedoms, and hauling online activists in for questioning. The daily demonstrations, overwhelmingly by Shiite protesters demanding equal political and civil rights, have indeed stopped. Yet, far from ensuring "peace and stability" in Bahrain, by apparently eliminating all other political options, the ruling Al Khalifa family has established the conditions for a potential outbreak of urban terrorism by Shiite extremists. Long-standing Gulf Sunni fears of a sectarian rebellion in Bahrain and the possibility of major Iranian interference in the island nation have informed an extreme overreaction that is developing all the signs of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. This can't end well.

It's virtually impossible to overstate the totality of the closure of political space in Bahrain. It didn't have to be this way. Initially, protests were not entirely sectarian and seemed amenable to reforms toward a constitutional monarchy. Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa attempted to initiate a productive dialogue, but the opposition was not forthcoming and hard-liners within the regime centered on his uncle, Prime Minister Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa, clearly won out. The more the regime responded to peaceful political demands with violence, the more both government and opposition extremists gained the upper hand.

Shortly after the GCC troops intervened, Shiite opposition figures from the mainstream al-Wefaq organization were arrested, along with more extreme sectarians such as Hassan Mushaima of its rival, al-Haq. (Mushaima has been categorical about the need for a full-blown revolution, saying, "The dictator fell in Tunisia, the dictator fell in Egypt, and the dictator should fall here.") On March 8, al-Haq and two other groups crossed a red line by announcing the formation of a "Coalition for a Bahraini Republic" -- a move that was understood, correctly or not, by Sunnis throughout the region as a commitment not only to the removal of the royal family but also the establishment of an Iranian-style Shiite "Islamic Republic." Between such provocative opposition statements and the GCC intervention, the crisis in Bahrain became irrevocably polarized along sectarian lines, with Sunnis and Shiites throughout the region taking sides with the government or the opposition based on religious identity.

The political crackdown is so complete it has extended to the nonsectarian and social democratic reformist organization al-Waad, whose moderate leader Ibrahim Sharif was also rounded up. In recent days, al-Waad has joined other groups in warning against Iranian interference in Bahrain, but the government's response has been to arrest another of its leaders, Abdulhamid Al Murad, and shut down its website and its two main offices.

Without question, however, the crackdown has largely focused on the Shiite opposition and community in general. The government and its allies have framed the protest movement as an Iranian plot, though to date there is scant evidence to demonstrate this. Opposition newspapers have been shut, though Al Wasat was reopened "under new management" after its main editors resigned, and journalists from that paper and others have been hounded and questioned by the authorities. Opposition leaders, both moderate and extreme, are in prison. Medical services have been targeted, injured patients rounded up in hospitals and often denied medical care, and doctors arrested. The Pearl Monument -- the focal point of the protests and the main landmark of the capital Manama -- has been demolished. A draconian emergency law was put in place that bans all protests, allows for arbitrary arrests, and imposes martial law for at least three months. At least 400 people have been arrested and at least 25 killed during the protests, as well as four deaths in custody that bear all the hallmarks of torture according to Human Rights Watch and other NGOs. A wide-scale crackdown on various economic sectors, including public employees and professional organizations, is under way, including mass firings, especially of Shiites. The big picture is extremely clear: There is no room for dissent of any kind in Bahrain anymore, above all if it comes from the Shiite majority.

NOAH SEELAM/AFP/Getty Images

 

Hussein Ibish blogs at www.Ibishblog.com.

JGENGLER

12:53 PM ET

April 14, 2011

Bye Bye, al-Wifaq

Perhaps we have our answer. It's difficult to resume dialogue when there's no one left to dialogue with.

"And Then There Were None":

http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/and-then-there-were-none.html

Justin

 

COUNTCHOCULA1011

1:04 AM ET

April 15, 2011

Terrorist Group?

I hardly think it's fair to say that a "terrorist" group would be formed. People violently casting off the shackles of an oppressive government that does not allow for their voices to be expressed in a civilized, peaceful manner is not what I would consider terrorism. But then again, the modern definition of terrorism has been reduced to "groups that violently resist the US or its Middle Eastern dictators," so I guess they would be terrorists.

