Twisting Assad's Arm

U.S. diplomats are always complaining they have no leverage over Syria. They're wrong.

BY ANDREW J. TABLER | APRIL 14, 2011

A little over two years ago, I had to leave my eight-year career as a journalist in Damascus because of a report I had written on the Syrian opposition that the regime didn't like. Since arriving in Washington, I've had the pleasure to share views on the Syrian regime with well-meaning U.S. officials charged with engaging my former home base. But it's become something of a mantra in Washington -- as the regime has perpetrated a brutal crackdown on opposition activists -- that the United States simply has no leverage in Syria.

But after sitting through countless discussions about President Bashar al-Assad and his Alawite-dominated government -- especially since the protests erupted in recent weeks -- it is now clear to me that the problem isn't a lack of leverage, but the strategy being used.

Assad rules through ambiguity and duplicity, and his speech on March 30, in which he blamed unrest sweeping his country on foreign "conspiracies" and refused to announce any specific reforms, indicates that he is not about to change his ways -- at least not without a push from the outside. Assad has spent the last 11 years promising political "reform," but has never got around to delivering it. This is a well-established pattern. He talks about peace with Israel while at the same time delivering Scud missiles to Hezbollah. He promises to keep his hands off Lebanon, but recently worked with Hezbollah to bring down the government in Beirut. He says, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, that he wants a nuclear-free Middle East, but stonewalls International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors investigating the rubble of his North Korean-designed nuclear program.

Applying pressure on Assad has worked in the past. U.S.-led multilateral pressure -- in the face of mass protests similar to those now sweeping Syria -- proved decisive in forcing him in April 2005 to end Syria's 29-year occupation of Lebanon. And U.S. sanctions on the Assad regime have also had an unexpected impact on its worsening finances and the ability of its members to invest internationally. While the Assad regime may have few or no investments in the United States, the "knock-on" effect of U.S. sanctions has deterred most foreign banks and companies from doing business with Damascus -- making lifting sanctions a key Syrian demand in talks with the United States. After all, what major international company would risk its U.S. business to make deals with an economy roughly the size of Pittsburgh? Why couldn't similar efforts work in the current crisis?

JOSEPH BARRAK/AFP/Getty Images

 

Andrew J. Tabler is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle with Syria.

F1FAN

8:29 AM ET

April 15, 2011

It won't happen.

A democratic, populous Syrian government would be bad news for Israel, so Washington won't act and will quietly hope that Assad hangs on.

 

DMOLONEY

10:10 AM ET

April 15, 2011

@f1fan

With all due respect what are you on about, arent you aware that both israel and the US have poor relations with syria.

 

DMAAK112

1:48 PM ET

April 15, 2011

Tabler and punishing Bashar Assad

Mr Tabler’s current employer, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is recognized as one of the strongest supporters of Israel, and aligned with the policies of the neocons. All but forgotten, the neocons had drawn up an ambitious game plan for both Israel and the US in dealing with the Middle East. The administration of Bush 2 provided them with the opportunity to implement one of their schemes--the splintering of Iraq. This hit list included Iran and Syria as well as Hamas and Hezbollah. During eight years of Bush 2, Israel clashed with Hamas and battled Hezbollah. Although badly damaged, both entities survived, and gained support from many Arabs. Heightening tensions by complaining about cross border violations, the US pushed Syria. American forces crossed into Syria and US planes violated its airspace, but Bashar avoided a conflict. Bush 2 applied every sanction it could muster against Syria, in fact it was so effective that, when the American financial bumble burst bringing hardship not only to Americans but worldwide, Damascus was unaffected because it had no dealings with banks and other institutions of the West. Now, Mr Tabler wants to increase Syria’s isolation--echoing other neocons like Abrams. Other than military action, the US has pressured Syria, and not just since Bush 2. One thing that is consistent is that Syria under the Assads have been isolated and banned, but its central importance in the area--remember what Henry Kissinger once said, “No war without Egypt, no peace without Syria.” As for reaching a peace treaty with Israel, Mr Tabler omitted listing Hafiz’s negotiations in 2000 and later Bashar’s with Olmert, both ended when Israel withdrew from completing a treaty. Presently, Netanyhu has sworn that he will not trade the Golan Heights for peace with Syria--so much for bringing in Bashar. If Mr Tabler really was interested about democracy in Syria, peace with Israel, etc, then he would advocate a US policy that sought to engage the Syrians. When talking about Egypt’s “Arab Spring,” it was noted that the army did not fire on the demonstrators--because of the influence America had built up within its ranks. Isolating Syria will only reinforce Bashar’s advisors who advocate stronger ties with Iran, and increase Damascus’ need for increase cooperation with Hezbollah.

 

BRAD ALLEN

1:55 AM ET

April 16, 2011

A Neocon misguided carrort and stick policy

Why is it that Necocons like Tabler always promote a stick policy when it comes to dealing with an Arab country and a carrot policy with comes to Israel.

This was a rhetorical question since everyone knows that Tabler, who represents a necon think tank with an all pro Israel agenda will always advise to use a stick againts an Arab regime thinking this helps Israel and the US.

As he does here, he promotoes additional economic sanctions and of course, using the Human rights committee to demonize the Syrians and isolate them.