 

MIRANDAMEYER

5:43 AM ET

April 18, 2011

Properly used, the word

Properly used, the word "terrorist" does not denote a value judgement. Terrorism is a tool, a method, not an agenda; to describe a group as "terrorist" is not to say its goals are illegitimate, but rather to describe its practices.

I do understand that that's not how the word is used by most people most of the time, but the more stringent definition is common in academic/analytic circles, and I'm betting that's the sense the author intended here. Don't forget, he referred to the Bahraini Shi'ites as having "legitimate and historical" grievances.

 

JGENGLER

6:10 AM ET

April 16, 2011

Typos?

The following statements are incorrect:

"Shiite opposition figures from the mainstream al-Wefaq organization were arrested, along with more extreme sectarians such as Hassan Mushaima of its rival, al-Haq."

No/few al-Wifaq members--and certainly none of its leaders--have been arrested since the GCC force arrival.

"On March 8, these two groups [al-Wefaq and al-Haq] crossed a red line by announcing the formation of a "Coalition for a Bahraini Republic"."

This is also incorrect. The Coalition for a Bahraini Republic does not include al-Wifaq but al-Haqq, the Bahrain Freedom Movement, and al-Wafa' al-Islami.

Justin

 

WGALLEGO680

4:45 PM ET

May 14, 2011

Is Bahrain Creating a New Terrorist Threat?

By leaving no room for peaceful dissent, the Bahraini monarchy is creating the conditions for a violent revolt. The following statements are incorrect: "Shiite opposition figures from the mainstream al-Wefaq organization were arrested, along with more extreme sectarians such as Hassan Mushaima of its rival, al-Haq. " No/few al-Wifaq members--and certainly none of its leaders--have been arrested since the GCC force arrival. "On March 8, these two groups [al-Wefaq and al-Haq] crossed a red line by announcing the formation of a "Coalition for a Bahraini Republic". "Without question, however, the crackdown has largely focused on the Shiite opposition and community in general. The government and its allies have framed the protest movement as an Iranian plot, though to date there is scant evidence to demonstrate this. Opposition newspapers have been shut, though Al Wasat was reopened "under new management" after its main editors resigned, and journalists from that paper and others have been hounded and questioned by the authorities. Opposition leaders, both moderate and extreme, are in prison. Medical services have been targeted, injured patients rounded up in hospitals and often denied medical care, and doctors arrested. The PearlMonument -- the focal point of the protests and the main landmark of the capital Manama -- has beendemolished treatment of diabetes. A draconian emergency law was put in place that bans all protests, allows for arbitrary arrests, and imposes martial law for at least three months. At least 400 people have been arrested and at least 25 killed during the protests, as well as four deaths in custody that bear all the hallmarks of torture according to Human Rights Watch and other NGOs. A wide-scale crackdown on various economic sectors, including public employees and professional organizations, is under way, including mass firings, especially of Shiites. The big picture is extremely clear: There is no room for dissent of any kind in Bahrain anymore, above all if it comes from the Shiite majority. " Terrorism is a tool, a method, not an agenda; to describe a group as "terrorist" is not to say its goals are illegitimate, but rather to describe its practices. I do understand that that's not how the word is used by most people most of the time, but the more stringent definition is common in academic/analytic circles, and I'm betting that's the sense the author intended here. Don't forget, he referred to the Bahraini Shi'ites as having "legitimate and historical" grievances.

 

WGALLEGO680

4:56 PM ET

May 14, 2011

Maybe there is a Threat

The mass arrests of hundreds of protesters is somewhat defensible in the name of trying to achieve stability, but the firing of over 1000 people from their government jobs is extremely unwise. Not only is it going to create more of a rift between the Sunnis and the Shiites, but those left unemployed with no prospects for work will only be thinking of ways to get back at the government. no more The article did start by attributing the claims to ‘victims, human rights advocates and a former member of parliament.’ The trouble is that none of the above has credibility within the ranks of the Bahraini establishment. Local human rights activists and ex-parliament members have been active demonstrators, so according to loyalists (and I heard this often) their accounts lack impartiality.