Of course we don't hear the same garbage when it comes to dealing with Israel. Although Isarel has killed hundreds of Palestinians and continues to impose an inhuman blockade against Gazans, applying an apartheid policy against the Palestinians and Arab citizens and countless incursions into Syria and Lebanon killing hundreds of their civilians (don't forget Qana), with Israel Mr. Tabler, other Neocons and the AIPAC Puppets in the US congress always recommend the carrot as in, give them more aid, offer them more military hardware and support. And even though americans are suffering from economic downfall, Tabler, AIPAC, other Necocons and the congress would take the food out of American's mouth to give it to Isarel.

After years of this misguided policy, the Necons haven't learned their lessons yet. The Arab world is undergoing a major change and the end result will not be to America's or Israel's benefit. The genocide inflicted on Iraq, the ongoing mistreatment of the Palestinians will become a focal point in the near future and will be turned against Isarel and its backers in the West.

Somehow the Neocons have miscalculated that it is to Israel's benefit to keep demonizing and isolating Arab countries who don't tow the line behind America's one sided policy. As you can see, Egypt has fallen and although I am certain no Egyptian will want to go back to a state of war, they will not sit idle watching next time Israel decides to kill more Palestinians or invade Lebanon. The days of Mubarak and his collusion with Israel have expired. The opportunity to achieve peace in the Middle East has been squandered away by years of Israeli greed and bullying and American misguided policies. A new Middle East will have new alliances with Turkey, Iran and inevitably, Pakistan. With this, Israel's military advantage and Nuclear deterrance will be gone.

The years of misguided carrot for Isarel and stick for the Arabs policy will come back to haunt the Americans, lead by the Neocons, as they sit and watch while the Middle East and the whole region shed itself from old leaderships and form new alliances that will not include America.

 

SKANDERBEG

6:30 AM ET

April 16, 2011

I love the Assadniks who travel these pages

searching, searching for any criticism of their dictator.

"Neo cons!" "Zionists!"

For forty years now the Syrian people have been living and dying in a prison led by a sadistic and cruel Warden. Yet the Assadniks who are on the outside seem only able to point and laugh at the prisoners, while lamenting and defending the need for the prison. All while much of the world and, indeed most of these "critics" of America and Israel live full and prosperous lives outside of the prison - a prison that has no purpose of any kind other that keeping a sick corruption intact and perfectly innocent Syrians in fear and despair.

Anyone defending Assad is no friend of the Syrian; they are the groveling minions of a dictator.

 

ELIAS KHOURY

7:46 AM ET

April 16, 2011

principles anybody?

What the US should do, is apply a same set of rules to ALL countries that are ran by dictators of some sort, and experiencing activism by the people.
The US foreign policy has been managed by "interests" which is OK, because economics drive the world: a strategy related to oil supply, plays, for example, on decision taking. The strategic interest in defending Israel influences decisions...

But the US has to uphold ethical and moral leadership in defense of democracy and human rights and freedom. Having a conflict of interest because the protests are in Egypt, or Bahrain or maybe one day Saudi Arabia is poor policy.

Ultimately, Syrians will decide the future of Syria, US policy, from within or with the UN should be to protect the people ... and basically, give them a chance.

 

DEBRA785

8:15 AM ET

April 16, 2011

Why US policy toward Syria has been ineffective

The problem has been that the US continues to treat the Assad Regime like it was a government of a sovereign state. This assumption creates certain expectations of how heads of state respond to certain incentives, positive or negative. Despite years working from this operative assumption from which flows the policy of applying positive or negative incentives in an attempt to alter the behavior of the Assad Regime, US efforts have been largely ineffectual.

This means that we should go back to the operative assumption and come to the realization that it is wrong. The Assad Regime is not a government of a sovereign state, but it is a mafia-like operation masquerading of a government of a sovereign state. If we are to deal with the Assad Regime, first we must realize what it is since that fact determines all others.

As a mafia-like operation, its prime objective is not to govern, but it the survival of the regime by any and all means. It is not ideological unless it needs to be in order to survive. It is not inherently anti-Israel, anti-American, anti-Iranian, or anti-anything. It will be for or against any other country and any other interest which serves its primary directive of survival of the regime.

The only way to affect the behavior of the Assad Regime is to threaten its survival. And it has immunized itself from threats to its survival by selling the idea that the only alternative to it in Syria is the Moslem Brotherhood which would put an Islamic Fundamentalist regime on Israel's northern border.

So, within that zone of safety created by eliminating all moderate alternatives, no external power will threaten the survival of the regime. This is the construct and many in the west have bought in to it.

This leaves only the threat from inside, the domestic threat. It is there and it is real and those of us on the outside have our heads buried in the sand if we think that there is no chance that these guys will not succeed in weakening the crime syndicate that operates Syria and upon which we have wasted so much time as we play to the illusion created for us by Assad that he heads a government.

 

KRIFAI

1:52 AM ET

April 20, 2011

A typical lack of understanding

Mr. Tabler indicated that he lived 8 years in Syria. It is obvious that those 8 years taught him nothing about the country and its priorities. Mr. Tabler refers to "destructive policies" of the Assad regime in the region but neglects to reference that these policies are highly respected and supported within Syria and the Arab and Islamic worlds at large; because they are viewed as counter measures to the US and Israeli destructive policies in the region.

Oh, and while pushing the need to "shine a light" on human rights violations in Syria, maybe Mr. Tabler can start pushing for the need to shine the light on HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATION IN GAZA AND THE WEST BANK to name few. Maybe then we can start taking his advises more seriously.